Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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633
FXUS63 KDVN 260412
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1112 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Hot and humid weather will continue through sunset, with heat index
readings holding in the 95 to 102 range. If not for the winds of 10
to 15 mph, this would feel even worse which is near a level
requiring an advisory. This heat and humidity will bring the threat
for an isolated storm this afternoon, but coverage is undoubtedly
going to be spotty with the front well west of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Any afternoon storms should end quickly by 6 pm as we loose peak
heating, but the cold frontal arrival after midnight a broken line
of storms rolls east along the front. These will be in a weakening
phase, as the models do not suggest a strong low level jet. However,
with the high PWAT values around 2 inches, some locally heavy
amounts will be possible. Pops are held to lower end likelies
northwest for this broken line, and lowered to chance east as the
diurnal dissipation decreases coverage.   I do not expect more an an
isolated wind gust near 50 mph, as the severe weather threat just
looks too poorly timed for the weak dynamics.  I have lowered
Sunday`s pops a bit as well, as most new activity looks to be east
of our area during the day.  Sunday looks to be more comfortable
with dry advection through the day, though highs in the 80s to lower
90s are still expected behind the cold front.

Ervin

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Forecast focus on a pattern change to a northwest flow with below
normal temperatures for at least the next 7 days.

Monday: Upper level trough will be digging into the Great Lakes
region sending a decent cold front into the cwa. Temperatures will
still be warm ahead of the front but models are dry due to minimal
moisture and lack of forcing. Dewpoints will be tolerable in the
lower 60s. Maximum temperatures will range from around 90 south to
the lower 80s along Highway 20.

Tuesday through Saturday: A delightful stretch of weather with a
northwest flow aloft due to a deep trough in the east and ridging in
the Rockies. This will allow for comfortable temperatures and
humidity levels. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80 for most of
the upcoming week while creeping into the lower to mid 80s towards
next weekend.  Lows should be in the 50s to lower 60s. Not bad for
the end of June and the beginning of July.

Precipitation:  Low confidence through this extended as the models
struggling with timing and location of disturbances riding the
northwest flow. The consensus models have several days of slight
pops but for the most part this is a dry stretch.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday EVENING) ISSUED
AT 1110 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A weak cool front tonight will bring a scattered to broken line of showers
and storms across the region between 26/07Z and 26/12Z. the stronger
storms may result in a brief period of higher end MVFR flying conditions.
This is handled as a tempo group at each aviation terminal. Skies will
once again become fair by morning with light southerly winds of 5 to
10 kts overnight becoming northwesterly at 5 to 10+ kts on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

All flood warnings have been cancelled as none are forecast to
reach flood stage in the next week.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Nichols
HYDROLOGY...Ervin



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