Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 200339 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1039 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IN EASTERN NM EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE TX/NM LINE...BUT IT HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT HAS DONE SO. GIVEN THAT THIS ACTIVITY
IS TENDING TO GUST OUT AND WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING INHIBITION...WE EXPECT THIS GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE.
THAT SAID...SOME LINGERING CONVECTION COULD PERSIST FOR SOME TIME
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE MODEST AND MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHEAST NM AND
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE CAN COMPLETE THEIR SOUTHEAST JOURNEY
INTO THE CWA...THOUGH ODDS OF THIS ARE PRETTY LOW. GIVEN THIS WE
HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

UPDATE...
THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE...ASIDE FROM A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND...DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. CONVECTION THAT
ORIGINATED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM THIS AFTERNOON HAS MADE
DECENT PROGRESS EASTWARD...THOUGH IT HAS ALSO SHOWN A RECENT
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED MORE RECENTLY IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN
NM...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOTED FROM NORTHEAST
NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE
GENERAL STEERING FLOW IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...THOUGH AT A
FAIRLY SLOW PACE AS IS EVIDENT BY THE MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE ROOSEVELT AND LEA COUNTY ACTIVITY. STILL...WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE MODESTLY FROM 20 KNOTS
NOW TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY 06Z THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE
SOME OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES COULD EXPERIENCE A
STORM LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN
CONGEAL AND DEVELOP A DECENT COLD POOL. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TWO POSSIBILITIES...FIRST A SMALL CLUSTER MOVING
OUT OF EASTERN NM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A SECOND
CLUSTER POTENTIALLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THE DETAILS OF HOW THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PLAY
OUT...BUT THE CURRENT EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE SOLID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THUS...NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ATTM. THE FAIRLY ROBUST
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM
THROUGH LATE EVENING WHILE THE RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND
HIGH PWATS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

AVIATION...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME TSRA ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE INCLUDED THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE KLBB TAF BUT KEPT IT OUT OF KCDS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE
THREAT OF LOW STRATUS APPEARS MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LOWERED CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTER 12 UTC OR SO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR GENERALLY
WEST OF I-27. WE EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING AIDED
BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED TOWARD
THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM
ROUGHLY PLAINS TO LUBBOCK TO MEMPHIS. FAVORED TIME FRAME WILL BE
FROM 03-09Z. LOWS TONIGHT RATHER MILD FROM 65-71.

DOESN`T APPEAR THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO EXERT MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ABOVE NORMAL...FROM 93 IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
STILL SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BUT LOWER POPS
AREAWIDE. JAMES

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR WEST WILL THEN
MOVE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE US IN A
FAIRLY BENIGN AND HOT PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL COME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT PUSH SOUTHWARD. THE GFS GETS THE FRONT
AS FAR AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE DISSIPATING WHAT IS LEFT OF IT.
THIS WOULD GIVE THE PANHANDLE...AND POSSIBLY OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...A CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHICH SLOWLY
PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE /MILDER/ SIDE AS SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW WOULD HELP BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR. THIS PROJECTION
WOULD ALSO GIVE US A CHANCE AT RAIN AREA WIDE OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS. DUE TO MODEL SPREAD AND BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BEING CONSISTENT I
HAVE CONTINUED OUR TREND OF RIDING THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. I HAVE
KEPT MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AM
STARTING TO SLOWLY LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS WHO HAS CHANGED THE PROJECTION OF THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY WITH EACH RUN.

BY THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BE DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT AS A
LOW SKIRTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CA/TX LINE PUTTING US IN VERY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD PUTTING US IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTHWARD BY LATE MONDAY AND BOTH BRING THE FRONT INTO AT
LEAST OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS THE FRONT ALL
THE WAY THROUGH. THIS WOULD AGAIN GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  94  70  95  70 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         66  94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  93  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  96  72  97  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  96  73  97  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  95  72  97  73 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  96  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  97  75 100  76 /  10  10   0  10  10
SPUR          68  97  75  99  76 /  10  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     71 100  75 100  77 /   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23





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