Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 250020
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
720 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FAIRLY OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDS MORNING - MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND THE STILL
WET GROUNDS. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY PUT
A DAMPER ON THINGS SO WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON LIFR CIGS ATTM. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SO FAR IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
INLAND AND CLOSE TO 70 AT THE COAST. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT... EXPECTING ANOTHER SHOT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE FOG. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80 DECREES. RAIN (SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS) COME BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP NORTH AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA AND TOWARD THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL
CLEAR THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...STILL ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE RAINFALL
TOTALS PEAKING AT A TENTH OF AN INCH...POSSIBLY TWO. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A GRADUAL
WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA
AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIFT MIGHT INCREASE
ENOUGH ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE COULD COME ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON WHAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY
HAPPEN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. 42

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES AND
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY SEE SOME SEA FOG FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE FOCUSED IN THE
FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA BAY AREA. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH AND WITH
SHORTER TRAJECTORIES OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS MAY BE MORE OF A
LOW STRATUS FEATURE. COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST NEAR NOON AROUND
MATAGORDA BAY THEN A FEW HOURS LATER FOR GALVESTON BAY AREA. WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP AND GET GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT. SCEC CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING IN THE BAYS
AND SCA CONDITIONS ON THE GULF WATERS AS WINDS MAY BE SUSTAINED AT
20-25 KNOTS WELL OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION AS FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE
GULF THE THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS INCREASES WITH CAPE OF 1000+J/KG
WITH SOME WEAK SHEAR/PW 1.5-1.6" BUT ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS...SO WHEREVER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CAP RESIDES FROM
THERE EASTWARD MAY HAVE AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT OVER THE WATER.
WINDS RELAX QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND OUT
OVER THE WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  81  60  66  47 /  10  10  40  40   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  81  62  71  51 /  10  10  20  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  76  65  71  56 /  10  10  20  50  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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