Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 270439
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1139 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.AVIATION...
RATHER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF CYCLE. THERE
WILL BE A RISK OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD DAWN...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL THEN BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS...PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED WITH THE PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT BEING
LOW. THUS...TAFS CONTINUE TO REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHERLY BREEZES THIS CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED OUR REGION WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH RICHER
PWATS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR A QUASI-BAROTROPIC LOW. VISIBLE SATELLITE
CAPTURED A FEW AXES OF AGITATED CU LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE
ROLLING PLAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES...BUT AT BEST RADAR INDICATES ONLY A FEW OF THESE HAVE
MATURED TO VERY BRIEF NEEDLE-NOSE SHOWERS. NONETHELESS...THE TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE FOR A SMALL UPTICK IN PWATS AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS NORTH. THIS WOULD IMPLY SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
SHOWER COVERAGE AND DURATION COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT LIMITED FORCING
AND MEAGER INSTABILITY SUGGEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. WE
DID INTRODUCE ISOLATED TSTORM MENTION OVER ALL BUT THE FAR N-NWRN
COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS WILL BE FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
PWATS.

THERE MAY AGAIN BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FOG ON THE CAPROCK NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THOUGH THIS SCENARIO APPEARS LESS LIKELY NOW AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SHOWN TO REMAIN UP MORE THAN IN PAST DAYS.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH SHOULD ALSO HINDER THIS
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS REASON...SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MODEL TEMPS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS ABOUND FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. WELL
DEFINED LOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE SATURDAY
WHERE IT WILL STALL UNTIL ANOTHER LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS ISLANDS
DROPS OFF THE BC COAST AND PHASES WITH THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM.
INTO MONDAY...THE ORIENTATION OF THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM OPENS AND
TILTS INTO A NEGATIVE CONFIGURATION GREATLY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE SYSTEM ROTATES NEWRD...FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL LATE TUE/WED BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR
WEST AND DRAGS A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH INTO THURSDAY. WED/THU
EXHIBIT SOME INCREASING DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS DISPLAYING ITS
TYPICAL TRANSITION SEASON FAST BIAS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
ODD ISOLATED STORM FIRING IN THE AFTERNOON.  AT THIS POINT...THE
SIGNAL LOOKS QUITE INCOHERENT AND WILL KEEP POPS SILENT.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT INTO GEAR ON MONDAY IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL FIRE ACROSS ERN NM AND MOVE
INTO THE NW PERHAPS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN PROGGED
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DOES APPEAR TO STAY IN NM UNTIL
AFTER 00Z.  MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN
AND WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE POPS UPWARD IN THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING. TUESDAY/S STORM CHANCES ARE A BIT LESS CERTAIN BUT IT
DOES APPEAR SOME MENTION DOES APPEAR WARRANTED. THE STORM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE DECENT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OUT EAST. GUIDANCE
WANTS TO BRING A COLD FRONT IN WEDNESDAY EVENING OR THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING TEMPS PERHAPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  76  56  76  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         56  77  57  79  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     56  77  58  78  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     55  76  58  77  59 /   0  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       57  77  59  78  60 /   0  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   55  76  58  78  59 /   0  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    57  77  58  78  59 /   0  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  83  63  84  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
SPUR          61  81  60  81  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     64  83  61  85  63 /  10  20  20  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23




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