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000
FXUS65 KGJT 160536
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1136 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Antecedent moisture over the region remains trapped under high
pressure as seen in the 12z sounding with 0.91 inch of PWAT still in
the atmosphere at GJT. 500 mb pattern will shift over the next 24
hours and bring the center of high pressure over the Great Basin
eastward to center over southern Utah on Sunday night.
Anticipating slight drying over the next couple of days with this
pattern shift which in turn will allow temperatures to remain about
5 degrees above normal for this time of year. Afternoon convection
is expected to continue at higher terrain. The Grand Valley,
Moab/Canyonlands, and Mexican Hat areas will see temperatures near
if not exceeding the triple digits Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

A weak disturbance looks to brush northeast UT and northwest CO
Monday bringing an enhancement of showers and thunderstorms to this
region. A trough over the Pacific NW will gradually push the high
pressure east of Rockies by midweek. This will allow a weak tap of
monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to increase into the Four
Corners. High pressure is extremely elongated by the end of next
week across the southern half of the US which will keep the
clockwise moisture flow into the Four Corners on the weak side. The
NAM has been handling PWATs best lately, so PWAT values near one
inch will develop midweek with higher values right at the Four
Corners, and this will persist through next weekend allowing for
scattered to broken cloud cover and temperatures near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will have a repeat
of convective activity Sunday afternoon with perhaps a little
less coverage over the northern half. VCTS in for southern TAFs
and KASE where confidence highest for their occurrence. May still
have convection around KEGE, but was not confident enough for
VCTS at this time. Expect late afternoon and evening winds to be
affected by various outflows from storms

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...BM