Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KPUB 161738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRES TROUGH WAS MOVING
ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WAS PUMPING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND 4 CORNERS
REGION...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE W. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHILE THE APPROACHING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. HEALTHY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BRINGING ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED POPS TO THE CONTDVD. NEW SNOW AMOUNTS BY LATE TONIGHT MAY
ADD UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE SW MTS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MT AREAS RECEIVING UP TO AN INCH. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING W-SW
ALOFT WILL DO BATTLE WITH LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
40S...WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD AREA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...30S TO AROUND 40F ARE
FORECAST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...TEENS TO LOWER
20S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NAM12 FOR
THURSDAY. BROAD UPPER TROF WILL DROP THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF
COMES ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE SNOW ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE ATMOS WILL ALREADY BE SATURATED.
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE AFTERNOON...AND QPF AND SNOW ACCUMS
FROM THE NAM LOOK VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. WITH MAJORITY OF THE
FORCING STILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST...THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...THOUGH CERTAINLY CAN RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. FOR THE SE
PLAINS...WILL SEE GRADUALLY THICKENING CLOUD COVER...BUT IT WILL
TAKE TIME FOR LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP. AS EVENING APPROACHES
AND A SECOND WAVE EJECTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CO/NRN NM...WE SHOULD
FINALLY SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING AND WAA/OVERRUNNING TO SPREAD
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH
ACCUMULATION. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS BUT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE 2-4 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPPER TROF DRAGS ACROSS CO THURS/THURSDAY NIGHT.  STILL LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE CONTDVD...THOUGH FOCUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SW MTS INTO THE CENTRAL MTS AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR FOR
THURS/THURSDAY EVENING...WITH NAM12 MUCH HEAVIER WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUN.
THIS IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE
NAM WHICH RESULTED A PERIOD OF LIGHT NE UPSLOPE FLOW AT H7. SINCE
ITS THE OUTLIER...GENERALLY WENT CLOSER TO AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE MTNS AND
PLAINS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST WITH A
COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. EVENT SHOULD
WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND 4-8 INCHES ALONG THE CONTDVD.  THIS IS GETTING CLOSE TO A LOW
END ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 2-4 INCHES EVERY 12
HOUR PERIOD...NOT SURE THE IMPACT WILL JUSTIFY A HEADLINE JUST YET.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS...GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS ABOVE 10KFT. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER TROF IS ADVERTISED
BY GFS TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM VARIES SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO
RUN...WITH 06Z RUN OF THE GFS STRONGER THAN THE 00Z RUN. ECMWF IS
MUCH DRIER WITH A WEAKER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROF MOVING ACROSS.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE...AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE INTERMITTENT IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.