Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 161955

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
255 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

The weak cold front that has been moving south across the Caprock
today was a little faster than previous model runs indicated. The
front is essentially stalled along the escarpment between the
South and Rolling Plains which is also serving as the instability
axis for today and tonight. Deeper boundary level moisture
eastward through the Rolling Plains into Central Texas and surface
based CAPE between 2k/3k j/kg with 0-6km bulk shear increasing
from 20 to 30 kts this afternoon to around 30 to 40kts through the
evening hours along and east of the surface front. Despite the
increasing instability, as of 3 pm there is only a hint of a CU
field in the southern Rolling Plains on the tail end of the upper
level trough lifting into the Central Plains. Short term guidance
indicates only a thin line of scattered, mostly elevated
convection later this afternoon into the evening hours that
quickly dissipates or moves east by later tonight. The ECMWF
handled the timing and location of the surface front this morning
better than the other operational guidance but has been over doing
coverage of POPS and appears to be doing the same for the rest of
today and tonight.

Didn`t make many changes to the blended guidance for tomorrow,
the weekend or the beginning of next week. The position of the
ridge of high pressure to our east that will begin to shift
westward will be the primary driver in our precipitation chances
over the next 7 days. The ECMWF keeps the center farther east
which would allow for more monsoon moisture to advect north into
West Texas while the GFS would push the ridge farther west cutting
off much of the monsoon moisture for us by the weekend, leaving
it over the mountains of New Mexico. Both ECMWF and GFS hint
toward a return of climatologically normal chances continuing for
nocturnal storm activity moving off the higher terrain to the
west and north of our area by the middle of next week.
Temperatures will continue to remain normal to slightly below
normal values mostly due to the continued deep surface moisture
remaining in place through the forecast period.




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