Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 220918

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
418 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Adjusted TAFs based on low cloud trends.  Low clouds cleared out
of KCDS area but are still expected to come back with MVFR
conditions for part of this morning. Ceiling at KLBB and KPVW have
improved to above 2000 feet. There may be a few breaks in these
low clouds for the next few hours, but overall remaining overcast
until mid morning before clearing.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

Much cooler today with brisk northerly winds, especially this
morning.  Low clouds this morning will give way to sunny skies by
afternoon.  Winds will decrease somewhat in the afternoon and then
much lighter tonight as surface high pressure settles over the area.
Temperatures overnight will drop into the upper 30s or lower 40s
overnight with the coolest temperatures in the southwest panhandle
adn northwest south plains.  There will be some potential for
pockets of frost especially from Muleshoe up toward Dimmitt and
Friona, but do not expect a freeze at this point.  Overall, little
change from previous forecast and not straying far from guidance.

Weak ridging is expected to build into the area on Sunday ahead of
the next storm system which translates out of the Great Basin into
the Central Plains on Monday while under the influence of zonal
flow. By Thursday, the next system dives out of the Pacific
Northwest digging into the desert southwest. While the inter-model
synoptic scale features are a bit more coherent than yesterday,
the timing and influences on our sensible weather remain
uncertain. Therefore, will trend the forecast toward climatology
for late April until some degree of coherency indicates otherwise.

Southerly flow will return on Sunday with the dryline sloshing about
the region into Monday.  Breezy and dry westerlies look to be
increasingly likely on Monday leading to near critical to low end
critical fire weather concerns.  Solutions are now bringing a cold
front into the region on Tuesday (a change from last night`s data)
which would help shunt moisture to the southeast and keep precip
out of our area. MOS does suggest windy conditions may be
possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. From Wednesday onward,
solutions differ but offer some insight that suggest that the best
moisture should remain east of the area...thus also the bulk of
the precipitation into late next week. Despite the synoptic scale
differences during the latter extended, the model credibility is
also hampered by them suggesting precipitation in meteorologically
and climatologically unfavorable locations based on how things
normally evolve here in West Texas. Thus, generally breezy and dry
conditions are anticipated with the pattern and will trend the
forecast in that direction.




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