Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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943
FXUS65 KPUB 010943
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
343 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...MORE SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MUCH
OF THE PLAINS...AS CLOUDS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THIS MORNING. NW WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE
ALSO KEEPING THE BL ON THE WARM SIDE. WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR THE
PLAINS LOOKS PRETTY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT SO WILL CANCEL THE
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL
CONTINUE THE WARNING FOR NRN EL PASO AS TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S
OVER THE PALMER DVD.

UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN AZ THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EWD TODAY...MOVING THROUGH NRN NM TODAY AND THEN LIFTING
OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION WEAKENS.
CURRENTLY SEEING CLOUD TOPS COOL OVER NRN NM AS THE FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS MOVES NORTHWARD  INTO THE SW MTS. EVEN SEEING A LTG
STRIKE OR TWO OVER NM...AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME ISOLD TS
OVER THE SWRN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCES IN QPF BETWEEN  THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM
A BIT WETTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE BLENDED QPF FROM A NUMBER OF
SOURCES FOR A CONSENSUS PRECIP FORECAST TODAY. THIS GIVES THE SRN
AND SW MTS SNOW TOTALS OF BETWEEN 4-7 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL ISSUE A SN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS WITH THE
MORNING ZONE PACKAGE...RUNNING THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THE SYSTEM WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND ONLY EXPECT LIGHT SN
ACCUMS IF ANY OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVE WILL BE
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. AREAS FARTHER
N...INCLUDING PIKES PEAK AND THE CENTRAL MTS...WILL SEE ONE TO
FOUR INCHES OF SNOW...AND THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS
MORNING.

OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...JUST SOME SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THE SCT
SHSN OVER THE PALMER DVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS
NRLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND EVENTUALLY VEERS TO A MORE ERLY DIRECTION
LATER TODAY. THE UPSLOPE WILL PUT THE FOCUS ON SHOWERS OVR THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7K FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL FALL
BACK TO 5000-6000 FEET TONIGHT. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AS H7 TEMPS START TO
BUILD A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BIT RAW...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING AS N-NE WINDS GUST IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE.
TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE
PLAINS...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW FREEZING DUE TO PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST OR FREEZE HIGHLITES FOR
TONIGHT. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING FROM N TO S BY SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY...

WEAK UPWARD FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON THIS DAY. PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PLAINS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLD
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS ON THE RATON MESA AND PALMER DVD.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S PLAINS AND
VALLEYS AND 40S MTNS.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE S MOVG DISTURBANCE...THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE EC VERIFIES.

TUESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MTNS ON THIS DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY MTN SHOWERS WITH ONLY ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY S OF HIGHWAY 50. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
60S MOST OF PLAINS WITH 50S VALLEYS...40S MTNS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THESE DAYS.
REGION WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S MOST OF PLAINS
WITH AN 80 OR TWO POSSIBLE.60S AND 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS A LARGE PACIFIC CLOSED
LOW MOVES ONSHORE. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST AS THE EC MOVES IT ONSHORE AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AND LIFT IT NORTH OF THE STATE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS GENERALLY KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER THE SW
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWER/TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TRRN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO L80S PLAINS
WITH 60S HIGHER TERRAIN. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT
AT THE TAF SITES. AT KALS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SN THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLE. WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT.

AT KPUB...SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER THIS EVENING AND COULD
BECOME IFR TONIGHT...WITH SCT SHOWERS OR DZ...UNTIL CLEARING MONDAY
MORNING.

AT KCOS...INCREASING NRLY WINDS SHOULD HELP CUT DOWN PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL STILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR RA/SN...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...AS SNOW LEVELS FALL FROM AROUND 6500-7000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5500 FEET TONIGHT. ANY ACCUMS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE
UNTIL MON MORNING.

WINDS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS FROM 25-35 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN AND VEER
TO THE EAST LATER TODAY. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ066-
068-073-075-080.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



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