Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 271143
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
643 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTHWARD THROUGH KCDS BRINGING A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING...AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD
ALSO AFFECT KLBB. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE TERMINALS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES RESIDING AT
KCDS. EVEN SO...CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACT REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE
SHAPE TODAY/TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID-SUMMER UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING DIGS PROGRESSIVELY
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO SHIFT
WESTWARD EVER SO SLOWLY. EVEN SO...THE UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS
DICTATED THE WEATHER AND BROUGHT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION RECENTLY WILL NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN JUST YET. STILL...DEEP LAYER THICKNESSES AND
PROGGED LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO COOL SLIGHTLY...SO HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL PEAK
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EDGE IN
THIS MORNING AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LOOSE DEFINITION THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
INTO TONIGHT.

THE LATEST ROUND OF NWP INDICATES THAT THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
/SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES/ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE IT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. IF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR ANY OUTFLOW
PUSHES ALONG IT...CAN MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES...A FEW
HIGH-BASED SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD GRACE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO... WHERE A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
NM/CO CONVECTION MAY LAST LATE INTO TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BEST THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHIFT AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE ALOFT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOO. GIVEN THIS...AT
LEAST LOW THUNDER CHANCES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID-60S NEAR FRIONA TO MID-70S AROUND
ASPERMONT.

LONG TERM...
..A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...

THE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD BE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME ONGOING ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN ZONES. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
SET UP A FAVORABLE AXIS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON RUNNING ALONG AN ARC FROM NE NM TO THE SRN ROLLING
PLAINS PER THE 00 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...OR THE BOUNDARY
MAY SURGE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND TAKING THE FOCUS FOR
CI WITH IT PER MUCH OF THE HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE. NO CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS POINT BUT WE HAVE RECONFIGURED POPS FROM FAVORING THE NORTH
MORE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
TAKE THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW TUE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT
AND/OR TRAINING CELLS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NO FIRM INDICATION AT THIS POINT. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BACK TO OUR
NW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SRN
ROCKIES INDUCING WIDESPREAD STORMS FROM NRN NM ON NORTH...ALTHOUGH
WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STORM ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX WHICH WILL PROGRESS SWED INTO
WESTERN OKLA WED...WITH LESSER COVERAGE/CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COOL SURGE...LIKELY OUTFLOW-AIDED...WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING
AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER AREA-WIDE THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS THURS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
WITH THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST. A GRADUAL
EWD DRIFT MAY EDGE THE UPPER RIDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA WHILE A
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS KEEPS THE SUPPLY OF
COOLER AIR FLOWING IN. IN THIS PATTERN...THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DESERT SW INTO THE 4-CORNERS
REGION AND CENTRAL NM WHERE AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRPAHIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME DIURNAL
ACTIVITY COULD CREEP TOWARD THE STATE LINE EACH EVENING...BUT
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRI-SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  85  64  85 /  20  30  40  40  40
TULIA         92  67  84  65  84 /  20  30  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     93  67  86  65  85 /  10  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     97  68  89  64  90 /  10  10  30  20  30
LUBBOCK       99  70  89  68  89 /  10  10  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   97  69  91  66  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    99  69  91  66  91 /  10  10  30  20  20
CHILDRESS    102  71  88  69  86 /  10  30  30  40  40
SPUR         102  72  92  68  89 /  10  10  30  30  30
ASPERMONT    103  74  95  70  90 /   0  10  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23





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