Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181743
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1043 AM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

Upper ridge builds over the area today while lee surface trough
slowly deepens on the plains. Should see warming trend continue at
most locations as heights/mid-level temps increase, along with just
enough wind to mix down warmer air to the surface. I-25 corridor and
eastern plains should see maxes 60-65f, while mountains and interior
valleys see mainly 30s/40s. Overnight, upper ridge flattens as wly
flow increases across the area. Winds will increase as surface
pressure gradient begins to tighten, especially in the lee of the
eastern mountains. with the wind, min temps should continue to trend
upward versus the past few nights, though sheltered valleys could
still decouple enough to drop into the single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 AM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

Not much change in forecast thinking as latest models and ensemble
data indicating increasing southwest flow aloft across the region
Friday and Saturday, as Eastern Pacific energy moving onshore across
the West Coast on Friday, carves out a broad upper trough across the
Great Basin through the day Saturday. Dry and warm weather is
expected across the area on Friday, with breezy west to southwest
winds over and near the higher terrain. Warm air aloft along with
the downslope flow will help boost temperatures to well above
seasonal levels on Friday, with highs in the 60s to mid 70s
forecasted across the lower elevations, and mainly in the 40s and
50s across the higher terrain. Highs look to fall shy of current
records for Friday, 56F at ALS in 2000, 70F at COS in 1986 and 75F
at PUB n 1986. The warm and breezy conditions will lead to increased
fire danger on Friday, especially across portions of the Southern I-
25, however, there does not look like enough wind to support
widespread critical fire weather conditions. Warm air aloft and
breezy conditions will lead to a mild overnight lows, especially
across the higher terrain along and west of the I-25 Corridor.

Moisture increases within the increasing southwest flow aloft
across the area ahead of Great Basin system on Saturday, and will
see increasing chances of snow along and west of the ContDvd through
the morning, with snow becoming likely through the afternoon,
especially across the Eastern San Juan and La Garita Mountains,
where several inches of wind driven snow could accumulate through
the day. Further east, another warm and breezy to windy day looks to
be in the offing. Temperatures aloft cool through the day, however,
with the downslope flow, will again see temperatures in the 60s to
lower 70s across the lower elevations, warmest across the far
Southeast Plains. Induced lee troughing across the plains on
Saturday will help mix down gusty southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph
leading to the potential for critical fire weather conditions for
areas along and west of the I-25 Corridor.

Saturday night-Sunday night...Again, latest models remain in decent
agreement of the broad upper trough digging across the Eastern Great
Basin and developing a closed low across the Four Corners Region
Saturday night. Models then lift this system north and east across
the far Southeast Plains through the day Sunday and into North
Central Kansas Sunday night. Current progged track would continue to
bring snow to the ContDvd, especially the Southwest Mts, through
early Sunday morning, with the potential for winter weather
highlights being needed for the Saturday afternoon through Sunday
timeframe. System looks cold enough to support snow spreading east
across the higher terrain and out across the Eastern Plains Saturday
night and Sunday. The exact track of this system remains in
question, however, current projected path would support a period of
wind driven snow with strong and gusty north winds across Eastern
Colorado through the day Sunday, though the heaviest precipitation
would be north and east of the area in Northeast Colorado and
southwestern Nebraska. Time will tell. At any rate, temperatures on
Sunday will be much colder than Saturday, with highs mainly in the
20s and 30s areawide, warmest across the far Southeast Plains.

Monday-Wednesday...Moderating northwest flow aloft on Monday becomes
more westerly on Tuesday and increasing southwesterly on Wednesday,
ahead of another system digging into the Great Basin. This will lead
to a generally dry forecast through the period, save possible light
snow showers across the Central Mountains, along with a slow warming
trend to slightly above seasonal levels by Wednesday. Models do
agree on this system bringing another round of snow and colder
temperatures for later in the work week and into early next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1042 AM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites for the next 24
hours (KALS, KCOS, KPUB). Generally light, diurnally driven winds
will dominate through Friday morning. Westerly winds are expected
to increase to 10-15 knots starting late Friday morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LINE


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