Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 031746
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1146 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.AVIATION...
The warm front is expected to waffle near the coast. Stronger
storms will be possible in the vicinity of the front and should
mainly affect areas around KGLS.

The band of rain and thunderstorms currently over KGLS will
likely move east of the site by around 1830Z.

Current radar trends indicate a break from the showers over KSGR,
KHOU, and KIAH during the first half of this afternoon. An area of
rain moving over KCLL may spread into KCXO and KUTS during this
period.

For later this afternoon through Sunday morning, tweaked the
timing for thunderstorm chances for most locations. Otherwise,
given the location of the warm front and the approaching upper
low, periods of rain with isolated thunderstorms can be expected.
The location of the warm front will likely lead to IFR for most
sites through the period.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Just cosmetic changes to the grids this morning. Warm front is
situated from roughly Smith Point to Texas City to San Luis Pass
to 15NM south of Matagorda Bay. Keeping an eye on this general
vicinity today as it`ll be where the heaviest rain threat and
severe wx/tornado threat will be. Guidance suggests this boundary
will sag southward and offshore later this afternoon which would
be good news (unless you`re a mariner/rig worker).

Elsewhere...periods of light-moderate stratiform rain are
expected. Swath of precip across northern parts of the CWA has
produced 1-4" totals. Even with these totals well inland...think
additional steady light/moderate rain can be handled in the next
12-18 hours. Problems will occur under training heavier bursts of
precip - which are difficult to pinpoint exactly where that`ll be.
Hence, will leave Flash Flood Watch going everywhere. But, in the
short term during the day, primary issues and focus area will
likely be across se & coastal parts of the region.

No changes to Coastal Flood Advsy. Seas/tides remain up...

47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      53  48  54  50  60 / 100 100  90  70  70
Houston (IAH)              59  54  59  54  65 / 100 100 100  90  90
Galveston (GLS)            70  65  67  61  69 / 100 100 100 100  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
     Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...Harris...
     Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...
     Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
     Waller...Washington...Wharton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Harris.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
     following zones: Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from
     Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...
     Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...47
Aviation/Marine...40



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