Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 131733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1133 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours with light surface


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/

The surface ridge behind the cold front that arrived yesterday
will gradually settle a bit further southwest this morning before
starting to slide off east into the Central Plains by this
afternoon. This will result in a cool start to the day but surface
wind will start to veer back to the south to southwest across the
Caprock by mid-day. Ample sunshine, daytime mixing, and the south
to southwest wind should allow temperatures to warm into the low
50s near the TX/NM state line while the cold airmass will be a bit
deeper across the Rolling Plains taking longer to mix out so highs
will remain in the low 40s.

Northwesterly flow aloft will keep dry conditions in place until
late tomorrow into Monday morning when low-level moisture will
work northward ahead of the next cold front to push towards the
region. This front is still expected to arrive in the northern
part of the forecast area sometime Monday morning into Monday
afternoon then push south into the Permian Basin by sunset. Models
continue to show that we could see breezy conditions behind the
front but the trend of increasing wind speeds has stopped for now.
The GFS tries to develop some light precipitation across the
Rolling Plains Monday night behind the front but any low-level
moisture will have been pushed south leaving behind a very dry
boundary layer. Mid-level moisture may be enough to get some
precipitation to develop as a weak shortwave moves across the
region, but the dry sub-cloud layer should result in most, if not
all, of the precipitation evaporating before reaching the ground.
Will keep PoPs below mention for now but will need to continue to
watch for Monday night into Tuesday morning for the possibility of
some form of very light frozen precipitation across the Rolling

Cold airmass will be entrenched across the area on Tuesday keeping
highs at or below freezing from Interstate-27/U.S. 87 east with
mid 30s west of those roads. Temperatures will then slowly warm
through Friday with a series of weak troughs or closed lows moving
near or over the forecast area. The GFS is trending towards a
closed low that the ECMWF has had for the last two days for
Thursday although the GFS still has a more northern track than the
Euro. Friday will be the warmest day next week as shortwave
ridging moves across the forecast area ahead of the next storm
system for next weekend.





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