Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 221107
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
607 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR next 24 hours. Although tame by West Texas standards, winds
will become a bit breezy and perhaps gusty this afternoon. We may
see some low clouds move in around sunrise Friday, but will omit
mention this time around.  Check density altitude.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Upper level high over Texas will start to feel the pinch of an
approaching upper level low which should make its way to the Great
Basin by 12Z Friday.  The best dynamics should still be to our WNW
though the tightening gradient aloft will start to increase
southwesterly winds.  Interestingly...a strengthening Pacific Coast
ridge will evolve the morphology of the trough axis to be quite
compressed from east to west.  Thunderstorm activity should remain
west of the area again today--confined mainly to the mountains of
NM.  As we go into Friday morning, the Gulf of Mexico moisture
starts to open up in response to decreasing surface pressure along
the lee trough.

LONG TERM...
The low currently over the Pacific coast should be centered over UT
by Friday afternoon before it swings northeastward to MT by early
Saturday. A lee trof ahead of the low will bring in surface moisture
from the Gulf through Saturday. The first shot at precip will be
Friday night across our northwestern zones along the lee trof.
Chances will increase Saturday afternoon mainly across the Rolling
Plains as the surface trof pushes eastward allowing surface
convergence to trigger convection. Lift will be enhanced by upper
level diffluence as the FA will be on the southern edge of an upper
level jet. As has been the norm lately, models diverge with the
forecasted upper level pattern Saturday night and beyond. The ECMWF
pinches a closed low off the southern edge of the upper level trof
and keeps it parked to our southwest. This allows for greater upper
level lift and greater chances for rain. This is reminiscent of
earlier model runs the past weekend. The GFS stays true to what it
has shown over the past few days by keeping the closed low across
the Dakotas and quickly pushing the trof axis east of the FA by
Tuesday. While the GFS shuts rain chances off by Sunday afternoon,
it shows pretty decent amounts of upper level divergence as a result
of still being under the entrance region of the jet. As forecast
soundings still show a moist atmosphere some rain should still be
possible. While not biting off on the ECMWF yet with an episode of
heavy rain, chance PoPs will be kept in the forecast Sunday
afternoon for areas on the Caprock and likely PoPs across the
Rolling Plains.

The cold front is expected to push through the FA around Sunday
afternoon and will bring with it much cooler temps and breezy winds.
MOS guidance is continuing to hint at near to above 30 mph winds
Sunday morning into the afternoon across our northwestern zones.
Given the strength of the forecasted front winds have been bumped up
to the 25-30 mph range for areas on the Caprock. Temps continue to
be on a downward trend as cloud cover looks to linger into early
next week and winds stay out of the north. Highs for Monday will be
in the mid 60s/low 70s and lows Tuesday morning ranging from 40 to
50. Temps should warm up to around seasonal average by Wednesday and
Thursday as skies clear and winds turn back to the south.

Aldrich

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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