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000
FXUS63 KDVN 212352
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
652 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Quasi-stationary front undulating generally west-to-east acrs
central IA and lingering outflow boundaries on northern fringe of
ongoing heat dome, to be focus of occasional rounds of severe and
heavy rain producing thunderstorms through at least Saturday
morning. Northwest flow still on track to bring about a reprieve
from the storms, heat and humidity by late Sunday and into early
next week. Until then, severe storms and flooding rains possible for
select areas of the CWA, and resultant river flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Tonight...Will keep ongoing heat headlines going through Saturday
evening with lag in cooler, less humid post-frontal air not coming
until late Sunday. But with the ongoing caveat that temporary bouts
of storms, cooled outflow and convective debris will produce some
passing breaks in the excessive heat.

Earlier issued afternoon AFD update still on track, and watching
upstream convection acrs western into central IA for further
development and eventual convective watch coming. Outflow boundary
from passing showers/storms to the north and northeast, colliding
with main quasi-stationary front and holding it up from near Sioux
Falls...down to along the I80 corridor in the local area. This opens
up at least the north half of the fcst area, if not more, to
thunderstorms complexes from late this afternoon and into the
evening. Enhanced severe storms possible along the outflow boundary,
along with earlier concerns of bowing segments possibly producing 70
to 80 MPH winds at the apex. With more than one upstream
MCV/circulation seen on Visible and LLVL water vapor imagery, there
could be several "waves" of storms tonight. Also, concerns of
slightly elevated storms firing on nose of nocturnal LLJ up and over
lingering boundaries, then propagating along the same paths for
localized swaths of very heavy rainfall. Current indications suggest
that areas most susceptible for this phenomena are along and north
of the current instability gradient/I80 corridor. Thus, like
mentioned with earlier update, have gone ahead and expanded the
Flash Flood Watch for tonight for areas generally along and north of
I80. Could see localized swaths of 3-5 inches in these areas or even
more if the above mentioned training scenario unfolds and persists
longer into Sat morning.

Saturday...Just see some lingering non-severe storms or showers along
the front in the southern to eastern CWA for portions of Sat morning
and midday, then the front lights up mainly along and south of the
CWA later Sat afternoon and evening. Cool and less humid air lag
even behind the front will make for one more hot day.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through next Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Quick summary of the longer term, cooler and drier conditions still
on track for Late Sunday into early next week. Highs in the 70s to
low 80s for Monday and possibly Tue. Then warmer temps to try and
build back toward the area later in the week. Precip chances also
return by Wednesday night or Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Episodes of MVFR conditions possible at the northern 3 terminals due
to thunderstorms until 22/03Z. Skies will slowly clear with VFR conditions
after 22/03Z with winds shifting to the west and northwest by daybreak
with fair skies as high pressure moves in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Maquoketa River and Wapsipinicon River... Currently below action
stage. Forecast is for significant rises and the possibility of
minor to moderate flooding developing within the next 24 hrs, but
this is largely based upon WPC 24 hr rain amounts which is 1.5 to
over 2 inches across these basins. Have issued a flood watch for
Independence, Manchester and Maquoketa since these sites based on
forecast rainfall are shown to go above flood stage within the next
24 hrs, and less than 50 percent confidence due to uncertainty on
rainfall amounts. Flooding is also shown at Dewitt and Anamosa Shaw
Rd, but these are not shown to go above FS until late in the weekend
thus far enough out and low confidence precludes anything from just
mention in AFD right now.

Rock River... Flooding is occurring along much of the Rock River
except for Moline due to routed water from recent heavy rainfall.
Additional heavy rainfall of 1.5 to 2.5 inches was used in the
generation of afternoon forecasts, which results in major flooding
at all 3 forecast points in our HSA... (Como, Joslin and Moline)
cresting late in the weekend or early next week based on this
additional rainfall. If this widespread heavy rain does not
materialize, then forecasts crests will be much lower.

Pecatonica River... River is approaching FS, and is forecast to
crest into moderate flood stage by the middle of next week.
Confidence is greatest on reaching minor flood stage, and should the
heavy rainfall not materialize over the next 24 hrs then the crest
will be lower.

Mississippi River... Rising tributary rivers over north of I-80
will likely lead to rises on the Mississippi River mostly next
week and especially from Quad Cities on southward. At this time
most are significant within bank rises or near action stage, and
these rises too are dependent on axis of heavy rainfall over the
24+ hrs.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for Benton-Buchanan-
     Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Iowa-Jackson-Johnson-Jones-
     Linn-Muscatine-Scott.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Cedar-Des
     Moines-Henry IA-Iowa-Jefferson-Johnson-Keokuk-Lee-Louisa-
     Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Benton-Clinton-Jones-
     Linn.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for Bureau-Carroll-
     Henry IL-Jo Daviess-Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Whiteside.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Hancock-
     Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-Rock Island-Warren.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Bureau-Putnam-
     Whiteside.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Clark-
     Scotland.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Nichols
HYDROLOGY...McClure