Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 251717
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

SLOWLY WEAKENING UPPER LOW SITS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN
IOWA WITH LOTS OF MID CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SUPPORTS UPPER LOW TO MOVE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH QUESTION OF QUICKLY SYSTEM WEAKENS AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.
LITTLE UPSTREAM ENERGY TO ARRIVE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SUPPORTING
LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT LESS CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST ASSESSMENT CONFIDENCE...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE
TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH REASON AGAIN DUE TO CLOUD AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT/S DISCUSSION...CLOUDS DID
IMPACT HIGHS NW SECTIONS BY 3 DEGREES OR MORE. SAME ISSUE TODAY WITH
ONCE AGAIN ISOLATED SPRINKLES AT LEAST THIS MORNING. FEW SPRINKLES
IS HAPPENING AT 2 AM IN WEST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

TODAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. LOCAL NOWCAST TOOLS DO SUGGEST AT LEAST 3-6
PLUS MORE HOURS AS SPOKES FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUE FOR ISOLATED
SPRINKLES. SOME EVIDENCE SOME ENERGY TO PHASE THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH
TO KEEP MORE CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES LASTING TOWARD EVENING. CLOUDS
AS LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL IMPACT HIGHS TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY NEEDING HIGHS TRIMMED ONCE AGAIN BY 2-3 DEGREES WITH CONCEPTUAL
FORCING ALO-DBQ-MLI-OTM AREA FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES. RAISED MINS TO MOSTLY MIDDLE 50S TO
UPPER 50S WEST. AGAIN...MORE CLOUDS A CONCERN AS COULD REQUIRE RAISING
LOWS A BIT MORE BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES OR MOSTLY UPPER 50S FOR LATER SHIFTS
TO REASSESS. ISOLATED SPRINKLES STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN EVENING
HOURS FOR DAY SHIFT TO RECONSIDER DEPENDING ON RATE OF UPPER LOW WEAKENING.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A NORTH
AMERICAN BLOCKING PATTERN HOLDS. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

JUST BEYOND THIS EXTENDED THE WEATHER APPEARS THAT IT WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. HOWEVER...AS THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED THIS PROCESS IS USUALLY SLOWER THAN
THE MODELS INDICATE. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND ALSO
LOWERED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE TO DO THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY
FOR LATER SHIFTS TO RE-EVALUATE. ECMWF CARVES OUT A MAJOR TROUGH IN
THE PLAINS EARLY OCTOBER WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM ARRIVING ON FRIDAY
OCTOBER 3...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO FAST. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE WITH UPPER LOW VICINITY OF EASTERN IA. THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KCID AND KBRL WHERE RECENT
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND REMAIN BLO 10 KTS
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05




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