Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 232029
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
329 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...
At 2:30 pm, convection was firing along an axis running from
southeast New Mexico northward to the srn TX Panhandle, pretty
similar to the expected pattern. With MLCAPEs running about 1000
west to 2500 J/kg east and modest deep-layer shear we are expecting
some strong storms, and perhaps a couple of severe wind gusts or
isolated large hail reports from pulsing cells that bring a brief
severe threat. A bigger threat may be localized heavy rain and
flooding. PWAT values are running 1 to 2 inches and there is some
indication of training cells with good moisture transport running
parallel with storm motion from southwest to northeast. However,
short-range guidance suggests that the activity will gradually shift
eastward with time keeping the flood threat limited.

After perhaps a brief lull in the action this evening, guidance
indicates that another round of t-storms will develop across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas tonight, likely tied to the
strengthening low-level jet and approaching shortwave. However,
guidance is less certain whether or not the bulk of the activity
will remain across the western South Plains or expand eastward.
Also, guidance is not as bullish on the low stratus and fog
potential early Wednesday morning, possibly due to the ongoing
shower activity and mostly cloudy skies that are expected area-wide
overnight.

The slow-moving upper trough will edge closer to northwest Texas on
Wednesday. it appears that lift from the system combined with the
still moist airmass will bring a solid chance of afternoon storms.
However, the degree of diurnal destabilization will highly depend on
whether or not we see continuing activity and cloud cover through
the morning. So we will keep PoPs mainly in the chance range for now
due to this uncertainty. This will also make for a tricky high
temperature forecast, highs could struggle to make it much north of
80 across the west if shower activity lingers. We expect more sun
off the Caprock and temps to warm into the low 90s across the
Rolling Plains.

.LONG TERM...
Theme in the extended remains that of an unsettled variety thanks
to the South Plains residing under a weakness between two rather
prominent subtropical highs. Some troughs within this weakness
will be more amplified than others - most notably late Wed night
into early Thursday at which point a decaying cold front appears
likely to stall somewhere in the southern TX Panhandle. This
coupling of deeper ascent with the front and upper trough should
encourage the next solid bout of PoPs beginning Wed night mostly
in our N-NW zones, before a wedge of mid-level drying lowers PWATs
through the weekend. Despite drying of the column, forecast
soundings every afternoon still indicate at least meager instability
and subsequent potential for spotty storms just about anywhere. No
changes of significance were needed to the otherwise seasonable
temps through the period.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

33/93



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