Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 160555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1155 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Issued at 1154 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Updated grids based on radar trends and higher res models keeping
precipitation ongoing overnight across the far southeast plains.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

...Upper Monsoonal Circulation Still Impacting the Region...

The upper monsoonal disturbance that has been swirling showers and
thunderstorms across the area for the past 24 hours or so continues
to impact the region this afternoon.  The circulation is clear in
satellite and radar loops.  Disturbance will continue to impact the
region through this evening.  Most activity should end from west to
east by around midnight although some activity may linger along the
Kansas border area until after midnight.  Airmass remains very moist
with ample moisture through all depths of the troposphere.  This
will continue to make for very efficient moisture to rainfall
conversion processes. Thus, along with the lightning threat, the
risks of heavy rain and flash flooding will continuing, particularly
on area burn scars.  A few storms may also produce locally gusty
winds to around 50 mph and some small hail.  Based on high res model
runs, it looks like the greatest concentration of storms this
evening may end up over the plains east of the I-25 corridor,
nearest the monsoon circulation center.  Some drier air may actually
begin working into the I-25 corridor region by this evening.

On Sunday, some drier air will start filtering into southern
Colorado on the back side of the old monsoonal disturbance.  This
should bring a much less active day to a lot of the plains. However,
the far eastern plains may be close enough to the old disturbance to
still see a fair number of storms.  Also, the mountains should still
see a fair amount of activity in the afternoon once the lifting
effect from terrain and strong heating kicks in.  So, while the I-25
corridor and most of the plains looks considerably drier, the far
eastern plains and mountains could still be fairly active. The
thunderstorm risks will continue to be the same as today but on a
smaller, more localized scale.  Although the scale will be smaller,
the burn scar areas will still have to be monitored.  If any one of
the scars happens to get hit by a storm, flash flooding will be a
concern given the monsoon moisture that will still exist over the
mountain areas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

The monsoon plume, for the most part, will remain over the region
during this long term forecast period, as guidance shows high RH
values remaining over the area along with a ribbon of max precip
water values. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to likely
over the mountains. However we will likely see somewhat drier
conditions over the lower elevations (as compared to the last few
days) along with warmer conditions. Temperatures over the lower
elevations will warm up with mid to upper 90s returning to the
plains, 70s and 80s mtns/valleys.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1154 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Models continue to indicate drier conditions across the I-25
corridor and southeast plains through the day tomorrow, with
subsidence behind upper circulation lifting north and east across
the far southeast plains this evening. With that said, will keep
COS and PUB in VFR condtions over the next 24 hours, with
convection likely staying west of the taf sites Sunday afternoon.

Showers and ALS through the overnight hours will allow MVRF
conditions and patchy morning fog across the San Luis Valley.
VFR condtions at ALS through the rest of the morning with possible
MVFR conditions expected once again in the afternoon and evening,
as monsoon moisture across western Colorado will keep the threat
of showers and thunderstorms across the terminal.




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