Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 270920
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
420 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE WILL
MOVE TO 4-CORNERS BY MIDDAY AND ERN NEW MEXICO BY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING
TO NW AND NORTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH
WINDS GOING LIGHT BY EVENING. OVERALL A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS FAR BELOW THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

.LONG TERM...
ONE MORE WINDY DAY MAY BEFALL THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS WEEK
FOLLOWING ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND THE SUBSEQUENT PASSAGE OF A ROBUST DRYLINE. PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN LARGELY INTACT PRECEDING THIS DRYLINE FROM LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS GROWING
NWP SPREAD WITH THIS SCENARIO - MUCH OF WHICH HINGES ON HOW
RAPIDLY A WARM FRONT AND THE NOSE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCELERATE
NORTH THU NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY ORIGINATES FROM A DRY COLD FRONT
CREEPING SOUTH FROM THE PANHANDLE BEFORE DAYBREAK THU. THE NAM
REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT/S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
WHEREAS THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SREF MEAN ARE GENERALLY MORE
BULLISH WHICH GET OUR VOTE FOR NOW. PRESSURE FALLS FARTHER WEST
AHEAD OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL THEN SPUR NELY SFC WINDS TO
VEER SELY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEGIN A STEADY INFLUX OF
IMPROVING MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE 4-8K FOOT LAYER WHERE THE
BIGGEST MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL BE DELIVERED ISENTROPICALLY.

NON-NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE ELEVATED CAPE AS SOON
AS 22Z ON THU NORTH OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT AND AS FAR WEST
AS LUBBOCK. UNFORTUNATELY...INCREASING NWP SPREAD WITH QPF AND
WHAT IS LOOKING TO BE ONLY ISOLATED T-STORM COVERAGE HAS FORCED
THIS FORECASTER/S HAND TO SKIM THE AFTERNOON CHANCE POPS BACK TO
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS. WE CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY WHEN THE ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
STRONGEST DCVA OVERSPREAD THE CWA. DECENT ELEVATED CAPE AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR POINT TO SOME SEVERE HAILERS BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING
NEWD TOWARD THE CO FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY...PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF
ASCENT AHEAD OF DEEP DRY SLOTTING THROUGH THE DAY ARGUES IN FAVOR
OF WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE CAPROCK. THE AFTERNOON DRYLINE HOWEVER
MAY EASILY RESIDE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
ADDITIONAL T-STORMS DEVELOPMENT - THIS TIME SURFACE BASED AND
PERHAPS SEVERE ONCE AGAIN. MUCH OF THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON MORNING STORMS AND ADEQUATE DESTABILIZATION.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IN NERN CO WILL DRIFT NEAR THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WHILE BECOMING STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY...AT LEAST
UNTIL PHASING WITH A KICKER WAVE FARTHER WEST. THIS COMPLEX PROCESS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN LATER MODEL RUNS...BUT THE OVERALL THEME
THIS MANY DAYS OUT IS WHAT MATTERS MOST AND THAT CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A SHIFT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
BROAD PRECIP CHANCES UNDER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. RAW MODELS ARE NOT
IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF VARIOUS
COLD FRONTS AND S/W TROUGHS DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH THE GEFS
MEAN AFFORDS SOME STABILITY FOR NOW AND FITS QUITE WELL WITH THIS
COOL/CLOUDY/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93



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