Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 262029
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER NEARLY CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS DAY IS OCCURRING. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS TAKING A SLIGHT JOG TO THE EAST TODAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO TOMORROW. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DESPITE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
RIDGE...STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW THIS EVENING AND
ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER TOMORROW. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL BEND TOWARDS THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING POTENTIAL ISOLATED STORMS CLOSER TO THE FA.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A TOUCH COOLER TOMORROW DUE
TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES.

.LONG TERM...
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS. HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TO OVER THE OZARKS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
CANADA/U.S. BORDER REGION THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SOMETIME
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL START
TO SLIDE BACK OVER THE REGION WHICH MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SOME AND THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH LESS PRECIPITATION THAN
THE 00Z RUNS. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST TO
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH
WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY HELP SOME STORMS
INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OR
THE MORE TYPICAL SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE IN NEW MEXICO.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WOULD HELP STORMS MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA BUT THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH MAY STILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT. AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE HEAT
MID-WEEK...TEMPERATURES MAY START TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND IF THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.
GRIDS/FORECAST WAS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS MID-WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  94  66  94 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         69  94  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     69  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     70  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  95  69  96 /   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    71  96  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     75  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  98  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     77  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14



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