Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 121121
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
421 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

...Heavy Snow in the San Juan Mountains today and tonight...

Upper trough swinging through the Great Basin this morning, with
extensive mid/high level cloud shield already spreading across CO.
Leading edge of steadier precip coming into wrn CO as of 11z, and
already seeing some light snow over the San Juans as upward motion
begins to increase. For today, as trough approaches, snow will
increase along the Continental Divide, with periods of heavy snow
likely over the San Juans under favorable swly orographic flow.
Nudged up snow amounts somewhat in the current warning area, as
model and WPC QPF have come in a little heavier the last few runs.
Higher peaks of the Central Mountains will see some brief bursts of
heavy snow as well, though orographics aren`t quite as favorable
here and snow amounts will be less. Interior valleys and eastern
mountains will see some spillover rain and snow showers by
afternoon, though accums here look light and limited to mainly the
higher peaks. East of the mountains temps today will be tricky with
downslope flow and warming mid levels offset by high clouds and
residual snow cover. Given poor mixing forecast by various models
along nrn I-25, cut back max temps somewhat in the in the
Pueblo/Colorado Springs areas, while srn I-25 corridor and areas on
the eastern plains with less snow cover will be slightly warmer.

Overnight, snow continues along the Divide, though a gradual
decrease in intensity will begin after midnight, especially across
the Central Mountains, while eastern San Juans continue to pick up
moderate to heavy snow into Tue morning. Could see around 2 feet of
much needed snow near Wolf Creek Pass by sunrise Tue, and will keep
all highlights going through the night. Farther east, clouds and
downslope winds will keep mins on the mild side, especially in usual
warm pockets along and east of the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 420 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

Tuesday...Models continue to agree on placing the upper closed low
over southern CA early Tuesday, with a strong upper jet pumping
moisture across the Four Corners and into western CO. The system is
forecast to move off the CA shore through the day, which will allow
snow to weaken over the Continental Divide. It does look like
moderate snow will continue over the sw mts through about 15z
Tuesday morning, so extended the highlights for another 3 hrs.
Otherwise, look for pcpn to diminish across the area through the
morning, with just some lingering snow showers over the central mts
through the evening hrs. Temps are expected to warm into the 40s to
around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the
plains.

Wednesday through Friday...The upper low off the CA coast will start
to move back onshore on Wed, bringing increasing snow chances for
the mts once again by late aftn. The upper jet carving out the
southern edge of the trough will persist over the Four Corners,
producing strong gusty downslope winds across the plains with gusts
of 30 to 35 mph, which will in turn push temps into the 60s to near
70F for the plains.

Another upper disturbance aloft in the northern stream drops down
across the Rockies late Wed, which will merge with the southern
upper low on Thu. This will bring pcpn chances back to the state for
Thursday through Friday morning, as a cold front drops south across
the Palmer Divide and eastern plains Thu aftn. The upper trough axis
exits the state Fri morning, and pcpn is expected to end by midday.
Look for high temps Thu in the 40s to mid 50s for most locations,
then 30s to lower 40s most areas on Fri.

Saturday and Sunday...Dry nw flow settles in across the state for
Sat, then becomes westerly on Sun ahead of another longwave
trough approaching from the Pacific NW. Models hint at isolated
snow returning to the central mts Sun aftn, but plenty of time for
that solution to change so low confidence at this time. Expect
max temps in the mid 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and
50s to around 60F for the plains both days. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 420 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

VFR expected at KCOS and KPUB today and tonight, with rather thick
high level cirrus cigs through the period. KALS will see
thickening/lowering mid level cigs today, and a few spill-over
rain/snow showers will be possible from late morning through
tonight, leading to brief MVFR conditions under any short-lived
heavier showers. Over the mountains, higher terrain along the
Continental Divide will be obscured by clouds and snow, with
IFR/LIFR conditions becoming widespread today and tonight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Tuesday for COZ058-060-
066.

Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM MST Tuesday for COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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