Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 280948

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
348 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Breezy overnight winds will give way to another windy day across our
area to begin the work week. Current WV imagery shows well defined
vort advection pushing south out of SE CO into NE NM out ahead of a
progressive and deepening trough that will move across southern AZ
and NM overnight and arrive on the I20 corridor to our south by
sunrise. A broader upper level trough will develop behind the
aforementioned disturbance with numerous embedded shortwaves
transecting the Texas Panhandle and West Texas over next 36 hours.

Primary concern is potential need for Wind Advisory and/or Fire
Weather concerns. As of right now we`ve decided to lay off either
at the moment. Southwest corner of our CWA will see the largest
swath of strong winds but will likely fall just below minimum
criteria of sustained for one hour or more. Though, gusts and 10
minute averages may certainly reach that level. Kept inherited
patchy blowing dust given how quickly we dried out yesterday. As
cooler air to the north spreads south with deepening and
broadening trough throughout the day our high temps will remain at
or slightly below seasonal norms mid 50s to mid 60s from NW to SE
across our area. Given lack of increased heating expected from
strong surface westerlies, RH values should remain just above
minimums for any fire weather products as well. Overnight lows
into Tuesday won`t drop off as much, with surface winds remaining
elevated overnight with jet max overhead.

One more breezy day is in store Tuesday as the closed low over the
northern Plains begins to fill and eject eastward. With the
ejection of the low toward the Great Lakes a cold front will move
through the forecast area Tuesday night. Lingering cyclonic flow
aloft and light northwesterly low level flow suggests temperatures
on Wednesday a bit cooler than normal. Slight moderation of the
air mass is expected Thursday as low-amplitude upper ridge moves
overhead and low level flow returns to the southwest.

However, the main issue in the long term part of the forecast is a
low that is progged to take shape over northern Mexico Friday and
its evolution through the weekend. WPC in their extended
discussion this morning mentions the anomalous strength of this
progged system, but they also mention the wide spread in model
solutions that leads to low confidence in the forecast. Of note is
the EC and UK models that open the system up early while the GFS,
Canadian, the GFS ensemble mean, and a majority of the GFS
ensemble perturbations keep a closed low well to our southwest
then opening up rapidly as it ejects toward Texas late weekend or
early next week. For now have leaned toward the local model blend
and WPC solutions that favor the GFS-type scenario. That would
favor a warm-conveyor belt precipitation event developing as early
as Friday afternoon once the upper ridge shifts just to our east
and with the best precipitation chances Friday night and Saturday.
This has been fairly consistent, but given uncertainties will
continue to shy away from likely PoPs this far out. Playing out
this scenario further would see precipitation chances phasing much
lower Saturday night and Sunday before possibly returning just
outside the scope of the forecast period as the low ejects
eastward. Have continued to simplify the precipitation phase
forecast. The details of temperatures at the surface and aloft this
far out are still sketchy. It seems apparent that there will not
be a connection of cold air to the north, so it will depend on
ambient cold air associated with this southern branch storm
system. Given this reasoning and the time of year (early
December), this could be anything from a cold rain to "warm" snow
to some sort of mix. There is still a lot to sort out.


Strong westerlies will develop again later this afternoon. With
seasonal to slightly cooler than normal highs expected we`ve decided
to hold off on any Fire Weather products as RH minimums should
remain above minimum criteria. If temps begin to trend warmer than
forecast this would likely change.




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