Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 111654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
954 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

...High Fire Danger Today...

Dry northwest flow continues over the forecast area today.  Embedded
in the flow is a shortwave that can be seen in satellite pictures
barreling south through the Dakotas into Nebraska at this hour. This
wave will send a weak front south through the plains during the
afternoon.  Northwest winds ahead of and behind the front will be
strong enough over the far eastern plains to warrant fire weather
concerns.  The winds, in combination with very low humidities and
dry fuels, will take conditions to Red Flag Warning levels across
Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties this afternoon. Outdoor burning or
any other activity that could accidentally start a wildfire should
be postponed today.  Humidities will be low and fuels will be dry
elsewhere, too, but the winds will be less.  So, no fire weather
highlights in other areas today.  Regardless, it is not the best
time to be burning or engaging in any other activity that could
generate a stray spark.  Otherwise, another very mild December day
across southern Colorado with afternoon highs remaining anywhere
from 10 to 20 degrees above average for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

Tuesday-Wednesday...Dry and unseasonably warm conditions continues
Tuesday under generally weak northwesterly flow aloft, as the long
wave upper ridge remains in place across the Great Basin through the
Intermountain West. Increasing flow aloft is expected on Wednesday,
as a short wave embedded within the flow digs down the backside of
the ridge across the Northern Rockies and into the Upper Midwest.
Said wave looks to bring breezy conditions, especially to portions
of the far southeast plains through the late morning and afternoon,
with another day of elevated fire danger and possible critical fire
weather conditions ahead of a weak front.

Wednesday night-Thursday night...Latest models agree on more energy
digging down the backside of the ridge late Wednesday night and
through the day on Thursday, though they continue to differ on how
far west said energy digs. The 00Z runs of the EC and Canadian
models, along with the 06z run of the NAM are further west, with the
system digging across the Northern and Central Rockies. The GFS
remains consistent with its previous runs which is much weaker and
further east with the system, however the several of its ensemble
members are more in line with the other model runs. With that said,
have stayed closer the model consensus for pops, which introduce
slight and to low chance pops for areas over and near the Central
Mountains Wednesday night, with pops spreading south and east to
areas over and near the Eastern Mountains Thursday morning through
the early afternoon. The further west solution brings a stronger
cold front across the Eastern Plains, however the system does not
look particularly cold, with highs still expected to be at to
slightly above seasonal levels. Latest models also indicating more
low level moisture moving across the area Thursday, possibly
precluding critical fire weather conditions across the Eastern

Friday-Sunday...Flat upper ridging rebuilds across the Rockies on
Friday ahead of another short wave translating across the Pacific
Northwest. This will keep dry weather across the area and boost
temperatures back to above seasonal levels on Friday. Said wave then
progged to dig across the Great Basin and across The Central Rockies
on Saturday, before continuing south and east into the Southern High
Plains on Sunday. This will bring chances of precipitation to the
higher terrain, especially along and west of the ContDvd, on
Saturday, with only slight cooling expected across the area through
the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 922 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

A ridge of high pressure remains to the west of the region. The
biggest forecasting challenge is if KCOS will experience
southeasterly winds. Currently the TAFs indicate so, but there is
a chance that prevailing northerlies will surge into COS around
20Z. Keep an eye out for amendments to the TAF. KPUB will likely
see the southeasterly winds transitioning to light and variable
winds later this evening. KALS will experience light and variable
winds. VFR conditions expected at all forecast points throughout
the forecast period.



Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ234-236-



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