Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 232018
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE WAY THIS WEEK STARTED...GREAT TO END THE WEEK WITH SOME
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ACROSS SE TEXAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE
LOW 80S WITH LOW HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON. ONE CANNOT ASK FOR MUCH
BETTER WEATHER TO BE OUTSIDE.

SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THIS SYSTEM OVER MEXICO. THE FORECAST WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON BUT LOOKS LIKE THOSE
CHANCES DIMINISH TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE
CANADIAN MODEL...MOST MODELS INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH CONVECTION. GFS SEEMS TO BE ON
THE HIGH END FOR QPF BUT EVEN IT ENDS PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING. REGARDLESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
AND HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AS MOISTURE RETURNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW AND JET STREAM
OUT OVER THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PULL
INTO THE ROCKIES TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE PLAINS BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS. ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...FAIRLY STRONG
CAP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD RESTRICT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PASSING SHOWERS DUE TO
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. A TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT OR
DRY LINE MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA AND STALL ON WEDNESDAY SO
MAINTAINED 30/40 POPS FOR THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THIS EVOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP CHANCES. THAT SAID...GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. BOTH GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ECMWF IS MORE CONCERNING SINCE
IT HAS A BETTER DIFFLUENT JET STRUCTURE WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A
WEAKER CAP AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THIS IS A MODEL SIGNAL THAT
MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE MODEL RUNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO MEXICO.

OVERPECK

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
OVER THE BAYS THE BRIEF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SEABREEZE
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A LIGHT ELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE SFC HIGH
MOVING FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EX-
PECTED TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...STRENGTHENING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING IN FROM THE SW. WE COULD SEE CAUTION FLAGS OVER THE MARINE
WATERS STARTING MON NIGHT ON INTO THURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  81  67  84  69 /   0  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  81  67  83  70 /   0  20  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  77  71  79  73 /   0  30  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41



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