Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 230804
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
304 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A pair of upper level short wave troughs moving rotating
southeastward around an upper low located over Hudson Bay will
help break down the eastern end of the persistent ridge over the
southwestern states the next 24 to 48 hours. This will allow the
influx of much cooler air into the forecast area later today with
cloud cover and easterly low level flow helping to keep
temperatures below normal through the weekend. The Hudson Bay low
will open up and eject eastward early next week while an upper
trough will move onto the southwest coast of Canada. These two
features will flatten the upper ridge across the West while also
allowing the eastern end of it to bulge back to the east
increasing heights and thicknesses across the southern High
Plains. So, in a nutshell, cooler and potentially wetter weather
this weekend will be replaced by hot and dry weather toward the
middle of next week.

The cold front that will usher in the cooler air is entering the
Oklahoma Panhandle from southwestern Kansas at the time of this
writing. It should be into the northern row of the forecast area
around 9 to 10 AM and to the southern row around mid-afternoon.
This should limit thunderstorm chances to a narrow window across
the southern tier this afternoon. This front should also cut off
storm chances on the high terrain to our west. However, the models
continue to produce some fairly widespread precip tonight. The GFS
seems to be succumbing to its post-front bias while the WRF-NAM is
somewhat alone in producing an extensive area of precipitation
across western and central Oklahoma, the western extent of which
gets into the Rolling Plains. It`s hard to pinpoint what is
driving this precipitation production, possibly a weak impulse in
the mid level flow rotating across the 4-corners this morning
which may interact with an elevated frontal surface. Will not be
as bullish with precip chances as objective guidance, tailoring
PoPs from around 20 west to 40 east.

Precipitation chances should get a bump for the weekend. We could
see some daytime convection, although extensive cloud cover will
keep surface-based instability limited. The moist, upslope flow
could help with some initiation, and if not in the forecast area,
then just west with the mid-level flow driving them eastward
through the forecast area. The upper support looks better Sunday
night than Saturday night, but both are worthy of at least chance
PoPs. Monday could be a repeat before the eastward-building ridge
puts a lid on rain chances.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07



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