Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
945 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING INCLUDING FOG REFERENCES.
MADE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR TODAY AND UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER
GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...MORE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES
RESULTING IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.  PLUS...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE.  SO...THERE WILL BE A TRIGGER...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
TODAY IS LESS SHEAR.  0-6 KILOMETER BULK VALUES OVER MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY ARE GENERALLY ONLY ABOUT 15-30 KNOTS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 25-35 KNOTS AT 00Z...AND ANYWHERE FROM 40-50 KNOTS
FROM 00Z TO 03Z. SO...OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY.  SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IN THE MARGINAL THREAT AREA.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THESE AREAS WOULD INCLUDE
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT ELSEWHERE TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR VALUES.  HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND FUNNELS...GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND COLD ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY.

A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ALL OF IT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...MAKING ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...SOME INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
CONTINUE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET.  OUR OBSERVER IN
LEADVILLE AT 10000 FEET CALLED IN WITH 3.3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TO MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING.  ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
A FEW INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NE QUAD OF THE STATE
EARLY MON MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TUE AND WED WILL EQUAL WARMER TEMPS...WITH READINGS PUSHING 80F
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THE AREA WILL BE SLIPPING
INTO A MORE DIURNAL MT CONVECTION PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS...AND
ISOLATED AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS. ON THU ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT
TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE UP INTO THE
STATE...AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THU AFTN
AND EVE. TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO
EJECT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH OF COLORADO.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU
NIGHT OR VERY EARLY FRI MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE
DIRECTION...AND LLVL SUPPORT WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE E
PLAINS AND MTS GREATLY FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOOK FOR ABOUT A 10
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PROBABLE SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY ON FRI FINALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SAT. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
FLIGHT AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...FUNNELS...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS MAY ALSO YIELD ISOLATED TORNADOES.  PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
PRIMARILY AS SNOW OR GRAUPEL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000 FEET.
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS EAST
OF I-25 THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.  THIS IS LARGELY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTION.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE 14-16Z...AT WHICH TIME
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LARGELY VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  HOWEVER...
ONCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS GOING AGAIN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR 15-18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...18-21Z OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND 21Z-00Z FARTHER EAST. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...AND THEN BECOME ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES WILL ALL SEE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY.  FOR NOW...HAVE VCTS STARTING IN TERMINAL FORECASTS
GENERALLY 19-20Z.  HOWEVER...UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS SPECIFIC STORM CELLS DEVELOP AND APPROACH.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW


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