Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 130010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
510 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

Issued at 510 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

Updated to end winter weather advisory across the central


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018


Front moving across the region at 2 pm this afternoon. Boundary was
just south of the US50 corridor and was continuing southward. A line
of showers was noted over the plains, mainly from near KLIC
southeastward to just north of Holly CO. A few virga/very light rain
showers were noted over a few other areas of the plains. Snow
showers were noted over the mountains, especially the central mtns
and the Pikes Peak region.

Rest of today and into tonight...

The main band of showers over the plains will continue to move
southeast and should be out of the region by sunset. However HRRR
shows some other light showers will be possible over most of the
region until at least late evening. These showers are not expected
to amount to much. Over the central mountains snow showers will last
into early evening before dissipating.

Gusty winds over the plains will decrease after sunset.

Temps tonight will be on the cold side with mainly tens across the
plains, with the coldest air over the far eastern plains and the
warmest temps (aoa 20F) just east of the southern mtns. San Luis
valley will be in the single digits along with most mtn locations.


Temps will be pretty seasonable tomorrow across the region with 40s
across all of the plains, with generally partly to mostly sunny
skies, with a few more clouds over the plains. It will be dry, with
the exception of some snow showers over the northern sections of the
central mtns. Winds will be light an diurnally driven over the
plains with modest winds over the central mtns.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

Saturday night-Sunday...Models remain consistent with keeping
moderate northwest flow aloft across the region, with another
embedded wave translating across the Upper Midwest Saturday night.
This wave looks to be too far east to bring any precipitation,
though the moderate northwest flow develops lee troughing across the
plains, allowing for the the shallow cool airmass across eastern
Colorado to scour out from west to east Saturday night. The shallow
cool airmass mixes out completely across the eastern plains on
Sunday, with highs warming back into the 50s across the lower
elevations, and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

Sunday night-Tuesday...Models are coming into better agreement of a
stronger wave embedded within the northwest flow aloft translating
across the Rockies Sunday night and Monday. Wave sends a strong
backdoor cold front across eastern Colorado late Sunday night,
which backs up across the eastern Mountains through late Monday
morning. Models are indicating some light precipitation spreading
from east to west across the eastern plains, with model soundings
indicating the potential for light freezing drizzle across the
plains early Monday morning, before colder air works into the area
with any freezing precipitation quickly changing to light snow
and flurries Monday mid morning and afternoon. Some light and
fluffy snow accumulations will be possible along and west of the
I-25 corridor through the day Monday. Highs in the 30s early
Monday morning across the plains will cool through the rest of the
morning and afternoon, as easterly upslope flow increases through
the day. Further west, dry weather with at to slightly below
normal temperatures is expected on Monday, though can`t rule out
some light snow and flurries across the Central Mountains, with
the northwest orographic flow.

Northwest flow aloft moderates Monday night and Tuesday, with any
snow/flurries across the mountains diminishing into Monday evening.
With the cold airmass in place, overnight lows to be on the chilly
side, in the single digits and teens areawide. Dry conditions and
moderating temperatures expected for Tuesday.

Wednesday-Friday...Some differences in the longer range models
continue, though EC and GFS generally agree of another embedded wave
digging across the Rockies on Wedensday, though continue to differ
on strength of the system. At any rate, system looks to mainly
affect the higher terrain along and west of the ContDvd, with
blended pops introducing slight chances of snow in the Wednesday and
Wednesday night timeframe, with temperatures at to slightly above
seasonal levels. Warmer and drier conditions expected on Thursday
with short wave ridging across the region, which gives way to
increasing southwest flow aloft across the area on Friday, as
another progressive system takes aim on the Rockies for Friday
and into early next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 307 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. The only exception may be some occnl low
cigs this evening at KCOS and guidance products show some low clouds
developing between ~03 and ~06 UTC. Gusty winds this afternoon will
decrease after sunset. Winds will be light tonight with diurnally
driven light winds tomorrow.




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