Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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238
FXUS64 KLUB 162234
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
434 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.AVIATION...
Light north/northwest winds through Tuesday morning. VFR
conditions are expected, although will have to monitor the
potential for some fog development late tonight given those light
winds and moist ground. Will follow dew point trends closely
through the evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Adjusted todays highs up slightly given current surface trends
across our CWA. Shortwave ridging aloft will continue through
tonight and first half of tomorrow out ahead of a broad and
deepening trough over the Baja of California, that is poised to
close and lift north in to New Mexico by tomorrow evening. As the
system draws in moisture from two separate sources, Pacific and
Gulf, a weak warm front will slowly lift north through the day
tomorrow arriving across the southern half of our CWA by early
afternoon and spreading over our entire area by tomorrow evening.
Best surface moisture convergence though, will be south and east
of us. Inserted some isolated thunderstorms in slight chance and
chance POPS, with any precip being light. Isolated convection
would be elevated due to steepening lapse rates above the boundary
layer. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the mid 20s to low
30s across the region under mostly clear skies overnight.

LONG TERM...
Any lingering light precip Tuesday night will taper off by early
Wednesday morning resulting in mild overnight lows and maybe some
patchy morning fog, especially areas that received some rain. The
upper level lows progress slows somewhat Wednesday as it stretches
across West Texas and drier westerly surface flow spreads across
West Texas from New Mexico. Strong surface westerlies are further
enhanced as potent short wave troughing first exits to the
northeast on Thursday followed by a stronger iteration out ahead
of the next developing Pacific system quickly ejects out of the
southern Rockies early Friday. Scaled winds down somewhat given
its late this week, but if guidance remains persistent we will
likely see wind advisory conditions, especially near the Texas/New
Mexico border on Friday and Saturday as energy rotates around the
base of the first shortwave trough and then the much broader and
stronger trough arriving for the second half of the weekend.
Models are in good agreement overall with the synoptic pattern,
though precip progged by blends for Saturday seems dubious as
strong surface westerlies quickly dry out the surface boundary
layer.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07



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