Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 170305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
905 PM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Issued at 904 PM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Updated POPs for tonight based on latest trends and model data.
Also increased cloud cover over the southeast plains for later
tonight and Mon morning.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017

...Isolated Showers and Storms Possible over Parts of the Area...

Waiting this afternoon for the Denver Cyclone and Convergence Zone
to force some convection along or near the Palmer Divide.
Cyclone/zone a little diffuse at the present time but starting to
take shape.  Once it gets a little more organized, high resolution
models develop some moderate to possibly strong cells along or just
north of the Palmer Divide and then move them eastward.  Lightning,
wind gusts to 50 mph and possible penny hail with these storms.
Another area to watch this evening is south along the Raton Mesa in
Las Animas and Baca Counties.  A few isolated storms of similar
caliber possible down there.  Otherwise, there will be a slight
chance of showers or thunderstorms developing along the eastern
mountains and working east across the plains this evening.  This
activity, if it develops, should be pretty isolated with primary
threats of lightning and gusty winds to around 50 mph.

Overnight tonight, moist upslope winds should bring widespread low
cloud development to the plains, with some patchy fog development as
well.  The clouds will likely make it up to the eastern slopes of
the mountains but not over the mountains.  So, the San Luis Valley,
the upper reaches of the Arkansas Valley, and the Continental Divide
will all remain out of the clouds.  However, the clouds may impact
parts of the Upper Arkansas River Valley below Salida, the Wet
Mountain Valley, and the lower reaches of Ute Pass.

The intrusion of low level moisture will set the stage for a little
better severe weather threat across the plains on Monday.  The Storm
Prediction Center has delineated a large area of the southeast
plains at marginal risk for severe weather late Monday. After most
of the low clouds dissipate Monday afternoon, left behind are some
moisture boundaries, particularly across the far southeast plains,
over Las Animas and Baca Counties.  Coupled with a weak shortwave
moving through the central and northern Rockies late in the day, the
moisture pools associated with these boundaries may be enough to
trigger a few strong to severe storms late in the day into the
evening.  If the timing of the shortwave can initiate convection
over the higher terrain in Las Animas County along the Raton Mesa,
then storms may be able to get going.  However, if storms try to
initiate too far east, closer to Kansas, there may be trouble as
forecast soundings show a little more cap to deal with there.  If
storms can get going, there is plenty of CAPE to work with, with
models showing widespread 1000-2000 j/kg of surface and mixed-layer
cape available.  Shear looks good too with 35-45 knots of 0-6KM bulk
values.  So, we will see.  It`s about that time of year!

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Primary longer term meteorological issues include increasing
precipitation potential, primarily from later Thursday into late
week/early weekend, temperatures and gusty winds at times.

Recent longer term computer simulations...forecast model soundings
and PV analysis indicate that zonal to southwesterly upper flow
will prevail over the forecast district into Thursday evening, in
advance of a closed upper low sweeping across Colorado from later
Thursday night into Friday afternoon before upper low shifts into
Kansas from later Friday afternoon into Saturday.

At the surface, next stronger northerly surge during the longer
term is projected to push across eastern sections Wednesday
evening, followed by healthy/cool 1025 MB surface high in the
region from Thursday into next Saturday.

For sensible weather, have depicted generally isolated showers and
thunderstorms favoring eastern sections of the forecast district(some
on the stronger to possibly severe side at times Monday

Then, generally more tranquil and warm conditions are anticipated
over the majority of the forecast district from Tuesday into
Wednesday night(with some precipitation favoring primarily the
central mountains from later Tuesday evening into Wednesday).

Then, as briefly mentioned earlier, increased pops and cooler
conditions should be experienced over many portions of the
forecast district from later Thursday into late week/early weekend
as stronger system impacts the region.

At this time, it appears that the warmest temperatures over the
majority of the forecast district during the longer term should be
experienced from Monday night into Wednesday with coolest
temperatures anticipated from Thursday into Saturday.

In addition, latest indications are that the highest potential for
gusty winds during the longer term should be noted from later
Tuesday into later Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Generally VFR KCOS, KPUB and KALS through about 06Z. High resolution
models are showing some convection developing mainly along or north
of the Palmer Divide and possibly also over some of the mountain
areas and along the Raton Mesa mostly through about 04Z. Areas of
MVFR to LIFR conditions in showers and storms will be possible with
this activity. KCOS could possibly be impacted by this activity if
convection fires a little farther south than currently expected.
KPUB and KALS will likely not be impacted by the convection.

Overnight tonight, widespread low clouds are expected to develop
over most of the plains. KCOS and KPUB will likely be impacted with
MVFR to LIFR CIGS and VSBYS possible. KALS will not be impacted by
the clouds and remain VFR. Low clouds should retreat and dissipate
15-18Z across the plains Monday, including the KCOS and KPUB

Another round of showers and storms, some possibly strong to severe,
will be possible across the plains Monday afternoon.  Too early to
put in TAFs at this point but there is a low chance that KCOS and
KPUB could be impacted by this activity after about 21Z Monday.




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