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000
FXUS65 KGJT 052326
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
526 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

A DEFORMATION ZONE AND VERY WEAK OLD FRONT FORMED BY FLOW AROUND
TWO HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION CENTERS...ONE OVER NORTHERN UT AND
THE OTHER OVER SW CO AND NW NM...IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CO AND UT. AND OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGE CONTROLS
THE FLOW THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RELATIVELY WEAK AND SHORT-
LIVED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FORMING OVER ALL THE RIDGES...
WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FOR THE STRONGER ONES...ESPECIALLY OVER
AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET ELEVATION. PWAT REMAINS A TOUCH MOIST
RANGING FROM 0.5 INCH OVER THE CO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE... INCREASING TO ABOUT 1 IN.
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS...SOUTHWEST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE. AS
THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH...THE LOWER PWATS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BIT OF A DOWNTURN IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO STORM MOTION WILL
BE SLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN US BUT AS THE
WORK-WEEK PROGRESSES...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
ENCOMPASS MOST OF CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPED
COUNTERCLOCKWISE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PWATS BY WEDNESDAY WILL BE AT LEAST AN INCH
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

DAY TO DAY CHANGES WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE.
HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH SO CHANCES FOR
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS HIGHER FOR THOSE TAF SITES. OCCNL
SHOWERS/STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE UP NORTH BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED.
MOST OF TODAYS CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 03Z THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. AFTER
18Z...EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN FAVORING THE SOUTH AND
HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE A FEW DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR