Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 210541
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1141 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WITH ANOTHER ONE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CALIF COAST ATTM. WARMING ALOFT AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE KEEPING
LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA
INDICATING INSOLATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERRAIN WEST OF THE
FRONT RANGE IS HELPING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTS.

TONIGHT...TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
WITH THE PASSING GREAT BASIN EMBEDDED WAVE HELPING TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LATEST NAM...GFS AND EC ARE BULLISH WITH BRINGING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE STABLE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE HRRR
AND RAP WHICH KEEPS BEST CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EL
PASO COUNTY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING CLOUDS TO LOWER ACROSS THE
PLAINS AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
WEST COAST SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST. LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWLY
WITH THE SOUTHERN CALIF SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES...WHICH MAY DELAY THE
ONSET...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. AT ANY RATE...WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HINDER MIXING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST US IS FORECAST TO EJECT A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO COLORADO. SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH BRING IN A DEEP
LAYER OF MOISTURE...WHICH WILL BE LIFTED BY THE TERRAIN AND
SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE ANOTHER EPISODE OF WIDESPREAD
MODERATE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND NAM TO
MAINLY OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT...AND QUICKLY
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS MORE HEAVY
HANDED WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THAN
THE NAM ON THE LATEST RUNS. MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH
SATURATED GROUND...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING IS
THERE. RIVERS AND LARGE CREEKS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE MORE EROSION
ISSUES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ABOVE 10 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...SINKING MOTION AND DRYING WILL OCCUR.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY LINE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...WHICH COULD SPARK STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS ABOVE 50 KNOTS
COULD CAUSE SOME STORM ROTATION. ELSEWHERE ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND DISSIPATE FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY...THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH VALLEYS...AND THE DRY LINE IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AGAIN...WITH A RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORM TO THE AREA...LASTING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A MODEST RIDGE MAY BUILD INTO THE
AREA...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE...AND ONLY THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING THURSDAY...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB IN
FOG AND DRIZZLE UNTIL MIDMORNING. CIGS AND VIS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR OR WORSE
ALL DAY. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP AND LAST INTO THE EVENING WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR AGAIN THU EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS.

AT KALS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THU
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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