


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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939 FXUS65 KGJT 061712 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1112 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures warm to 5-10 degrees above normal by Wednesday, and remain there through the rest of the week. - High pressure will keep skies mostly clear, limiting precipitation chances to isolated convection over the terrain in the afternoons. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 254 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 High pressure dominates the pattern through the next 36 hours, with mostly clear skies and warming temperatures. Highs today and tomorrow will run 3-6 degrees above normal, with temperatures across the desert valleys approaching triple digits. A modest amount of moisture and orographics will keep a low chance (20%) of showers or storms developing over the higher terrain this afternoon. A weak shortwave tracking around the ridge tomorrow afternoon will bring a slightly more substantial chance of showers or storms to the terrain, with a 30-40% chance of precipitation. Some spots across the higher terrain of the San Juans may see some wetting rain tomorrow, but total QPF will be under a tenth of an inch. The main threats with anything that develops today or tomorrow will be gusty outflow winds, small hail, and lightning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 254 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Things only get drier from Tuesday on as the high pressure transits further to the north, setting up near the Four Corners. As a result, precipitation potential on Tuesday and Wednesday will rely on whatever lingering moisture may still be trapped west of the Rockies, and there`s not much to tap into, with PWAT`s 65-80% of normal. Expect little more than sparse, isolated showers along mountain ranges. To add, things will be warming up under this pattern as well, placing the region 5-10 degrees above normal. This would mean many lower valley locations will reach triple digit highs throughout the week. By Thursday, the California low will have shifted polewards enough to skirt north of the blocking high. As a result though, the shortwave associated with this low gets flattened between the high pressure center to our south and near-zonal flow to our north. This dampens upper-level support by the time it arrives late Thursday or early Friday. Consequently, PoP`s are low late in the week, though some orographically-driven storms across the north cannot be ruled out. As of now though, it`s not looking promising for much precipitation through the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1109 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with light, terrain-driven winds gusting up to 20 knots this afternoon. The is a very small chance (<20%) for thunderstorms along the Divide this afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BGB LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...TGJT