Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281458
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
958 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER THE EAST TO THE LOWER 80S OUT WEST. RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR THIS AFTN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WEST OF A BAY CITY TO
MADISONVILLE LINE. BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BUT INTEGRITY
OF THE PREV FCST IS ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS NE AREAS. DW PTS HAVE CREPT UP ALONG THE
COAST...BUT STILL VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO WILL SEE A LOT OF SUN TODAY WITH A FEW PATCHES OF
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 80 INLAND
TODAY AREAWIDE.

SUN THROUGH TUE WILL SEE MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY RISE AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASE. STILL LOOKS LIKE TUE AFT THROUGH WED...BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE CONCERNING TIMING AND FAVORED PRECIP AREAS. WILL HAVE
A CHC AREAWIDE FOR NOW TAPERED FROM THE W/SW TO THE NE. THE
SLOWER ECMWF MAINTAINS PRECIP INTO WED AFT AND IS FURTHER NORTH
INTO SE TX WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. IF THIS SOLN VERIFIES...WILL
SEE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SE TX. STAY
TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER. AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND PRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
33

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MAINLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  57  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  60  82  63  81 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  65  77  66  77 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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