Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
345 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

...Showers spreading into the mountains tonight...

Upper ridge axis will shift eastward today putting CO under
southwest flow aloft and eventually under the trajectory of
shortwave energy which gets picked up ahead of the west coast upper
low and advected across CO later tonight.  Latest model runs are a
little delayed in spreading precipitation into the mountains along
the Continental have trended pops downward for the
afternoon hours.  Think most of southern CO will stay dry today.
Increasing high cloudiness will help moderate temperatures
some...but with warming aloft...temperatures today should still end
up a few degrees warmer than yesterday.

As the upper level energy moves across CO tonight...should see
showers increase along the Continental Divide towards
midnight...with isolated showers spreading eastward into the
southeast mountains towards sunrise. Winds will also increase across
the higher elevations ahead of the system...and with lee troffing
should see enhanced westerly drainage flow develop after midnight.
This in combination with more cloud cover should keep min
temperatures on the warm side for the eastern mountains/I-25
corridor.  Best chance for measure precipitation will stay along the
Continental Divide overnight where 1-3 inches of snow accumulation
across the higher peaks will be possible.  A few light showers will
be possible towards dawn across the southeast mountains...but for
now any precip accumulations through 12z look spotty and light.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Not many adjustments required from earlier meteorological
reasoning with main longer term meteorological issues being
temperatures...gusty winds and pops at times.

Latest longer range computer simulations...forecast model soundings
and PV analysis suggest that a continued warm and relatively dry
southwesterly to zonal upper flow pattern will continue over the
forecast district into the weekend with primary upper disturbances
impacting portions of the CWFA Tuesday and then again possibly
Friday night.

Additional higher terrain snow amounts of an inch or two will be
possible Tuesday with next potential round of basically light
precipitation over sections of the forecast district anticipated
Friday night. Outside of these time-frames...generally dry and
warm conditions should be noted over the forecast district into
the weekend.

Maximum and minimum temperatures are still projected to run
above climatological averages over the majority of the forecast
district into the weekend with warmest conditions expected
Tuesday...Thursday and Friday(with maximum temperatures running
some 15F to 20+F above late October climatological averages at
times...especially over eastern sections). In addition...the
highest potential for gusty winds are anticipated Tuesday morning
and then again Wednesday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Increasing high cloudiness expected today as the system advances
through the western U.S.  Should start to see IFR CIGS spread into
the Continental Divide around 03z...with LIFR CIGS/IFR VIS in
-SHRASN across the higher mountains after 06z.  For the TAF sites
conditions will remain VFR with winds under 15 kts.  CIGS will start
to lower after 06z at all three TAF sites but will remain VFR.  An
isolated shower will be possible at KALS towards 09Z.  -KT





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