Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161736
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

QUICK UPDATE WAS MADE TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS IN CLEARING. WEB
CAMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING AND NICE
LAYER OF FRESH SNOW. THINK SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO INVADE FROM THE NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TARGET TODAY. COOLED
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY OFF A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO FRESH SNOW
COVER...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME NORTH WINDS MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 30. -KT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

EXPIRED WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. SNOW IS JUST ABOUT OVER. ALSO
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

ALLOWED NORTHERN PARTS OF WINTER STORM AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

...SNOWFALL WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING THEN JUST PLAIN COLD...

BACK EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS JUST REACHING PUEBLO AT THIS
TIME.  AREA OF SNOWFALL HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD WITH
TIME THIS MORNING...WITH INTENSITIES GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...WITH SNOWFALL PRETTY MUCH MOVING SOUTH OF
COLORADO ENTIRELY AFTER 8 AM.  THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
THE EASTERN SAN JUANS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THINGS WILL BE OVER.
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING.

THEN THE CHALLENGE BECOMES THE TEMPERATURES.  FRESH ARCTIC AIR AND
FRESH SNOW COVER MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF WAY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.  USING THE BEST MODEL BLEND I COULD FIND AND
TWEAKING THINGS HERE AND THERE...CAME UP WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
20S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY 20S AND TEENS...WITH
ONLY SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.  ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND
CHILLS TO OCCASIONALLY HIT AROUND 10 BELOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AROUND 20 BELOW AT TIMES OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
APPROPRIATE ATTIRE SHOULD BE WORN.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE CHALLENGE.  STILL DEALING
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND ARCTIC AIR.  THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIR
MASS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO IS FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...THE AIR MASS VERY DRY
AND THE WINDS LIGHT.  SHOULD BE A NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WHICH MEANS THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY NOT CATCH THE
OVERALL COOLING POTENTIAL TOO WELL.  IT ALSO MEANS THE FORECASTER
MAY NOT DO TOO WELL.  ANYWAY...PUT TOGETHER THE BEST GUIDANCE BLEND
I COULD AND THEN TWEAKED HERE AND THERE.  CAME UP WITH GENERALLY 5
ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE PLAINS.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...NOT SO DEEP IN THE ARCTIC AIR...GENERALLY CAME UP WITH 5
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE...WITH THE BELOW ZERO READINGS FAVORING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY
AND THE ABOVE ZERO READINGS FAVORING THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY.  ONCE AGAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH ENOUGH BREEZE AT TIMES FOR VALUES TO HIT NEAR 15 BELOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 25 BELOW AT TIMES
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THE WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BE
QUIET...BUT THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS BOTH DAYS. GUIDANCE ON MONDAY SEEMS A
BIT HIGH...WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND MIXING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH AROUND 30 DEGREES. ON TUESDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWS
TEMPERATURES MUCH HIGHER...AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN MONDAY
MAKE SENSE...AS THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND PERHAPS THE PLAINS. HOW FAR EAST THAT WILL OCCUR IS
THE ISSUE. COMBINED WITH THE RECENT SNOW COVER...HAVE UNDERCUT
HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT...IN SOME CASES BY MORE THAN
10 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING MINOR WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...CAUSING SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISES INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES ON ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. FOR NOW...THE SYSTEM
BEARS WATCHING...AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. -TM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES TODAY. KALS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE NW WINDS AROUND 14 KTS BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT KALS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY IF SOME
MELTING OCCURS TODAY. HAVE NOT PUT THIS IN THE 18Z TAF YET DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT MAY BE INCLUDED IN A FUTURE ISSUANCE IF
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE INCREASES. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



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