Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 161006
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
406 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES REMAINING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE
WATER ON THE 00Z KGJT SOUNDING SAT AT A LOW 0.34 INCHES. ONLY
STREAKS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AREA EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THE STRING OF DRY PERIODS AS A
TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS THAN PASSES OVER OUR CWA. PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW. HOWEVER WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF
LIFT TO SATURATE THIS MOISTURE DOWNWARD THE ONLY AFFECT THESE
CLOUDS WILL HAVE IS MAKING A TRICKY FORECAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
GUIDANCE SO WILL MOST LIKELY STEER TOWARD PERSISTENCE DURING THESE
TWO PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A PACIFIC WAVE BASED NEAR BAJA ATTM WILL
BE ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE
LEFT COAST. THIS WAVE WILL BE UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND QG PROGS
INDICATE THE BEST FOCUS FOR UPWARD LIFT WILL REMAIN TO SOUTH OF OUR
BORDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. PWAT DOES SHOW A FAIRLY GOOD
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...UP ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THIS IS SKEWED AS THE
MOISTURE SATURATES ONLY THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS. INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS SO POPS
WILL CENTERED HERE AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL ADD SOME
SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST AS WELL IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE PROLONGED VIRGA AND COOLING MAY ALLOW A FEW
DROPS TO REACH THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TAD COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THE THICKER CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MOISTURE ROTATING OUT OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE FLOWING NORTH
AND OVER SOUTHWESTERN CO. THE NAM12 AND GFS PRODUCE MORE MOISTURE
AND PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE BUMPED UP THE CHANCE OF RAIN A BIT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND CO ZONES 9 AND 12.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE RIDGELINE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA AND
THIS ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT T0 MOVE IN. THE FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH AND EAST SIDE OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
STORM SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PCPN AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WED NGT
SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE -4 F 700 MB
COLD POCKET MOVES OVER NORTHERN CO AND NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA.

D=

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD. MODERATE WEST
WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...CC



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