Area Forecast Discussion
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714
FXUS64 KLUB 272249
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
549 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A CHANCE
FOR TSRA EXISTS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH CDS HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR EXPERIENCING
CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE THIS EARLY INTO THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...
AFTER OUR VERY PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL
CHANGE...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL DIVE INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...WEST TEXAS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN
THE POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH EXTENDING AT 18Z FROM MMTJ-TUC-ABQ-TAD-
GLD-MKC AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET FROM MMLP-MMDO-KBRO.  WHILE WE ARE
ADMITTEDLY ON THE SUBSIDENT QUADRANT ON THE POLAR JET...WE ARE IN AN
AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IN THE EXIT REGIONS OF THE PLURALITY OF THE JET
MAXES.  IN ADDITION...MOST GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE MEAN FLOW THAT SHOWS UP NICELY IN Q-VECTOR
ANALYSIS.  AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AIDED BY PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...WE
SHOULD SEE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THICK CAPE VALUES OF 2-3KJ/KG WITH 30-40 KT SHEAR.  DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL ONE LOOKS AT...THE CONVECTIVE MODE VARIES
SUBSTANTIALLY BUT AN DISCRETE INITIALIZATION APPEARS REASONABLE WITH
A TRANSITION DURING THE EVENING.

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
REGION HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIFT WILL EXIST ALONG THE
ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THIS LIFT WILL BE COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A RETREATING DRYLINE AND A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 40 AND 45KT
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO CREATE CHANCES OF
SEVERE HAIL. CIPS ANALOG CONTINUES TO INDICATE NON-ZERO CHANCES OF
SEVERE STORMS BUT PLACES THE REGION FARTHER TO THE EAST WITH EACH
MODEL RUN.

A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO/TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG DRY SLOTTING TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAVE THE SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE IN LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
DRYLINE CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING REMOISTENING LOW LEVELS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING LEADING TO A PERIOD OF
COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE MEN MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK...THE LATEST MEXMOS HAS COME IN TO BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH ECMWF MOS SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
60S. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
US THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY RENEW CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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