Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 301151
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
651 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY WHILE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WILL COMBINE FOR A GREAT DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

H85 RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF...IN WAKE OF EXITING LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS DESSERT
SOUTHWEST...BEGINS MID LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND CROSS
TX/NM LINE SATURDAY EVENING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. BUT SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR SOUTH RESPONDING TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN CALIF
AND ARIZONA LATER TODAY WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS NRN NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
PROGGED TO BE DAMPENING AS IT EJECTS...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK IN COMBINATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A
RATHER COOL AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OOZ
MODEL BLEND POPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUN/FCST AND STILL APPEAR QUITE
REASONABLE. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE MIDWEST AND AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS SWD WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE COOL AIR MONDAY AND WILL HANG ONTO 20-30 PCT POPS. TEMPS
WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THE DAYTIME HIGHS...AS
NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AIR WELL INTO MONDAY AND AS
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A FEW NW FLOW STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THE NWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS ARE THEN PRETTY QUICK TO BRING PRECIP BACK TO THE
AREA IMMEDIATELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF
THE FCST AREA FRIDAY. ANY PRECIP FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FCST THAT ENDS WITH FRIDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY LATE WEEK FCST ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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