Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHGX 300445
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL LATEST TAF LOOKS ON TRACK SO THERE WERE NOT MANY CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THINK VFR CIGS WILL BE ON TRACK THE REST
OF THE NIGHT WITH KCLL/KUTS/KCXO BEING THE EXCEPTIONS. MAY GET
MVFR/IFR CIGS BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING AT THESE SITES. CONVECTION
WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVERALL
PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SO EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE IN TSRA. STORMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE ON SCHEDULE AROUND 22-01Z AT THE LATEST.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN MADE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OUR AREA IN/AROUND LUFKIN. IN CASE SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY BACK BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN EDGES OF TRINITY/POLK/HOUSTON
COUNTIES...HAVE KEPT THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
AREA RADAR SHOW NO MORE RETURNS SO NO EXPECTING ANY MORE
CONVECTION THE REST OF THE EVENING. ONLY CIGS TO BE CONCERNED
ABOUT WILL BE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KCLL/KUTS/KCXO LIKE THIS
MORNING. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN VFR. PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 1.8-2.0 INCH RANGE SO THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE AROUND 90F AGAIN TOMORROW. TAFS WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCTS
STARTING AROUND 18Z FOR MOST AREAS BUT HR OR TWO SOONER ALONG THE
COAST. LOOK FOR STORMS TO DISSIPATE AGAIN LATE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
SO EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCT TSRA ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. THIS FAIRLY FAMILIAR PATTERN SHOULD RETURN TOMORROW
(AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF THE WEEK) AS A LOT OF THE SAME WX FEAT-
URES REMAIN IN PLACE. AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP
THE NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND A SEEMINGLY STEADY
SUPPLY OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. AT THE SFC...WE
ARE STILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INFLUENCED BY THE HIGH OUT WEST...BUT THE
MAIN ISSUE AT THE LOWER LEVELS MAY BE POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS OF A-
VAILABLE MOISTURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY KEEP CHC
POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR TOMORROW/WEDS GIVEN THE WET TRENDS OF LATE.
PERHAPS A SLIGHT BREAK THUR/FRI BUT MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND...EVEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST BEGINS TO
FLATTEN/EDGE EAST. THIS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT PROGGED FOR NEXT WEEK
SHOULD GIVE US A SLIGHTLY DRIER (AND MAYBE WARMER) FCST OVERALL.
41

MARINE...
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE WITH THE MARITIME FORECAST AS THE LOCAL
WATERS STAY ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A CENTRAL GULF CENTERED SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. PERSISTENT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...WITH A MORE
MODERATE EARLY MORNING PRE-DAWN WIND AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
MIX DOWN TO THE WATER`S SURFACE. THIS AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KT SW-S FETCH
WILL MAINTAIN 2-3 FOOT NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS.
THERE ARE STILL SOLID CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY THIS WEEK. BE AWARE THAT WINDS AND SEAS COULD QUICKLY BECOME
VIOLENT IN OR NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  90  75  92  75 /  20  30  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  91  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  89  80  89  80 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.