Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241820
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1220 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 458 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Early this morning Goes-16 fog product shows overcast conditions
across the plains, with clouds snaking all the way up the Arkansas
Valley to Buena Vista and Leadville as of 10z. Pikes Peak and the
crest of the Wet Mountains stand out above the cloud layer, with
clouds banked up against the east slopes of the Sangres as well. For
today, given low level winds remaining E to SE over the plains and I-
25 corridor, suspect clouds will be slow to clear, though W-NW flow
aloft will begin to erode shallower clouds over the far se plains in
the afternoon. Clouds should mix out fairly quickly over the upper
Arkansas Valley, while western mountains remain clear this morning
before some convective cloudiness develops this afternoon. Still a
big difference in QPF between the GFS and NAM for this afternoon and
evening, as GFS continues to look much wetter across the region
through the period. Overall, forecast splits the difference, with
best chance for convection over the eastern mountain this afternoon
as modest CAPE and upslope winds generate isolated tsra, with a few -
shra/-tsra drifting onto I-25 corridor and plains this evening as
weak instability develops across lower elevations. Both models do
suggest precip may linger through much of the night along the NM
border and across the far sern plains, as low level jet and elevated
instability combine to generate tsra well past midnight. Max temps
today rather tricky given lingering cloud cover, though in general
expect a warmer day area-wide with a few breaks in the overcast by
afternoon, though temps will still be below average by late June
standards.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 458 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Not many adjustments required from previous meteorological
reasoning with primary concerns being unsettled conditions in
combination with below to near seasonal later June temperatures
over the majority of the forecast district from Sunday into
Monday night as passing upper disturbances interact with the
daily heating cycle and adequate atmospheric moisture/surface
boundaries.

WFO Pueblo will need to monitor for the potential of locally
heavy rain as well as strong to potentially severe storms at
times over primarily eastern and southern sections of the
forecast district from Sunday into Monday evening and possibly
Tuesday as localized capes/LI`s and mean layer shear values
challenge 2000 J/kg/-6C and 50+ knots respectively at times.

Then a return to drier and warmer conditions is expected to
develop over the forecast district from Tuesday into at least
Thursday as eastern Colorado lee-side surface troughing dries the
airmass over the majority of the forecast district.

Finally, coolest temperatures during the longer term over the
forecast district should be experienced Sunday while warmest
conditions are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

KALS...VFR conditions expected today and tonight. Isolated -tsra may
develop over the mountains east of the terminal, but are expected to
remain too far east to impact the terminal.

At KCOS and KPUB...expect low VFR cigs to persist through much of
the day into tonight, though a few breaks will be possible around
midday, before cloud thicken up again by late afternoon. Slight
chance of a -shra or weak -tsra late this afternoon and into the
evening as convection comes off the mountains so will carry a
vcsh/vcts mention at both sites from 22z-02z.

Over the mountains, lower slopes of the Sangres/Wets/Pikes Peak will
be obscured until midday, with some brief clearing late morning,
before isolated -tsra develop this afternoon, which will bring back
lower clouds and mountain obscuration into the evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...TM



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