Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 260921
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...COURTESY OF A CUTOFF LOW NEARING
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO
PIECES...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW EJECTING NE TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE
TONIGHT...WHILST ITS SRN PERIPHERY EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE CWA TO
NEAR NWRN OLD MEXICO BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL AID TO PUSH DOWN A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE
FAR NRN TX PANHANDLE PER 08Z METARS. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /15-20 MPH/ AND IN FACT IS PROGGED TO
SUBSIDE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES THE NRN FRINGES OF THE CWA THIS
AFTN...DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...AFFECT THE CENTRAL ZONES BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND CLEAR THE CWA AOA MIDNIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THE HRRR...NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL DISPLAY LIGHT QPF
SIGNALS ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. SLIGHT MID-LEVEL
ASCENT COUPLED WITH MOISTENING SOUNDING PROFILES AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE LIKELY THE REASONS BEHIND LIGHT PRECIP BEING DISPLAYED.
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE STARTING OFF RELATIVELY DRY /PWATS LESS THAN
0.30 INCHES/ IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN
UP. THUS...VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE WILL BE FAVORED VERSUS MORE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE AT ITS PEAK FROM 27/00Z-12Z...AS THE
CUTOFF LOW BRUSHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION AND ITS SRN
PERIPHERY NEARS THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND IS
POSSIBLY THE REASON FOR A FEW FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOWING DISMAL
PRECIP IN BOTH COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS HENCE COINCIDING WITH
THE BEST PWATS. SNOW AND A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL BE THE PRECIP TYPE
ON THE CAPROCK THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ALL SNOW ON THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT...VERSUS LIQUID INITIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHICH WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NRN SOUTH
PLAINS AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHILE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
S-SW SFC WINDS OCCURS ELSEWHERE /AHEAD THE FRONT/...TEMPS WILL RANGE
FORM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING
FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS SETTLED OVER MUCH OF
NORTH AMERICA...AND UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME EVEN MORE BROADLY
CYCLONIC WITH TIME. THAT WILL ALLOW COLD AIR OVER THE NW
TERRITORIES AND NORTH OF ALASKA TO FINALLY BREAK SWD. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE AND
TRENDING MUCH CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT FOR TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE APPROACH OF A CLOSED LOW FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN INCRESED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WHICH
COULD BEGIN TO LIFT TEMPS TOWARD THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL KEEP A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THAT CLOSED LOW COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE FCST
AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ENOUGH TO COVER
FOR NOW. PRECIP PHASE COULD BECOME A PROBLEM IF WARMER SOLUTIONS
END UP WINNING OUT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION ONLY AS SNOW SINCE
FAVORING COLDER COLUMN.

CLOSER TO THE NEAR TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED SHEARING UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP
DISSIPATE. TEMPS TO BE QUITE COOL BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY BUT
WARM SUNDAY TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THEN WILL BE WAITING
FOR THE COLD AIR ARRIVAL...MODEL TIMING BEGINNING TO HOME IN ON
MONDAY DAYTIME HOURS LIKELY RESULTING IN A NORTH-SOUTH HIGH TEMP
GRADIENT. FINALLY...STILL CANNOT DISCOUNT POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE AND
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE COLD DOME OF AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  16  34  17  47 /  20  20  10   0   0
TULIA         47  20  36  19  49 /  10  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  22  38  20  49 /  10  20  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  23  39  22  50 /  10  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  23  40  22  50 /  10  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  26  40  25  49 /  10  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    58  26  40  24  50 /  10  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  27  40  23  52 /   0  20  10   0   0
SPUR          64  27  41  25  51 /   0  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     66  32  42  27  51 /   0  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07




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