Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 031737
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

PERUSING THE DATA SHOWS THAT THE REAL "SNOW SHOW" WILL ARRIVE
AROUND THE 3-4 AM TIME FRAME LATE TONIGHT AS A 2NDRY SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR PLOWS INTO THE REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH WIND FOR
BLOWING SNOW. NICE DENDRITIC GROWTH PROFILE SHOWN IN SOUNDINGS. RUSH
HOUR TOMORROW MORNING IS GOING TO BE A TOUGH ONE. I WILL BE
WORKING ON ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HILITES FOR THE PLAINS/ADJ S
MTNS AFTER I SEND THIS AFD. /HODANISH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE...N EL PASO
COUNTY...AND TELLER COUNTY...BEGINNING AROUND 3 PM. I DO NOT
EXPECT ALL THAT MUCH SNOW DURING RUSH HOUR BUT ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FALL WILL LIKELY FREEZE UP DUE TO THE ARCTIC AIR COMING
IN...AND THIS WILL MAKE A MESS OF THE ROADWAYS. THE HEAVIER SNOW
WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING. RUSH HOUR TOMORROW IS GOING TO BE A
MESS DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR...SNOW PACKED ROADS AND POSSIBLY
BLOWING SNOW AS THE 2ND STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.

I WILL ALSO BE ISSUING ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR REGION LATER THIS MORNING.

I ALSO REPLACED THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE SAN JUANS WITH A
WINTER STORM WARNING AS THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE SW MTNS
AS THE STRONG JET HAS MOVED EAST. /HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE AND A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO MIX DOWN THE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AT THIS TIME WITH THE COLDEST AIR...
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY MODERATING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY...AS JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL ONGOING ACROSS THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST
WINDS (GUSTING TO OVER 50KTS AT WOLF CREEK PASS OVERNIGHT) WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS IN
TACT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...MAY NEED TO END BLIZZARD WARNING ACROSS THE
SAN JUAN MTS AND REPLACE WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING...THOUGH WITH
CPW STILL GUSTING TO OVER 40 KTS...WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH THE LATEST HI RES MODELS HAVE LEADING EDGE OF COOL AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 9AM-10AM WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS
THE HIGH 50 CORRIDOR BY NOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. FRONT TO BE MARKED INITIALLY WITH
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH STRATUS SLOWLY FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SENDS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTS...UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH CONTINUES  TO SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE UVV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH
PROFILES...MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AND ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLUFFY LIGHT
SNOWFALL STACKING UP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MODELS ALL JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER ENDING SNOWFALL WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW
MAY OCCUR IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME PERIOD. INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
WED MORNING...AND SLOWED THE END OF SNOWFALL DOWN BY A FEW HOURS
IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL (3-6 INCHES) EAST OF I-25 BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE LESSER AMOUNTS...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW.
SNOW SHOULD END ALL AREAS BY EARLY WED EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS. MAX TEMPS WED LOOK VERY COLD...WITH
TEENS AND 20S MOST AREAS. MINS WED NIGHT LOOK FAIRLY COLD AS WELL
DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER...THOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT BECOMES LIGHT
WESTERLY AND FAIRLY PRONOUNCED 700 MB WARMING DEVELOPS BY 12Z
THU...WHICH MAY KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW 0F MOST
LOCATIONS.

ON THU...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST WHILE WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
DOUBT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO MUCH MORE THAN INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE FLURRIES ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS. SURFACE GRADIENT LOOKS RATHER FLAT THU AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...WINDIEST/WARMEST SPOTS LIKELY NEAR THE KS BORDER
ACROSS BACA COUNTY WHERE HIGHS MAY TOUCH 40F.

UPPER RIDGE THEN REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST FROM FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE BUILDING SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
MODERATE NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. MAY SEE A FEW RATHER
DIFFUSE WAVES DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR PRECIP LOOK VERY
WEAK...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF ALL BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
ZONES. WARM-UP WILL CONTINUE AT A MODERATE PACE...WITH MAXES
CLIMBING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

KCOS...LOW CIGS HAVE MOVED AND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE KCOS AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24H. STEADIER SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE 2NDRY ARCTIC SURGE THAT COMES IN
AROUND 3 AM BRINGING HEAVIER SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO KCOS. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KPUB...EXPECT LOWER MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KPUB BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. MAJOR CONCERN
WILL BE 2NDRY ARCTIC SURGE THAT COMES IN AROUND 4 AM BRINGING
HEAVIER SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO KPUB. IFR CIGS LIKELY BY THIS
EVENING.

KALS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN WE MAY SEE MVFR DUE TO
CIGS/PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ081-082-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ059-
064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-
060-061-066>068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH


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