Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 161130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
630 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN A NARROW AXIS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...OR ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE STATIONARY STRATUS DECK. AM
WATCHING TRENDS...AND ALREADY HAVE A SPS OUT ON THE FOG...BUT AM
CONSIDERING A NARROW DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

YESTERDAYS CLOUD PROBLEMS...CONTINUE TO THIS MORNING...JUST ABOUT 70
MILES EAST OF YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME.  FLOW PARALLEL TO THE
CLOUD EDGE HAS PROVIDED A CLEAR NIGHT IN IOWA...AND A FULLY CLOUDY
NIGHT IN MOST OF ILLINOIS. THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS ALL SHOW
WINDS BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF THIS CLOUD EDGE ADVANCING EAST AFTER 09Z
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

SKIES SHOULD BE ACTIVELY CLEARING OVER OUR ILLINOIS COUNTIES THROUGH
10 AM...FOLLOWED BY SUN. THE WEST WILL SEE SOME NONE OPAQUE CIRRUS
AT TIMES TODAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING THERE ALL
DAY. THE SUN WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MIXING AHEAD OF A FRONT
TONIGHT...TO SWEEP TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE LOWER 60S EAST TO NEAR
70 WEST. TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH...WITH NO RAIN OR
CLOUD COVER OF SIGNIFICANCE EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW UP FROM
TONIGHTS CHILLY READINGS. MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED IN ALL
LOCATIONS FOR LOWS.    ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

FRIDAY...00Z RUN MODELS HAVE ACCELERATED POST-FRONTAL WRAP AROUND
STRATOCU DECK AND LLVL COOL SURGE ALONG WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER NORTH-WESTERLIES ON FRI...LOOKING MORE LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY DAY. HIGHS/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S/ DURING LATE MORNING AND
MIDDAY WITH STEADY TO SLOW FALL TREND AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA MAY HAVE MORE PERIODS OF PASSING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER. TIGHTENING CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTHWEST OF NORTHERN GRT LKS
CYCLONE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN MAY WRING OUT SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF
THE DVN CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF LLVL MOISTURE LAYER CAN
DEEPEN ENOUGH...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANOTHER FCST CYCLE DRY INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. DESPITE ONGOING CLOUDS AND MIXING
NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS...LLVL COLD CONVEYOR ITSELF WILL ADVECT
TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 40S ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING...WITH THE CHC AT SOME UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER TROF WITH EMBEDDED VIGOROUS VORT MAX TO
PASS BY SAT AFTERNOON...WITH IN-BUILDING CANADIAN SFC HIGH COMPLEX
AS WELL AS UPPER RIDGING FOLDING ACRS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TO CLEAR THINGS OUT BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SAT HIGHS TO RANGE IN
THE 50S EVEN WITH AFTERNOON CLEAR OUT LOOKING AT FRESHLY ADVECTED
COOL POOL/LLVL THICKNESSES. CLEAR SKIES AND SFC WIND DECOUPLE
TO MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH THE ENTIRE CWA EXPERIENCING
LOWS IN THE 30S...SOME LOWER 30S NORTH OF I80 AND AREAS OF FROST.
ANOTHER VIGOROUS CLIPPER TYPE UPPER LOW TO DUMP DOWN INTO THE
WESTERN GRT LKS BY MON TO LEE OF BLOCKING WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION PROCESS. LLVL RETURN FLOW WARMING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
TO MAKE FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT BULK OF DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING AND LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ADEQUATE
ENOUGH TO FUEL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE...WILL LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH AND EATS OF THE CWA INTO
MONDAY. BUT WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...FEEL THE CONSISTENT ECMWF IS
ON TO SOMETHING WITH AT LEAST SOME SCTRD LIGHT SHOWERS SKIRTING
ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...AFTER THE MONDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...LONG RANGE INDICATIONS STILL SUGGEST BLOCKING
OMEGA PATTERN TO SLIDE ACRS THE MID CONUS WITH NO REAL COLD FETCH
INTO MID NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR BOTTLES UP IN CANADA. THUS A GENERALLY
DRY MILD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SOME LLVL RIDGE UNDULATIONS SQUEEZING
DOWN THE WESTERN GRT LKS AT TIMES TO BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY BACKDOOR
STYLE COOL DOWNS IN NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE
NORTHEAST.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIFR FOG AND STATUS AT MLI AND DBQ...ALL SITES
SHOULD BE VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE EARLY MORNING FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO 1/4MI AND
CIGS TO 100 FT. AFTER 14Z...THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD BLOW
THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME WEST LATE THIS EVENING WHEN A DRY COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN






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