Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 280831
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
331 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR WEST HAS FLATTENED OUT A BIT THUS RESULTING
IN WNW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA RIDGE IS DUE TO AN UA SHORTWAVE THAT HAS
TRACKED ENE FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SAGGING SWRD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF KAMA AS OF 08Z.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...COURTESY OF ADEQUATE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. NOT ONLY ARE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN SHOWING
CONSENSUS WRT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT /IMPINGING ON THE NRN
ZONES ANYWHERE FROM 12-18Z/ BUT ARE ALSO HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE
SPATIAL EXTENT OF PRECIP...THUS MAKING IT HARD TO HANG YOUR HAT ON
ANY ONE PARTICULAR SOLUTION. NONETHELESS...IF THE CURRENT SPEED OF
THE FRONT DOES NOT SLOW DOWN MUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE /AS HINTED
AT BY THE RAP SOLUTION/ AND THEREFORE PROGGED TO GET HUNG UP DURING
THE DAYTIME /ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE/...HENCE NOT QUITE CLEARING THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. SOLUTIONS DO EXHIBIT PRECIP ORIENTED FROM THE
SWRN ZONES TO THE NERN ZONES ALONG THE FRONT...THOUGH AS STATE
EARLIER...SOME SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT MORE BULLISH IN ITS SPATIAL
EXTENT AND QPF AMOUNTS. WILL THEREFORE HOLD ON TO BEST POPS BEING
SHOWN FROM SW TO NE...WITH LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION
MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS GENERATING BRIEF WIND GUSTS...BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW GIVEN BEST UL SUPPORT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

BEING THAT THE COLD FRONT IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG /AS 850 MB TEMPS DO
NOT DROP TERRIBLY LOW/ IT WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD COMING UP. THE LONG WAVE UPPER AIR PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY THE SAME THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND RIDGING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE WILL LEAVE HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA OF A MAGNITUDE THAT SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO FAR OVER SEASONAL NORMS. ONLY OTHER
ISSUE IS POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY AFTN AND EVENING PRECIP IN THE
NWRN COUNTIES VCNTY OF SFC TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE FAVORED. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM
AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        87  61  89  61 /  20  20  10   0
TULIA         90  62  91  61 /  30  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     89  63  91  63 /  30  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /  30  30  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  65  92  65 /  30  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   93  63  91  63 /  20  30  10   0
BROWNFIELD    94  65  92  65 /  20  30  10   0
CHILDRESS     96  69  96  68 /  30  20  10   0
SPUR          98  69  94  67 /  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT    100  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07



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