Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 232023
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
323 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
By mid-afternoon, scattered to numerous cumulus clouds have
developed across the area per visible imagery. However, it was
noted outside the office earlier today that there had been little
vertical development in the early cu growth thanks to a lingering
subsident cap from the retreating ridge. While there has been
improvement since then, the radar has stayed pretty quiet - the
only returns have been along the seabreeze, mainly in Chambers
County, with Harris County`s first cell popping into existence.
Despite sufficient moisture and a retreating ridge, a weak vort
max evident in water vapor imagery has not made its way into the
area as quickly as expected this afternoon, which likely has made
the difference in the amount of convection.

Tonight through Sunday...
The midlevel ridge should continue to retreat, while a vort max
drifts westward out of the Mid-South, while the surface pattern
remains relatively similar. Sunday should be similar to today
then, albeit a touch cooler and with an expectation for better
convective development.

Monday through Wednesday...
The vort max/inverted trough should be moving through the area
Monday, and by afternoon flow should set up a surge of moisture
into the area, giving us a deep moisture pool and a much more
favorable environment for rain and storms. At the same time,
steering winds look pretty light, so locally heavy rainfall could
be a possibility. The inverted trough will slowly move past the
area through the midweek, which should drag out an increased
potential for rainfall for Tuesday and Wednesday, though Monday is
likely to show the most potential. With the lower midlevel heights
along with likely increased cloudiness and rain, daytime
temperatures should be cooler the first half of the week, but also
means cooler low temperatures may not manifest.

Beyond Wednesday...
Upper ridging will try to build back in late in the week, but
guidance continues to show a weakness, or maybe even a col in the
flow over our area continuing. So, while temperatures should nudge
upward and convection trend downward, it still seems prudent to
keep some potential for precipitation into the weekend.
25

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow on tap tonight with a typical increase during the
late afternoon through midnight then relaxing toward morning with
another landbreeze. Showers should be scattered across the Upper
Texas Coastal Waters Sunday morning as deeper moisture expands
westward. Coverage should linger through Monday morning as inverted
upper trough migrates into SETX. Seas of 1-2 fee with winds 5-13
knots should prevail throughout the period.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  97  77  94  76 /  10  20  10  40  20
Houston (IAH)              79  96  79  92  78 /  10  40  20  60  30
Galveston (GLS)            82  92  81  89  81 /  20  30  30  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...45


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