Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 170435

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1135 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016


06Z Aviation...Will see strato cu and patchy fog develop
overnight, especially at CXO and LBX. Could see areas of MVFR
ceilings during the early morning hours. Overall, Monday
should be similar to today.




No major changes needed for the evening update. Weak
speed/directional convergence across the western coastal waters
this evening has been enough to produce a few isolated showers
(some of which have held together long enough to reach coastal
Matagorda and Brazoria counties), with diminishing coverage over
the past few hours as surface high pressure has built farther into
the northern Gulf. Added an isolated shower mention through 10 PM
CDT for the coastal waters and immediate coast west of Freeport
but only maintaining silent 10 PoPs through the remainder of the
night as surface high pressure continues to build south.

Patchy fog development will again be possible west and north of
the Houston metro as near surface saturation occurs overnight.
Otherwise, expect low temperatures in the 70s across the region
with mostly clear skies this evening transitioning to partly
cloudy overnight.




00Z Aviation...Expect to see some early morning fog at the usual
sites (LBX and CXO). Will also likely see a brief pd of some MVFR
ceilings generally between 9Z until 14Z. Only isolated shra in the
fcst, so the probability is too low for a TAF mention. 33


Upper ridge/dry air aloft prevailing across SE TX today...and will
likely do so for tomorrow as well. Radar indicating some very weak
echoes trying to move onshore near Freeport but not expecting them
to hold together. No real change with this pattern of above normal
temps/no POPS until maybe Tue night or so when the upper ridge be-
gins to weaken/move off to the east. Increasing moisture levels in
its wake (courtesy of a persistent onshore flow) will then help to
set the stage for increased POPS with the passage of a strong cold
front on Thur. Would not be too surprised to see isolated WAA-type
SHRAs along/near the coast starting Tues night/early Weds morning.
ECMWF remains the more consistent model with the front (especially
with timing) will keep leaning more heavily on it. 41

Generally moderate southeast winds are expected through the middle
of the week allowing for 2 to 3 foot seas near shore and 3 to 4 foot
seas offshore. Forecast models are on track with a cold front
expected to push off the coast Thursday into Friday time frame.
Models are some faster with the front and the GFS is now in step
with the ECMWF from previous runs. The Canadian has becomes slower
with the front, but consistent with the GFS with regards to wind
speeds behind the front. Current thinking is that the front may
push off the coast Thursday afternoon with northerly winds
increasing overnight. A small craft advisory will likely be needed
for winds and rough seas behind the front Thursday night into



College Station (CLL)      73  91  72  91  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              73  92  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            78  87  78  87  78 /  10  10  10  10  20




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