Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KPUB 030537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AS YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH REGION RADARS STILL INDICATING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...NORTH TO NORTHWEST INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AS A MINOR EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...SHOULD SEE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...DIMINISHING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WITH THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR AREAS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY AND BE GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PEAKS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD WITH THE INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER...WENT AT AND BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOW
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  NEXT SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY.  THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH EC AND CANADIAN
SUGGEST THIS...WHILE NAM AND GFS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. EVEN THE
STRONGER SOLUTIONS HOWEVER DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH
SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SO WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GRIDS FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
TRANSLATES ACROSS...THEN ANOTHER TROF GLANCES BY WELL TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT SENDING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS TO INTRUDE INTO EASTERN CO. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH GFS THE COLDER OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...SPREADING SOME SNOW INTO THE PLAINS AS WELL. EC KEEPS
BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR OFF TO THE EAST. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES...WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND FOR NOW..
-KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

VFR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AT KCOS AND
KPUB...WITH MID-LEVEL VFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL 18Z. AT KALS...PESKY
INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD...THOUGH SATELLITE LOOP
SUGGESTS BACK EDGE OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS IS NEARLY EAST OF THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AS OF 0530Z. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHSN
AND MVFR CIGS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS...THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY WED MORNING WITH VFR CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.