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000
FXUS65 KGJT 252154
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT ACTIVE EVENING UNDERWAY AS THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SWATH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE GRAND VALLEY HAS BEEN HARDEST HIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH REPORTS
UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR THE
COLORADO NATIONAL MONUMENT...DUE TO STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
OVER GLADE PARK AND TRAINING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE WEAKENING OF STORMS OVER THIS AREA...AND THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. A H5 VORT MAX IN NORTHWESTERN AZ WILL
WRAP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GET TO EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH
AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE LIKE
LAST NIGHT BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE AND FURTHER NORTH...AS THIS
DISTURBANCE IS WEAKER.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS KEEP PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.95 INCHES FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...CANNOT IDENTIFY ANY
STRIKING FEATURES TOMORROW THAT WILL CREATE LARGE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT POPS
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER
SATURDAY EVENING AND NOT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HANG AT OR ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY
WIGGLES IN THE FLOW WILL EXCITE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FINDING
THOSE MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS HINTING AT A FEW STRONGER WAVES
EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WILL BE MAINTAINING RATHER HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS
HIGHLIGHTED. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH 04Z TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS 30-40
KTS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE FROM
PASSING +SHRA/+TSRA. DECREASING -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 04Z
TONIGHT. AFTER A MORNING LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z SAT AFTERNOON.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAM