Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 240929
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
429 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED OUR FORECAST AREA NESTED BETWEEN TWO
WEAK 500 MB HIGH CENTERS...ONE NEAR DFW AND ANOTHER OVER THE GRAND
CANYON. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL LOITER OVER THE
AREA TODAY BEFORE THE WESTERNMOST HIGH AMPLIFIES TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY ABSORBS THE LESSER OF THE TWO. UNTIL THEN...SPOTTY AND
WEAKLY- FORCED STORMS REMAIN IN THE CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. TOOK A STAB AT RESTRICTING MORNING POPS TO OUR NW
AND SE ZONES GIVEN DECENT HI-RES ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING IN THESE
AREAS...BUT SADLY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE LIFT
MECHANISMS OF INTEREST IN THE AREA SAVE FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
WHERE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING STEADILY SINCE 2 AM. ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT THERE SHOULD STEER N-E OF CHILDRESS COUNTY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NEGLIGIBLE CIN WITH PWATS
AOA 1 INCH. FOCI FOR LIFT HOWEVER WILL REMAIN VAGUE AND SUBTLE
WHICH LEND LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN ATTEMPTING TO FINE TUNE
AN OTHERWISE BROAD SMATTERING OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IN LIGHT OF
ATTAINABLE CCL HEIGHTS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WEAKNESS...DID GO
AHEAD AND CHANGE WX GRIDS TO ISOLATED STORMS BEFORE PULLING THIS
MENTION AFTER 00Z AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE TAKES GRASP WITH THE
EXPANDING RIDGE. NO CHANGES OF NOTE TO THE INHERITED HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM AS THE
RIDGE WILL BE AT IT/S STRONGEST AND EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA. BY
THURSDAY...HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME AS THE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS A BIT
SOUTH AND WEST AND THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME ENERGY FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WAVE WILL
ALSO DISLODGE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT SO THERE STILL ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD FOR FRIDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF CARRYING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO A LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. RIDGE WILL
RESTRENGTHEN A BIT AND PUSH BACK TO THE EAST FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHICH WILL DEFINITELY BUT THE KIBOSH ON ANY RAIN CHANCES.
ONE MINOR CHANGE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS
FOR TEMPERATURES TO COME IN 2-3 DEGREES WARMER FOR HIGHS EVERY
PERIOD. NOT QUITE SURE WHAT PROMPTED THE CHANGE FROM PAST RUNS BUT
THIS COULD PARTIALLY BE DUE TO THE RIDGE NOT BACKING OFF AS FAR
WEST AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. COULD NOT ARGUE WITH THE CHANGE SO
LEFT TEMPERATURES FROM SUPERBLEND IN PLACE.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  63  89  64 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         86  64  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     86  65  90  65 /  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     86  66  91  65 /  20   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       87  67  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   86  67  91  66 /  20   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    87  67  91  67 /  20   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     89  69  93  70 /  20  10  20  10
SPUR          89  69  92  69 /  20  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     91  71  96  71 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14


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