Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 132335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
635 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Isolated thunderstorms that have developed to the northwest of the
terminals are not anticipated to affect any of the terminals this
evening. There is another chance of low CIGS Saturday morning but
confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at the moment.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

After the brief bout of low clouds and fog across portions of the
central and southwestern South Plains this morning, we have
received strong insolation with 20Z temperatures warming into the
upper 80s and lower 90s at most spots. This heat along with weak
convergence along a surface trough was supporting scattered high-
based cumulus across the northwestern zones. These clouds could
potentially bubble into a few thunderstorms through the late
afternoon and early evening hours. MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg and
0-6 km wind shear of 30 knots could support a strong storm or two,
though organized strong/severe storms are not anticipated. Even
if the late afternoon activity fails to mature, additional
convection currently forming over the higher terrain of eastern
New Mexico will have a good shot of clipping our far northwestern
zones around/over Parmer County as it translates northeastward.
Otherwise, moist southerly breezes will keep overnight
temperatures on the mild side. We could see another bout of low
clouds and fog attempt to develop toward Saturday morning, though
signals are weak and patchy ground fog and/or dew are a better

Saturday will provide another warm day as breezy and relatively
moist southwesterly winds persist. Highs will again rebound into
upper 80s and lower 90s, except perhaps across southwest Texas
Panhandle where more persistent mid-level cloud cover could keep
temperatures down somewhat. We could again see isolated convection
attempt to develop along a pre-frontal surface trough over the
Caprock Saturday afternoon, but the better chances will develop
Saturday night. This will occur as a potent upper level trough
currently over the northwestern states advances through the central
and northern High Plains. Although the bulk of the lift with this
system will pass by to the north it will propel a seasonably strong
cold front southward through the South Plains. This front should
enter the northern zones around 03Z and quickly sweep southward,
likely positioned well south of the CWA by 09Z. As the front plows
into the better moisture/instability a line of thunderstorms will
likely erupt, though how far west the line can build is still in
question. The best storm chances will favor roughly the southeast
half of the FA through the overnight hours before quickly shifting
south of the area. Both deep layer shear and instability should be
up a notch from today, so this could support several strong to
severe thunderstorms. In addition, a strong pressure gradient (and
associated isallobaric component with 3 hour pressure rises of 10-12
mb) will result in gusty post-frontal northerly winds that could
rise to advisory levels (sustained in excess of 30 mph) for a few
hours late Saturday night.

The strong winds will gradually ease through the day on Sunday, but
highs will only rebound into the 60s (maybe struggling to make 60
over the southwest Texas Panhandle) even with abundant insolation. A
surface ridge will settle over West Texas Sunday night providing
light winds and clear skies. This combined with relatively dry air
will promote near ideal radiational cooling. Given this we have
favored the cooler guidance numbers which may support a frost or
light freeze generally north and west of Lubbock.

Light southerly winds will return on Monday under dry northwesterly
flow aloft. This will allow temperatures to rebound several degrees
from Sunday`s levels. The dry conditions and warming trend will
persist into much of next week, with highs returning to the 70s and
lower 80s. The upper flow should gradually flatten by the latter
part of the week with a more significant trough potentially
affecting the region in some manner (increased wind and/or storm
chances) by Day 8 or 9 (Saturday or Sunday).




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