Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 132350
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
550 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

1040 MB arctic high centered over northern IA/southern MN at midday
was providing clear skies, light winds and cold temperatures across
the forecast area. Temperatures at 2 pm were primarily in the single
digits to low teens. Tonight, this high settles southeast across the
area under a northwest flow aloft, providing another night of cold
and dry weather. A weak clipper moving out of the northern rockies
will send a swath of light snow passing well to our southwest
overnight. A much stronger clipper is expected to affect the local
area Sunday night with light snow, then strong winds and falling
temperatures with an associated arctic cold front Monday. Bitter
cold temperatures and potentially dangerously cold wind chills then
follow Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Temperatures should drop quickly this evening with initially clear
skies and light winds. Low to mid level clouds will then overspread
the south and southwest, with higher cloud cover then increasing
over the entire area after midnight. This should lead to
temperatures quickly falling to around zero to a few degrees below
north, to around 5 above in the south, then steady to perhaps slowly
rising as cloud cover increases and light winds turn more southerly
by morning. If this increase in high level cloud cover is slower
than expected, mins could drop to minus 5 or colder, especially over
the lingering snow cover visible on satellite imagery in our far
northwestern counties.

Sunday, a wing of warm air advection aloft develops by afternoon,
followed by stronger upper level forcing arriving toward evening.
The initially very dry airmass and weak lift may delay the onset of
light snow shown by models in eastern IA in the early afternoon and
have kept only slight to low end pops going, with the IL side
possibly not seeing any snow until after sunset. Any accumulating
snow should be well below a quarter inch. Despite cloudy skies,
southerly winds should warm temperatures to afternoon highs from the
upper teens north to mid teens south.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Headlines for cold will eventually be needed for a prolonged period
across the entire area. Headlines for snow may be needed.

A fast clipper storm will move through the area Sunday night and
exit the far east during the Monday morning commute. Snowfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected with the lowest amounts in the
far south.

Winds will start increasing in the pre-dawn hours Monday west of the
Mississippi as the arctic front exits the far east. Given the dry
nature of the snow, drifting is expected.

On Monday, temperatures will fall through the day as arctic air
pours into the Midwest on strong winds. The day time high will be 7
to 8 AM Monday morning. As temperatures fall, wind chills will drop
into the 15 to 20 below zero range.  The winds will result in
drifting snow and possibly some patchy blowing snow.

Monday night/Tuesday the arctic air will be in place across the area
along with brisk winds. Wind chills will be minimally 20 to 30 below
zero. A weak upper level disturbance moving through the area will
likely generate flurries if not some light snow north and east of a
Manchester, IA to Sterling, IL line.

Tuesday night on...

Tuesday night/Wednesday another bitter cold night with temperatures
well below zero.

Wednesday night through Friday, quiet and dry conditions will be
seen across the area along with moderating temperatures. Above
normal temperatures are expected on Friday.

Friday night/Saturday a weak upper level disturbance moves through
the area. Moisture availability is in question but winds aloft will
have been transporting warmer air into the area for a few days. The
current model consensus has slight chance pops for a rain/snow mix
across the northeast half of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

High pressure will produce a light wind and mostly clear sky
overnight. SE winds will pick up through the day Monday. Some
scattered light snow is possible during the afternoon, mainly at
KCID/KDBQ/KBRL, but low confidence in timing and have limited
mention to VCSH. Most of the snow will occur after 00z Sunday
evening.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sheets
SHORT TERM...Sheets
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP Kinney



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