Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 011727
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1227 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN MOVE INTO TEXAS AFTER 00Z
AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /SQUALL LINE/. AS SUCH...BOTH
KPVW AND KLBB APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE TSTMS THOUGH
IMPACTS TO KCDS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE MOST LIKELY
WINDOW FOR STORM IMPACTS TO AREA TERMINALS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 03Z
AND 07Z TUESDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

AVIATION...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM WEST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY MOVE INTO KPVW AND KLBB LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF
THIS GO AROUND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EAST TODAY BUT WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN IN THE PROCESS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM
AGAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH/LOW LEVEL
THETA-E AXIS. THIS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
MODELS GENERALLY HANDING THE SITUATION WELL. WEAK WIND FLOW AND
TENUOUS INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SEVERE CHANCES LOW. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A 30-
35KT LOW LEVEL JET SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION IN THE
PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET BE WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MORE
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. PACIFIC WAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FURTHER FLATTEN THE RIDGE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT OR ELIMINATE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL POP BACK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING NORTHERN
ROCKIES ENERGY AND AS NEXT ROUND OF PACIFIC STORMINESS BEGINS
STEERING SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STILL SEEING AT LEAST
MINOR INDICATIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EASTERN ZONES.

SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND DEEPER AND CUTOFF WITH THIS NEXT LOW
PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA LATER IN THE WEEK WITH MORE AMPLITUDE TO
DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS. THIS FURTHER WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES
WHILE SETTING UP AN EXTENDED WARM AND DRY PERIOD AT LEAST INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND
MAY ALLOW A BIT OF RETROGRADE TO OCCUR WITH RIDGE AXIS POSSIBLY
SHIFTING BACK TO OUR WEST. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THEN PERHAPS COULD
SEE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTER THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK LEADING TO NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH SOLUTIONS DO NOT OFFER MUCH CONSISTENCY OR
AGREEMENT. MAINLY DAYS 7 AND BEYOND ANYWAY...SO WILL KEEP
FORECAST LOW KEY AS WELL.

BIGGEST ISSUE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE HOW MUCH WARMING WILL
OCCUR. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS THOUGH
SUSPECT THEY MAY OVER RELY ON SEASONALLY EXPECTED SURFACE MOISTURE
AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RATHER THAN THE CURRENT EXTREMELY WET AND
GREEN CONDITIONS. SO WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS SLIGHTLY COOLER
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME THOUGH STILL CONVINCED THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM WEATHER THIS YEAR. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        87  58  89  56 /  20  30  20  10
TULIA         85  59  88  59 /  10  30  10  10
PLAINVIEW     85  60  87  59 /  10  30  10  10
LEVELLAND     88  61  89  59 /  20  30  10  10
LUBBOCK       87  61  88  60 /  10  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   88  60  91  59 /  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    88  61  91  60 /  10  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     86  64  90  63 /  10  20  10  10
SPUR          87  63  89  61 /  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     88  65  89  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26


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