Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 170856
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
156 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 151 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

HOISTING WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SUMMIT OF PIKES PEAK UNTIL 16Z.
TEMP -8 WITH WINDS 25-30 MPH PRODUCING SUSTAINED WIND CHILLS -30
TO -35 UP THERE.  TIME TO FROSTBITE ABOUT 10 MINUTES. OUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES THE
MAIN CONCERN.  WITH THE UPPER TROF NOW WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA HAS CLEARED OUT NICELY.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EVIDENCE OF
THE FACT THAT THE AIRMASS WITH THIS LAST FRONT WAS NOT AS COLD AS
WITH THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC INTRUSION.  BREEZY NORTH WINDS OFF THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND FAR EASTERN
PLAINS HAVE ALSO PROVIDED SOME MIXING TO AID THE WARM UP.  LOOKS
LIKE SNOW HAS MELTED OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...ASIDE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SIDE...WHICH BODES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
OVERNIGHT AS STRONG INVERSIONS SET UP.  ELSEWHERE...FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
SNOW FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
EVENING...SPREADING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
AREA.  HOWEVER...THESE APPEAR TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS IT SKIRTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A
DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER SNOW COVER...SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  EXCEPTION
TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LEE OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME
READINGS AROUND 10-13 DEGREES. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BUT THREAT
LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT.  PROBABLY THE BEST SHOT WILL BE
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE SOME MELTING OCCURRED TODAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...ASIDE FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY.  ANOTHER
INTRUSION OF COLD AIR DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES...BUT CORE OF
COLDER AIR APPEARS TO STAY TO THE EAST. WARMED UP GRIDS A TAD BASED
ON TODAY`S PERFORMANCE...BUT KEPT THEM BELOW GUIDANCE OVER THE SNOW
PACKED AREAS. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

...DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK...

DRY WEATHER WITH AN EXPECTED WARMING TREND TO AROUND MID NOVEMBER
AVERAGES REMAINS IN THE OFFING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO
WARMER WESTERLY FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN AND HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE THE MOST SNOW ON THE GROUND
AT THIS TIME. INDUCED LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD KEEP LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT FLATTENS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MINOR WAVE TRANSLATES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.

CURRENT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER STRONG WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. FIRST
SYSTEM BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AT KALS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW



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