Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 040442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HANG ON FROM NORTH OF
DIMMITT TO NEAR TULIA AS OF 435Z. OVERALL THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD...THOUGH IT MAY TRY AND MAKE IT TO
KPVW BEFORE GIVING UP THE GHOST. STILL...THINK THE SHOT OF THUNDER
AT KPVW IS NOT A GREAT BET AND HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY VCTS THERE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION AT
KCDS AND KLBB IS EVEN LOWER AND NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM INFLUENCES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VFR WILL PREVAIL. THE FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND MINIMAL STORM CHANCES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE AMARILLO AREA. HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE
LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND WEAKENING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE EXTENT OF ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS IS
UNCERTAIN. STILL...WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS AND QPF
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AS THE LINE WEAKENS HOWEVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS
ARE LIKELY FROM PARMER THROUGH BRISCOE COUNTIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARY. THIS
ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ML CAPES
GENERALLY 1-2 KJ/KG. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH THIS
EVENING. SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCT SHRA/TSRA ORIGINATING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND ERN NM LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING SOUTH AND LIKELY WEAKENING
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER IN THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. ON
SATURDAY...STILL COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY MAINLY
EAST...BUT TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. TEMPS NEAR
PERSISTENCE AND SEASONAL AVERAGES. JAMES

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE RIDGE EXTEND OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT
BIT. FRONTAL TIMING IN THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS AND INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS PULLED OVER THE
REGION AS WELL SO THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW LONG PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT STARTS TO MIX OUT AND MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATE TUESDAY AND THE GFS WITH ECMWF TO SOME EXTENT SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORTWAVE SWINGING OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY THANKS TO THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES.

SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. ONE MAJOR
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT EXPANDING THE RIDGE AS
STRONGLY AS THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS RUNS. INSTEAD...A SYSTEM OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW AND NUDGES THE RIDGE
SOUTH A BIT AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO BEND MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE FIRST SIGN OF THIS
POSSIBILITY SO LEFT THE EXTENDED FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  88  65  91 /  60  10  10  10
TULIA         66  89  67  91 /  50  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  88  67  90 /  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  89  67  92 /  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  90  68  92 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  89  66  92 /  20  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  90  68  92 /  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  94  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
SPUR          69  91  70  92 /  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23



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