Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271810
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1210 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Updated grids to take down the winter weather highlights for this
afternoon. Otherwise expect showers and isolated embedded
thunderstorms to regenerate across the southeast mountains and
plains this afternoon...with greatest coverage across the
mountains and across Kiowa...Bent and Prowers counties. Grids in
pretty good shape so only minor tweaks made.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

...Wrap around precip today with windy conditions on the Plans...

Currently...

Upper low was located over the eastern Plains of CO. A well defined
band of wrap-around precip was occurring...extending from the
CO/NE/WY line s-sw`d down towards KTAD. Moderate rain was embedded
in this ~50 mile wide band of precip. Some embedded IC ltg was
noted...especially down towards Walsenburg at 2 am.

The weather system producing all of this beneficial precip was
located over ec CO Plains.

Today...upper low is fcst to intensify over the CO Plains and
move slowly in a general southerly direction through today. The
500 mb circulations should be located in far wc KS by 00Z this
evening.

Banded precip will continue along the I-25 corridor region until
about 13 utc and then start to move eastward over the Plains. by 15
utc ~50 mile wide band should extend from roughly just west of KITR
s-sw`d  towards Kim. By noon the band will pivot around and extend N-
S across the far eastern counties of se CO. By this
afternoon...precip will become more sctd across the Plains...with
the brunt of the activity over the far eastern counties. Some -tsra
is likely...but it is not expected to be severe.

Over the mtns...best precip chances will be early this
morning...with activity becoming more showery by mid morning.

Winds will become gusty from the north as the day progresses out
over the plains. The strongest winds will likely occur along the
LIC- LHX_Kim corridor. Gusts to 35 mph will be possible.

Max temps today will be cool with highs only in the 50s across lower
elevations of El Paso county...and 60s elsewhere across the Plains.
50s and 60s will occur in the mtns. Lots of clouds are likely today
but we should see some some in most locations.

Since nearly all of the heavier precip will end by later this
morning across the Pikes Peak region...I have changed the expiration
date of the winter storms warning for Pikes Peak to noontime (it was
6 pm).

Tonight...low will continue to move slowly ne this evening.
Precip will linger over the far eastern plains into the evening
hours...ending later tonight. Showers in the mtns will end by
early to mid evening. Skies will gradually clear. Expect lows in
the 40s plains and 30s valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Active weather looks to continue across southern Colorado through
the middle of next week before drier conditions move into the
region. Models are in general agreement with the overall pattern
with higher confidence through the extended period.

Saturday through Monday...the upper pattern will feature a slow
moving upper level low over southern California with several
disturbances lifting northeast out of the desert southwest into
the central plains. This will also bring continued warm weather to
the region.

A weak disturbance in the flow will move across Colorado on
Saturday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop by
midday over the mountains, which will then spread eastward across
the plains through the evening hours. Thunderstorms will be
capable of producing small hail and locally heavy rainfall.

A stronger disturbance is forecast to lift northward out of New
Mexico and into western Kansas on Sunday. Models are developing a
dryline out near the Kansas border during the afternoon hours.
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the dryline Sunday
afternoon, but there is some uncertainty as to how far west or
east the dryline will be. The GFS solution develops convection in
western Kansas with our Colorado plains missing out. The NAM is
further west with convection out near the Kansas border. Modest
instability and decent shear will likely allow for storms that do
develop to become strong to severe. This will need to be
monitored. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the mountains which will likely spread east into the I-25 corridor
through the afternoon and evening.

Another round of convection is forecast on Monday into Monday
night. An upper low over Montana is forecast to send a cold front
south Monday evening. Ahead of the cold front, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected over the mountains, spreading east
into the plains during the evening. Flow behind the cold front is
forecast to turn northeasterly upslope with increasing chances for
widespread showers Monday night across the plains.

Temperatures Saturday through Monday will be warm with mid 70s to
lower 80s for much of the lower elevations.

Tuesday and Wednesday...the upper level low over Montana will
slowly move into the northern plains with an upper trough dropping
south across Colorado. At the surface, northeasterly to easterly
moist upslope flow is forecast to prevail. This, combined with
embedded energy with the passing trough, will combine to keep
showers and thunderstorms going across much of southern Colorado.
If the GFS solution verifies, there could be a period of locally
heavy rainfall over the eastern mountains and I-25 corridor
Tuesday into Wednesday before clearing out Wednesday afternoon.
The GFS solution is also much cooler than what the current grids
indicate. The 700 mb temperatures drop to 0-2C over the Palmer
Divide Wednesday morning. For now have highs in the 60s to 70s
across the region, but would not be surprised if these are too
high. The cooler temperatures would also bring lower snow levels
with mountain areas seeing possibly another round of decent
snowfall for the peak, down to about 9 kft.

Thursday...high pressure will build over the Great Basin by late
in the week which will bring drier and warmer weather to the
region for the later part of the week. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will likely remain possible over the
mountains.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Upper low over eastern Colorado will continue to shift slowly
northeastward today. Precipitation wrapping around western side of
this system will continue to threaten KCOS and KPUB terminals with
VCSH this afternoon. Winds will remain breezy for both KCOS and
KPUB with speeds in the 15-30 kt range. Cigs this morning will
remain VFR. A little farther westward, ALS will see less a chance
for showers...but could still see VCSH during the afternoon and
evening hours. Clouds and showers will decrease quickly during
this evening with winds becoming light with speeds under 10 kts.
-KT


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT



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