Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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045
FXUS65 KPUB 031810
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

UPDATED FORECAST PRIMARILY TO ADJUST POPS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL HIGH
RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...4KM NAM...AND WRF...SHOW SOME
ISOLD SHSN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SE PLAINS. SO...HAVE
EXPANDED LOW POPS A BIT TO INCLUDE BACA COUNTY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS. WILL ALSO SEE ISOLD SHSN OVER THE HYR TRRN. ALL ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE OFF THIS EVENING. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

CURRENTLY...LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED OVER THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES ARE COLD WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
IMPACTED THE REGION ON MONDAY CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS DISTURBANCES DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA.  THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...SO SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR
TWO ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHWEST FACING PEAKS.  EXPECT SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.  LIGHT WINDS
AND SNOWFALL ON THE GROUND WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL TO NEAR
ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT.  WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT BUT WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL RUN IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...COLD TO CONTINUE...

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SCATTERED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND POSSIBLY THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK.  AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
GET BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS THIS DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THAT RIDGE.  THIS WILL MAKE EASTERN COLORADO VULNERABLE TO
ANY COLD AIR MASSES BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS. RIGHT NOW...THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLD
AIR AND ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL THAT MAY ACCOMPANY IT EAST OF COLORADO.
HOWEVER...SOME RUNS HAVE DRIVEN THE AIR MORE DIRECTLY SOUTH INTO
COLORADO.  IT MAY TURN OUT THAT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GET CLIPPED
BY SOME SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE PLAINS FARTHER WEST...UP
AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS...SEE JUST A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING. JUST HAVE
TO KEEP WATCHING IT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

AT KPUB AND KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT KALS...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT
SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE FG/BR DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOSLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE



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