Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 081736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1036 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Issued at 1033 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Surface observation trends combined with persistent high res
model runs continue to highlight portions of the Palmer Divide and
the Raton Ridge for high winds today. Given latest observations,
will hoist a high wind warning for El Paso and eastern Las Animas
counties. Strongest wind gusts should be to the east of Colorado
Springs. Elsewhere across the plains...wind gusts may get close to
high wind criteria, but for the time being look like they will
stay more in the 50 to 55 mph. This will pose a risk to high
profile vehicles traveling on east-west oriented roadways.

These strong winds will also result in critical fire weather
conditions across all of the southeast plains today. Current Red
Flag Warning still looks on target. -KT


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Primary near/short term meteorological issues over the forecast
district include pops ending this morning, winds, critical
fire weather issues and temperatures.

Many locations across the forecast district early this morning are
experiencing above seasonal temperatures, thanks to gusty winds and
cloud cover. Some recent higher reported wind gusts early this
morning include 47 mph at the Buena Vista airport and 46 mph wind
gusts near Truckton and Colorado Springs respectively.

In addition, recent radar returns and real-time data indicate light
precipitation over primarily far southern sections of the forecast
district early this morning.

Latest computer simulations, forecast model soundings and real-time
data suggest that light precipitation will be decreasing/ending by
mid-morning.  Gusty winds are anticipated today and when combined
with projected low relative humidity values and existing dry fuels
over many locations will maintain existing Red Flag Warning over
eastern locations from later this morning into this afternoon.

Regarding temperatures, project that maximum temperatures this
afternoon over eastern locations will run some 15F to 20F degrees
warmer than readings noted yesterday, while western sections should
experience afternoon temperatures generally some 8F to 16F degrees

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Overall, not much change in the large scale pattern in the long
term. A dominant ridge will remain along the west coast of the CONUS
while a trough will be over the midwest. Although this pattern will
persist, it will gradually become less amplified with time. As for
sensible weather aspects, it will remain dry with temperatures
running 10 to 15F above normal throughout the entire period. A
modest short wave is forecast to move through the ridge around
midweek (GFS and EC show this although there are timing differences)
and this will cool temps during this time period, and may bring a
snow shower or two to the high country.

In a nutshell, unseasonably warm and unseasonably dry through this
period. /Hodanish


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1033 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Main near-term weather impact on aviation will be gusty winds from
the north at all three TAF sites (ALS, COS, PUB). Sustained winds of
20-30 knots will gust to 30-40 knots early this afternoon at COS and
PUB, with slightly weaker winds expected at ALS. Wind speeds will
come down fairly quickly during the late afternoon. By 6 PM, wind
speeds will be less than 10 knots at all three sites with limited/no
gusts, staying light through Saturday morning. Lingering mid/high
clouds will clear out during the afternoon/early evening as high
pressure and a dry airmass build over the region.

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites for the next 24


Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ226>237.

High Wind Warning until 4 PM MST this afternoon for COZ084-085-



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