Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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835
FXUS65 KPUB 141107
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
407 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 407 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

Today and tonight...

Drier weather is expected today...aside from some isolated morning
showers across extreme southern portions of the area early. Clouds
will be clearing from north to south during the first half of the
day.  This will allow temperatures to return to near normal for most
areas.   With lighter flow over the mountains today...winds should
not be of too much concern...however the plains will continue to see
some breezy north winds through the day.

Upper ridge will transition in from the northwest advecting warmer
air in aloft over the region tonight.  Winds will decouple so
temperatures could still be quite cool in the valleys.  Brought
temperatures down a few degrees from the consensus blend. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

Primary longer term meteorological issues include temperatures, gusty
winds at times and increasing pops from later in the weekend into
early next week.

Recent longer term PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast
model soundings indicate that varying degrees of transitory upper
ridging/southwesterly upper flow pattern will be noted over the
forecast district from Wednesday into the weekend in advance of
somewhat unsettled conditions from later in the weekend into
early next week as system impacts southern Colorado.

Meanwhile at the surface, varying degrees of eastern Colorado
lee-side trough is anticipated from later Wednesday into early
next week.

For sensible weather, anticipate that basically dry conditions in
combination with well above seasonal mid-February temperatures
should be noted over eastern sections from Wednesday into Sunday
morning with precipitation potential increasing from later Sunday
into Monday in combination with continued above seasonal
temperatures.

Meanwhile, western portions of the CWA should experience near to
slightly above seasonal temperatures during the balance of the
longer term in combination with increased pops at times from
Friday into early next week.

The highest potential for gusty winds during the longer term are
anticipated from Saturday night into Monday while the warmest
temperatures during the longer term should be noted Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 407 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

North winds will increase at KCOS and KPUB this morning between 10-
15 kts with occasional gusts to 15-25 kts at times...particularly at
KCOS.  Winds will decrease during the late afternoon and remain
fairly light overnight.  Meanwhile KALS will see light winds.
Mid/high VFR cloud deck at KPUB and KALS will decrease this morning
with mostly clear skies expected overnight. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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