Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 162324
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPANDING NORTH A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
LEADING TO A DECK NEAR 4000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND AT KLBB AND SOON
TO SPREAD TO KPVW. SATELLITE AND RAP SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BREAK SKIRTING CLOSE TO BOTH KLBB AND KPVW BY MID EVENING BUT
UNCLEAR IF CEILING WILL BREAK...CHOSE TO KEEP A CONSTANT LAYER FOR
NOW. THIS LAYER SHOULD SPREAD INTO KCDS AS WELL BY MID EVENING.
SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED IMPULSE CROSSING NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME AND NOW FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH RAP AND
WRF/NAM NOW DEPICT MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING OF CLOUD
DECKS FOR KPVW AND KLBB NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AS
WELL AS SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEARBY. WE WILL WATCH SOLUTION TRENDS
ON THIS AND DECIDE BY THE 06Z TAF IF SHOWERS AND A CLOUD DECK
LOWERING TO NEAR THE BOTTOM OF MVFR LEVELS WORTHY TO INCLUDE FOR
THE NEXT ISSUANCE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH...
LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN CALI/BAJA CALI COAST AS OF EARLY AFTN...TO
SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE FCST OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY END UP OCCURRING
MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AS A BATCH LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH LITTLE HINT
ATTM OF DISSIPATING THIS AFTN. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO HOLD
BACK ACROSS THE WRN CONUS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DAMPENING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND EJECTING EWD THURSDAY. BEFORE THEN AN INITIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND AS
THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE. WRF-NAM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS CLOSER
TO 30 PCT NOT COMPLETELY UNFOUNDED...BUT APPEARS TO PLAY INTO THE
MODEL BIAS OF OVERPRODUCING LIGHT PRECIP WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. ALSO...LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN
DISAPPOINTMENTS RELATIVE TO THE MODEL PROGS AND MOS OUTPUT. THAT
SAID...PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS FINE ATTM WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A LESSER CONCERN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD
NIGHT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MOS LOOKING GOOD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY A BIT
TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND MUCH ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE
TROUGH. SOME SORT OF BLEND BETWEEN MET AND MAV MOS NUMBERS WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE WARMER END IS REASONABLE ATTM.

LONG TERM...
A NEG TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE FA EARLY THURSDAY
WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY PLACED JUST TO OUR EAST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE QUICKLY KICKED OUT OF THE AREA BY AN APPROACHING TROF FROM THE
WEST. OVERALL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A LESS AMPLIFIED TROF BY
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM AND CMC WHICH HAVE A DEEPER AND
SHARPER TROF. MINUS THE CMC...THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
HANDLING THE TROF BETTER IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE BIGGER
DIFFERENCES ARE WITH MOISTURE RETURN/AVAILABILITY. THE GFS IS
SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER HAVING A DRY FORECAST DESPITE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. FOR NOW POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN
FOR FRIDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIP TYPE.
MOST OF THE FA SHOULD SEE LIQUID PRECIP. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WOULD
BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS
ALOFT COOLING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW AS THE AXIS OF THE TROF MOVES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO BELOW FREEZING
BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED
AS SOIL TEMPS WOULD HAVE NO TIME TO RESPOND AND WOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST BY SATURDAY WHILE ANOTHER
TROF...THIS ONE DEEPER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT AS LIFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK DUE
TO THE POS TILT OF THE TROF. THE TROF WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  53  30  53  29 /  10  10   0  10  30
TULIA         32  48  33  51  31 /  10  10   0  10  30
PLAINVIEW     32  50  33  54  32 /  10  10   0  10  30
LEVELLAND     35  57  33  58  32 /  10  10   0  10  30
LUBBOCK       35  55  35  58  34 /  10  10   0  10  30
DENVER CITY   36  58  35  60  35 /  10  10   0  10  30
BROWNFIELD    36  57  35  59  34 /  10  10   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     33  47  36  53  36 /  10  20  10  10  30
SPUR          35  51  37  59  35 /  10  20  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     38  52  39  62  38 /  10  20  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




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