Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 181550
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1050 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP THIS MORNING BETWEEN
GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA WHERE THE HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LOCATED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE LOCATIONS
COVERED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY...AND SEE NO REASON TO
ADJUST THE NUMBERS THAT ARE ALREADY THERE.

HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
IN OUR AREA. MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR THE AREA WITH
THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER PW IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS MOVING
UP THE WRN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTH AND MIDDLE TX COASTS. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWING SOME 1-1.3" PWS POOLING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO N TX & LA. DO EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE ENE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIER AIR WILL LAG SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL BACKDOORING INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SHRA
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY WHERE THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED. EVEN THEN CHANCES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED SW OF CWA. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME REALLY ISO LATE AFTN & EVENING SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. DOESN`T APPEAR THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT
MUCH PAST A BRENHAM-ANAHUAC LINE ON SUNDAY. WITH CONTINUED ESE
FETCH ALONG THE NRN GULF...WOULD SUSPECT WE`LL SEE ISO ACTIVITY
ALONG & SOUTH OF THAT AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DRIER
AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO ALL OF SE TX DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE NE THEN N AS AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE & SW GULF GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE SE GULF
AND/OR CARIBBEAN.

DIFFERENCES START EMERGING IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING WX
PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH GFS/ECMWF DEPICT H5 RIDGE
EXPANDING FROM BAJA INTO THE DESERT SW AND NEWD INTO THE PLAINS.
ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IN TX WHILE GFS DEPICTS
THE RIDGE EXPANDING FURTHER WWD INTO TX AND A SOMEWHAT MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS DIGGING SE INTO LA AND INTO THE CNTL
& ERN GULF. WILL CONTINUE W/ A DRY FCST FOR NOW UNTIL SOME MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT ENELY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUND-
ARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THIS WIND PATTERN THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS
THESE FLOW PERSISTS WE COULD START TO SEE ELEVATED TIDES (UP TO 1 FT
INITIALLY) FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TIDES COULD RISE FROM 1.5
TO 2 FEET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SFC PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL
OVER THE W/SW GULF (DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE)...
THIS TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING WINDS/ELEVATED
SEAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CAUTION AND/
OR ADVISORY FLAGS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  41


AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC HELPING TO KEEP THE VIS/
CIG ISSUES AT BAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
EARLY SUN MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  62  82  62  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  63  83  62  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  70  80  70  81 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38



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