Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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917
FXUS65 KPUB 152209
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
309 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

Dry weather will continue tonight across southeast and south central
CO.  Westerly winds in areas near the mountains tonight, should keep
temps in these areas relatively mild.  Other areas will probably see
temps near or slightly above average.

Saturday in the late morning and through the afternoon hours, a
front will move southward through southeast CO.  This will bring
north to northeast winds that will be gusty in some areas,
especially the far eastern locations.  An upper trof will move into
the Great Basin Saturday afternoon. This will cause the flow aloft
to change from westerly to southwesterly and it will increase. The
weather over the forecast area will still be dry and temps will once
again be above average.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

Models and ensembles are in decent agreement through the extended
period with differences in the finer details.

Saturday night and Sunday...an upper level low is forecast to
continue dropping south out of Arizona into northern Mexico before
ejecting northeast across Texas. The latest model runs continue
dry out much of southern Colorado given the southern storm track.
A strong cold front will arrive early Saturday night with much
colder air moving into the region for Sunday. As far as
precipitation is concerned, a few snow showers will be possible
over the mountains, primarily the Continental Divide. An inch or
two of snow may be possible on the higher peaks through Sunday.
The NAM solution, which has been had more snow, has fallen into
line with the nearly dry GFS and ECMWF, so confidence in a drier
forecast is continuing to increase. Across the Plains, there may
be some drizzle or freezing drizzle along and west of the I-25
corridor and over the Palmer Divide, but with the drier solutions
coming in, confidence is on the lower side for this to occur.
Temperatures on Sunday will be much colder, with generally 30s
across the region.

Monday through Wednesday...broad upper ridging will shift east
across Colorado through the early part of the week. Expect dry
conditions across the region through this period. Temperatures
will slowly warm Monday through Wednesday, with 50s on Monday,
warming into the 60s by Wednesday.

Thursday into Friday...the next upper level storm system is
forecast to drop south out of the Pacific northwest by the end of
the week. Cold air will drop south with a cold front on Thursday
with temperatures in the 30s behind the front Thursday into Friday
for highs. Models are indicating the potential for widespread snow
across the region. Much will depend on the exact storm track as
the upper system drops south. Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 254 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Light winds are expected at KALS.  Winds at KCOS will be southerly
early this evening and will then become northerly until the front
comes thru late Saturday morning and then the winds in the afternoon
will be northeast to east.  Winds at KPUB are expected to be
westerly and under 10 kts thru Sat morning, and then once a front
comes thru the area Sat, the winds will become northeast to east and
should be 12 kts or less.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28



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