Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 201126
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES BUT NOT AFFECT
THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN ITS BURGEONING EXTENSION TODAY AND WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES.
DESPITE THIS EXPANDING RIDGE...CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INITIATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO LESS COVERAGE THAN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTION WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH...INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST AS ROBUST AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH HEALTHY INSTABILITIES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG. SEVERE CHANCES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME A CONSTANT FOR THE
WEEK AHEAD WITH CENTER JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH NOT EXCEEDINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES...AND
SUPPRESSED THUNDER CHANCES. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON
HANDLING OF A WAVE INTO THE MID-WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
SUBSEQUENT PLAY OF A WEAK FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF MORE-SO THIS OUTCOME THAN GFS. ONCE AGAIN WE
WILL PLAY THIS AS A 50-50 SPLIT THOUGH LEAVE OUT THUNDER MENTION
AS HEIGHTS LOOK TOO OPPRESSIVE. AN ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK MAY SEND A MORE
ACTIVE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS IT EMERGES AND DEEPENS IN
THE EASTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND. EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
ARE MAINLY DAY EIGHT AND BEYOND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        95  68  97  67  98 /  10  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  69  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     93  68  97  69  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  71  98  70 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  72  98  72  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   96  71  98  70  99 /  10  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    96  71  99  71 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     95  73 100  73 103 /  10   0  10  10   0
SPUR          96  73 100  71 101 /  10   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT    100  74 101  74 102 /  10   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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