Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 122311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
511 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the period with light winds
becoming easterly tonight.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 208 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/

The region will remain under northwest flow aloft for much of
the forecast period. The only exception will be Wednesday when the
upper level flow becomes more westerly in response to a quick
hitting shortwave trough that will traverse the area.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow in response to a quick
hitting backdoor cold front that will move through the area later
this evening. Sunday, as thicknesses increase, the FA warms to near
normal values. The "warm up" doesn`t last long. Monday a cold front
starts to enter the area in response to a upper level low deepening
over the Great Lakes region. Thus, Monday as the cold front drops
across the CWA a temperature gradient will set up. The northern
portions of the FA will be cooler (highs in the 40s) while the
southern portions will see high temps closer to normal (highs in the
50s). By Tuesday the front will be fully through the region creating
the coolest day of the week. Highs will max out in the 30s area
wide. The current run of the GFS has precip developing along the
eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA. Given the lack of deep
moisture with this system it looks like any precip. that does occur
will be light rain/drizzle. Monday night into Tuesday morning as
temps drop below freezing, freezing drizzle could occur. The ECMWF
has the precip. materializing just east of the area. For now grids
will reflect low POPs and QPFs until models come into more agreement
on this system.

A warming trend will begin mid week through the end of the week as
southerly surface flow helps warm the area.




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