Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 171557
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1057 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS BELOW ARE LOOKING GOOD. ANTICIPATING JUST
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS RISE. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MORE HUMID TODAY & SAT AS LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
RETURNS BACK INTO SE TX COMPLIMENTS OF SLY WINDS. WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE INTO SE TX SAT AFTN & EVNG. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND HAVE DOUBTS WE`LL SEE PRECIP
EVEN WORTH MENTIONING...BUT SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING SOME ISO SPECKLING OF
SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST. WENT
AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME LOWISH POPS BUT SUSPECT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. LOWER DEWPOINT AIR DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
IT`LL MAKE IT MUCH PAST I-10 CORRIDOR SO VERY SLT PRECIP CHANCES
MAY CONTINUE THERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FALLING PRESSURES AND UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE SRN GULF FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS
A SFC CIRCULATION EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS AND GETS PULLED ENE TOWARD
TAIL OF MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE E COAST DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. LLVL WINDS WOULD TRANSITION FROM E-NE-N AS THIS
OCCURS AND PULLS DOWN DRY AIRMASS INTO TX. LOOKING LIKE A REALLY
NICE WX WEEK OVERALL. (EVEN IF AREA OF DISTURBED WX DOESN`T END
UP FEELING THAT ERN TROF AND LINGERS FOR A WHILE...SHEAR ALOFT
LOOKS WAY TOO HOSTILE TO BE MUCH OF A TROPICAL THREAT HERE.) DO
HOWEVER ANTICIPATE SOME MARINE ISSUES WITH ELEVATED WINDS...
SEAS...AND TIDE LEVELS WITH A LONG DURATION E/NE FETCH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GULF. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41


AVIATION...
NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BUT THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST-
URE COULD PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VIS PROB FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
SAT MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  63  85  62  82 /   0  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  64  86  63  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  71  83  69  81 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38


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