Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 080521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1021 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

...Strong winds and Critical Fire Weather conditions expected for
the Plains...

Upper jet dropping down the back side of long wave central U.S.
upper trof will provide sufficient lift for another round of snow
showers late this afternoon through tonight across the central
mountains, southeast mountains and adjacent plains.  Any
accumulations should remain minor, around an inch or less for most
lower elevation sites and perhaps up to 2 inches or a little better
across the higher peaks. Snow will initially focus along the Palmer
Divide through this evening before spreading into the Raton Pass
area through the overnight hours.

With cloudy skies overnight, and warmer air spreading in from the
north, low temperatures tonight will be warmer than last nights, and
will likely hit their minimum during the evening hours across the
higher peaks.  After that soundings show warming through the layer
overnight. Didn`t stray too far from blended guidance but there is a
fair bit of uncertainty as to how fast and how far temperatures may
drop this evening...especially southern sections where cloud cover
isn`t too dense yet.

For Friday...winds and high fire danger will be the primary concern
and will be going out with a Red Flag Warning for all of the
southeast plains mainly along/east of I-25.  Could be some near high
wind criteria across the plains as well if deep mixing can tap some
50+kt winds aloft.  However confidence is low as surface pressure
gradient decreases some in the afternoon suggesting that stronger
winds may not mix down as efficiently.  Area with greatest potential
for winds approaching high wind criteria would be eastern El Paso
county and Kiowa County.  Will hold off on any high wind highlights
for now, and let later shifts re-assess.

Otherwise...Friday will be dry and warmer district wide with
temperatures returning to above normal. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Friday night-Sunday...Warm and dry weather remains in the offing for
the upcoming weekend, as northerly flow aloft continues to weaken
Friday night and then becomes more northwest Saturday and Sunday,
with high amplitude upper level ridging across the West Coast
building into the Great Basin. Breezy north to northwest winds
across the area Friday evening will give way to generally light west
to northwest downslope flow through the rest of the weekend, save
for some breezy northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph possible across the
far southeast plains Saturday afternoon with expected mixing.
Warming aloft will help boost temperatures back to above seasonal
levels once again, with highs in the 50s and 60s across the lower
elevations, and in 30s and 40s across the higher terrain through the
weekend, with the warmest readings expected on Sunday.

Sunday night-Tuesday...A short wave digging down the back side of
the long wave ridge across the Great Basin will increase winds aloft
Sunday night and Monday, as it continues into the Upper Midwest.
This will allow for breezy north to northwest winds to develop
across across the plains, most notable closer to the Kansas border,
Monday afternoon and evening, with dry conditions and only slightly
cooler temperatures expected across the area. Dry conditions
continue on Tuesday with temperatures warming back to near Sunday
levels under a generally light downslope wind regime.

Wednesday-Thursday...Lower confidence in the rest of the longer
range forecast, as latest models are differing on how far west and
the strength of, more short wave digging down the backside of the
upper ridge. For now, model consensus keeps the area dry and warm on
Wednesday with cooler and more unsettled weather in offing for
Thursday. Time will tell.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1015 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Threat for -shsn has shifted south of KPUB this evening, with only
some brief MVFR cigs/vis likely over the mountains and along the
srn I-25 corridor from K4V1 to KTAD through 08z before skies begin
to clear. On Fri, VFR conditions across all of the area with
strong north winds developing, especially over the eastern plains.
KPUB and KCOS will see gusts in the 35-45 kt range for a time in
the afternoon, while KALS gusts to 25 kts. Winds will quickly
diminish after 00z Fri evening.


Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for COZ226>237.



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