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000
FXUS65 KGJT 240437
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
937 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

HERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE...ONE ELONGATED
WAVE WILL PASS THIS EVENING. THE NAM WITH ITS MORE ROBUST QPF
FIELDS IS DISCOUNTED THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES LATE
SATURDAY. THIS ONE IS WEAKER AS THE RIDGE BULGES INLAND PRODUCING
WARM ADVECTION.

DOWN AT THE SURFACE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. THERE ARE EXCEPTIONS IN THE STRONGEST INVERSIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE GUNNISON BASIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
CLEARING TONIGHT INVERSIONS WILL BE STRONG AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN
THE UINTAH AND GUNNISON BASINS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THE DEEP BASINS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MID-
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND A LARGE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF THE HIGH. BY MON THE LOW WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCK  MOUNTAINS BY
MON NIGHT. THEN ON TUE THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WAVE WILL BRUSH THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING. WHILE THE 12Z
MODEL RUNS INDICATE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...
COVERAGE/AMOUNTS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE AS THIS WAVE MOVES UP AND
OVER...AND WORKS AGAINST THE TENACIOUS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. WITH THE
SOUTHWEST ORIGIN...THIS WAVE NOT OVERLY COLD. BUT 700 MB TEMPS
WILL DROP TO AROUND -4C...FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR AREA...AND AGAIN ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
COAST. ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AND WILL APPROACH THE
4-CORNERS. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL TRAVEL. THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS HAS HAS KEPT MOST ACTIVITY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH A LITTLE QPF REACHING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER. THIS 12Z SOLUTION IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF
THAT KEEPS THE BETTER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
AND NORTHWEST MEXICO.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 937 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH COLORADO IS JUST BRINGING SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH NO IMPACT TO FLIGHT TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL FORECAST TERMINALS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY BE LIGHT FOG LOWERING VSBYS
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KVEL AND POSSIBLE THE GUNNISON BASIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT