Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270502
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1002 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE VERIFICATION OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE HIGHS
TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR WED ALONG WITH WIND AND
SKY FORECASTS...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY
ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AS THE
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL FORECAST INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR KCOS
AND 50S FOR KPUB...OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MOS
FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN WAS 10-15 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THE WED
HIGHS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE SFC WINDS...IF THEY STAY LIGHT AND FROM THE S-SE THAN WE
WILL NOT MIX AND WILL END UP ON THE COOL SIDE. THE GFS PROGS MORE
WRLY FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS...AND SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NMM HINT AT THIS AS WELL. KPUB
CERTAINLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING THAN KCOS...WHERE THE
MORNING WAVE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL KEEP KCOS FROM REACHING ITS POTENTIAL. A BLANKET
REDUCTION OF 5-7 DEGREES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME MDT TB DUE TO MTN
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES
AND RAMPART RANGE. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE



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