Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 311130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AT 10-14 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR WEST CONTINUED TO EXPAND EWRD ACROSS THE
REGION...THUS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY FURTHER PROVES THE DOMINANCE OF THE SAID UA
RIDGE...AS IT EXHIBITED DRY AIR IN THE  MID-UPPER LEVELS HAVING
FILTERED ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WRN-HALF OF TX IN THE LAST 24-HRS.
ALTHOUGH SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN A BIT THIS AFTN /WHICH WILL
ENCOURAGE SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS/...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND SERN CO...GIVEN
WEAK WRLY MEAN FLOW /5-10 KTS/ AND THE FLOW ALOFT NOT BEING
CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE PRESENCE OF
THE UA RIDGE AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 TEMPS SUGGESTS ANOTHER WARM
DAY IS ON TAP /90S/ FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY WARM NIGHT /60S AND
70S/.

LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST AGAIN THIS MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
AT BAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE
SHOULD SHIFT EWD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO MOVE INTO THE WRN
ZONES...SHIFTING AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY. TEMPS NEAR MOS AND MODEL
BLEND...NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...FINE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  63  88  63 /   0  10  10  10
TULIA         91  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     91  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     91  64  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       93  67  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   91  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    92  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          95  68  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     98  71  95  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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