Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 200810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
310 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Upper air analysis shows increasingly amplified flow as energy drops
into the base of the trough over the central US.  Surface analysis
shows high pressure over the northern plains with the surface front
from Chicago to Kansas City.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Generally quiet weather in the short term.  With the upper trough
over the area today, expect clouds to linger through much of the
day. This, combined with low level cold advection, will result in
much cooler temperatures with highs mainly in the 50s.  Area of
precip over southwest IOwa is progged by short term models to
continue to weaken through the morning and thus will keep forecast
dry for today.

Next potential concern is frost risk tonight.  With clearing
expected this evening and the surface ridge centered to our south,
should easily see 30s tonight.  Only fly in that ointment would be
if the upper trough slows causing clouds to linger well into the
overnight hours.  Temperatures would still hit the 30s but frost
formation could be reduced.  But that potential is low and thus
have included frost in forecast for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Expect dry and cool conditions Friday, with highs in the 50s. Some
patchy front is possible north late Friday night with lows likely
dipping into the mid 30s. A warming trend will then follow for
the weekend, with highs back above normal by Sunday, in the mid
60s to low 70s.

Looking ahead to next week, a period of showers and isolated
thunderstorms still looks favored for late Tuesday into Wednesday.
The operational GFS and ECMWF continue to have differences in the
timing and strength of the shortwave trough through this period.
There is potential for precipitable water values well over 1
inch, which is quite moist for late October, and localized heavy
rainfall. The current timing suggests a low threat for severe


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A weak cold front dropping south across eastern Iowa late this
evening will produce a brief surge of north to northwest winds
from 10 kts gusting to near 20 kts as it pushes through the
terminals after midnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will remain
in place through the rest of the night with broken mid level cloud
cover. VFR conditions will continue Thursday as high pressure
advances eastward from the northern plains. Winds will become
gusty from the northwest from mid morning through afternoon, then
become light toward evening.




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