Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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696
FXUS65 KGJT 251759
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1159 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW...SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION NORTH INTO THE PARADOX VALLEYS. HAVE ISSUED WIND
ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...STILL A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY IN STORE...BUT SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST UNDER
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. COOLER AIR ALOFT STEEPENS LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF APPROACHING LOW...EXPECTED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH
TODAY...BUT START DROPPING OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA. SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...BUT IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH
THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP TODAY ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...MORE INLINE WITH THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE
WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING
EXPECTED FOR POPULATED VALLEYS. FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
CWA AND AS IT DOES SO...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP. ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT 9.5K FEET OR SO AND DROP
TO MOUNTAIN BASES BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RISING DURING THE DAY
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS NEWRD THRU THE
DAY...PRECIP WILL TAKE ON A MORE CONVECTIVE TURN WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE POSITION OF
THE LOW WILL ALSO AID IN OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN
THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE WITH A BIT LESS FOR THE SAN JUANS. WILL NOT
ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE AS BULK OF SNOW FALLS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LESS WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL...BUT GRIDS DO SUPPORT SAID HIGHLIGHTS FOR
FUTURE SHIFTS IF/WHEN NEEDED.

NORMALLY AFTER A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WE`D SEE A PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. NOT SO THIS WEEK. WHILE
A WEAK RIDGE DOES TRY TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED AND WILL CAUSE SOME SHOWERS BEFORE YET ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW TAKES AIM AT THE CWA. MORE CLOUDS...RAIN...ISOLATED
STORMS AND MTN SNOW LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN AS A COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM 18Z ONWARDS WITH BEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED AFTER 21Z. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES
SO INCLUDED VCTS AND VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THOUGH SOME ILS BREAKPOINTS MAY BE
MET. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR/JDC
AVIATION...TGR



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