Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261005
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
405 AM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT WX TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER
NRN CA. OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE. JUST A FEW
CLOUDS SEEN ON IR IMAGERY RIGHT NOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
UPPER LOW THAT IS OVER NM.

THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WX SHOULD PEAK THIS AFTERNOON. AM CURRENTLY
FORECASTING HIGH TEMPS THAT ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DAY AT KALS...KPUB...AND KCOS. SO...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO RECORDS BEING HIT THIS AFTERNOON.
H7 TEMPS ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY FOR
PEAK AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE LIGHT...GENERALLY
E-SE WINDS OVER THE PLAINS.

EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY...AND CELLS
SHOULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY. COULD EVEN SEE A STORM OR TWO
OVER THE ERN RANGES...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA. STORMS WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...AND IT SHOULD
BE ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INCREASE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. ROSE


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE WX PATTEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE BURN SCARS WILL BE US...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR...WILL
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
OVER THE AREA. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
BURN SCARS. TRAINING STORMS WOULD BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

SATURDAY...I BELIEVE MOST OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ON
THIS DAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW STORMS ALONG THE CONTDVD ON THIS
DAY...BUT THE HEAVY DUTY WX SHOULD REMAIN IN UTAH AND FAR W CO ON
THIS DAY.

SUNDAY...THIS DAY THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD. WITH STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WE COULD SEE TRAINING STORMS MOVING OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. THIS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE BURN SCARS AND POSSIBLY THE CHALK BLUFF REGION WEST OF BUENA
VISTA. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INSTABILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS...SO WE MAY SEE SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THIS DAY.

MONDAY...SEVERE WEATHER ON THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE THIS DAY. ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BOTH 06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS SHOW THIS SYSTEM COMING ACROSS
NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY
(COOL AIR ALOFT OVER THE WARM SECTOR) ALONG WITH STRONG FORCING. NAM
CAPE (OUT TO 18Z MON) IS SHOWING 1000-1500 JOULES OVER THE PLAINS
ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR ADVECTING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS (40-60 KNOTS
OF DEEP SHEAR). THE HODOGRAPHS OUT EAST ARE NICELY CURVED IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. CONCEPTUALLY...WE COULD SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SUPERCELL STORMS MOVE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WE STILL HAVE QUITE A FEW MODEL
RUNS TO LOOK AT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT FROM A PATTERN
RECOGNITION PERSPECTIVE...MONDAY COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY OVER
THE PLAINS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SPC DOES NOT HAVE AREA
OUTLOOKED DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT NOMINAL CAPE. ALTHOUGH NAM AND EC
DO SHOW SIMILAR CAPE VALUES...GFS ONLY SHOWS ABOUT 750 JOULES.

FROM A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE...MOST OF OUR MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE
SLOW MOVING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SIMILAR TO THIS ONE...
WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION.

AFTER THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...TUESDAY INTO EARLY WED SHOULD BE
DRY WITH COOLER WX.

FROM LATE WED INTO THU ANOTHER MODEST TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EC IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SLOWER WHILE
THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER. SHOWERS AND MTN SNOWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WED.THU TIME FRAME. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



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