Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 202000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
300 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

The heat is on again this afternoon. Main question in the near term
is whether there will a repeat of the high-based showers and thunder
that we had yesterday. At this point it is looking unlikely. As of
18Z a dryline had pushed eastward to near a Childress to Brownfield
line, further east than yesterday as a low-amplitude upper level
short wave trough is moving out of northeastern New Mexico and
southeastern Colorado. In addition, winds to the east of the dryline
have veered to the southwest with little to no low level confluence,
let alone convergence. There has been a short line segment of
cumulus develop across the Rolling Plains, but those clouds are
already shifting eastward out of the forecast area. There may be
just enough moisture (dew points in the 40s) linger across the
southeastern quarter of the forecast area that the extreme heating
of the afternoon might be enough to release the conditional
instability, but the upper trough shifting to the east of the region
and any susbsidence behind it might be enough to stifle development.
Current plan is to keep precip mention out, but will reevaluate
before publishing the forecast.

The overnight looks to be a mild to warm one again followed by
another very warm day on Tuesday as upper ridging will remain
overhead, although there is a slight decrease in heights progged
compared to the is afternoon. The introduction of a backdoor cold
front moving into the northeastern third of the forecast will be the
biggest difference from the last two days. That front is expected to
move to near a Tulia to Dickens to Guthrie line by mid-afternoon
with some slightly cooler temperatures behind it, the better cold
advection being delayed until Tuesday night. This front might be the
focus for some isolated thunderstorm develop Tuesday afternoon. The
suite of models suggest that as a possibility, but all keep any
precipitation quite isolated in nature. Will keep precip mention out
at this time with PoPs near 10 percent along the expected location
of the frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon.

Despite having an upper ridge axis overhead Wednesday temps will be
cooler than Tuesdays temps by roughly 15 degrees as cool
northeasterly flow remains at the surface. Thursday will warm back
up into the 80s across the FA as an upper trough pushes eastward
across the Desert Southwest and winds pull back to the south as a
lee trough develops across the foothills of CO. Winds will steadily
increase into the afternoon Thursday as a dryline develops and the
lee trough deepens. Surface dewpoints into the 50s should provide
enough moisture to allow for convective development along the
dryline Thursday afternoon especially if the approaching trough
continues on its current forecasted path and keeps a slightly
negative tilt. Some severe convection would be possible Thursday
afternoon/evening with the main severe threat being large hail and
damaging wind. Wind will already be an issue without convection as
MOS guidance is continuing to forecast winds will above advisory
criteria. The low associated with the lee trough/dryline is progged
to push southeastward across the TX/OK Panhandles while deepening.
The H700 gradient supports this as well along with the proximity
of the upper low. The forecast will continue to reflect strong winds
in the forecast with winds on the low end being sustained near 30
mph. Winds should "lighten" after sunset and before midnight but
will pick back up again before sunrise as a cold front approaches
the FA. Winds behind the front are expected to be even stronger with
staying in the 35 mph+ range for a few hours. The only plus side to
the forecast is highs will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Saturday will be cool with area wide temps hovering in the low 70s
by the afternoon. Sunday will warm back up into the mid 70s/ low 80s
once again as an upper ridge moves overhead.




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