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000
FXUS63 KDVN 290811
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND A CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 50S WITH FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 50S POSSIBLY EN ROUTE TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGS IN SOME
SPOTS. 00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS WITH LARGE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH OUR REGION
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MID CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WI AND DRIFT ACROSS SKIES IN NE/E
CWA EARLY THIS AM. OTHERWISE... DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AM
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TODAY LEADING TO MORE BLOCKAGE OF
SUN AT TIMES GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO YSTDY TO DIVE SOUTH
TDY MORE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN WI INTO NORTHEAST IL
WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
SKINNY CAPE OF 200-400+ J/KG. AREAS NE/E OF QUAD CITIES BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND BETTER INSTABILITY APPEAR MOST FAVORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD PM SHOWER... ALTHOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF WEAK SHOWER SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES SAY ROUGHLY
W/SW OF KCID-KBRL AXIS BEING CLOSE TO CHANNELED VORT AXIS FROM NW-CNTRL
IA WHICH PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS YSTDY. DEEP MIXING TO 800 MB OR JUST
ABOVE YIELDS WIDESPREAD HIGHS TDY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... WITH FEW
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE NORTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIMITED
SOLAR INSOLATION EXISTS.

TNGT... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF HEATING... THOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT STRAY SPRINKLES
WITH MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT NE/E OF QUAD CITIES ATTENDANT TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BEST PROSPECTS FOR STRAY SHOWER OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESIDE IN
EASTERN WI AND NORTHEAST IL CLOSER TO VORT MAX. IN GENERAL EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TNGT WITH AGAIN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING NORTHEAST
CWA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA TO FAVOR
SIDING AT OR JUST BELOW COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE-RIDERS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN VINYL RECORD...WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS AROUND 60. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MID 80S/MID 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEAR SLIM IN THIS BLOCKED PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS THEY WERE KEYING ON FRIDAY TO HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCES BUT THE
00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...SO I HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE WEATHER MAY GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WE GET IMPACTED BY RIDGE
RIDERS. BUT THAT`S A WEEK AWAY OR MORE SO TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO AT
LEAST MVFR RANGE AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY THE INCLUSION OF FOG IN THE TAFS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS