Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 140551
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1051 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2014

THE 00Z NAM AND GFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A CLOSED LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUN WHICH
CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE EVENING. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CONTDVD SPREADING EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW KEEP SFC-H7 FLOW DUE NORTH WHICH KEEPS
BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND RATON MESA REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING
TROWAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER LATE TIMING OF
COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS LOOKS TO LIMIT SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2014

AN UPR TROF WL MOVE OVR WRN CO TONIGHT...WITH AN UPR LOW EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF OVR NRN NM LATE TONIGHT.  SNOW CHANCES WL INCREASE THIS
EVENING ALONG THE CONTDVD...THEN CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SUN MORNING.  LATE
TONIGHT AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST...SNOW CHANCES WL SPREAD ACRS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND INTO THE ERN MTNS.  ALTHOUGH BY SUN
MORNING...ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVR THE ERN
MTNS.  SUN MORNING...THE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE OVR THE ERN MTNS AND
ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE
NORTHERLY ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR SUN MORNING...WITH
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF NERLY MID LEVEL FLOW EARLY SUN MORNING.
THUS...NOT EXPECTING GOOD UPSLOPE ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE ERN MTNS
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...THERE THE ERN MTNS
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AND WL PUT SEVERAL INCHES IN THE FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR AREAS.  BY LATE MORNING THE UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH PCPN WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPR LOW INTO SERN CO.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WL NOT
BE ALL THAT COLD AND PCPN WL BE MORE RAIN IN THE LATE MORNING WITH
POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES.  DURING THE AFTERNOON THE UPR
LOW CONTINUES ITS EWRD TRACK...AND PCPN WINDS DOWN OVR WRN AREAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...PCPN CONTINUES WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW AND IS
EXPECTED TO COVER THE SERN CO PLAINS.  AGAIN...TEMPS LOOKS FAIRLY
WARM ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL PROBABLY BE DROPPING OFF IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH PCPN BEGINNING TO CHANGE OVR THE SNOW MAINLY
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AS FOR PIKE PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY...SNOW IS EXPECTED ON SUN AS
TEMPS WL BE COLD ENOUGH...BUT ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT.
IN NRN EL PASO COUNTY TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALL
DAY...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.  WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BEING DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR SRN EL PASO COUNTY...PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT BUT WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW AND RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TEMPS.

FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE LEADVILLE AREA SO WL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ZONE 59.
SNOW AMOUNTS ALSO LOOKING LIKE THEY WL BE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE FOR
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS SO WL ISSUE FOR THAT LOCATION AS
WELL...BUT WL NOT START THE ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2014

.SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. TROWAL IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW...WRAPPING SOME PRECIPITATION ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE 12Z NAM HAD A BULLS EYE OF SIGNIFICANT QPF
ON THE EASTERN PLAINS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...BUT NAM HAS A TENDENCY
TO SOMETIMES BE TOO WET. FOLLOWED THE QPF OF THE GFS AND 18Z NAM
WITH QPF OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW DURING THE EVENING ON THE PLAINS.
ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS ON THE PLAINS TO GET A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. WITH THE WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PLAINS.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM MAY PASS
OVER THE REGION IN A COUPLE OF PIECES AND SOME SOLUTIONS TEND TO
SPLIT THE TROUGH INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM. TOUGH TO
GET SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME...AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT
CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD ARE LOW.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND MOVE
EASTWARD. GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE TEND TO HAVE A CUTOFF LOW MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NORTHERN MEXICO BY
SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL EC HAS THE SYSTEM SPLITTING WITH AN OPEN
WAVE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. CURRENT GRIDS ARE MOSTLY DRY...WHICH
MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE TROUGH BEING WELL
WEST OF COLORADO. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2014

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUN WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING
OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS TO ALS THROUGH 16Z SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THERE AFTER. COS
AND PUB WILL SEE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS DEVELOPING AROUND
12Z SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH COS AND PUB THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058>060-066-
068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
COZ072>075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MW


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