Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 121752
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR prevails through the period with early afternoon cloud breaks
behind a weak morning westerly wave passage. The gradual backing
of breezes to the east-northeast latter today will usher in a
slightly drier northeastern air mass. Thus...anticipating SKC or
just FEW040-060 through the overnight Monday morning hours. Light
winds will slowly veer back to more easterly by tomorrow afternoon.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/

UPDATE...
The majority of shower activity this morning remains relegated to
the southwestern counties/near Matagorda Bay, aided by lift from
a mid/upper level impulse evident on water vapor imagery. With the
departure of this feature and surface winds gradually becoming
northeast as an inverted trough over the western Gulf drops
towards the lower Texas coast, expect rain chances to gradually
taper off through the afternoon and evening hours. Keeping an eye
on a slow-moving frontal boundary northwest of the D/FW metroplex
for a possible secondary focus for showers later this evening, but
with continued modification of the air behind the front have low
confidence that the front will reach the region... and even if it
does, decreasing surface convergence as winds become northeasterly
looks to preclude any rain chances along it. Updated rain chances
based on latest radar trends and adjusted temperatures given
trends in cloud cover (lowered where clouds have been persistent,
increased where there have been breaks). Otherwise, expect highs
to top out in the mid 70s today. 11

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning surface analysis indicates a frontal boundary
moving southward thru Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. An
inverted trough/wave is situated from the central Louisiana coast
southward into the Gulf. GOES Total PW plot shows values ranging
from ~1.5" near Matagorda Bay to ~1.0-1.2 further northeast.

It`s not looking like the frontal boundary will have enough push
to make it into southeast Texas to impact temperatures or provide
much of a focusing mechanism for precip. However, expect winds to
back around to the northeast today as the trof/wave in the Gulf
makes further westward progress. As this occurs, it should advect
slightly drier air over Louisiana into the region later this
morning and afternoon. Rain chances will be slim, and the current
20% chances in the grids could be overly generous, but will go
ahead and let them ride for now as some of the higher res models
show the potential for a few showers dotting the area this
morning.

Otherwise, the remainder of the work week looks mostly dry with a
nw flow in place aloft. Highs should range from the upper 70s-low
80s. Overnight lows in the 50s will climb into the 60s toward
mid/late week as onshore winds resume. The next cold front, and
associated slight chances of rain, is expected to move into the
area Friday night or Saturday.  47

&&

MARINE...
Generally light to moderate E/SE flow is expected today. Winds will
then be shifting to the NE tonight as a weak cold front pushes into
the coastal waters. Caution flags may be needed in the wake of this
front overnight. As high pressure builds into the area...winds will
be gradually weakening Mon afternoon...then shifting to the SE late
Tue. This light to moderate onshore flow should prevail through the
rest of the week. A stronger cold front is forecast to push off the
coast sometime around Fri/Sat of next week, bringing with it strong
offshore winds/building seas in its wake. 41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      59  76  59  77  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              59  77  57  76  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            66  76  65  74  66 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...31



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