952
FXUS64 KLUB 140437
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1137 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1137 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast through Monday
   evening across the Caprock and Rolling Plains.

 - Storm chances return late Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

02Z upper air analysis reveals an amplifying, subtropical ridge
centered offshore Baja California, with a shearing 250 mb trough
branching over the northern Chihuahua Desert and into the central
Great Plains. The base of this shearing trough was evident on the
14/00Z objectively analyzed UA charts, and lags behind a departing
shortwave trough that has since translated northeastward into the
Corn Belt. The presence of this residual 250 mb trough continues to
impart some degree of baroclinity over the region, and water-vapor
imagery has detected a subtle impulse in the mid-levels. As this
convectively-augmented, mid-level impulse continues to propagate
southward, with its movement governed by the expanding ridge to the
west, additional development of isolated showers and thunderstorms
are now forecast during the overnight hours across most of the
Caprock and Rolling Plains. An anemic low-level jet will also veer
southwestward overnight, acting to keep any nocturnal convection
isolated. The grids have been updated through 12Z tomorrow to
account for this thinking.

At the surface, winds remain weak and backed towards the southeast,
maintaining the component of upslope flow. A diffuse surface trough
was analyzed west of the NM state line, with the nearest low
rotating into central N TX. The lack of any viable boundary or area
of low-level convergence beneath the weak, large-scale forcing for
ascent aloft, will eliminate any potential for flash flooding and
strong-to-severe-caliber storms tonight. Brief downpours will
accompany storms, however. The airmass at the surface and low-levels
will remain barotropic as the 250 mb trough continues to shear out,
but the 30 kt jet streak, analyzed by the 14/00Z MAF RAOB, should
remain intact through tomorrow evening as it is slow to decay from
the maintenance of a ribbon of vorticity stretched over the southern
Great Plains into the TN River Valley.

Isolated-to-widely-scattered storms are expected to develop tomorrow
afternoon across portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains, as the
airmass will once again become uncapped beneath an EML yielding
SBCAPE values upwards of 2,500 J/kg, which is typical this time of
year with a subtropical airmass. Weak steering flow will govern a
mean storm movement via propagation versus advection, with slow-
moving storms expected. However, the anemic steering flow and lack
of shear throughout the cloud-bearing layer will deter organization
of cells. Brief, heavy rainfall directly beneath the cores of the
storms will be the primary hazard with storms tomorrow. Otherwise,
high temperatures will be similar to today, with highs rising into
the middle 80s as geopotential height tendencies remain near neutral
to slightly positive. Storm chances will diminish following the
cessation of vertical mixing while remaining muggy area-wide.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Subtropical ridging will continue to amplify over the Desert
Southwest, with its center rotating over the Four Corners region by
Tuesday. A semi-progressive wave pattern will persist over the 49th
parallel, with a compact shortwave trough forecast to dig into the
Glacier Country. The net increase in the magnitude of cross-barrier
flow will spawn a lee cyclone across eastern CO, with a surface
trough branching southward into eastern NM. A modest isallobaric
response will follow, resulting in breezy, southerly winds returning
to the CWA Tuesday. Rising geopotential heights as the mid-level
ridge noses into the region will boost temperatures into the middle
90s area-wide while also suppressing any storm chances. Persistence
forecasting was applied to Wednesday, with similar sensible weather
conditions expected area-wide, as the shortwave trough dampens in
amplitude and ejects into the northern Great Plains. By Wednesday
evening, WAA-induced showers and storms may develop along the
western edge of the strengthening low-level jet. It appears that the
best chances for late-evening and/or overnight convection will be
across portions of the Caprock, but spatiotemporal coverage should
be isolated as the low-level jet veers prior to sunrise. Barotropy
will become restored by the end of the week as the subtropical ridge
expands across the southern half of the Lower 48, but the 250 mb jet
streak is forecast to remain amplified over the north-central Great
Plains by late week. Renewed storm chances are forecast through the
end of the week, with the best potential Thursday night. Otherwise,
seasonably hot temperatures are forecast through next weekend.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Continued VFR with light winds. ISO-SCT TS are likely to impact LBB
and PVW for the next few hours. Confidence is lower at CDS as it
appears much of the TS development will stay west of the terminal.
By this afternoon, another round of TS is likely just about
anywhere, although low coverage precludes mention in the TAFs for
now.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93