Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 252233
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
-RA FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT COULD
SEE MVFR DECKS /AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES/ DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
THERE AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE...WILL
NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR VFR FOG AT KCDS AS HINTED AT BY A
FEW COMPUTER MODELS. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP AT KLBB AND KPVW GIVEN A WEST/DRY WIND COMPONENT. DECKS
AT KCDS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING WITH SFC WINDS VEERING
FURTHER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RAINFALL FROM TODAYS MCS ALL BUT GONE AS OF 325 PM WITH FOCUS NOW
SHIFTING TO A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
4-CORNERS REGION. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE SRN
END OF THE PRECIPTIATION POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NRN ROW OF
THIS FCST AREA...CERTAINLY ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INTO TONIGHTS FCST.

FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE TUESDAY AS MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN
LOW TO MID LEVELS DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SHOVE THE FOCUS FOR ANY AFTN CONVECTION JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA FROM SWRN OKLA INTO NW TEXAS. INCREASED
INSOLATION AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WARMER
THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL RUN WITH MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS WHICH
WILL BE A TOUCH BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY EVOLVES INTO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY REMAINING DRY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WEAKLY FORCED DRYLINE CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
TO OUR WEST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WIND
FIELDS BACKING IN RESPONSE. THE EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION EARLY
THURSDAY WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE
POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BY LATE
THURSDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION IS DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TYPE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY AND PUSHING EAST SLOWLY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A BROADER
TROUGH AND DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER THE GUADALUPE PASS WHICH HINTS
MORE TOWARD CONTINUAL THUNDERSTORM ENTRAINMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...IF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS LIMITED WED INTO THUR AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ALLOWED TO RECOVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL CAPPING BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR BUT
NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT THIS POINT.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE EXITING TROUGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCATING OVER AREAS THAT WILL HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER NOT ONLY THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS...BUT PAST WEEK...AND PAST
MONTH. DESPITE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OUT AN
ADVERTISED ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  79  55  85 /  20   0   0  10
TULIA         52  81  58  84 /  10   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     53  82  59  85 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     54  84  61  87 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  84  62  87 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  85  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  86  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  85  62  87 /  10  10  10  20
SPUR          56  87  63  87 /   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     59  90  67  89 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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