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000
FXUS64 KHGX 162051
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A
CONTINUED STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEAN MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINTS.
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS FROM SUNRISE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 90 F
MAXIMUMS WILL ENSURE AT THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNINGS BREAK UP TO
PARTIALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING...OR A WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW...WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SUBTLY INCREASE...PRIMARILY DUE TO PASSING DISTURBANCES MOVING UP
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING BROAD INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TROUGH. AS OF NOW...THERE IS NO DAY IN PARTICULAR WHERE INLAND
POPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NORTHERN CWA
POPS WILL RANGE IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANGE RANGE. AS IN DAYS
PAST...THE MODEL ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN IN A CHAOTIC STATE PAST DAYS 3
OR 4. NWP HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF A
EARLY-MID WEEK CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LOW...AND WITH THE IMPACT OF
THIS TROUGH`S INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGING. THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE THE MAIN FACTOR AS TO WHETHER WE FALL BACK INTO A
MORE WET PATTERN OR REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAY 7. EXTENDED CLIMATE
FORECASTS FOR LATE MAY INDICATE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE BEHAVIOR
AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. SO...AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE
HIGHER PROBABILITY LIES WITH THE FLATTENED SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE
...OR ZONAL...FLOW PATTERN SCENARIO. NO DISCERNIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH ONLY THE PASSAGE (OR TWO) OF A NORTHERN TEXAS S/W TO INCREASE
RAIN/STORM CHANCES. 31

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL PRODUCE A PERSISTENT AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAUTION FLAGS WILL BE REQUIRED FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. TIDE LEVELS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  88  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  88  68  88  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  80  72  78  73 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43