Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 201822
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1222 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

A strong ridge will remain centered over AZ and NM today through
Wednesday. Hotter air will continue to be pumped into the area as
it circulates around the AZ/NM high. This will drive max
temperatures today well into the 100s across much of SE Utah and
into the Grand Valley in west-central CO, requiring the Heat
Advisory to be continued.

A very minor disturbance will travel over the top of the ridge
today and affect northern CO and UT. This will bring mainly mid
and high cloud and only isolated buildups and a very slight chance
of a brief shower or dry thunderstorm over the northern
mountains. Very little will change Wednesday as near record high
temperatures are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Thursday will see more heat, especially over areas south of
Interstate 70. North of Interstate 70 another trough and weak cold
front will flatten the northern part of the AZ/NM ridge. This will
cause the pressure gradient to increase over the north which may
edge fire weather conditions toward critical. Otherwise more near
record heat is on tap.

On Friday the trough will continue to tighten the pressure
gradient, leading to increasing west to northwest winds and more
cloud cover across the area. This should take the edge off the
heat though keep the possibility of critical fire weather
conditions in the forefront.

By Saturday a large trough is set up over the midwest with a ridge
building over the western Great Basin. This will continue the
moderate northwest flow aloft and keep the focus on fire weather
conditions through the weekend. By late Sunday through Monday, a
trough may undercut the Great Basin High and carry more moisture
into the area, especially over SE UT and SW CO. This many bring
the first upturn in showers and thunderstorms in several weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Another 24 hours of VFR conditions and normal afternoon breezes
under hot and dry conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

The weak trough expected to move through the northern half of the
area Thursday and its associated weak cold front may increase
winds enough to produce critical fire weather conditions. There
may also be enough moisture for isolated dry thunderstorms. Early
this morning there was enough model differences, and quite
borderline conditions at best being predicted, that there wasn`t
enough confidence to issue a fire weather watch for Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A flood advisory has been issued for the Roaring Fork River in
Aspen as snowmelt and tunnel closures upstream have caused the
river to reach bankfull. This advisory will run through Friday
evening.

A number of streams and creeks also continue to run strong, cold,
and high and will continue to do so through the week. Where water
is running high, river banks may become saturated and unstable.
Lowlands along the rivers may also become inundated with water.
Remember if you are going to raft, kayak or tube on the rivers be
sure to always wear a life jacket.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Heat Advisory until 10 PM MDT Thursday for COZ006.

UT...Heat Advisory until 10 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...CC



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