Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250259
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
859 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.  GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXITING KIOWA COUNTY. EXPECT MOST
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES FOR THE CWA CONTINUE
TO BE TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES(AS NOTED BY THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW OF 101F
TEMPERATURE READINGS AGAIN AT KPUB EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON)...VARIABLE CLOUDS...CONTINUED LOW GRADE GRADIENT WINDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

A 595 DECAMETER UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO/TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  ALSO...RELATIVELY WEAK NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS INTO AT
LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RECENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS...NEAR/SHORT RANGE COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE PLUME IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO...WITH
NORTHERLY NOSE OF PLUME CURRENTLY ENTERING FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND DAILY DIURNAL
OROGRAPHIC CYCLE...SOME WEAK LIFT IS ANTICIPATED(PER PV ANALYSIS)
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TO A LESSER DEGREE
BY LATER SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE NOTED OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEAR/SHORT-TERM.  THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS(ALTHOUGH STILL
LOW-GRADE) SHOULD BE NOTED OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROJECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LOW-GRADE
GRADIENT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH DRYING BY WEEKS END...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OKLAHOMA...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS REGION...WITH A LIGHT MONSOON
FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH INTO COLORADO. THIS WILL
KEEP A DAILY THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE THE DRY
LINE WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT TIMES. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR
MORE...FLOODING RAINFALL AND HAIL 1 INCH OR MORE IN DIAMETER.

TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
BOOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL BE THE SAME AS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE...AND OVER A
GREATER AREA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A PATTERN SHIFT...AS THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA THAT WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RETROGRADES TO
THE WESTERN US...AND REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WOULD
TEND TO PUSH ANY MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH...OUT OF THE STATE...AND
REPLACE IT WITH DRIER...CONTINENTAL AIR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
IF THIS ALL COMES TO PASS...FRIDAY COULD BE A NEARLY THUNDERSTORM
FREE DAY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY BEFORE RADIATIVE PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRIMARY CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. -AL


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77


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