Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 241116
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
516 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF RECENT WEATHER WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL ALSO LESSEN THE IMPACT FROM THE SMOKE
AND HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES SO WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO THE VISIBILITY TODAY. AS THE RIDGE PUSHES SLIGHTLY
EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH FORECASTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND ONE INCH PUSHING INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SRN ROCKIES
RIDGE BRINGS A MOIST AIR MASS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE WITH PWATS 1.25 TO 1.45 FROM THE GRAND
VALLEY TO THE SERN UTAH DESERTS OR 700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT
9-10 G/KG. THE DEEPEST LAYERED MOISTURE ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS DEW POINT VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
50S...PERHAPS SOME LOWER 60S. DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK...BUT NOT
MUCH LIFT WILL BE NEEDED TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING IN A MOIST
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SOME SHEAR EXISTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE...DEFINITELY NOT TOO EXCITING...BUT ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAINERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON THURSDAY...AIR MASS WILL NOT
BE AS MOIST. BUT SUFFICIENTLY MOIST FOR WETTING RAINS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPE HIGH COUNTRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEAK MONSOONAL TAP INTO WRN
COLORADO...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE WEST COAST WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ASIDE FROM THE ERN
UINTAS...EASTERN UTAH AND THE LOWER WRN COLORADO VALLEYS WILL
LIKELY STAY DRY IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX. SHORT LIVED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OR NEAR MOUNTAIN PEAKS FROM 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.

LOCAL HAZE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BELOW 10SM...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.  OTHERWISE NO OTHER AVIATION
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF


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