Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 270921
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
421 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM THE (NORTH)EAST BEHIND YESTERDAY`S
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PINEY WOOD DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S WILL FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A COOL AND
DRY START TO THE DAY IN THE AVERAGE INTERIOR MIDDLE 60S...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
AVERAGE MIDDLE 90S INLAND...TO AROUND 90F AT THE COAST. OHIO
VALLEY-CENTERED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WILL ENSURE A LIGHT EASTERLY/VARIABLE BREEZE THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST REGIONAL STEERING
FLOW WILL REINFORCE A NEAR 1 INCH PWAT AIR MASS...ALONG WITH THE
EASTERN EXPANSION OF THE WESTERN PLAINS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...
MAINTAINING THIS EARLY AUTUMN FEELING WEATHER PATTERN WHILE KEEPING
NIL POPS SCHEDULED THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEEKEND WEATHER WILL START OFF PLEASANT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS/HUMIDITY
GOING INTO SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SUNDAY MARITIME PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL
HAVE A LIGHT ONSHORE BACK IN OVER THE WEEKEND...MILD OVERNIGHTS
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DAYS WARMING INTO THE
NEAR NORMAL LOW TO MID 90S.

A FORECAST NEAR STAGNANT 5H PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE NEAR MERIDIONAL MIDWESTERN TROUGH ROLLS UP UNDER THE
SOUTHERN BELLY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...ORIENTATING ITS AXIS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST (OR NEAR PARALLEL) TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
THIS TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO PINCH OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY. THIS MORE UNSETTLED SCENARIO
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH/LOW WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
PRIMARILY SOUTHERN CWA/GULF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRECIPITATION
COMMENCING EARLY MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO FORM OVER THE GULF AND ADVANCE
INLAND EACH MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE UPPER 80 INTERIOR
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE ACHIEVED. NEXT WEEK`S CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE CLOUDY WITH MORNING READINGS LOWERING
INTO THE MEAN LOWER 70S/MIDDLE 70S NEAR COAST...AFTERNOONS WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTIES...BRIEFLY COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS. 31

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS TO RESUME
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN <3FT THRU THE PERIOD. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. 47

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  67  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  69  95  72  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  80  90  79  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/47


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