Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 020432
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
932 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

THE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SE CO THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ROTATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NW QUADRANT OF
THE STORM. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME MINOR BANDS OF SHOWERS
GENERALLY MOVING FROM N TO S. BELIEVE SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO LEAVE THE ARE...BUT IT WILL LEAVE AS THE PRECIPITATION AREA GRADUALLY
SLIDES EAST WITH THE LOW CENTERS SLOW EASTERLY MOVEMENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WILL BRING PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF WEST-
CENTRAL CO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL UNTIL ABOUT 9 PM WHEN
THE HRRR AND HIRES SHOW IT MOVING EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO EVOLVE. IT IS IN
THE PROCESS TO TRANSITIONING TO ITS NEXT PHASE AS THIS FORECAST
GOES TO PRESS. THE 500MB LOW PASSED OVER THE 4-CORNERS AROUND
MIDDAY TODAY AND WILL SHORTLY MOVE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

AS A RESULT THE FLOW HAS BEEN TRANSITIONING FROM A SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO WEST-NORTH NEAR THE SURFACE...AND EASTERLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT A DEEP NORTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...THE BETTER SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN
SLOPES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SNOWFALL HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN UT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEYS OF WESTERN CO.
WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN MANY OF THESE AREAS OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT...LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. SO HAVE DROPPED THE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE ZONES. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE
NORTHWEST CO VALLEYS HAVE YET TO SEE THEIR BEST SNOWFALL. EXPECT
THAT THESE ZONES WILL SEE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS IN CO ZONES 1 AND 2 WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE
TAVAPUTS PLATEAU...SOUTH OF RANGELY AND IN THE PICEANCE
BASIN...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ZONE 5 IN THE YAMPA AND
OAK CREEK AREA. THEREFORE EXTENDED THESE ADVISORIES.

ALL PRESENT HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUE...AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW IN THE DRIER NORTH FLOW. HOWEVER ANOTHER
COLD IMPULSE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY...WITH A
-32C/500MB COLD CORE OVER NORTHWEST CO IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
FOR NOW THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT SEEM TO WARRANT
EXTENDING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...AND A MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATIO
MAY BE A CONCERN. COLD ADVECTION IN THE NORTH FLOW WILL RESULT IN
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE.

CONDITIONS QUICKLY WIND DOWN TUE EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ERODE. BY LATE TUE NIGHT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
TO SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS FROM NEAR ASPEN AND NORTHWARD.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE LESS CLOUDS
AND THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS APPEARS A DOMINANT RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE LEFT COAST OF NOAM. THERE WILL STILL
BE PACIFIC WAVES PLOWING INTO THIS FEATURE BUT NOT BE ALLOWED TO
FORM A LARGER SYSTEM IN THE WEST. SO WE ARE LOOKING AT SEVERAL
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE
PLAINS BUT FOR NOW NOTHING LOOKS OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN PLACE UNDER THIS REGIME AS
WELL. THE FIRST WAVE...MORE APPARENT IN THE 1.5 PVU FIELD...WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND JUST BRUSH OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WANE AS WELL AS
INSTABILITY SO REALLY ONLY EXPECTED SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE HIGH PASSES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE TRANSITORY RIDGING
FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST PASSING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS STORM HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING THE PAST FEW
RUNS AND BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE CLOSING A LOW OFF NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CARRYING IN SOME
PACIFIC MOISTURE BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE UPSTREAM MOUNTAIN RANGES
WILL GET THE MOST BENEFIT BEFORE IT GETS HERE. RIDGING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH...THIS ONE
FARTHER NORTH...GOING INTO SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BRING
MORE OF A COLD SHOT THEN PRECIPITATION. BEYOND THIS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH WILL MEAN GENERALLY DRY
AND COLD WEATHER PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 923 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PASSES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF WESTERN CO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. KRIL...KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KMTJ WILL ALL HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE DUE TO PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. FOG DEVELOPING IN VALLEYS
AFTER ABOUT 09Z MAY AFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS AS WELL. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGHOUT TUE AND TUE EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-
     004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR COZ003-007>014-
     017>020-023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC


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