Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 250436
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK BUT MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE
RIDGE JUTTING OUT OF OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS FOUR CORNERS. SIGNALS FOR LOW CLOUDS REMAIN VERY
WEAK AND WE WILL RETAIN ONLY A SMALL MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY
FOR STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK. THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO HAVE ALMOST TOTALLY DISSIPATED WHILE MOVING
SOUTH. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

AVIATION...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING OUT OF OKLAHOMA INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT. STILL SEEING WEAK
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE STRATUS LAYER FORMING LATER TONIGHT...
SOLUTIONS NOT CONVINCING ENOUGH TO ALTER PREVIOUS SCATTERED LOW
DECK STARTING AROUND 12Z...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. ALSO EYEING THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
RATON MESA AREA...SOLUTIONS ALSO INCONCLUSIVE ON HOW THESE MAY
PLAY OUT. BUT GIVEN MAYBE 10-20 KNOTS NORTH-NORTHEAST STEERING
FLOW THESE SHOULD FAVOR REMAINING WEST OF TAF SITES SHOULD THEY
MAINTAIN THROUGH THE EVENING...SO NO MENTION WITHIN TAF. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND YESTERDAY/S COLD
FRONT. 1 PM TEMPS RANGED FROM 77 DEGREES AT DIMMITT TO 86 DEGREES AT
GUTHRIE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH
ON THE CAPROCK...BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHERE A VERY WEAK FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH. THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRETTY
FIRMLY CAPPED...BUT A SMALL BLOB OF ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. WE/VE ALSO
SEEN SOME ALTO-CUMULUS DEVELOP RECENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
DECAYING FRONTAL ZONES TO OUR SOUTH. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR A WEAK T-STORM OR TWO ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED.  TONIGHT...LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...FOCUSED
NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE CAPROCK ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THAT
WEAK FRONT. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT WE MAY SEE SOME LOW STRATUS
AND EVEN SOME FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE BUT OTHER MODELS ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. WE WILL HOLD OFF A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT DUE TO THE
RETURN MOISTURE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS....NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPS...AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS HELPING TO POOL MOISTURE NEAR THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. BUT ANY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY.

LONG TERM...
WE WARM BACK UP TOWARD SEASONALY NORMAL TEMPS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING QUIETLY TOWARD A WEAK
COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO THE EMBEDDED VORT MAX POSITIONED OVER THE FRONT RANGE LATE
THURSDAY MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID-MORNING FRIDAY. EXPECTING LIMITED SHOWER AND TSTORM COVERAGE
WITH THE FRONT...DUE PRIMARILY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...LOW TO MID
50S DEWPOINTS. WE WILL NOT SEE THE TYPE OF COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS
FRONT AS WE SAW OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND EITHER...IN FACT TEMPS ON
FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND RIGHT BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE SOME WAVE ENERGY
WELL TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ALONG THE
TEXAS/OLD MEXICO BORDER BUT ATTM GUIDANCE DOESNT ANTICIPATE THAT
SYSTEM TO BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BRING PRECIP UP TO OUR LATITUDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  62  90  64 /  20  10  10   0
TULIA         85  64  90  65 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     85  65  90  65 /  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     85  66  91  66 /  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       86  67  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   85  67  91  66 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    86  67  91  67 /  20  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     88  69  92  71 /  20  10  20  10
SPUR          88  69  92  70 /  20  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     90  71  95  71 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



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