Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 130019
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
719 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TSRA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING
INTO TEH BRAZOS VALLEY THROUGH TO THE PINEY WOODS. FRONT APPEARS
TO BE JUST NORTH OF KCLL TO KLFK AT 00Z. EXPECT TSRA TO BE THE
ISSUE AT KCLL/KUTS FOR NEXT COUPLE HRS. KCXO AND POSSIBLY KIAH MAY
NEED TO BE AMMENDED DEPENDING ON HOW TSRA EVOLVE. WITH THE LOST OF
DAY TIME HEATING...EXPECT TSRA TO BE MAINLY SHRA. HRRR/RAP BOTH
SHOW THESE TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THEN AFTER 06Z LOOKS LIKE
MAINLY SHOWERS THROUGH 12-15Z. FRONT SHOULD REACH HOUSTON AREA
AROUND 05Z AND THEN OFF THE COAST 09Z-12Z. CIGS SHOULD GO MVFR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD. THINK BY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS. CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL SAT NIGHT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND TRAVERSE THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FEET POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 4-6 FEET OFFSHORE.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BUT THEN THE WAVE OVER FLORIDA
WILL BE THE NEXT ISSUE. AT PRESENT MOST GUIDANCE TAKES A
DISORGANIZED WAVE INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT IF IT DEVELOPS THEN THESE TRACKS MAY NEED CHANGES. MARINERS
SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON. RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN MINOR STREET
FLOODING ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT
MORE SERIOUS IMPACTS. FURTHER NORTH COVERAGE IS INCREASING FROM
NEAR COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO TRINITY AS MOISTURE POOLS
AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY SO HAVE
LEFT LOWER POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PLACE.

THE MID AND EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
THE EVOLUTION OF INVEST AL92 WHICH IS TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS DISPLAYED A WELL ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY AS IT
CROSSED LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OFFSHORE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO NOT DO MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
ORGANIZATION AND KEEP IT AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF. WHETHER IT BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED OR NOT IT WILL PRODUCE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AND WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE
WEEKEND. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  79  68  86  71 /  60  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  86  69  88  73 /  60  40  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  86  77  86  81 /  60  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...39



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