Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 171130
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
530 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR is expected through the TAF period. Westerly winds will become
breezy this afternoon at KLBB and KPVW in response to a deepening
surface low pressure system.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

SHORT TERM...
A mostly dry closed low was currently spinning over the area and
will continue to move to the northeast today. The only effect from
this low will be continued mid level cloudiness over the Rolling
Plains this morning. Despite the lower heights from this low,
thickness values will be on the increase today leading to warmer
temperatures. Warming will be boosted by westerly downsloping winds
as surface lee troughing continues for this afternoon. A surface low
will move over West Texas swinging winds around more to the west
this afternoon and evening. Strong atmospheric mixing will not do
much to increase winds since winds aloft will be fairly weak.
Surface wind speeds will be more dependent on the increased pressure
gradient than the mixing. The only other concern will be an increase
in low level moisture off the caprock tonight into early Saturday
morning. This may bring in some light fog off the caprock.

LONG TERM...
Two main weather-makers in the long term. The first involves a
slow moving upper trough from the west coast that will cause deep
southerly flow Saturday night and Sunday across the southern high
plains. Solutions continue to trend a bit more open and with less
defined lift across our area. Trends also toward somewhat less
precipitable water levels from near (or now less than) 0.50 inch
on the Caprock, to around 0.75 inch over the Rolling Plains. So,
moistening and backing low level flow still expected, but less
moisture than previously, and also less certain of the ability to
release pent-up convective potential energy. Still holding some
potential however that a release mechanism may develop, which
could be at least somewhat supportive of locally strong storms
over the Rolling Plains. We have backed off mostly to low chance
of thunder on the Caprock Sunday, and little better chance Rolling
Plains. Solutions also continue trending towards more pronounced
drying west to east late Sunday into Sunday night, especially high
plains area. This supports earlier downward trend of thunder
potential.

The other potentially significant event in the long term is a
deepening Pacific low clearing the Front Range into the central
high plains late Thursday. With this set of solutions at least,
this resembles the Southern Plains Wildfire Outbreak pattern and
suggests both strong downslope winds and fire weather threats. We
have trended winds higher - above our blended solutions - owing to
the resemblance to known past conditions. For now will include a
brief mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Otherwise, quiet and nice Saturday with an upper ridge. Low level
southeasterly flow expected to develop late Saturday. Monday
through Wednesday also remain fairly benign with mild and
breezy conditions developing by Wednesday with increasing
southwest flow aloft after a ridge passage early in the week.
RMcQueen

FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal averages
today leading to afternoon relative humidity values around 15
percent in the southwestern South Plains. Moderately breezy
southwest to westerly winds will develop across the southwestern
South Plains this afternoon in response to a surface lee trough.
Winds at the 20 foot level between 15 and 20 mph will likely keep
red flag conditions from being maintained for an extended period
of time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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