Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 161733
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1233 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR expected outside of convective activity. There is a risk of
thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening toward
KLBB/KPVW.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Diffluent upper flow precedes the next dynamically driven and
upper speed-max enhanced impulse, just to our southwest before
daybreak. This wave looks on-track to cross late morning to early
afternoon, similar to yesterday timing-wise anyway. Majority of
high-resolution solutions spread activity northeast bisecting our
area, unclear again if we will be missed most to the left or to
the right. Anyway, we have slightly boosted into solid chance of
thunderstorms for the majority of our area for today. Assuming
this wave clears during the afternoon, we may see another late day
boost in temperatures like occurred Friday. But tricky on max
temperatures again; guidance has reduced some of it`s wide
uncertainty and favors generally warm conditions. Convective
energy potential is a bit more today with slightly elevated
dewpoint temperatures, and points again to gusty outflow potential
to around 50 mph; locally higher certainly not unexpected. But
also perhaps a little more efficient showers today as well.
Morning activity likely is less conducive to stronger outflows
given weaker low level lapse rates compared to afternoon.

Sunday will remain in southwest flow aloft as well, and subject
once more to subtle, perhaps still invisible, impulses. A
possible wrench is a cold front shove southward from the
impressive cold low rotating into south-central Canada. At this
point, we discount the most recent 06Z WRF-NAM depiction as too
strong/too far south - but we cannot eliminate the chance of at
least a brief push into the southern Panhandle that may lead to
precipitation enhancement and a little cooling. We have retained
rain chances favoring our western and northern zones.

Most solutions veer mid and upper flow Monday which seems to
suggest gradual drying. We have continued earlier trend to
diminish precipitation chances through mid-week, as flow remains
veered. Whatever moisture and energy emerges from eastern Pacific
Hurricane Norma currently appears targeted to our south. We have
held on to slight chances in our southeast mid-week. Temperatures
also should remain fairly warm during this period. And winds
probably a bit breezy. Perhaps will need to consider fire weather
concerns a bit more mainly northern zones where surface pressure
gradients appear tightest if this pattern holds.

Deep troughing over the Pacific Northwest will gradually work into
the intermountain west by late next week leading to backing flow
our area that appears capable of returning moisture and a dryline.
Solution spread, however, is greatest over the southwest so still
fairly high uncertainty with details in our area. Chance of
thunder remains valid for now. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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