Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 230448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1148 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Thick cirrus deck spreading across the region and has reached the
coast. This will help to hamper fog development until perhaps
right around sunrise. Will tempo in IFR/MVFR fog/cigs 09-13z
window. Trend in pops is down substantially...model sounding
showing an uncapped unstable atmosphere across the region in the
afternoon. Lift will need to be peak heating and perhaps a
seabreeze for the inland areas...and perhaps the s/w coming in
across Mexico...but it may arrive too late. Will continue the
mention of vcsh/vcts for the peak hours in the afternoon. A few of
of the high res models bring in convective remains from the west
in the afternoon but they may not survive to IAH/HOU. After todays
bust am hesitant to go in whole hog on tempo/prob for direct
impacts. Negatives outweighing the positives for development.
Moist axis will be overhead Monday night and will probably see a
mix of high clouds and MVFR CIGS.



Current forecast looks good. No changes planned at this time. A
lot of high cloud blow-off from storms out west could have some
impacts with the Aviation side of things (re:the development of
patchy fog VS low clouds). Otherwise should be a quiet night a-
cross SE TX. 41


Skies clearing out over the area but cirrus from dryline storms
will be moving overhead tonight. Drier air than was expected
overhead tonight and with morning storms that spread out into the
Gulf and south appears to have shunted the `expected` moisture
south. Capped at CRP and LCH 00z sounding looks more than dry
enough. Overnight should be VFR becoming a combination of low cigs
and fog as temperatures fall quickly this evening then slow.
Moisture and clouds have already snuck ashore once this evening
and more is forming over the nearshore waters and GLS/LBX will
likely go back to MVFR before midnight. After 09z many sites
outside the Metro should have either br/mifg/fg and/or low cigs.
Fog in the metro will probably be more mifg. The boundary well
offshore should slowly lift north and may see a round of morning
showers near the coast then isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms inland during the afternoon or late afternoon with
the seabreeze. Yesterdays model runs were bringing in a s/w
faster than is occurring as it is just now crossing the Gulf of the progged pace it gets close to the region
during the Monday evening hours and this may arrive late enough
that daytime heating will be over and capping may limit coverage.


College Station (CLL)      70  86  72  88  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              70  86  73  88  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            76  83  76  84  78 /  10  20  10  10  10




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