Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 170422

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1122 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A small chance still exists for light fog development at KCDS and
possibly KLBB early Friday morning however chances are too low to
mention any restrictions beyond VFR in the TAF. Low level wind
shear at KCDS will be swept out by a fast moving cold front mid
morning Friday which will boost northeasterly winds through the


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017/

An upper level short wave trough will continue east-southeast across
Saskatchewan tonight and Manitoba early Friday before moving into
the Minnesota Arrowhead late Friday. That is pretty far to the
north. But an emanating cold front will drag southward across our
area near or just shortly after daybreak Friday. Surface low
pressure overhead tonight, with generally mild conditions, and a
shallow moisture intrusion, is expected to lead to patchy fog
southern and eastern zones late tonight and early Friday. Short term
forecast solutions have not been playing up the fog potential much,
but experiential base suggests it`s a good idea to mention fog in
this pattern. We have expanded fog mention onto the Caprock over
southern zones. North-northeast winds will gust behind the front up
to 20-25 mph, and cool advection will drop highs modestly Friday,
especially across northern zones. Still, Friday should turn into a
decent day with highs overall mid 70s to mid 80s. RMcQueen

Friday evening begins with a cold front stalling near I-20 as cool
surface ridging slowly wanes through the night. This process will
spur a steady influx of low level moisture and saturation resulting
in yet another morning of low clouds for Saturday. Isentropic ascent
is next to nil, but near surface moisture channeling westward looks
fully sufficient for abundant low clouds and maybe fog. Persistence
of these cool easterlies could keep A.M. clouds intact through early
afternoon, so will keep highs close to the cooler NAM.

Passage of an upper ridge by early Sunday will precede impressive
thickness gains and breezy SW winds by midday. Ensemble MOS has been
consistent in progging anomalous high temps at or above record
values in Lubbock, which fits well with an overall dearth of high
clouds that would otherwise stunt deep mixing. This exceptional
warmth is shown by the ECM to extend and strengthen on Mon, but
remaining guidance has shown good continuity with a dry cold front
arriving during the day via a more amplified trough in the northern
CONUS. This disparity in FROPA timing between models becomes a moot
point by Tue as models stall the boundary to our south, before
retreating north ahead of moist S-SE winds. Quality of this Gulf
moisture does not appear overly impressive for late March standards,
especially with an unseasonably warm EML progged in deep SW flow.
However, the pattern this many days out of a deepening trough in SW
flow supports keeping some variation of the Superblend`s PoPs for
Wed and Wed night.




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