Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 140500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.Currently...Convection is developing over the mountains, Palmer
Divide, and Raton Ridge. Dew points are well into the 50s and lower
60s on the plains with dew points in the 40s and 50s over most of
the mountains and high valleys.

.Tonight...Consensus among models is to have convection continue to
move eastward during the later afternoon and into the evening.  SPC
continues to have a marginal risk over the plains and eastern
mountains with stronger storms possible in the higher CAPE and low
shear environment.  Storms should mostly dissipate or move out of
the CWA by later in the evening.

.Friday...Plume of monsoon moisture will remain over the CWA.
GOES-16 shows weak disturbance over the four corners and this will
slowly move eastward over the region on Friday, enhancing the
chances for convection during the afternoon.  SPC has a marginal
risk over portions of the eastern plains and eastern mountains. This
make sense with another day of a higher CAPE and low shear
environment. Models show some drier air aloft just to the north of
our CWA, but currently looks as if it will stay just to the north of
the Palmer Divide.  With high precipitable waters and slow storm
motion, will have to monitor for heavy rainfall, especially over the
burn scars.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Monsoonal pattern will continue through the end of the extended
period. An upper disturbance caught under the upper high will lead
to daily showers and thunderstorms across much of the region
Friday night through Sunday. Storms will initiate over the higher
terrain and move east through the evening hours. Locally heavy
rainfall, small hail and gusty outflow winds will be possible,
along with flash flooding. Afternoon highs will reach into the 80s
to lower 90s through the weekend.

The upper high will flatten and shift east a bit Monday into
Tuesday. This will likely keep showers and thunderstorms tied to
the terrain both days, with little movement into the Plains.
Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible. Temperatures will
warm slightly with upper 80s to mid 90s.

By Wednesday into Thursday, the monsoon high will begin to build
back up with moisture returning to the area. Better chances for
showers and thunderstorms are expected area wide. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler late in the week with 80s to lower 90s.
Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible again
during this time period.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1054 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Active monsoon plume will keep scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the mountains and far southeast plains
overnight which will gradually diminish towards morning. While
CIGS will stay primarily VFR, local MVFR conditions will be
possible under the showers in the mountains with local mt top
obscurations in LIFR to IFR conditions. Thunderstorm activity will
increase again towards 18z...affecting the TAF sites after 20z.
VFR cigs/vis and erratic gusty outflow winds up to 30 kts will be
primary risks, however if a stronger storm impacts the terminals,
then conditions could drop into the MVFR category at times under
slow moving more intense storms. -KT




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