Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 022144 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
344 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AND BREEZY ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY...

RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVEN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. NOT A LOT OF CAPE OR SHEAR...THOUGH...SO
STORMS DON`T LOOK TOO STRONG. PRIMARY STORM THREATS LOOK LIKE
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAUSING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES DROPPING THROUGH
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIP THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS WAVE HAS LOOKED WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN.  DON`T EXPECT A WHOLE LOT FROM IT.
HOWEVER...IT MAY PRODUCE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.  ALSO...IT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...KICKING UP THE NORTHERLY WINDS.  THE WINDS
SHOULD HIT EL PASO COUNTY FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN
PROGRESS RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS.  WINDS DON`T
LOOK TOO TERRIBLY STRONG...BUT PROBABLY GUSTING FROM THE NORTH AT 15
TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM 10 DEGREES OR SO FROM TODAY`S READINGS...
FINALLY NEARING AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER AND
A LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A
SPOTTY SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...50S AND 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE 30S AND 40S AT THE PEAKS.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALOFT AS EASTERN
PACIFIC ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF UPPER LOW CARVING OUT
ACROSS THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO INDICATING SEVERAL WAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES. AT ANY
RATE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE SOME STORMS COULD BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE WITH A DRY LINE LURKING AROUND THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SOME COOLING
ALOFT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...FOUR CORNERS UPPER LOW PROGGED TO EJECT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON LOCATION. THE EC IS
SLOWER AND REMAINS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM AND PRINTS OUT
MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AS COMPARED TO THE GFS...WHICH
KEEPS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. AT ANY
RATE...SHOULD SEE TEMPS COOLING BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES IN
THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

MUCH DRIER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FLIGHT AREA. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED
THROUGH SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND CLIP THE
EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY
DRY. IT MAY PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED AND BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS IT TRACKS SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ITS GREATER IMPACT MAY BE TO KICK UP THE NORTH WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT PUSHES A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

VFR EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. KCOS AND KPUB WILL
SEE NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH PICK UP 10Z-14Z TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW



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