Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 121048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...CHILLY FALL STORM OVER THE REGION...

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW
COVERS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING.  MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.

RADAR INDICATES WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A SPOTTY FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS REMAINING.
EARLY GAGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
HUNDRETHS UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW
HEAVIER AMOUNTS HERE AND THERE.

TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN SLOPE
AREAS...GENERALLY INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.  LOWEST READINGS RIGHT
NOW ARE ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES WHERE READINGS
ARE IN THE LOWER 30S...AND EVEN UPPER 20S ACROSS PARTS OF TELLER
COUNTY.  DESPITE THE FREEZING TEMPS...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FROST
OR A KILLING FREEZE AS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP TO
CONTAIN THE THREAT.

THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ON INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE EAST...BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY OVER THE EAST
TODAY...HOLDING ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  RECORDS LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY IN COLORADO SPRINGS AND PUEBLO ARE 41 AND 44
DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY...BOTH OCCURRING BACK IN 1989.  SO...VERY
CHILLY TODAY BUT NO WHERE NEAR RECORDS EXPECTED.  MEANWHILE...OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS...WHERE THERE HAS
REALLY BEEN LITTLE EFFECT FROM THIS STORM...HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...CHILLY AGAIN...BUT HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MOST
PART.  WARMER AIR STARTS MOVING IN ALOFT LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE OVERALL COOLING POTENTIAL TOWARD MORNING.  FOR
RIGHT NOW...WENT WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
LOWS...AND GENERALLY FROM NEAR 30 TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS.  SO...NO FROST OR FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS APPEAR TO BE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

AFTER SOME LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH BOTH
NAM AND GFS INDICATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS.  LCLS ARE RATHER HIGH...SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH
OF A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REBOUND FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MODELS SUGGEST PERHAPS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH WILL KEEP
POPS MAINLY IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER
DRY.  ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN CO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH UPPER
FORCING REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THIS LOOKS LIKE MORE
OF A SHALLOW DRY COLD FRONT...THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS MAY
SPREAD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.  THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS HOWEVER...WITH EC A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE SFC HIGH AND
THUS COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY VS THE
WARMER GFS.  HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE EC FOR NOW...BUT EVEN SO THIS
NEXT FRONT DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS COLD AS THE ONE WE ARE DEALING
WITH TODAY.  HUNCH IS EASTERN COLORADO MAY BE TOO STABLE ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER
GFS DOES KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...HENCE ITS WETTER SOLUTION
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL RETAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE RE-ASSESSED
AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE CO ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY.  GFS TRIES TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO CO FOR THURS/FRI AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY.  ECMWF ALSO DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROF AND A TAD DRIER
THAN GFS ON THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES BUT
FOR NOW FORECAST WILL CARRY ISOLATED POPS FOR MAINLY MOUNTAIN
AREAS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ADJACENT
EASTERN SLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST LATER IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS INCLUDES BOTH
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES.  MEANWHILE...NOT MUCH GOING ON ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SAWATCH RANGE...WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR RIGHT NOW.  THIS
STORM HAS HAD LITTLE IMPACT ON THOSE AREAS AND THAT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. CONSEQUENTLY...JUST VFR EXPECTED AT KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...LW


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