Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 192341
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
641 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should prevail with low level flow remaining mostly
veered. Still expecting another very shallow intrusion of
moisture northward impacting KLBB and KPVW late tonight and early
Monday, but solutions indicate only minor visibility reduction,
probably greater than 6 miles. Surface trough will be in place
again Monday. Perhaps may need to assess again isolated thunder
chances along a splintered dryline - appearing in two regions
Monday - as another hot day may be able to result in isolated very
high-based convection late in the day. RMcQueen

&&

.UPDATE...
An earlier update accounted for the isolated thunderstorms that
developed late this afternoon within the dryline zone; these will
be dissipating within the next hour. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Hot temperatures will persist into Monday as an upper level ridge
with anomalously high heights will remain overhead. Thicknesses
are progged to increase the next 24 hours and with a warm
overnight period expected, highs tomorrow should push 2-4 degrees
warmer than those of today in line with MOS values. It could be
even warmer if there were a significant downslope component in
play, but a weak surface trough will shift southward through the
Panhandle which will in turn weaken the surface pressure gradient
across the forecast area. Winds should be less than 15 mph through
the day with the possible exception of the southern Rolling
Plains, the part of the area farthest from the trough, but there
winds should be mainly from the south to southwest. Only other
item to note is the WRF-NAM that produces some light QPF near
Childress late tomorrow and the TTU-WRF that produces similar
precip in the vicinity of Plains and Denver City. A pseudo-dryline
should be draped across the forecast area Monday afternoon with
the possibility of some low level confluence or convergence.
However, the cap looks strong enough to hold. Will likely see some
modest cumulus near that moisture gradient, possibly similar in
fashion the line of CU developing to the west of Lubbock this
afternoon. At this time precip chances look very slim and will
keep mention out of the forecast.

LONG TERM...
The latest iteration of the GFS and ECMWF have come into better
agreement regarding the timing and track of the late week storm
system. Before then though, it looks like another day of near record
heat on Tuesday as breezy and dry downsloping winds overspread much
of the area. A storm system tracking across the Great Lakes will
send a backdoor front this way though the latest NWP suggest this
front won`t edge into the far northeast zones until late afternoon.
The cooler airmass will spread across the remainder of the CWA
Tuesday evening/night with low clouds and cooler temperatures in its
wake. After a cloudy start to Wednesday clouds should gradually
scatter out from southwest to northeast through the day, though
up around Childress the low clouds could hang on most or all of
the day. The combination of the modestly cooler airmass along with
a bout of cloud cover and upslope flow will help keep
temperatures about 20 degrees cooler than Tuesday, though they
will still be above average with most spots experiencing highs in
the 70s.

Attention will then turn to the system that will be approaching
via the Desert Southwest. Cyclogenesis in advance of this wave
coupled with the departing surface ridging will tighten the
gradient locally with gusty southerly winds developing on the day
Thursday. We could see another bout of morning stratus as moisture
return begins in earnest. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF now show a closed
low near the Four Corners by 00Z Friday with a Pacific Front
encountering the dryline near the TX/NM line as lift with the
approaching system begins to spread over the region. If these
solutions were to verify scattered thunderstorms would likely
develop near/across the western zones late Thursday afternoon or
Thursday evening and then race eastward, potentially organizing
into a line, as they spread across the CWA through the night.
Although the magnitude of the moisture return and instability is
still somewhat in question, enough lift and wind shear could also
support the threat for severe storms Thursday afternoon/evening.
After strong southerly winds Thursday afternoon, stout westerly
winds, becoming northerly later in the day, will be likely as the
closed low lifts out into the central plains on Friday. We have
boost our gridded wind speeds above blended guidance toward MOS
levels from Thursday afternoon through Friday with this in mind.
Relatively tranquil and somewhat cooler weather will conclude the
extended, though temperatures will still most likely remain on the
warm side of average.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/99/05



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