Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221739
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING AND
UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THERE MAY AGAIN BE MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH SHOULD
THEN DISSIPATE AROUND MIDMORNING SATURDAY. KPUB SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME...HOWEVER WITH TSTMS PROBABLY BEING IN
THE VCNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...IF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THE AREA THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KPUB WHICH COULD MEAN A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE PERIOD...BUT SHOWER/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28


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