Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 252036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
336 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Satellite shows a fairly vigorous shortwave advancing across
northcentral New Mexico this afternoon. Total lightning network
indicates some isolated convective cells within the associated cold
pool from Colorado Springs to north of Gallup. Initial mountain-
induced cloud band continues to push east into the Rolling Plains
with additional mountain-wave activity in its wake across the
eastern plains of New Mexico associated with 50+ kt 500 mb jet.
Stronger jet energy across the Great Basin will help the system
deepen overnight and dig further south than previously progged.
Other feature of interest is the over zealous cold front which is
now well into the south central Panhandle about 5 hrs ahead of
schedule. Expect scattered convection across central New Mexico to
spread east this evening primarily across the southern Texas
Panhandle with additional forcing associated with frontal boundary
slipping south with time.

Have bumped pops into moderate chance category overnight with
continued mention of isolated thunder as some elevated instability
lingers. Precipitation should push south into the central South
Plains and Rolling Plains through the morning as shortwave digs into
the southeast Panhandle. Gusty winds will continue this evening in
advance of the front and pick up again overnight post-frontal as
cold air advection occurs. A strong isallobaric gradient will
keep winds up through much of the morning Wednesday as a surface
wave deepens across north Texas. Large scale lift and precip should
begin to exit the area by noon with a cool afternoon in store and
highs only in the 60s.

Prevailing theme in the extended forecast is that of cyclonic
flow over the middle of the Nation, puncuated by troughs of
varying vigor. Following Wednesday`s sharp open trough and
associated cold front and precip, height fields will recover ahead
of an even deeper trough and eventual closed low by Saturday.
Enhanced westerly flow on Thursday tied to a branch of the Polar
jet directly atop the CWA should easily breed dry and windy
conditions, before winds subside on Friday as a dry cold front
stalls over the region in a NW-SE fashion.

Cyclonic SW upper flow preceding Saturday`s closed low looks
quite effective in steering the initial return of modified Gulf
moisture well to our east Thursday, and perhaps once again on
Friday provided the stalling front doesn`t make any further
headway west. This Gulf moisture may be of little consequence to
precip chances late Friday thru Sat night as decent height falls
and mid-level Pacific moisture arrive with the approaching
cyclone. 12Z models are clustered nicely with the track of this
upper low moving along or just north of I-40 from NM through
western OK late Sat into Sun. However, this path does not inspire
confidence in multiple rounds of precip in our area as dry slotting
south of the low invariably shuts precip down faster than models
suggest. For now, we are retaining a broader mention of PoPs
beginning late Fri (onset of height falls) and lasting through
Sat night (departing low and trailing deformation zone) as further
changes to the low`s track and precip distribution remain
plausible. The biggest change was to scale high temps much lower
on Sat as another dome of modified Cp air spills south during the
morning. Thereafter, cyclonic NW upper flow should relax on
Sunday allowing thicknesses to recover nicely into the first day
of May.


Afternoon RH values in the 10 to 15 percent range combined with 20
ft winds around 20 mph will maintain elevated fire weather
conditions into mid evening Tuesday. The dry lightning potential
will also be non-zero as elevated convection develops and moves out
of eastern New Mexico into a low RH environment. Overall wildfire
threat is minimized by below average ERC values with seasonal green-
up well underway.


Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ033-034-039-040.



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