Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 172308
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
508 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CIRRUS DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
06-12Z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TX
TONIGHT/TUES MORN....BUT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
FALL TO AND/OR BELOW FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH DECREASING
WINDS TO PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. CURRENT PROJECTIONS DO
INDICATE THAT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD EXPERIENCE TEMPS AT/
BELOW FREEZING ABOUT 10-12HRS TONIGHT...CENTRAL COUNTIES (GEN-
ERALLY ALONG I-10) AND INLAND COASTAL COUNTIES ABOUT 4-6HRS.

HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE TIMING OF WHEN WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE AND THE PERSISTENCE OF PROGS WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. AT ANY RATE...THESE FACTORS
SHOULD ONLY TWEAK/SHORTEN THE LENGTH OF TIME FOR AT OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS BY A FEW HRS.

THEREAFTER A STEADY WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR SE TX THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE NEARLY NNW UPPER
FLOW TO FLATTEN OUT TO NEARLY ZONAL BY THUR WITH ONSHORE SFC WINDS
RETURNING. EXTENDED MODELS COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
DEVELOPING/MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. FIRST SYSTEM PROGGED FOR THURS
WITH A SECOND STRONGER ONE ON SAT. WILL KEEP CHC POP NUMBERS IN
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME ATTM BUT MODELS HINTING THAT THE SYSTEM ON SAT
MAY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. 41

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT OVER
THE BAYS...BUT CONTINUE OFFSHORE. BELOW NORMAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LATE TUESDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
BEGINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. POSSIBLE CAUTION TO NEAR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      27  52  34  62  49 /   0   0   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              30  53  35  63  52 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            39  53  46  65  59 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...
     FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MATAGORDA...WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



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