Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 191944
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
244 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Clear skies were in place across most of the region this afternoon,
indicative of the subsidence occurring underneath a 500 HPa ridge
that was centered over El Paso on the 12Z upper-air analysis.  A few
fair-weather cumulus were seen on visible satellite across portions
of the southern Rolling Plains/South Plains as a humid airmass is
still in place thanks to the recent rainfall, and these were the
only clouds that kept clear skies from all of our forecast area. The
ridge has slowly been shifting northeast with time and will continue
to do so through tomorrow.  Skies should be clear again tonight
after any clouds dissipate with the loss of daytime heating but
there continues to be a chance of spotty ground fog around sunrise
Tuesday thanks to the moist ground and light and variable wind
expected overnight.  Any low clouds/fog should quickly dissipate
after sunrise as a deepening lee surface trough helps wind speeds to
pick up from the south to southwest. The center of the ridge should
have shifted to over North Texas and Oklahoma by tomorrow afternoon
which will allow a plume of mid-level moisture being thrown off of
Hurricane Paine in the Pacific to push closer to the region.  This
could result in an increase in high cloud cover through the day that
will likely keep temperatures from warming too much across the
Caprock.  The Rolling Plains will see more sunshine and with the
proximity to the center of the ridge, subsidence and abundant
insolation could bump highs back into the mid to upper 90s.

Jordan

.LONG TERM...
Although slowly decaying, an otherwise stout dome of high pressure
will remain anchored nearby on Wednesday before exiting east of the
region thereafter ahead of progressively lower heights and a return
to unsettled SW flow. A taste of this pattern change could develop
as soon as Wednesday evening in our western zones as moisture from
the remnants of Hurricane Paine is carried northeast behind the
departing ridge. Overall model consensus is for this enhanced
moisture axis to be deflected to our west and north, so the dry
forecast remains intact until Fri evening when backing upper flow
and height falls ensue ahead of a longwave trough axis. Models have
trended more bullish with energy closing off and stalling to our
west in the base of this trough by Saturday spurring what should be
a multi-day wet pattern - potentially disrupted by an aggressive
cold front and subsequent drying by early next week if the ECMWF is
correct. PoPs have been raised to solid chance territory Saturday
through Monday to sync with this pattern, but were still kept below
the Superblend`s higher values to allow some room for uncertainty
being so many days out. Otherwise, max temps should easily remain
above climo through Friday before lower thicknesses camp out this
weekend and beyond.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

14/93



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