Area Forecast Discussion
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700
FXUS64 KLUB 200444
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1044 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Low level
wind shear is expected overnight at all terminals. Breezy
southwest winds will pick back up tomorrow afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The fire weather theme will continue for the next several days for a
large portion of West Texas and eastern New Mexico. A trough moving
onshore on the west coast this afternoon will shift to the Great
Basin on Saturday. This will continue to induce surface troughing
and cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado and
eastern New Mexico. Downsloping winds will push temperatures well
into the 70s on Saturday afternoon or around 20 degrees above
seasonal averages. Temperatures will cool on Sunday but with
continued dryness.

Much windier conditions will manifest itself on Sunday. The
aforementioned system will eject out onto the Central Plains with
the strongest wind maxes aloft and height gradient overhead the
South Plains and Rolling Plains. Models prog some incredible 90-95
knots at 500mb Sunday morning and afternoon squarely overhead Sunday
morning and afternoon. Fortunately, a low level thermal ridge will
be shunted east during the late morning/early afternoon due to a
pacific cold front. Very deep mixing will continue in the post
pacific front air mass. This will be able to tap into some very
strong winds aloft with the potential for high winds on the caprock.
Our local high wind decision flow chart which uses height gradients
and MSLP gradients indicates possible high winds as well. Zonal flow
aloft will take over through mid week until another sharp trough
moves through the Rockies. This trough may provide for us some
additional windy days late next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions can again be
expected on Saturday afternoon. The most favored area will be across
the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle where critical conditions
were observed Friday afternoon. Extremely warm temperatures and dry
air will allow afternoon relative humidity values to drop to or
below 15 percent area wide.

The same weather system providing the winds on Saturday will ramp up
on Sunday with stronger winds. A mitigating factor on Sunday will be
a cold front moving through during the morning hours which will keep
temperatures around or just above seasonal averages. Because of
this, critical relative humidity values may only be observed over
the Rolling Plains and southern South Plains. Although it will still
be possible for the entire South Plains and extreme southern Texas
Panhandle to see critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for TXZ021>044.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

$$

99/99/28



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