


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
117 FXUS63 KDVN 262358 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY 658 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect for a portion of the area this afternoon into the early evening. Additional heat headlines may be needed this weekend, particularly on Sunday. - Strong to severe storms remain possible this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being the main threat. - With a wet pattern across the area and a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall, area rivers are expected to see rises. Refer to the hydrology section for more information. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Hot and humid conditions were observed across the area, with heat indices around 2 PM this afternoon around the 95 to 102 degree range, and temperatures hovering around 90 degrees for most locations. We are keeping an eye on a line of showers and storms that have developed over central Iowa ahead of a cold front that will eventually cross our area by this evening into the overnight hours, albeit in a decaying fashion after midnight tonight. Before then, some air mass convection is progged by some of the CAMs late this afternoon as instability builds to the tune of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Although deep-layer shear appears to be quite meager (<25 knots), steep low-level lapse rates and high Pwats to around 2 inches should support the threat for locally strong winds due to wet microbursts. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather for areas along and northwest of a Sigourney Iowa to Galena Illinois line, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms elsewhere in our CWA. Along the Highway 20 corridor, low-level shear appears to be stronger due to a more veering wind profile instead of a uni-directional profile farther south, so a brief tornado can`t be ruled out across our far north. Friday looks to be largely dry, with the line of showers and storms diminishing to only a few showers by sunrise. CAM guidance suggests very little in the way of additional activity along the front as it sweeps through the CWA. Also, the front should help usher in some cooler conditions, with high temperatures warming to the upper 70s north to the middle 80s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Friday night through Monday Assessment...Very high (>90%) of heat and humidity continuing. Heat and humidity builds back in for the weekend with Sunday being the hottest day. It is possible for heat indices to once again warm to above 100 degrees F as temperatures warm to near 90 degrees with lower to middle 70s dew points. LREF exceedance probabilities of heat indices of 100 degrees or more are around 10 to 30% - something to keep an eye on. With the heat dome back into the area for Sunday, the question becomes will a weak upper level disturbance approaching the area generate diurnal convection. The model consensus suggests this with a 30 to 50% coverage Sunday afternoon/evening. An approaching front on Monday (associated with the pattern change aloft) raises questions regarding the rain potential. Several deterministic model runs suggest very little in the way of rain. However, there are several members from the respective ensemble runs that generate rain. Thus, the model consensus is biased toward the ensembles but the areal coverage for any rain is only 20-40%. Monday night through Wednesday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on near normal temperatures. Low (<25%) confidence on rain chances. The pattern change to west-northwest flow aloft will help keep temperatures around or slightly above normal. With the heat dome suppressed southward, the more tropical moisture that would fuel storms is not present. Thus, the deterministic model runs and nearly all of their respective ensemble members have dry conditions Monday night through Wednesday. However, there are weak disturbances in the flow aloft moving through the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Thus, we cannot fully rule out the possibility of a rogue storm developing during the diurnal heating cycle on Tuesday and Wednesday. If this were to occur, areal coverage would be under 10 percent. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 A line of thunderstorms continues to approach the area ahead of a cold front and will affect the terminals this evening and overnight. Some storms could be strong to severe with gusts to around 40 kts possible along with vsby reductions with heavy downpours. MVFR cigs remain possible behind this front and line of storms through tomorrow morning. Cigs then look to clear out around tomorrow afternoon. Winds will shift behind the front to being out of the northwest for tomorrow. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schultz LONG TERM...Schultz AVIATION...Hickford (PAH)