Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241814
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
114 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions this afternoon, however some occasional
MVFR ceilings may be possible before 20Z. Widely scattered light
"streamer" showers have developed over much of the CWA. I have
addressed them with VCSH in all of the inland terminals as exact
shower timing would be difficult to pinpoint. Some of the more
reliable short term models suggest that isolated thunderstorms
may also be possible later this around and to the east of the
Houston metro area. I may amend the KIAH and KHOU terminals to add
VCTS around the 21Z update should conditions warrant it.

MVFR cigs are likely to return over night. Model guidance has been
overly pessimistic with cig heights for the last few days so I
leaned more to persistence as guidance. The overall synoptic
pattern will not be much different tonight from last night as SETX
remains pinched between a surface ridge over the Gulf and a
deepening low pressure system on the leeward side of the Rocky
Mountains.                                   Keehn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
At 13z, surface high pressure was located over the SE U.S. with a
trough of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies. The pressure
gradient has tightened and stronger winds expected this afternoon
with conditions becoming breezy. Low level moisture continues to
stream into the area beneath a weak capping inversion near 700 mb.
12z soundings support max temps in the lower 90s but cloud cover
and winds should shave 4-6 degrees from those values. Current
temperature forecast looks on track. There is some weak
convergencenoted in the 850-700 mb layer over the eastern half
of the CWA and this is where both the RAP and HRRR develop some
light showers between 17-22z so bumped pops up to 30 percent over
the extreme east. Rest of the forecast looks on track so no other
changes planned. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      88  74  88  74  84 /  30  10  20  10  50
Houston (IAH)              87  75  88  75  86 /  30  10  10  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            84  78  83  78  83 /  20  10  10  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Wednesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...44



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