Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 071138
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BY 15Z AND INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING WHERE THEY WILL STAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DECREASING THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS A MID-LEVEL CLOUD TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL DELIVER
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR WEST TEXAS TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL
SHIFT INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER
AROUND TO THE NORTH WHILE THEY GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THE STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SO
EVEN WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SUSTAINED AOA 15 KNOTS MUCH OF
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL PEAK NEAR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THE WEAK WINDS COUPLED WITH CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A CHILLY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST ZONES WILL LIKELY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE
TEENS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

LONG TERM...
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AS A PACIFIC RIDGE AXIS PLODS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. WE WILL REMAIN DRY
THIS WEEK AS WPC SEVEN DAY QPF GUIDANCE HAS NO PRECIP SIGNAL
WITHIN 500 MILES OF WEST TEXAS. BIGGEST QUESTIONS APPEAR TO BE THE
CEILING OF THE WARMING TREND WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK AND TO WHAT
EXTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO SPREAD COOLER AIR ACROSS
OUR LATITUDE UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AS WINDS MAINTAIN THEIR
NORTHERN COMPONENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THE DAY BEFORE.
TUESDAY BEGINS THE WARM UP IN EARNEST AS MODERATE W-SW H85 FLOW
TAPS INTO WARMER AIR AND SURFACE WINDS BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES.
GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MIDWEEK ON PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND THEIR ABILITY TO WORK THIS FAR SOUTH AND
WEST AS THEY PASS TO OUR EAST. FOR THE MOST PART TWEAKED THE
SUPERBLEND OUTPUT TO BE A MIX OF THE TWO. OVERALL THOUGH WE WILL
SEE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WARM FROM THE MID 60S TO
70S BY MIDWEEK. FRIDAY THE WARMING IS STUNTED SOMEWHAT BY A WEAK
AND DRY BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS REMAINING PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE FOR ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHAT THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARD WEST TEXAS.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE RIDGE IS ABLE TO MODERATE AND
STEER THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OR IF A CLOSED LOW IS ABLE TO PINCH
OFF AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED TO OUR WEST.

FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND BECOME SUSTAINED
AT 15 TO 20 MPH FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY WINDS
COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES DIPPING
DOWN TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
WEAKEN...TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AND HUMIDITIES IMPROVE.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/55/23


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