Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270527
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MTS
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THIS EVENING AND TO BRING IN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

CURRENTLY...

ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WERE NOTED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND S MTNS. OTHER
AREAS WERE DRY. PUEBLO AREA WARMED UP SURPRISINGLY INTO THE
U80S...WHILE ALL OTHER AREAS WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AT 2 PM.
A WEAK COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM W OF KCOS...TO JUST E OF KPUB AND
DOWN TO KSPD AS PER VIS SAT PIX IMGY.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR/S
MTN REGION...WITH A FEW TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE E SAN JUANS. ALL
OTHER AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DRY. FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS IT IS
TOO CAPPED FOR CONVECTION...AND THE INTERIOR MTNS ARE LIKELY TOO
DRY. GIVEN THERE IS LITTLE FORCING ALOFT...MOST PRECIP SHOULD WANE
AFTER SUNSET OVER THE REGION.

THERE IS STILL A BIT OF CAPE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE...SO ONE
OR TWO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SPANISH PEAKS/RATON MESA REGION.

TOMORROW...

WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAYS WEATHER IN THAT NEARLY ALL
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. HOWEVER...TOMORROW WILL
BE DIFFERENT IN THAT THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT FARTHER INTO THE
MTNS...AND ALL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPS TOMORROW ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...VERY LITTLE CHANGE
NEEDED TO THE OVERALL TREND WHEN IT COMES TO THE ONGOING LONG TERM
FORECAST.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL DO
SO THROUGH TUESDAY. BEGINNING TUE NIGHT THE RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN
A BIT AND EDGE BACK TO THE WEST...AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY INTO FRI.
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED
TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT
THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THU AND FRI.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE SUN AND WED.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE...DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY EACH DAY AND
THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE.
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER THE MTS...AND ISOLATED
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE DRIEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MON AND TUE...AND THE PLAINS ON THOSE DAYS MAY
REMAIN PCPN-FREE. A NORTHERLY SURGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA EARLY WED...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT BUT LITTLE BY WAY OF
COOLER AIR. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED PCPN MAY STRAY
FROM THE DIURNAL PATTERN AND PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BOTH WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE SE MTS OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. AS
UPSLOPE WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE BY 13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE KALS TAF SITE. WILL CARRY VCTS
FOR THAT LOCATION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE SPARSE FOR THE
PLAINS SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF -TSRA OUT OF THE KCOS AND KPUB
TERMINALS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT



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