Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 110541
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1041 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

...Critical fire weather conditions return for the far southeast
plains Monday...

Winds will increase again tomorrow behind a dry cold front dropping
through the southeast plains.  Once again, low humidity values and
winds gusting to around 25 mph will result in favorable conditions
for fire growth and spread across the eastern most counties of
Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties.  Gradient winds will be strongest
from late morning to early afternoon then gusts should start to
settle down towards 2-3 PM.  Still looks like 3 hours of critical
conditions will be met, so will hoist a Red Flag for tomorrow in
concurrence with surrounding offices.

Otherwise...dry weather will continue.  Humidity levels will remain
low with poor night time recoveries for most areas.  Luckily winds
also appear to stay light, so no highlights needed elsewhere.
Temperatures tonight will likely cool efficiently in the higher
trapping valleys and took blended model grids down close to colder
guidance values for min temperatures(similar to last nights
performance). Tomorrow will be another mild day with temperatures
well above climo.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Not much change to the forecast thinking through the extended
period. The ECMWF has changed a bit with a system on Thursday, but
otherwise there is little difference between the operational
solutions.

Monday night through Wednesday...the blocking high will remain in
place over the western conus, while a large upper trough sits over
the eastern states. This will put southern Colorado under dry
northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will remain pleasant with upper
50s to lower 60s for highs Tuesday and Wednesday. Breezy
conditions near the Kansas border will bring elevated fire weather
concerns to that area on Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday...the GFS has remained consistent with a trough dropping
south out of the Northern Plains into the Missouri Valley, staying
well to the east. The main impact would be a cold front with
slightly cooler temperatures across the Plains. The ECMWF, which
has changed over the past 24 hours, drops the trough south out of
Montana and across Colorado Wednesday night through Thursday
evening. This more western storm track would bring a cold front
across the region with better upslope flow across the Plains and a
quick shot for light precipitation across the mountains and I-25
corridor. Not a ton of cold air with this trough, so snow levels
would be high. For now, kept the forecast dry given the GFS
consistency of a dry forecast, but will keep an eye on the ECMWF.

Friday...the upper pattern will begin to shift on Friday with flat
flow across the region as an upper trough drops south out of the
Pacific Northwest. Expect dry conditions on Friday with gusty
winds across the Plains. This will help temperatures warm into the
60s and will also bring a heightened fire weather concern to the
area.

Saturday and Sunday...the upper storm system over the Pacific
Northwest will drop southeast across the region over the weekend.
Currently model solutions keep a bulk of the energy to our north.
This would mean much of the area would remain dry, with the
exception of maybe a few snow showers over the Central Mountains
on Saturday. Temperatures will be cooler with 50s for highs.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1040 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours
with diurnal winds under 15 kts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Monday for COZ234-236-
237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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