Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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414
FXUS64 KHGX 082052
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
252 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLY DRY AIR OVER SE TX (CONROE SFC DEW PT OF 4 DEGREES AT
2 PM) COUPLED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAS CREATED DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGH 7 PM BUT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z AND FEEL
THE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 MPH BEFORE 00Z...AM A
LITTLE NERVOUS THAT WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST SO AM GOING
TO LET THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM. THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO COOL INTO LOW/MID 30S TONIGHT. MAX
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE BUT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MORE BENIGN AS
LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS AND A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES WED-FRI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW WILL
FLATTEN A BIT AS A S/WV OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES EAST ON
FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND AM NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THE FRONT WILL CLEAR SE
TX AS PRESSURES OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BEGIN TO FALL EARLY SUNDAY.
THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL TX SUNDAY AFTN
AND MOVE IT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEY DIFFER WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC FEATURE AND THE SHARPNESS OF A MID LEVEL S/WV.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH BOTH FEATURES AND GENERATES A PRETTY
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND DRIER. CHANCE POPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE THINGS AS THEY ARE
UNTIL THE GFS/ECMWF CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6
PM CST...LOW WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY. BAY AND NEARSHORE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO CAUTION CRITERIA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH NEARSHORE WINDS STAYING AROUND 15 KNOTS PAST
SUNRISE/LOCAL BAY WINDS TO FALL TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT.
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN OVER
WATERS AND THEN EXITING EAST AT MID WEEK WILL WEAKEN THESE NORTH
WINDS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OVER OFFSHORE LOCATIONS...ALLOW A LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND PATTERN TO BECOME DOMINANT
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE TIMES THAT THURSDAY`S
OFFSHORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REACH CAUTION LEVELS THURSDAY. 31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE TEENS. SUPERIMPOSE A REGIONALLY STRONG NORTH WIND FIELD AND
THIS IS WHAT WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IF NOT BEFORE TODAY...FUELS ARE BECOMING WELL CURED AND
THIS HAS EXACERBATED THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND RAPID
SPREAD OF WILDFIRE. WINDS WILL COME DOWN TONIGHT BUT...UNDER A
CONTINUED OFFSHORE BREEZE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW
DURING THE SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH RELIEF IN SIGHT
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS HUMIDITIES STAY LOW PER THE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE WEEK SOUTHWESTERLIES THAT WILL REACH MODERATE
NEAR 15 MPH MAGNITUDES DURING TIMES OF 40 PERCENT OR UNDER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      34  61  40  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  61  41  68  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  58  48  63  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-
     BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
     GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
     MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
     WASHINGTON-WHARTON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-
     BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
     GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
     MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
     WASHINGTON-WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GALVESTON
     BAY-MATAGORDA BAY.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



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