Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 270428
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEST SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WITH 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED PLAINVIEW TO 40
MILES NORTH OF KCDS...BUT SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH
TONIGHT TO AVOID A WIND SHEAR REMARK. GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH AND
THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS KCDS AROUND 00Z AND APPROACH KLBB NEAR 06Z TUESDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF KCDS LATE MONDAY
BUT CHANCES TOO SMALL FOR TAF AT THIS TIME. TAF CHANGE GROUPS
MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTY WIND PERIODS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

AVIATION...
DOMINANT VFR WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALTHOUGH A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR BOTH TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WILL
REASSESS IF A WIND SHEAR REMARK WILL BE NEEDED AND/OR ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KCDS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY
AND KLBB BY 06Z TUESDAY...JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF ANOTHER WARM LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH 19Z
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S...ASIDE FROM A FEW UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. WE STILL COULD SEE RECORD
HIGHS THREATENED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CURRENT RECORDS FOR LUBBOCK
AND CHILDRESS ARE 88 DEGREES /1979/ AND 93 DEGREES
/1950/...RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE ADDITION TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
IS AN INCREASE IN WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH/ FOR THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THESE
BREEZY WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS DEEPER THERMALLY-DRIVEN
MIXING ENDS...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-40 KNOT LLJ AND THE
MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS ELEVATED
IN COMPARISON TO RECENT NIGHTS. THE MECHANICAL MIXING ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ARGUE FOR A MILDER OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE 60S MIX IN ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST.

MONDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY FOR
MANY SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK. THE MINOR COOLING WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD
UA TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TRANSLATES STEADILY EASTWARD.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY
WELL TO THE NORTH...LOWER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND AN INCREASED TAP
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE /AND THUS CLOUD COVER/ WILL
PROVIDE THE COOLING. HOWEVER...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GREET THE
CWA TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF A LATE DAY COLD FRONT...AND THESE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LARGELY OFFSET THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THEY WILL THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE
MARK ONE MORE DAY. IN FACT THE RECORD HIGH OF 90 DEGREES /1975/ AT
CHILDRESS COULD BE THREATENED. A COLD FRONT MAY EDGE INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING AND THUS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AFTERNOON HIGHS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...A RATHER
DRY AND DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER ALONG WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP
THE SOUTH PLAINS DRY.

LONG TERM...
PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TODAY AS FAIRLY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE
UPPER PATTERN WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTAINED IN THE JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA...
FINALLY REPLACING THE VERY WARM AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN SEEMINGLY
LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY WITH AN
AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS. A MODEST SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR BEFORE THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS LATTER
FEATURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH ATTM THE RIDGE IS
LOOKING WEAKER THAN THE ONE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION SO A
RETURN TO RECORD WARMTH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK SMALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS EXPECTED MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH
ANY QPF WITH EITHER FRONTAL PASSAGE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  77  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         56  80  39  66  38 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  80  42  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  81  43  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       57  83  45  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  82  45  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  84  46  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  90  47  71  42 /   0  10  10   0   0
SPUR          58  87  48  69  41 /   0   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  90  51  71  42 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





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