Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 221712
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1212 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.AVIATION...
A very low amplitude short wave trough noted on water vapor
imagery moving northeastward across northern Chihuahua into Far
West Texas should spawn isolated to scattered TS this afternoon
and early evening. Expect best chance and greatest coverage to be
south and east of the terminals, but some model solutions are
showing the potential for storms to reach KLBB and KPVW. Have left
out mention from the TAFs for now. Will reevaluate as the
afternoon wears on. Only other note is low cloud potential Tuesday
morning. WRF-NAM bullish as usual, this time for KCDS. No other
model support at this time. Have also left this mention out with
two other issuances remaining before possible impacts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

AVIATION...
Low stratus moving in from the west to affect LBB and PVW this
morning through about 15Z, after which a return to VFR conditions
is expected. A slight chance of thunderstorms exists this
afternoon, mainly for LBB, but chances are too low to make TAF
mention attm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Our cold front from Saturday morning was still draped from the Rio
Grande across southeast Texas as of early Monday morning, though the
shower activity was not nearly prolific as it was just 24 hours ago.
We`ll be watching for this front to make a move northward today as a
warm front, and just how far north it returns will determine our
rain chances. Models have backed off significantly from the past few
days for areal coverage, and it appears the front may make it just
far enough north to affect our southeastern zones where PWAT values
will remain around 1.5". Elsewhere, PWATs of 1" or less and mid/low
level moisture being slower to return, rainfall will be harder to
come by. An upper level high does start to develop late today over
the southeastern U.S. which will help to begin rotating moisture
into area by Tuesday morning. That should serve as good news later
in the week, so not all hope is lost on the lack of rainfall chances
today.

Southerly winds this afternoon will pick up to around 15 mph on the
Caprock. Unlike last night and this morning where winds have been
nearly calm, thanks to a 35-40 mph LLJ overnight, those afternoon
winds likely won`t settle down too much. So, though humidity will be
on the increase tomorrow night, fog shouldn`t be a problem.

LONG TERM...
A shortwave trough is expected to be oriented NE/SW across the
desert southwest into Colorado on Tuesday morning as it attempts to
phase with a low over Saskatchewan.  The anticylonic curvature now
looks to hang out to our west into next weekend before the feature
becomes a bit hard to really resolve at the H5 level.  All the
while, southwesterly flow aloft will persist as we remain on the
NWRN fringe of high pressure across the SE CONUS.  As trends started
showing yesterday, West Texas will be in the favorable lift quadrant
of H2 speed max on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday before the
speed max finally makes its way to the NERN USA. This orientation is
much better defined in model guidance than in previous nightly runs
and it points to more opportunity for thunderstorms.  The weekend is
looking less favorable from a synoptic forcing perspective though
the monsoon will likely have some influence.

An interesting thing about Tuesday is the indication of the low
level (H8 and below) moisture being swept eastward in the afternoon.
Model solutions vary widely so it`s really difficult to nail down
exactly how things will evolve.  Most of the guidance points toward
some scattered activity in the morning and widely disparate answers
for the afternoon.  So, will largely continue the same generic
outlook on Tuesday calling for scattered storms.  Wednesday
continues the scattered storm trend but at this point, models have
shifted toward favoring the western half of the area.  Now,
Wednesday night into Thursday becomes a bit more interesting.  There
still exist the cold front working its way into the CWFA and
stalling out.  This morning`s runs have shifted the stall zone
northward a bit perhaps favoring the TX Panhandle.  However, given
the track record of guidance over the previous two frontal
systems...have only low to moderate confidence in southward
progress.  Friday, Saturday and Sunday may end up being a more
scattered though the details will almost certainly not be
resolved for several more days.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

07


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