Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 130447
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1047 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.AVIATION...
Stratus deck will continue for at least the next 12 hours at all
sites. LIFR is expected through at least 18z then IFR conditions
are expected through the early morning hours of Monday. Models
continue to disagree on timing of improved conditions. Thus, less
confidence as to timing of improved conditions and ceilings Monday
afternoon/evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Low stratus will be more or less a permanent feature across the area
through at least Tuesday morning. Stratus has been very slow to
clear from the west this afternoon as expected which has turned into
a cool day for the region. Any remaining clearing that will take
place late this afternoon into early evening will be replaced by low
stratus again tonight with good low level moisture transport.
Shallow isentropic lift around 290-295K will form this evening
lasting through Monday morning. This isentropic lift will be fairly
weak and favor the Rolling Plains. Any precipitation is expected to
fall as drizzle. The length of time expected for drizzle may be able
to squeeze out a few hundredths of measurable precipitation before
it ends late Monday morning. Surface lee troughing on Monday will
attempt to erode the stratus layer. Quicker clearing of skies will
likely occur on Monday compared to today because of this. However,
we fully expect the Rolling Plains to remain under overcast skies
throughout the day. It it somewhat unclear on how far the low
stratus layer will erode creating a day with a strong contrast in
temperatures from west to east. Stronger lee troughing/surface
cyclogenesis will occur on Tuesday clearing out low stratus but may
still linger in the Rolling Plains for a good portion of the day.

A more West Texas fall like pattern will emerge by mid week with
warmer temperatures, stronger winds, and a drier atmosphere. A cold
front will move through on Wednesday morning which may end up
bringing some more low stratus but only briefly. At this time,
Friday is looking like possible elevated fire weather conditions. A
short wave will emerge out of the Rockies onto the Central Plains
bringing stronger winds to West Texas. Typically following fire
weather days, we see a cold front and this day would be no exception
with a front forecast to move through late Friday into early
Saturday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/28



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