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000
FXUS63 KDVN 290832
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
232 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MINNESOTA INTO MISSOURI WITH
VERY WEAK LOWS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

THE EXTENDED PROVIDES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CONFIDENCE
POPS...AND COULD EASILY BE MISS-INTERPRETED AS A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD
OF WET OR SNOWY WEATHER. BY ALL SIGNS TONIGHT...IT IS IN FACT A
PERIOD OF WHERE WE CANT RULE OUT LIGHT MEASURABLE PCPN...WITH ONLY A
MODEST THREAT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEEING MORE THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LIQUID QPF.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAYS LARGER STORY SHOULD BE THAT ALL AREAS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE FREEZING. FOR MOST SNOW FREE LOCATIONS THIS WILL
MEAN A PLEASANT 40 TO 48 DEGREE DAY BOTH DAYS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...INCREASING WAA ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
TO DEVELOP...BUT MOISTURE APPEAR VERY LIMITED...AND AT LEAST
INITIALLY...SATURATION SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE
CWA BOARDER INTO WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUED WARM FRONTAL PROCESSES WILL EITHER
CREATE BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN...OR POSSIBLY BOUTS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NEARLY ALL MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WITH PLENTY
OF DRY AIR ALOFT. I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THIS TURN INTO
A CLOUDY AND DAMP PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OR SNOW. HOWEVER...UNTIL THAT IS RESOLVED WITH HOPEFUL
MODEL CONSISTENCY...WE ARE LEFT WITH THIS FORECAST OF BLENDED LOW
POPS FROM VARIOUS MODELS. SHOULD MORE DEEP MOISTURE BE ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM...A STRONG CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...HOWEVER THIS PROCESS SEEMS MORE LIKELY WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...AND WELL SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS TO WHETHER WE SEE A MAJOR COLD DUMP BEYOND THE
LATE WEEK STORM...THAT IS CERTAINLY A GOOD BET. HOPEFULLY...A LACK
OF SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT THE EXTREME NATURE OF WHAT MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGH TO THE
EAST...WINDS WILL PICKUP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...DLF