Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 142049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions increase for San Luis Valley

Been a slow onset to winds in the San Luis Valley today just as high
res models suggested.  Big Horn raws has been gusting to around
20-28 mph this afternoon and HRRR and local WRF have this axis of
winds extending eastward across southern portions of the valley
through early evening.  Unfortunately this location is rather
sparse in surface observations.  Given the upper level
gradient is still tightening through late afternoon...there is
still a 3 hour window of Red Flag criteria to be met across the
southern 2/3rds and western fringe of the San Luis Valley before will let the Red Flag Warning ride out to expiration.
Elsewhere...Walsenburg and the gap flow region south of Colorado
City has also been occasionally hitting Red Flag criteria this well as spotty areas along/west of I-25...but most of
these areas have been getting only brief hits and conditions still
aren`t widespread enough to hoist a Red Flag Warning.
Tonight...expect winds to diminish during the evening as atmosphere
decouples.  I-25 corridor and lower eastern slopes should stay rather
warm tonight given some enhanced westerly drainage flows.  This will
lead to poor humidity recoveries for these areas.

More of the same is expected for Saturday...though the upper level
gradient looks a little tighter from the start of the day.  Winds
should mix down across the lower elevations a little sooner and
San Luis Valley appears to have a better shot of hitting Red Flag
criteria. So will hoist a Red Flag warning for tomorrow.  Winds look
lighter across the plains on Saturday though humidity levels will
still remain low. Therefore plains should stay below criteria. Still
getting some pockets of critical conditions along/west of the
I-25 corridor...but it isn`t persistent enough or widespread enough
to justify a Red Flag warning at this point.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Primary longer term meteorological concerns include temperatures,
critical fire weather concerns/gusty winds at times into Monday
evening as well as precipitation potential by later next week.

Recent longer range PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations indicate that basically dry southwesterly to
zonal upper flow will prevail over the forecast district from
Saturday night into at least Monday night with models then
beginning to diverge into later next week with the 12Z/14th ECMWF
keeping the forecast district relatively dry into next Friday as
an upper ridge develops over west-central Arizona by 00Z Saturday.

On the other side of the equation...the 12Z/14th GFS attempts to
develop an closed upper low over the 4-Corners region by 06Z
Thursday...before slowly shifting this closed upper low into
east-central New Mexico by 06Z Saturday...which would be a much
wetter/actove solution(when compared to recent ECMWF) for at
least southern Colorado by late week.

For sensible weather and based on model results during the past
several this time am leaning towards the more
conservative ECMWF solution and will depict somewhat increasing
pops by later next week in combination with cooler temperatures.
As always...WFO Pueblo will monitor latest trends closely.

In addition...have hoisted a Fire Weather Watch for roughly the
eastern 2/3rds of the forecast district from late Sunday morning
into Sunday evening due to continued very warm temperatures...
projected low minimum relative humidity values and gusty winds. weather highlights will most likely be needed again
over similar locations from later Monday morning into Monday
evening. Gusty winds at times are also expected over many
locations from Saturday night into Monday evening.

Finally, maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to run
above mid-October climatological averages from Saturday evening
into Monday night with cooler to colder conditions developing over
the forecast district from Tuesday into late next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with passing high
cloudiness at times.  Increasing west to southwest flow aloft will
keep windy conditions across the higher peaks at night...which will
spread down into the lower elevations along/west of I-25 during the
afternoon.  KALS will see a window of southwest winds 15-25 kts
after 19z Saturday.  KPUB and KCOS will also see southwest winds in
the afternoon around 10-15 kts in the afternoon. -KT



Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ221-222-224>237.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ224.


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