Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 130236
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
836 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS UP
NORTH WHILE THE GRAND VALLEY WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S WITH
LOW TO MID 40S FOR OUR SOUTHERN VALLEYS. INTERSTINGLY...THESE ARE
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SO WE`RE RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE NEW DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS HAS HAD AN IMPACT ON SOME
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. AT 2 PM...THE NORTHERN MOST TOWNS SUCH AS
VERNAL CRAIG AND STEAMBOAT WERE 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
CENTRAL TOWNS WERE 5 DEGREES COOLER...WHILE SOUTHERN MOST WERE 5
DEGREES WARMER. DEWPOINTS ARE UNIVERSALLY LOWER AND ONLY A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER AREA MOUNTAINS.

CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXCEPT BELOW NORMAL NORTH. CRAIG HAYDEN STEAMBOAT MAY ALL AGAIN
DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING. SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO
PERCOLATE NORTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION STARTING SATURDAY.
THIS MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THREATEN MORE OUTFLOW WINDS
THAN RAIN. THESE STORMS WILL END BEFORE SUNSET WITH ANOTHER BRISK
LATE SUMMER SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...AND THEN ANCHORED...FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A STRONG BLOCKING TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NOAM ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO DIG OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER OUR CWA FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
ONLY BE SMALL AMOUNT OF RECIRCULATED GULF MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED INTO
DURING THIS PERIOD LEAVING PWAT BELOW HALF OF AN INCH. THE TREND OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HOLD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE.

THIS STAGNANT PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE END THE NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH TO MOVE INLAND. SIMILAR TO EARLIER
THIS WEEK...A WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM...ODILE...MOVING ALONG THE
WESTERN BAJA COAST LINE WILL BE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SWEPT ACROSS OUR CWA LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST. PWAT
FORECASTS ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT...BUT A
NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN
THESE TWO FEATURES COMING TOGETHER OVER OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED CIRCUMNAVIGABLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS FOR KMTJ KTEX KDRO AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE



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