Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 240900
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE DATA SHOWED A MATURE CYCLONE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS SOUTH TO WHITE SANDS. AS THESE FEATURES
TRANSLATE EAST TODAY...INCREASINGLY DEEP AND VERY DRY WESTERLY
FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BEHIND A SHARPENING DRYLINE
PROGGED TO STALL NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY PEAK HEATING.
INSUFFICIENT ASCENT AND MEAN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD KEEP THIS DRYLINE VOID OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR DOMAIN.
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DRYLINE...DEEP MIXING WILL BE NO
CHALLENGE TODAY AND SHOULD EVEN TAP INTO A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 700
MB WINDS RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. THIS WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME AND RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE EASILY SUPPORT PUSHING MAX
TEMPS AOA THE WARMEST MOS NUMBERS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF
50-60 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON ON THE CAPROCK BY LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES. HOWEVER...THE WILDFIRE THREAT
IS LARGELY OFFSET BY THE CONTINUED GREENING OF FUELS...SO NO
WILDFIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ARE DEEMED NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
DOES NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER MONDAY
MORNING. THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY. TUESDAY STILL APPEARS
TO BE A WINDY DAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS TRACK USUALLYDOES
PRODUCE WINDY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION AND TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE NO
EXCEPTION. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER
AND ON TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO PEAK SPEEDS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. STILL
WILL SEE 25 TO 35 MPH WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE CAPROCK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SOME BLOWING DUST...THE ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD BE LOWER
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRYLINE WILL MIX PRETTY FAR EAST INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA SO RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO
BE PRETTY SLIM FOR THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BUT WITH MUCH LOWER SPEEDS
AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND STALL IT OUT
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE NEXT STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY NEAR OR JUST WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL HELP TO PULL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INSIST THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AND REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN
THE SPEED OF THE CLOSED LOW EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
THE GFS BEING THE SLOWER OF THE TWO AND NOT BRINGING THE TROF AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS FASTER
THAN THE GFS SO THE DIFFERENCES WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST
WINDOW WILL BE NOT ONLY FOR PRECIPITATION BUT POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER AS WELL. LASTLY...THE TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO IMPACT
THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS. ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL
REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK UNTIL WE SEE HOW THE
MODELS WILL HOPEFULLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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