Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 122203
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
403 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

A LITTLE PINCHED ON TIME.  STORM ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY FROM LATER SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  RECENT
MODEL TIMINGS ARE A LITTLE LATER WITH THINGS.  IN ANY EVENT...LOTS
OF PRECIPITATION HEADED OUR WAY...EVENTUALLY SNOW ALL AREAS BY
TOMORROW EVENING.  COULD START AS RAIN BRIEFLY AS PRECIP BEGINS
TOMORROW...BUT THEN SHOULD TURN TO SNOW QUICKLY BEHIND FROPA.

EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD DO BEST...WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

BELOW ABOUT 6500 FEET...2 TO 5 INCHES OUGHT TO COVER IT DUE TO
INITIAL WARM GROUND/AIR TEMPS.  FOR LOWER AREAS...THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF FREMONT AS WELL AS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES WILL
PROBABLY ALSO SEE ADVISORY SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON UP NORTH...SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING.

ALSO...UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BASICALLY
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS AS WELL AS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LW

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
FIRST...WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF COLORADO INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LIKELY EARLY IN
THE DAY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH
WILL FILL IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE...WITH SNOWFALL
INTENSITY RAMPING UP AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH...SO HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT
WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER WAVE EJECTING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. ONCE THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS
WESTERLY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER
A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE WARM WITH MOST
AREAS PUSHING 70 DEGREES.

ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
LOOKING TO BE FAVORED. THINGS LOOK DRY FOR THE PLAINS GIVEN A MORE
NORTHERLY STORM TRACK. INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO MIXING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES TO PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING AND
WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM BUT BOTH POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR THE
EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. UPPER RIDING WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON
MONDAY WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS EJECT A DRYLINE EAST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH TRIGGERS CONVECTION. HOW STRONG STORMS BECOME WILL
DEPEND ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN AND DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS IS A LONG WAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND THINGS CAN CHANGE...BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. IN
ADDITION...SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 402 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

STRONG SPRING STORM HEADED TOWARD FLIGHT AREA. WARM SECTOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN...OVERNIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS BY
MORNING.  THE BIG SHOW WITH THIS STORM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS EVERYTHING DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...WIDESPREAD BRIEF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/THEN SNOW WILL SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION...MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ALSO...SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS AS WELL AS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO CLOSE IN ON WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ058>061-063-066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ072-073-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ077-078-083-087.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ088-094-099.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ076-081-082-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ074-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW



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