Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 130518

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1118 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017

An upper level ridge will be over the area tonight and into Wed,
but a weak disturbance is forecast to move through the upper ridge
on Wed.  This evening the mountain areas should see scattered
showers/tstms, with isold pcpn being possible elsewhere.  Most if
not all pcpn is expected to end by or around midnight.

On Wed, with that weak disturbance moving acrs the area, there could
be a little better shower/tstm coverage than today, although the far
southeast plains should still be dry through the afternoon.   Highs
on Wed across the southeast plains should be around 10 degrees above
average, and around 5 degrees above average in the high valley

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Little change to the forecast thinking with better agreement among
the ensemble members and operational solutions. Still expecting a
pattern shift mid week with the monsoonal ridge being replaced by
a series of disturbances coming into the western conus.

Wednesday night and Thursday...the upper level ridge that has been
in place across the region is forecast to shift east into the
Missouri Valley through Thursday. Meanwhile, and upper shortwave
trough is forecast to eject out of the Great Basin and across
Colorado through Thursday night. Expect ongoing showers and
thunderstorms across the region Wednesday evening as an embedded
upper disturbance moves across Colorado. Initially over the
mountains, expect this activity to shift eastward across the
Plains through the overnight hours, clearing into Kansas by
Thursday morning. On Thursday, the upper shortwave will eject
across Colorado leading to one last day of widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. Models in good agreement with activity
developing over the mountains by mid morning, and spreading east
into the Plains through the afternoon and evening hours. The
Palmer Divide and Raton Ridge seem the be the more favored areas
for thunderstorms, but the whole I-25 corridor will likely see
some precipitation. This activity will clear northeast through the
late night hours with dry conditions forecast by Friday morning.

Friday through Sunday...persistent upper troughing over the
western states will put southern Colorado under southwest flow
through the weekend. This will bring drier conditions to the area,
with a few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
possible over the mountains each day, but coverage looks to be
rather sparse. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with generally
80s across the Plains. A cold front will drop south across the
Plains by Sunday with a northerly wind shift and the coolest day
of the weekend. Again, not expecting much in the way of
precipitation on Sunday with an isolated mountain shower or
thunderstorm possible.

Monday through Tuesday...the GFS wants to bring the reminents of a
tropical storm out of the East Pacific and across New Mexico into
western Kansas early next week. The ECMWF does not have this
feature and keeps a persistent trough out west. The GFS would
bring better chances for precipitation to the far southeast Plains
early next week, while the ECMWF remains drier under southwest
flow. Ensembles tend to support the ECMWF at this time, so have
kept the forecast fairly dry early next week.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, kpub, kals and kcos. Winds will be light and diurnally
driven. There is a chance of thunderstorms/gusty outflow winds at
each taf site later tomorrow afternoon and early evening,
especially at KCOS. However probability is too low to explicitly
mention in taf fcst attm.




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