Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017


.AVIATION...
MVFR cigs should gradually lift to VFR later throughout the
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Current thinking
has the main round of thunderstorms pushing through KCLL 1-3Z and
gradually working down to KGLS between 2-6Z. MVFR conditions are
expected with these storms with locally lower cigs/vis possible
within the heavier downpours. Once the front has pushed through,
VFR conditions and generally NW to NNW flow are expected for the
remainder of the taf period. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Per trends overnight, it looks like the cap is holding over SE TX
as the strong convection moving in from the west falls apart when
entering the area. Surface analyses showing that the main frontal
moved offshore last night with weak/steady CAA in its wake so far
this morning. However, we are not quite out of the woods just yet.
The approach/passage of the strong shortwave timed with peak heat-
ing and the stronger front will be enough to break the cap by the
late afternoon/early evening hours. Also of note...are progs of a
strongly divergent upper jet structure at this same time. SPC has
SE TX in Marginal for today with the main threats being hail/wind.

The passage of the cold front tonight will usher in drier/quieter
period of weather for the area through the rest of the week. Cool-
er temps/dewpoints overnight through most of Weds should begin to
modify Thurs with the return of onshore winds/low-level moisture.
The next best chances for rain are expected to return to the area
late Sat as another front moves into and then stall just north of
the region. Models are then drawing a series of disturbances from
the west (via the zonal upper flow) to interact with the boundary.
41

MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front which should push off the
coast late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Moderate northerly winds
and building seas are expected in the wake of this front, and
caution or advisory flags may be required. Onshore winds are set to
return to the area overnight Wednesday night before strengthening
with a tightening gradient the rest of the week and into the
weekend. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      81  57  83  63  89 /  50  50  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)              83  59  84  63  89 /  40  60  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            82  64  81  72  85 /  40  60  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...11


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