Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 160413
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1013 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

THE DRYING TREND IS UNDERWAY TODAY...BUT AT A SLOWER RATE THAN
HAD BEEN ADVERTISED. THIS MORNING`S 12Z GJT SOUNDING STILL SHOWED
JUST OVER AN INCH OF PWAT...SAME AS THE PREVIOUS 00Z SOUNDING FROM
THU AFTERNOON. ALSO TODAY`S EARLY AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY BE HELPING ENHANCE TODAY`S CONVECTION. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR A FEW OF CELLS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED. WILL WATCH THESE STORMS CLOSELY...MAINLY FOR RUNOFF
PROBLEMS AS ONE STORM PUT DOWN 0.9 INCH OF RAIN IN AROUND AN HOUR.

THE UPPER WAVE IS SET TO PASS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. SO ONCE HEATING SUBSIDES...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIE
OUT...WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHWEST AZ AND FAR SOUTHWEST UT
ON SAT WITH HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SLOW TO ERODE UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNTURN.
THE NAM SHOWS PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS A NOTCH LOWER THAN TODAY/S. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES. CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN
QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER MAX HEATING WITH SKIES CLEARING BY
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY
REMNANT MOISTURE LEFT. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SLIGHT INCREASE OF MOISTURE BY TUESDAY SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES OF
STORMS. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF AN
UPPER LOW THAT MODELS DEVELOP ALONG THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING THE LOW BUT PLACEMENT
AND TIMING HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. THE CURRENT MODEL RUN OF BOTH
THE EC AND GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE PAC COAST TO
NEAR MIDDLE OF CA BY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW THEN RETROGRADES WEST OUT
TO SEA. IF THE LOW CHANGES POSITION IT COULD ENHANCE THE MOISTURE
PLUME PROGRESSION NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW DO NOT EXPECT
A LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN
NEAR OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH VFR
PREVAILS AT ALL TAF SITES. AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESS THAN A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KTEX AND KASE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...CC


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