Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 301041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH IN THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY. WHILE THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST IS THE PRIMARY CONTROLLING FACTOR IN THE
FORECAST...IT HAS WEAKENED AND ALLOWED MORE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVE IN TO THE AREA. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WAS JUST
ENOUGH TO HELP SUSTAIN WEAK CONVECTION EARLIER THIS PAST EVENING.
SURFACE OBS AT 07Z SHOW A WEAK SURFACE TROF/BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HIGHER RES MODELS...AS
THEY DID EARLY YESTERDAY MORNING...ARE HINTING AT MORE POPCORN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM...ARE ALSO HINTING AT INCREASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT
LASTS JUST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OTHER MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE BORDERS OF THE FA TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WHICH CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND IN THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY
COOLER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY AS SURFACE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL UPSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS
WILL RAND FROM THE MID 80S/LOW 90S ON THE CAPROCK TO THE MID/UPPER
90S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
PRIMARY CHANGE IN THIS MORNING/S DATA CENTERS AROUND A DIVERGENCE IN
CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD OF THE MORPHOLOGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
TO OUR WEST. THE ECM FLAVORS KEEP THE HIGH CENTER WEST OF US
WHEREAS THE GFS BRINGS IT BACK TO NEARLY OVERHEAD. ALL IN
ALL...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT OF DIFFERENCE BUT SOME VARIANCE IN THE
PLACEMENT ERRORS OF THE MONSOON ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE WITH WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC REGIMES A BLENDED APPROACH IS
PROBABLY INDICATED. THE FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE A TROUGH AXIS
ROUGHLY PARALLEL AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKAN SOUTHERN COAST AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND IMPINGES UPON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH...IT IS SUSPECTED THAT THE IMPACT TO OUR WEATHER MAY BECOME A
BIT MORE CLEAR.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG
TERM 12Z/FRI ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REGIME APPEARS TO SUPPORT MCS MOVING OFF THE RATON MESA. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PORTRAYS THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST OFTEN...THE AREA OF BEST RAINFALL EXISTS
FURTHER WEST AND HAVE TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS OVER THE BLEND. RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BIT OF A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED. MORE
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME ACTIVITY COULD EDGE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
APPEAR TO BE DRIER ONCE AGAIN WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THE UNCERTAINTY
IN HIGH PRESSURE MORPHOLOGY COULD BRING SOME STORMS ACROSS OUR
NORTH. BEYOND TUESDAY...WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  65  84  66 /  20  30  20  30
TULIA         87  67  84  67 /  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     88  67  86  67 /  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     90  68  91  69 /  20  20  10  20
LUBBOCK       90  70  91  70 /  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   91  68  92  68 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    91  70  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     96  75  91  72 /  20  20  20  20
SPUR          96  72  94  71 /  20  20  20  20
ASPERMONT    100  75  98  73 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/26/



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