Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 060534 AAB
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1134 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.AVIATION...
Cold front is on a bit faster pace and observations behind the
front are showing stronger wind speeds out of the north. Have sped
up the frontal timing a bit and also increased speeds as a result.
Wind speeds will decrease through the day as the wind direction
changes to more of an easterly direction.  VFR conditions are
expected through the next 18 hours with a slim possiblity of MVFR
conditions after sunset Tuesday. Confidence is not high enough to
include at this time.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 526 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions in place through the next 24 hours. A cold front
will move through the terminals after midnight local time
resulting in a gusty north wind. Wind direction will gradually
become easterly through the day Tuesday and wind speeds will also
decrease with time through Tuesday.

Jordan

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
The upper level low that brought rain to the area to start the
weekend is on the move this afternoon, crossing the Rio Grande
around Del Rio/Eagle Pass and will track toward East Texas this
evening. In addition, an upper low will dig southeastward over the
Dakotas. The combination of these two features will send the initial
wave of cold air through the forecast area during the overnight
hours. Cold advection Tuesday in combination with a fair amount of
high cloud will hold temperatures down with highs in the 40s,
favoring a couple of degrees below MOS. Chances for any light rain
or sprinkles is looking less and less likely as models are just not
showing any mid level moisture across the area.

LONG TERM...
A strong cold front is still slated to push through the region
Wednesday. While the timing of the front is still in question, the
NAM is the fastest with the front by having it south of the FA by
21Z. Given how these fronts usually push through faster than what
guidance shows the forecast will reflect a quicker fropa. The timing
of the front will determine the high temp for Wednesday. It is
possible that the temperature observed in the late morning could
very well be the high for the day. Lows Thursday morning will be the
coldest so far this winter with current lows forecasted to range
from 8-24 degrees with the coldest temps occurring across our
northwestern zones. Wind chill will also be a factor overnight
Wednesday into the early morning hours Thursday as post frontal
winds will be 20-25 mph.

Models have trended highs warmer Thursday which seems to be on the
right path compared to what models were forecasting the past several
days. While near freezing temps will be possible for highs, solar
insolation as a result from clear skies should help keep daytime
temps from dropping below freezing. Winds should turn back to the
south/southwest by Friday allowing a gradual warmup with highs
reaching back into the low 60s by the weekend. Another cold front is
progged for late Sunday but will only cool temps slightly as mostly
zonal flow will be dominate aloft which will not allow another dump
of arctic air.

Aldrich

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

14/01/14



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