Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 131732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Flight categories should largely remain VFR though some risk of
MVFR will exist through 21Z at KPVW and KCDS. A complex of
thunderstorms is expected to move out of the Texas Panhandle this
evening. Confidence is about 50% that KCDS and KPVW will be
affected by these storms. KLBB is less certain though certainly
possible late this evening. Some scattered TSTMs may fire this
evening though exactly where remains nebulous. Low level wind
shear then becomes a concern overnight. Depending on how
convection evolves, low stratus may also become a factor.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

A weak impulse was passing southeast over the Texas Panhandle
early this morning, and may lead to a few thunderstorms across
mainly the east or northeast part of our area this morning. The
low level airmass remained quite damp this morning with southeast
low level flow, very low clouds, and nearly saturated conditions
with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Retained mention of patchy early
morning fog as well. This impulse will steer past leaving little
upper level forcing until leading edge of the next wave approaches
from northeast New Mexico later today. Better heating this
afternoon should boost convective energy levels, especially near
the New Mexico line.

The next impulse is expected to enhance convection off the
Sangre De Cristo and Raton Mesa areas, with bulk of activity
appearing headed into the northeast two-thirds of our area
tonight. With a more unstable airmass in place, along with
stronger steering flow, there is expectation of persistent and
perhaps at times fairly vigorous storms. By the time activity
moves into our area, the main threat is likely to be severe wind
gusts, but probably won`t be able to rule out large hail. We have
trended rain chances highest across our north and northeast areas
for tonight.

Following this wave, upper flow will very quickly transition on
Monday to southwesterly and appears capable of ejecting a
convectively enhanced region crossing northern Sonora and
Chihuahua through southwest Texas late Monday and into the
southern South Plains and then the Rolling Plains Monday night.
So, lifted precipitation chances solidly into the chance category
for especially these areas.

Another wave will eject from the intermountain west, mainly to our
north Tuesday night and early Wednesday and is worthy of low
chance mention favoring eastern areas; we expect enough veered
deep layer flow for modest drying western areas.

Modest (for mid August) southwest flow aloft will continue later
in the week perhaps with a weak wave or two steering nearby, but
upper heights should be rebuilding and the mid and upper drying
should be more established especially across our west and to the
west. Warming aloft will add more difficulty for convective
development and survival in this drier airmass, and will be worthy
of only minimal precipitation chances. Temperatures will gradually
warm in this regime. The next weekend remains in question over
how high upper heights will remain, and if monsoonal moisture flow
can become re-established. Development of an upper level low
pressure system over the eastern Pacific just north of Oregon and
Washington prior to the eclipse could entice a flow of deeper
moisture back into our area early the following week, but beyond
the scope of our forecast. RMcQueen




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