Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1108 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 436 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Primary near/short range meteorological challenges include
temperatures and locally gusty winds at times. Forecast district
currently experiencing continued above seasonal early morning, late
October temperatures in combination with generally clear skies.

Latest PV analysis, real-time data, computer simulations and
forecast model soundings indicate that upper ridging will build into
the forecast district during the next 24 hours; allowing dry
conditions and above seasonal temperatures to continue into tonight
in combination with some localized gusty winds at times.

Even though maximum temperatures today are projected to run some 2F
to 12F cooler than values noted yesterday across the forecast
district, these values will still be running some 10F to 15F above
late October seasonal averages for southern Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 436 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

With an upr level ridge being ovr the area on Thu, the weather will
be dry acrs southeast and south central CO and temps will again be
above average.  On Fri, an upr level disturbance wl move into the
Great Basin, and then acrs WY and CO Fri night and early Sat.  This
system is expected to bring some isold to sct pcpn mainly to the
Continental Divide, with the central CO mtns seeing the best

Late Sat the upr ridge builds ovr the area again, but by late Sun
another upr trof moves ovr the western states.  The ECMWF keeps
southeast and south central CO dry thru Sun night, but the GFS shows
some pcpn moving into the Continental Dvd by Mon morning.  Mon an
upr disturbance moves acrs the nrn Rockies and into the nrn plains
states, with westerly flow aloft ovr CO and chances for pcpn along
the Continental Dvd thru the first half of Mon. Mon afternoon, most
chances for pcpn wl end and a front wl move thru the southeast CO
plains.  Early in the day Mon there could be areas of gusty westerly
winds, but in the afternoon ovr the southeast plains, behind the
front the winds wl become easterly.

On Tue, southwest flow aloft is expected ovr CO as a new upper level
trof moves over the west coast.  There may be enough mstr in the
flow for some light pcpn ovr the Continental Dvd late in the day.

High temps are expected to be above average thru Mon, and may cool
down closer to average readings for Tue.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with light winds and a
few passing high cirrus.  Mozley




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