Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 272056
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
256 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ACRS THE
SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR.  SPC SEVERE
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY SHOWS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OVR ALL BUT THE I-
25 CORRIDOR. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVR THE SERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT AN UPR LOW AND TROF ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM ID AND
SOUTHWARD OVR THE GREAT BASIN.  OVR CO...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED.   AFTER ISOLD TO SCT EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN END OVR THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE NIGHT.

THAT UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON THU...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTING EASTWARD ACRS CO DURING THE DAY.  SHOULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS AREAS BY LATE MORNING
AND THEN THE COVERAGE WL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WL SPREAD
EASTWARD.  A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED OVR THE FAR SERN CO PLAINS ON THU
WITH THE NAM FORECASTING 2000+ J/KG OF CAPE...BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK. A COUPLE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT AND ONLY MODEST ENSEMBLE SPREADS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. EXPECT ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...EAST INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FURTHER RUNOFF COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
WITH AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL...AND RIVER FLOODING WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL BRING DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE...WHICH MAY HELP KEEP THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ON THE LOWER SIDE. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DRYLINE DEVELOPING OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
EACH AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
CAPPED CONDITIONS WITH A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH 70S TO MID
80S ACROSS THE REGION FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 12 KFT. LIGHT SNOWFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS ELEVATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES
THRU THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28


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