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000
FXUS63 KDVN 102347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A TROF RAN FROM THE MACKINAC STRAITS INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON INDICATE
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KMKG TO A WEAK LOW IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S WITH
SOME 50S IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS BEHIND THE
FRONT WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

SOME SPRINKLES OR EVEN A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF GRASS FIRES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
IOWA.

AFTER SUNSET...DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

ON FRIDAY THE DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IF DEW POINTS DROP MORE THAN EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF GRASS FIRES.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AFTER A DRY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...SAT THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING AHEAD OF ORGANIZING UPSTREAM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHWEST GRT
LKS TROF/SFC WAVE COMPLEX. STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF PRECIP/SHOWERS SKIRTING ACRS THE NORTHERN CWA SAT
MORNING...BUT THEN COULD SEE MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY MAINLY DRY.
FCST SOUNDINGS LOOKED CAPPED AS WELL. EXTENT OF CURRENTLY PROGGED
WARM DRAW AND MIXING SUGGEST WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ON SAT...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND ONGOING DRY
CONDITIONS TO MAKE FOR MORE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SFC DPTS/ADVECTION
INCREASE IN LLVL RETURN FLOW PROBABLY AGAIN BEING OVERDONE BY THE
MODELS BUT THEY SHOULD STILL MAKE IT TO THE 50S BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BUT THE CONCERN IS FOR DRY DOWN-MIXING EATING AWAY AT DPT
INCREASE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. LLVL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO
BI-SECT SW KS...IA AND INTO NORTHWEST WI FROM SW-TO-NE BY SAT
EVENING AND ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR RETURN FLOW CONVERGENCE. BUT
IGNITION ZONE SHOULD BE ELEVATED AS H85 MB HIGHER THTA-E FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE REGIONS TAKE SHAPE FROM ACRS THE CENTRAL KS/NEB BORDER
REGIONS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN SAT EVENING. AND
ELEVATED MCS OR TWO MAY TAKE SHAPE IN THESE AREAS AS SAT EVENING
PROGRESSES AND FEED DOWN ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN PART. MAIN COMPLEX MAY TAKE PLACE ACRS SE NEB/NE KS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL IA AND FEED EAST SOUTHEASTWARD MAINLY MISSING MOST OF
THE CWA. BUT SECONDARY SYSTEM OR STORM CLUSTER ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA
INTO SW WI EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ISOLATED SVR
STORMS PRODUCING MAINLY HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT EVENING. IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS CLUSTER AND NOT INTERRUPTED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...A POTENTIAL OF 0.50 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN NORTH OF I80 BY 12Z
SUNDAY. CONVECTION OUTFLOW AND SYSTEM PUSH ITSELF MAY LAY OUT
BOUNDARY BISECTING THE CWA FROM NE-TO-SW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL TRYING TO
RESOLVE BROAD PHASING OF DIGGING WESTERN CANADA UPPER WAVE ENERGY
AND SOUTHERN STREAM CA TROF THROUGH SUNDAY. ...FLATTENING FLOW TO THE
LEE OF THIS PROCESS ACRS THE MIDWEST. AFTER THE SAT NIGHT ACTIVITY
DECREASES SOME FOR A POSSIBLE LULL FOR FIRST PART OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PHASING OF
THE NEXT L/W UPPER TROF COMPLETED BY MIDDAY WITH LEE SIDE LLVL
CYCLOGENESIS BLOOMING ACRS THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS...INITIAL WAVE
EJECTING OUT ALONG THE FRONT ACRS CENTRAL MO BY SUNDAY EVENING.
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL VARYING ON STRENGTH AND PROPAGATION
OF SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS STILL THERE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT DEF ZONE PRECIP EVENT FOR THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MON MORNING. ELEVATED RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER POSSIBLE...AND THEN THE WATCH WILL BE ON FOR DYNAMICAL/TOP-
DOWN COOLING AND LLVL IN-WRAPPING COLD CONVEYOR ENOUGH FOR PRECIP
TYPE ISSUE IN THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LATEST
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET AT
LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HRS SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MON...THIS ON
TOP OF WHAT EVER OCCURS SAT NIGHT. SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HWY 30 LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF
THE ECMWF HAS IT/S WAY. WARM GROUND AND SNOW INTENSITY TO BE BIG
PLAYERS IF ANY SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE AND RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF
IT WILL MELT...WET DUSTING ON ELEVATED SFC/S UNTIL MID MON MORNING
DIURNAL PROCESSES KICK IN. THE 12Z GFS WHISKS MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TO THE EAST BEFORE IT CAN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW IN THE DVN CWA.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS MON MORNING...THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE RAW AND
COOL WITH NORTHWEST BREEZES AND HIGHS HELD IN THE 40S UNDER
ADVECTING POST-SYSTEM COLD POOL. FOLLOWING RIDGE WITH ANY KIND OF
CLEAR OUT COULD MEAN WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...CHILL DOWN AS THE UPSTREAM CORE L/W
TROF SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND PASSING LLVL COLD POOL RE-ENFORCED ON TUE...
TUE AGAIN MAY HAVE HIGHS WELL DOWN IN THE 40S WITH INSTABILITY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE NORTH. ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED IF CLOUDS CAN
CLEAR...ANOTHER NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL TO DIP DOWN IN THE 20S.
SOME TEMP REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S ON WED....BUT THE NORTH MAY STILL
BE HELD IN THE 40S. FLATTENING FLOW RELOADS OFF TO THE WEST WITH
TROFFINESS ACRS THE GRT BSN...INCREASING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
PROCESS TO HELP TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT
THU. CONVERGENT/PRECIP FOCAL POINT IN THE FORM OF A WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL LOOK TO SET UP TO THE NORTH ACRS MN AND WI
LATE WED INTO THU FOR A CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FCST THOSE DAYS...BUT
NEXT FRI MAY BE DIFFERENT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
12/00Z. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY MID EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS