Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 010536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016

...STILL SOME CHALLENGES WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK...BUT WIDESPREAD
SNOW STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPPER TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST HAS SPREAD OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...VALLEYS AND I-25
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN UT/NRN AZ LATER TONIGHT...QG ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. THEN SYSTEM TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST CO BY
AFTERNOON.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ECMWF CANADIAN AND NAM12 THE FARTHEST SOUTH...AND
GFS THE FARTHEST NORTH.  SO THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
SNOWFALL FORECAST CHANGES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS THESE DETAILS GET REFINED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SNOW IS ALREADY GOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  MOUNTAIN AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CONTDVD
WILL SEE AN UPSWING IN SNOWFALL TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
AND QG LIFT COMES OVERHEAD.  SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SHOULD FAIR THE
BEST WITH THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND
DYNAMICS. THIS AREA SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 FEET OF SNOW BY
STORMS END. THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE WAVES
OF WAA/OVERRUNNING SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE THE
STEADIER AND HEAVIER SNOW SPREADS IN ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS
UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. EXACTLY WHERE THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP WILL MAKE
OR BREAK THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST.  FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
THE CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH PUTS STORM TOTALS IN THE 6 TO 12 INCH
RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...EXCEPT BACA COUNTY WHERE IT WILL BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE DAY MONDAY.  IF THE
SYSTEM WRAPS UP FARTHER NORTH...THEN LOWER SNOW TOTALS COULD OCCUR
FOR THE WHOLE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...SO FORECAST IS
STILL SOMEWHAT FLUID. HOWEVER GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS...PAST HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT THE WRAP
AROUND SNOWFALL TENDS TO BE UNDERDONE ON THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
RATON RIDGE BY GFS...AND THINK THAT NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
COMPENSATE. THERE WILL BE A SNOWFALL MINIMUM SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...BUT A PERIOD OF INTENSE LIFT...AND THE DURATION OF THE
STORM SHOULD ALLOW THESE AREAS TO STILL ACHIEVE WARNING
CRITERIA...THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY COME UP ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
WARNING NUMBERS. THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AROUND A FOOT OR
MORE WITH PIKES PEAK FARING THE BEST.  THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS ARE STILL A BIT OF A WILD CARD AS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS...MID LEVEL FLOW COULD END UP STAYING
TOO NORTHERLY TO PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT FROM OROGRAPHICS THAT FAR
SOUTH. AGAIN...MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS DETAIL...BUT WITH GFS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE DRIER SOLN...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS FOR
NOW. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016

...HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON TRACK OF THE CURRENT STORM
SYSTEM...WITH THE EC AND CMC STILL KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS A JUST A TAD FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM
WHERE AS THE 12Z GFS IS STILL AN OUTLIER...BEING FASTER AND MUCH
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM.

CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSER TO MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH KEEPS THE TROWAL
AND AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY EVENING
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. THE FASTER AND MORE NORTH GFS SOLUTION WOULD TEND TO
KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AT ANY
RATE...CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...THOUGH NOT READY TO PULL THE TRIGGER AS OF YET.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATING A MINOR WAVE EMBEDDED WITHING THE FLOW
KEEPING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA AND
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NV...BUT THE EXACT PATH OF THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL A QUESTION...WHICH WILL HAVE A HUGE EFFECT ON THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW THE AREA WILL SEE.

KALS...LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM NEARS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 21Z. BY THEN THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE
TRACKING ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE AND TO THE EAST...SWINGING SFC
WINDS AT KALS TO A W THEN NW DIRECTION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AFTERWARD.

KCOS AND KPUB...BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE I25
CORRIDOR...AFFECTING THE TAF SITES OF KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...SNOW
FALL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTN...THEN
AROUND 21Z-22Z AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST THE STRONG NORTHERLY
WRAP-AROUND WINDS WILL THEN SURGE SOUTH. THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF...VISBILITIES WILL LOWER. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
COZ087-088-093-094-097-098.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058>086-089.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ095-096.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE



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