Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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566
FXUS64 KHGX 102337
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
537 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH... WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS.
SKC GENERALLY EXPECTED SAVE FOR SOME PASSING CIRRUS ON THURSDAY.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDED INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE TEXAS AND
BECOME STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY
FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH THE GFS BUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE VERY LITTLE CAPE FORECASTED. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE
SOUNDING PROFILES FORECAST A DECENT CAP AT 700 MB ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CAP BEING ERODED WHEN A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

40

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER MORE TO
THE SW OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH WHEREAS SPEEDS MIGHT
REACH CAUTION CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AND THURS MORNING BEYOND 20 NM.
WILL FORGO THE FLAGS ATTM AND JUST GO W/ 15KT AND LET THE EVENING
CREW RE- EVALUATE THINGS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW/S FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BACKDOOR
INTO THE REGION ON SAT CAUSING WINDS TO GO ENE. WINDS SHOULD VEER
TO THE SE AGAIN BY LATE SAT NIGHT HOWEVER. THERE`S STILL SOME
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE - BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO OCCUR LATE MON
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. 47

FIRE...
RH`S WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND THURS/FRI AS LLVL MOISTURE
LEVELS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE. RH`S LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
30-35% FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 ON THURS...AND 35-60% SOUTH OF I-10
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. STILL FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS STILL IN
PLACE AND WOULD BE AWARE THAT SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15MPH
DURING THE MID MORNING THRU AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      47  76  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  76  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  70  57  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14



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