Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 040952
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE RESULT FOR SE TEXAS WILL BE DRY AND COOL
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP ON FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE ALONG THE UPPER PATTERN FROM
CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY STAY AWAY FROM SE TEXAS.

A MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF...ONLY THE
ECMWF WAS BULLISH FOR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE GFS SHOWING CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG AND OFF THE COAST. WILL GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
KEEP THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE.

EVEN THOUGH OFFSHORE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE WARMEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
SLIGHT COOLING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE COLDEST AIRMASS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

40

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER C TX.  WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE LATER TODAY SO WILL GO WITH ADVISORIES FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 1PM WITH CAUTION OVER THE BAYS. CAUTIONS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE NE TO E. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS AS THE EASTERLY FETCH OF WINDS INCREASES. WINDS
DECREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST
LATE SAT MORNING. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR POST FRONTAL OFFSHORE
WINDS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY
REQUIRE ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES.

TIDE LEVELS HAVE DECREASED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND NOW ABOUT A HALF
FOOT TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. TIDES MAY PUSH BACK TO OVER A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY.

39

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY STILL BE DOWN TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10
MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH THIS TODAY. HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF. WINDS WILL BE TURNING TO THE E TO SE AS WELL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH APPEARS LOWER TODAY WITH LOWER
WINDS BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE DRY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  32  58  37  59 /   0   0   0  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  33  59  39  62 /   0   0   0  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            57  42  58  47  61 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39


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