Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 220909
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
409 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER ONTARIO WITH AREA REMAINING FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW. PASSING DISTURBANCE WAS WRAPPING
IN SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF CWA WITH ISOLD SHOWERS
OVER FAR NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
SNOWFLAKES THOUGH NO REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ALTHOUGH SEVERAL
SITES HAVE REPORTED SNOW INTO SOUTHERN WI. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AREA REMAINS IN LINGERING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PLAINS
RIDGE AND CANADIAN LOW RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND
GUSTY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S AREAWIDE AT 3 AM WHICH
IS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP DOWN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF
THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN EXPECT DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST... WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AS DRY SLOT UPSTREAM ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ROTATES THROUGH. SOUTHERN CWA EXPECTED
TO BE SUNNY/MOSUNNY ALL DAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT COOLER TODAY IN
MANY AREAS WITH CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT PASSING OVER THE REGION... AND
DEEP MIXING NEAR/ABOVE 750 MB PER SOUNDINGS BROUGHT TO SURFACE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS WITH SOME UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60F POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH. EXPECT BRISK TO WINDY CONDITIONS YET AGAIN
WITH DEEP MIXING... BUT WITH WINDS A BIT LESS ALOFT ANTICIPATE THEM
TO BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL 15-30 MPH.

TONIGHT... EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE CORE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS LOOK TO RESIDE JUST WEST OF CWA FROM WESTERN MN
THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHERN MO. THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND FROST...
WHILE ANTICIPATE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FRICTION ELSEWHERE WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TO PATCHY FAVORING MAINLY SHELTERED
OR LOW LYING AREAS. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING TEMPS WITH DRY AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
MANY AREAS. DO NOT FORESEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS AT OR BELOW 28 DEGS OR EVEN
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR LONG ENOUGH DURATION FOR RISK OF DAMAGE THUS HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HEADLINES ATTIM. STILL THE MESSAGE IS
IF ANYONE HAS SENSITIVE VEGETATION WOULD BE BEST TO COVER UP TO ENSURE NO
PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET...CHILLY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AS EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO PUSH DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY
OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN GETS ON
FRIDAY WILL DEPEND UPON THE DEPTH AND AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THE
POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MIGHT REMAIN DRY ON
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AREAS THAT REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL
SEE RAIN OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET.

SATURDAY ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RAIN WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON
MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING
IS PRESENT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME A
PROBLEM ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WINDS WILL BE LOWER
THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER COULD STILL SEE SOME GUSTS AT OR JUST BELOW
30 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GIBBS



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