Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 111618
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1018 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

UPDATED TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPS OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE AREA
TODAY AND WL THUS LIMIT WARMING. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

BROUGHT IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO UPDATED SHORT RANGE SKY
COVER AND WEATHER GRIDS TO INCLUDE MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
REPORTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

...A TOUCH OF FALL ON THE WAY...

MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO FALL WEATHER LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  CURRENTLY...THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT TO
HIT OUR AREA IS KNOCKING AT OUR DOOR...WITH ONE PART OF IT POKING
DOWN THE URBAN CORRIDOR INTO DENVER...AND ANOTHER COMING IN FROM THE
EAST ACROSS KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES...WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED.  THESE LEADING EDGES OF THE FRONT WILL STALL FOR
A WHILE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...BEFORE BLASTING THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION IN FULL FORCE LATE
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO EL PASO COUNTY AFTER 3 PM...WITH THE REST OF THE PLAINS
LIKELY SEEING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY AFTER 6 PM.

THE FRONT WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE REGION.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD...ALONG...AND BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  SHEAR ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE RUNNING 40-60 KNOTS WHICH COULD HELP GENERATE A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HOWEVER...MAXIMUM CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE MODEST...ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND SHORT-LIVED...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.  REGARDLESS...SOME STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WITH THREATS INCLUDING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...HAIL TO NEAR 1
INCH IN DIAMETER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE PLAINS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 15 TO 20 GUSTING TO 30 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN PICK UP FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING THE PLUNGE...FALLING THROUGH
THE 60S...50S...AND 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S T0 LOWER 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.  AS THE
TEMPERATURES FALL...SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DOWN TO THE PALMER
DIVIDE...DOWN TO ABOUT 6500 FEET BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND MAY DROP
AS LOW AS 6000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...MUCH OF THE PIKES PEAK
REGION...ABOVE 6000 OR 6500 FEET...COULD SEE IT`S FIRST FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE THAT COLD AND THE GROUND IS STILL VERY WARM...SO NO BIG
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY WET
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO ON GRASSY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THOSE AREAS HIGHER UP COULD DO A LITTLE BETTER.  WOODLAND PARK MIGHT
SEE 1-2 INCHES AND PIKES PEAK COULD SEE UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES.

ACROSS THE PLAINS...BELOW 6000 FEET...JUST RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS.  WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PERHAPS A SWATH
OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.  THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE SOME LOCAL RUNOFF
PROBLEMS IF THEY OCCUR OVER THE WRONG LOCATION IN TOO SHORT OF TIME.
FARTHER WEST...FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD...AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHTER...WITH WPC GUIDANCE INDICATING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A FEW
HUNDRETHS UP TO ABOUT 0.25 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REACHING THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MORNING.  A FEW SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK
REGION MAY EVEN HIT THE LOWER 30S.  HOWEVER...THINK THE RISK OF A
FROST OR FREEZE IS LOW AT THIS POINT...DUE TO ALL OF THE CLOUDS...
MOISTURE AND WIND THAT WILL BE PRESENT.  SO...NO FROST OR FREEZE
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH CONTINUING TO MONITOR. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

MODELS SHOW THAT BROAD TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS...BUT EASTERN COLORADO STILL UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE EXTENSIVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...CLOUDS THIN SOME IN THE EAST...AND THE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRES.
HIGHS IN THE EAST WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MEANTIME...IT WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD IN THE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. HOWEVER...AT THE 10000 FOOT LEVEL...STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S F BY DAWN. IF ANY OF THE WARMER
AIR CAN BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REACH
FREEZING. ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD BE
MILDER THAN PLACES SUCH AS COLORADO SPRINGS OR PUEBLO.
HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FROST. RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOST OF THE HIGH VALLEYS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOOK TO BE MILD TO WARM DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. ALSO...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS WITH ANY CONVECTION BEING
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
70S AND 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 40S
AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN US BRINGING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SOMETIME ON MONDAY...WITH THE EFFECTS FELT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE EUROPEAN IS A MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
COOL PUSH AND PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS...IT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
SIGNIFICANT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US BUILDS IN LATER
TUESDAY AND IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING MILD TO
WARM MID-SEPTEMBER WEATHER. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 528 AM
MDT THU SEP 11 2014

A BOUT OF STORMY FALL WEATHER TO DEAL WITH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STRONG FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLIGHT AREA
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN SOME WET SNOW TO THE REGION.

THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
ALSO OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED.  THE FRONT WILL LINGER IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING AND
THEN RETREAT SLIGHTLY BEFORE BLASTING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA IN
FULL FORCE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AFTER 3 PM AND THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PLAINS AFTER THAT.

AHEAD...ALONG...AND BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR...IFR
AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ADJACENT
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  FARTHER WEST...ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH UP INTO THOSE AREAS.

PRESENT TIMING PUTS THE FROPA AT KCOS AROUND 22Z AND AT KPUB AROUND
23Z.  NO REAL FROPA AT KALS...BUT A WIND SHIFT THERE...FROM THE
EAST...EXPECTED AROUND 02Z. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM


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