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000
FXUS65 KGJT 092136
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE RIDGE IS ORIENTED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. STORMS OVER THE NORTH ARE MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 10-15MPH. STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOTION WHERE 0-6KM WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
5MPH OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TONIGHT A WEAK SHEARED H3 POT VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE OVER NE UTAH
AND NW CO TONIGHT PROVIDING SOME WEAK FORCING. THE 19Z RAP
FORECASTS A BAND OF SHOWERS DROPPING THROUGH NW CO AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHILE THE 18Z NAM DOES NOT. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE
THE DRIVERS FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES.

DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.15 INCH IN SE UTAH AND AROUND AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FIRST WITH SECOND OR
THIRD GENERATION STORMS FORMING OVER NEARBY VALLEYS LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON- EVENING HOURS. SLOW STORM MOTION AGAIN THREATENS HEAVY
RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DRAGGING A WAVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATED
ACROSS UTAH. THIS WAVE WILL DRAG SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ALONG AND ADD JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THE
STORMS WILL FAVOR THE TERRAIN AS IN DAYS PAST WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA SETTLING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS
MONSOONAL PLUME GETS PUSHED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER. THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW
DROPPING OUT OF THE HIGHER LATITUDES TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DIGGING OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE EAST WILL PUSH THE RIDGE BACK WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THE MED
RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT PUSHING THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN
SHIFTING IT TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE LOOKS TO
BE A STRONGER SURGE OF MOISTURE HEADING OUT OF THE SIERRA MADRE
LATE SUNDAY AND GETS INFUSED INTO THE RIDGE. IT IS STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR OUR CWA BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION FROM THE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATED OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AROUND MID-DAY
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THREATENING REGIONAL AIRPORTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MORE
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TERMINAL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STAND A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED CIRCUMNAVIGABLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FAVORING THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL ZONES. AFTER A CONVECTIVE
BREAK FROM 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY...STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM FIRST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COZ006-007-009-011-
     017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE