Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 230545

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1045 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Issued at 644 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Have issued a winter weather advisory for the San Juans from
tonight into Sat morning. Heaviest snow will fall mainly tomorrow.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

An upper level weather system continue to produce generally spotty
snow showers in and near the eastern mtns, with more widespread
light snow along the Continental Divide.  Some of this will continue
into the evening hours.  Later this evening, most of the snow should
end, but it looks like isold to scattered snow showers will probably
continue along portions of the Continental Divide tonight, with just
some light accumulations.  Will cancel the Winter Wx Advisory for
the San Juan Mtns with the issuance of the forecast package this
afternoon.  Late tonight, it looks like we may again see some low
clouds move into portions of the southeast plains, mainly north of
Highway 50.

On Friday, a new upper level trof will move into UT. Ahead of this
system, snow chance are expected to increase along the Continental
Divide late in the day. Otherwise, just some isold to scattered snow
showers are expected along the Continental Divide in the morning and
early afternoon hours, with dry weather elsewhere.  Toward evening,
a few snow showers could develop over the higher peaks of the
eastern CO mtns.  Once again, the temp forecast for the area on Fri
will be challenging, and model guidance is of little help with
rather large differences between the models.  With mostly breezy
easterly sfc wind expected, will lean a little more toward the
cooler guidance values, but won`t go quite that cool.  The San Luis
Valley will probably see areas of gusty southwest winds again,
mostly during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

An active weather pattern will prevail across the region for the
next several days. Ensemble spreads become modest over the next
several days with somewhat less towards the extended.

Friday night through Sunday...a pair of upper level disturbances
will be working their way across the region through the weekend.
The first, will be making its way across Colorado on Friday night
with mountain snow, spreading east across the Palmer Divide. For
the most part, they heaviest snow looks to remain confined to the
mountains. As for the Plains, only light snow will remain likely,
especially for areas over the Palmer Divide. The next in the
series of upper level disturbances will move across the area on
Sunday, clearing the region by Sunday night. This system looks to
remain over the Continental Divide, with very little system
feedback into the Eastern Mountains. Temperatures over the weekend
will remain the 30s to 40s across the region.

Monday into Tuesday...we will get a short break in the weather
with broad flat flow moving across the region. Temperatures will
warm into the 40s to 50s both days. We should remain dry both days
as well, high pressure moves across the region.

Wednesday through Thursday...the next several days of the long
term indicates the next system moving across the area. Snow is
expected along the Continental Divide by Wednesday and continue
into the day on Thursday. The one uncertainty, is how far east
things will move during the period. Current solutions have
everything remaining out west, with very little spreading into the
Eastern Mountains. Slight changes in the storm track could mean
more snow across the area. Temperatures currently look to remain
in the 40s to 50s, but this could all change by the time Wednesday
into Thursday come around.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1038 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Main concern this forecast period will be low cigs/fog at KCOS and
KPUB later tonight and tomorrow night.


Guidance is hinting at low cigs/fog later tonight/tomorrow
morning. Moisture is rather shallow so I am not highly confident
that cigs/fog will develop but confident enough to include it in
TAF fcst. By mid to late morning skies should clear. By later
tomorrow evening low clouds should once again move into the KCOS
area. Confidence is rather high that this will happen.


Low clouds/fog should develop in the next 1-3 hours at KPUB and
last into mid morning. Skies are expected to clear with low clouds
moving in once again tomorrow evening.


VFR expected next 24 hours. Gusty SW winds will once again
redevelop tomorrow afternoon.


Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Saturday for COZ068.



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