Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1139 AM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 429 AM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017


Atmosphere has moistened up as predicted as a good part of the
plains is overcast with fog and drizzle. At 4 am a weak sfc low was
located vicinity SW KLHX. Areas NW-N thru E and SE of this location
were cloudy while areas SW-S were clear. Except for some thin
cirrus, the remainder of the high country was clear with very dry
air at mtn top level (dwpts in the single digits).

Today and Tonight...

Low clouds, with areas of fog and drizzle will continue over the a
good part of the plains until about mid morning with the cloudiness
decreasing thereafter.

Weak disturbance will move across the region in the modest mid lvl
westerly flow which is over the region. A N-S dryline is expected to
develop across the plains and move slowly east this afternoon, being
located vicinity of the longitude of KLHX at 00Z this evening.
Convergence may be enough to allow for isold thunderstorms, some
marginally severe, to develop along the boundary and move east. High
res models have been inconsistent in indicating this, as some runs
show isold convection while other runs do not (this likely due to
the strength of the capping inversion). Svr Wx parameters from the
guidance are not too shabby, showing sufficient CAPE and Shear for
rotating convection. A modest dry line bulge was indicated vicinity
of La Junta late this afternoon, so this would indicate the best
potential for initiation. SPC has parts of the plains in Marginal
Risk later this afternoon. For now have isold convection in the
forecast for this afternoon and will mention some severe storms
possible in the HWO product.


Isold convection will be possible on the plains until late this
evening with the activity moving into KS. Drier air will move into
the region and do not expect any low clouds on the plains tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 429 AM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday...West to southwest flow will be in place
across the Four Corners region and Colorado through Wednesday,
producing a couple more very warm days for the forecast area.
Conditions are expected to remain dry through Tue, then on Wed a
disturbance to the north will bring isolated showers to the central
mts, as well as tightening the pressure gradient and producing
stronger winds across the forecast area. The stronger winds,
combined with warm conditions, are forecast to produce near-critical
fire weather conditions for portions of the area Wed aftn and early
eve. Look for high temps in the 70s and 80s on Tue, then the 60s and
70s on Wed with max temps right around 80F for the eastern plains.

Thursday through Saturday...Long range models indicate that an upper
low pressure system drops down out of the Pacific NW Thu, crosses Wy
and CO Fri, then finally exits to the east across KS on Sat. A cold
front dropping south across the e plains late Wed night will usher
in cooler air for Thu, then as the sfc flow becomes more easterly
llvl moisture will start to dam up against the southern Front Range.
Convection will likely fire across the mts and along the I-25
corridor Thu aftn and eve. On Fri the upper low will cross overhead,
and exact location and amounts of pcpn is still in question, though
confidence is somewhat high that much of the forecast area will
receive moisture Thu night through Fri night. Activity will then
start to taper off from west to east on Sat as the upper low pulls
off to the east, though wrap-around flow should produce brisk
northerly winds for the eastern plains, as well as cooler temps.
Look for high temps in the 60s on Thu, then in the 50s to around 60F
for both Fri and Sat.

Sunday...Temporary ridging moves in on Sun as the upper low
continues out of the region. Look for dry conditions and temps
warming back up into the 0s to lower 70s. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Potential for some strong to severe convection over the far
southeast Colorado plains this afternoon, generally initiating
around 20Z and ending by around 03Z. The primary areas of impact
would be the plains east of Highway 350 and south of Highway 50
although areas farther to the west and north will also see some
threat. Main concerns are hail and wind but also a small threat of
tornadoes. Areas of MVFR to LIFR flight conditions will be
encountered when attempting to navigate convection.

Tonight, areas of low clouds and fog will likely develop over
parts of the plains again. Moisture may not make it all the way
to KCOS this time. KPUB will be on the edge. Guidance indicates
winds will stay westerly at the terminal which should preclude low
cloud/fog development but relative humidity progs show the
moisture reaching the terminal. May have to throw a late night low
cloud deck in the forecast for KPUB at some point. KALS should
stay clear of any low clouds. Any low clouds that move in overnight
should dissipate 15-16Z at which time conditions will return to
VFR across the entire flight area through the end of the forecast
period (18Z).




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