Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 062027
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
327 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH MORE IS EXPECTED OUT OF
THIS FEATURE FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A WEAKER SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE
ONE OVERHEAD WAS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CROSSING INTO THE
PANHANDLES. BESIDES THE SHORT WAVE...WE WILL BE LACKING ANY UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO BE UNFASHIONABLY LATE...NOT MOVING OVERHEAD
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST ACTIVITY
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM KANSAS THROUGH THE WESTERN PANHANDLE THEN
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
LOW END SURFACE CONVERGENCE. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E
VALUES WERE OBSERVED WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND HAS LED TO
HEALTHY INSTABILITIES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THIS
AXIS WAS STILL NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE PANHANDLES AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE. ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ISOLATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO A FURTHER NORTH LOCATION FOR THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN CHANCES LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OPTED TO LEAVE POPS ALONE FOR NOW TO SEE IF THIS TREND
HOLDS SINCE MODELS HAVE A PRETTY POOR HANDLE ON SUBTLE DETAILS
THAT COULD SWAY THE POP FORECAST EITHER WAY.  ANY HOPES FOR
PRECIPITATION AFTER THAT LOOK PRETTY SLIM AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO
THE EAST SOME AND HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH THE
INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  92  64  91  66 /  10   0   0  10  10
TULIA         64  94  66  93  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  93  66  91  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  92  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       67  93  69  93  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   66  92  66  90  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    66  93  67  91  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     71  99  71  96  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          69  96  69  94  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     72  97  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14




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