Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 090439
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. CONVECTION OVER
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA HAS DISSIPATED WITH MOST SITES NOW CLEAR.
TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...SOLELY BASED UPON THE LOW
EXPECTED COVERAGE...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF VCTS OUT OF THE CURRENT
TAF PACKAGE. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ABOUT RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING. STORM COVERAGE WAS A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LESS INSTABILITY TO UTILIZE. STILL HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...EXPECT A REPEAT TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. UPPER LOW WEAKENS
FRI SO EXPECT RIDGE TO TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE HITTING THAT ELUSIVE 95F MARK AT HOUSTON
IAH/HOU. COLLEGE STATION REACHED THE MARK TODAY BUT BOTH HOUSTON
CLIMATE SITES ONLY REACHED 92F. THIS MEANS THAT 2014 SHOULD AT
LEAST TIE FOR NINTH FOR THE LATEST DAY TO REACH 95F FOR A HIGH
TEMPERATURE. IT MAY END UP EIGHTH IF 95F IS NOT REACHED THURSDAY.
HOUSTON WILL HAVE TO GO TO 7/15 TO TIE FOR SEVENTH.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...MADE NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST OTHER TO
TOUCH UP OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.

39/38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION

AVIATION...
CONVECTION IMPACTING HOU THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY REMAINS
CENTERED IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. REMAINING TSRA/SHRA SHOULD END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. A FEW SITES COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL REEVALUATE THIS WITH
00Z MODEL DATA. EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED COVERAGE HAVE
LEFT VCTS MENTION OUT OF EXTENDED PORTION OF CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  94  74  94  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  75  93  76 /  10  30  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  89  80  90  81 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39



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