Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241733
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1133 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NWRN TX TODAY AND
TONIGHT...KEEPING MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SWLY ACROSS COLORADO.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH LEADING
EDGE OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY INTO SWRN CO EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NERN CO EARLY TODAY
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH OUT
OF THE STATE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IF ANY
UPSLOPE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS DO DROP SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALL AREAS TODAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AIDING IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT. CAPES STILL NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY...WITH VALUES
STAYING GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/K EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA NEAR THE KS
BORDER WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR IS FORECAST. WITH THE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...EXPECT STORMS TODAY/THIS EVENING TO
BE SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...THOUGH RATHER DRY LAYER
BELOW 10K FEET IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS EXTENSIVE OUTFLOWS
WILL DOMINATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS LOW WITH LIMITED SHEAR/CAPE...THOUGH WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND PUSH INTO KS IN THE EVENING...THOUGH A STORM OR TWO
COULD LINGER ALONG THE KS BORDER PAST 06Z ACCORDING TO LATEST
NAM/GFS. MAX TEMPS TODAY JUST A COUPLE DEGF COOLER MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THOUGH
READINGS DEEP INTO THE 90S STILL LOOK LIKELY ON THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

THE MONSOON WILL CONTINUE TO DICTATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE OVER N TX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...MOVING INTO KO ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN MONSOONAL TAP OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SO...WILL SEE STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENINGS...THEN GRADUALLY QUIETING DOWN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS EACH DAY...GENERALLY E OF I-25 BUT ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
KS BORDER.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN CO ON TUE. THE BEST FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PUSHING INTO ERN CO LATE TUE INTO WED. MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COOLER WX BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WED...WITH TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO REBUILD TO OUR WEST...OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW...SHIFTING US BACK INTO A HOT AND DRY PATTERN
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

OTHER THAN ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AT TIMES...ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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