Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 011620 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE OVERALL
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS WANING. WE DO EXPECT THIS WEAKENING
TREND TO ENDURE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER...STRONGER HEATING AND A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY RESIDE
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS WANING COMPLEX A NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY /IN THE FORM OF RATHER SKINNY CAPE/ TO WORK WITH
THOUGH RATHER ANEMIC WIND FIELDS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
SLOW-MOVING PULSE-TYPE STORMS THAT COULD DROP LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAD
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION...THOUGH WE HAVE TRIMMED
POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES AND BOOSTED THEM SLIGHTLY
FURTHER TO THE WEST AFTER 18Z. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE DROPPED
FORECAST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND EARLY DAY RAINFALL WILL TEND TO TEMPER
WARMING. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS OF SIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST ATTM AND THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AVIATION...
BROKEN COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH KCDS AND KPVW LIKELY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLY EVEN TSRA THIS MORNING. BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR KCDS WILL
WARRANT TEMPO THUNDER MENTION THERE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT KPVW
AND JUST MAINTAIN PREVAILING SHRA GIVEN WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE.
KLBB LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BRUNT OF THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY...BUT ALL TERMINALS MAY ONCE AGAIN SEE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING AND COVERAGE TOO
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS STAGE TO INSERT MENTION ON THIS NEXT ROUND OF
DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS INTACT AFTER THIS
MORNING. ANY DEGRADATION TO VFR CRITERIA WILL BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
DEPENDENT ON HEAVIER RAINFALL...SO WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING
FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DECAYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMING
CLOUD TOPS WHILE RIDING A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT...WELL-
DEFINED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN. CONTINUING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED BANDS OF
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM NORTHEASTERN CASTRO INTO CENTRAL
SWISHER COUNTIES...BUT PROGRESSIVE AND LOCALIZED NATURE SHOULD KEEP
THE FLOOD THREAT RELATIVELY LOW AS LOCAL WEST TEXAS MESONET
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES REMAINING AT OR BELOW
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING AS THE BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY IMPRESSIVE PWATS APPROACHING THE 2 INCH
MARK...ADVECTS SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT NOW LYING IN
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND THIS
SOUTHWESTWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOCALES IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD SEE BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY COMPARED TO THAT AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER HEATING AWAY FROM THE MORE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. WEAK SHEAR AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL MAINTAIN PULSE/LOW-TOPPED STORM
STRUCTURES...BUT RICH STORM SCALE MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRIER
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR WILL MAKE ISOLATED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS A
POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
IN PLACE NEAR A THETA-E MAXIMUM AS A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TAKES
FORM.

LONG TERM...
RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED FORECAST MINUS SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO MID WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD STAY TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT
THE REGION UNDER MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH USUALLY HELPS
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THE CASE NORMALLY
IS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS TUES/WED AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND THE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO WEST TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN SOME
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TUES INTO WED MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SEEM TO HAVE SOME AGREEMENT ON THIS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE
ECMWF BEING LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE FRONT BY KEEPING IT HELD UP
IN THE OK PANHANDLE AND NOT LETTING IT PUSH FURTHER SOUTH. BY LATE
NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER WEST
TEXAS HELPING KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY. THIS WILL HELP
TO GRADUALLY WARM TEMPS BACK TO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK
WHILE REACHING NEAR AND OVER THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  65  91  66 /  50  30  20  20
TULIA         81  66  91  67 /  60  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     84  68  91  69 /  50  30  20  30
LEVELLAND     89  68  93  69 /  50  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       87  70  93  71 /  50  30  20  30
DENVER CITY   93  67  94  69 /  30  30  20  30
BROWNFIELD    93  68  95  70 /  50  30  20  30
CHILDRESS     86  71  95  73 /  90  40  30  30
SPUR          88  69  95  72 /  50  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     92  72  97  74 /  60  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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