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000
FXUS63 KDVN 021815
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1215 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

WIND CHILL VALUES GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
JUST A FEW SITES CURRENTLY AT MINIMUM CRITERIA OF -20. AS RESULT
HAVE LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE...FOR NOW. ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND WILL ADDRESSING THAT WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...COULD BE CLOSE SHAVE FOR SOME SNOW IN FAR SOUTHERN
CWA AS NEXT ROUND OF FRONTOGENETICAL SNOW ENHANCED BY EJECTING
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE SKIRTS MAINLY SOUTH OF CWA... ROUGHLY
NEAR/SOUTH OF CHILLICOTHE MO TO QUINCY IL LINE. DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER INCREASING IN DEPTH ON OCCASIONAL GUSTY NORTH WINDS
SUPPORTIVE OF KEEPING POPS IN JUST THE CHANCE CATEGORY VERY FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SNOW HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. THE 00Z ECMWF...GEM
AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SNOW MAY RIPPLE BACK NORTH WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT ARRIVING OUT OF THE PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS AND NAM KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO LOOKS MORE LIKELY AS THE DEPTH OF THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY
CONFLUENT OVER THAT REGION.

HAVE THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL UPDATE
FORECAST WORDING FOR LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
REDEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
AREA OVER EASTERN IA LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...AND AT 6 AM IT WAS
OUTLINING WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -19 TO -25.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

LARGE AXIS OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A
140 KT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 3 AM...ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KEOSAUQUA THROUGH GALESBURG TO PRINCETON IL. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH WAS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS HIGH WERE IN THE
SUBZERO TEENS AND 20S...WHILE IN THE LOCAL AREA...COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAD JUST PUSHED TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO IN VINTON AND INDEPENDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON HEADLINES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND UNSEASONABLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL FORCING
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRUSH THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WILL THUS KEEP LIGHT SNOW AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING
ACROSS OUR NE MO COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL COUNTIES UNTIL
NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS LIMITED TO FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES IN THE
EXTREME FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA AND REPLACED MUCH
OF IT WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL NOON. FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DRIVE WIND
CHILLS BELOW -20 FOR PERIODS THIS MORNING NW OF A LINE FROM
FAIRFIELD THROUGH IOWA CITY TO GALENA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING OVER THE
AREA CURRENTLY RECEIVING SNOW UNTIL 12Z...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FOR
EARLY MARCH SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A GENERAL NORTH
TO SOUTH CLEARING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD
FRESH SNOW COVER AND COLD ADVECTION ON NORTH WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 2
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH IS ON THE
WARMEST SIDE OF LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...THE IN-BUILDING
ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL IA BY 12Z. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS IN A 5 TO
10 MPH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
PROVIDING A WIND CHILL THREAT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME PREVENTING A
TEMPERATURE CRASH THAT THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER WOULD
OTHERWISE ALLOW IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE TOWARD
MORNING...HOWEVER...AND KEPT OUR FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH LOWS
ROUGHLY FROM AROUND -18 NW TO -10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS
WELL ABOVE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE THAT PUSHES -20 OR COLDER
INTO THE NW. OUR FORECAST LOWS WILL THREATEN MARCH 3 RECORDS...AND
ALSO PUT MARCH 2 RECORDS AT RISK DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
DROP THIS EVENING. BOTH THESE AND THE ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH
CAN BE FOUND IN THE SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION. WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED
FURTHER HEADLINES...ALONG THE LINES OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY A WARNING FOR TONIGHT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -25...CLOSING IN ON -30 TOWARD
MORNING WHEN THE ACTUAL WIND BEGINS TO DROP OFF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES.  WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE AT
OR BELOW -20 FOR FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING.  THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHWEST.  HIGHS MONDAY WILL IN BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.  LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW RISE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MID TO LATE WEEK
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN.  HAVE
CONTINUED SOME BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS FOR SNOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 20S FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS FOR LOWS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A WARM UP AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
30S AND 40S POSSIBLE FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH WITH RAIN SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.  HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 2...

BURLINGTON..... -4  IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -13 IN 1912
DUBUQUE........ -12 IN 1890
MOLINE......... -9  IN 1913

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 3...

BURLINGTON..... -3  IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -9  IN 1913
DUBUQUE........ -10 IN 2002
MOLINE......... -8  IN 1884

MARCH RECORD LOWS...

BURLINGTON..... -13 03/05/1960
CEDAR RAPIDS... -20 03/01/1962
DUBUQUE........ -20 03/01/1962
MOLINE......... -19 03/06/1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...SHEETS