Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 240904
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS SFC LOW IN THE S PLAINS WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER SE TX. WINDS HAVE FOR THE MOST PART DECOUPLED
WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP. FOG SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AGAIN. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A
WEAK RIDGE OVER TX AND THE PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WERE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND INTER-MTN WEST. OVERALL PATTERN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD SUPPORT PERSISTENT WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S.

SYNOPTIC MODEL SUITE ALL DEPICT A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR WED/THUR. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE INTER-
MTN WEST SHOULD MOVE EAST QUICKLY AND PHASE TOGETHER DURING THIS
TIME. BY THUR A RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE PAC COAST WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STRETCHING INTO TX. NW/N FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON
THUR. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER
OR JUST ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISO
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
DEVELOPING AROUND 800MB WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE FRONT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN ANY CAPPING BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE QPF HAS BEEN DECREASING WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS. FORECAST
WILL KEEP 40 POPS IN PLACE FOR THUR WITH IDEA THAT CAP WILL LIKELY
HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PALE IN
COMPARISON TO RECENT RAIN EVENTS. BUT STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT A TENTH OR TWO OF PRECIP.

AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A NOW WEAKER
SURGE OF COOLER AIR LATE FRI. FORECAST TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS PROGS. MIN TEMPS MAY STILL DIP
INTO THE 40S/50S FOR THE WEEKEND BUT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S LOOK
MORE LIKELY WITH THE NEW MODEL TRENDS.

EXTENDED FORECAST...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR TUE/WED NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS A VERY POTENT TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM BUT BOTH MODELS
INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE THE MAIN IMPACT BUT THE PATTERN COULD SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THESE DETAILS WITH
FUTURE FORECASTS.

39

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL GENERATE SHRA/TSRA AS IT CROSSES THE COASTAL WATERS. A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW IS SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN FURTHER
EAST ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE BY
SATURDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  61  81  60  66 /   0  10  10  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  60  81  62  71 /   0  10  10  20  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  64  76  65  71 /   0  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43


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