Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 181132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
632 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

VFR conditions will persist the next 24 hours. Any isolated
t-storm cells that develop across the area this afternoon are
unlikely to impact the terminals.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/

Early morning water vapor imagery clearly shows drier mid-level air
spreading into West Texas from the east. This will continue as the
upper ridge over the central plains bridges with higher heights over
the Four Corners. The subsidence and drier air aloft infiltrating
the region will further limit the already paltry convective coverage
that we saw on Monday, with PoPs residing below 10 percent today.
The ridge will hold sway over the South Plains through the rest
of the week providing hot and dry conditions. Highs in the middle
90s will be common on the Caprock while temperatures edge toward
or slightly above the triple digit mark over the lower elevations.

The upper high will eventually weaken as the center shifts toward
the middle Mississippi River Valley late in the week. The shifting
ridge coupled with a robust shortwave trough traversing southwest
and south-central Canada will allow the monsoonal fetch of moisture
to shift east and northeastward. As the deeper moisture and relative
weakness aloft shifts toward the region storm chances will be
renewed locally. Initially we could see thunderstorms return to the
western/northwestern zones Saturday, with storm chances gradually
expanding eastward over much of the CWA Sunday into Monday. A
sharpening mid-level trough may eventually swing across the Great
Lakes Sunday into Monday, with an associated cold front sagging
into the plains early next week. At this point it looks like the
frontal zone may come up short of West Texas, but it will have to
be watched as it could further enhance rain chances while also
providing minor cooling. For now we have slight chance to low
chance PoPs Sunday and Monday with temperatures dipping back to or
slightly below average by early next week.




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