Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 180858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
358 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Another calm night on the South Plains, but looking at water vapor,
our next weather maker is quite apparent over southern AZ. A wave
that will slowly deepen as it moves into our region by Thursday,
will pull moisture into the region. Latest guidance shows a much
deeper plume of moisture streaming in, which combined with some
skinny CAPE, looks to give a shot for at least slight chance PoPs
for Thursday. We will definitely see a dip in temperatures as
heights fall from the approaching trough.

As this first trough pulls away, the next trough we will deal with
will be developing over the Pacific NW. At first deepening of this
feature will be slow at it moves eastward, however, as the northern
jet briefly dips southward on Saturday, the trough will deepen
enough to reach the South Plains. The question still remains just
how far east the trough will make it before deepening occurs. It
looks to be quite close, but too far east, and our rain chances will
drastically drop. Attm, chose to keep slight chance PoPs across the
eastern half of the FA, but these may need to be trimmed once we see
the actual trough begin to develop. One positive, the passing trough
will drag a cold front through the region for Sunday, pulling
temperatures down to at least climate norms. Have chosen to keep
temperatures for Sunday and Monday slightly below MOS guidance as
the front appears to be strong enough to pull in a deep, dry and
cold enough air mass to decently moderate temperatures. Models have
once again reintroduced the closed low feature over North Texas. As
the northern jet retreats northward, support for the trough is
effectively cut off, orphaning the trough allowing it to pinch off
into a closed low. Depending on exactly where this occurs, we could
siphon off a bit more cool air into the region. However, too far
eastward, and there will be no effect. This is well out into Day 7,
and since models have vacillated so on this feature occurring or
not, have chosen to keep the output of the Blend attm.




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