Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
427 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Currently...the forecast is right on track early this morning with
observations indicating strong winds over the mountains, spreading
east along the lee slopes, generally west of I-25.  Winds have been
gusting in the 45 to 60 mph range, especially over Huerfano and
western Las Animas Counties where the high wind warning is out.
This has also kept temperatures warm where the wind is blowing, with
near steady temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s.  Further east,
winds are lighter and temperatures have fallen into the 40s.
Satellite and radar indicate snow has moved into the Central
Mountains early this morning. upper level trough is forecast to drop southeast out of
the Northern Rockies across Utah and Wyoming by this afternoon.
Strong westerly flow aloft ahead of the upper system will continue
to spread across southern Colorado through this afternoon.  The
greatest potential for downslope winds appears to be through 9 am,
especially along the lee slopes of the Wet Mountain and southern
Sangre de Cristo ranges, impacting areas of Huerfano and western Las
Animas Counties.  There could also be a few rogue gusts off the
Rampart Range into the Colorado Springs area this morning.  As the
upper flow increases, the atmospheric profile becomes less favorable
for downslope potential, with mixing taking over.  This will allow
for winds to spread east across the Plains for this afternoon.
Expect temperatures to warm well into the 70s for this afternoon
across the Plains, with west winds gusting 40 to 50 mph.  Higher
wind speeds are expected over the Mountains.  Snow is expected to
continue throughout the day along the Continental Divide, with
models indicating light snow moving into the Eastern Mountains this
afternoon.  Travel conditions will likely be difficult over high
mountain passes due to snow and blowing snow.  Dry conditions are
expected to prevail across the Eastern Plains through this afternoon.

Tonight...the upper level storm system will track eastward across
Colorado into Western Kansas by morning.  This will send a strong
cold front south across the Plains by midnight.  Winds will shift
northerly with gusts across much of the Plains in the 35 to 45 mph
range.  Models in good agreement with a peak in snowfall over the
Central Mountains this evening before dissipating later tonight.
Models also agree with a band of light precipitation spreading east
across the Palmer Divide into Northeast Colorado, clearing to the
east by Saturday morning.  Our Eastern Plains will remain dry, with
perhaps a few light showers over northern El Paso County overnight.
If it does end up snowing over northern El Paso County, do not
expect any accumulations at this time.  Models in good agreement
with snow dissipating over the mountains by morning as the upper
system moves off to the east.  Snow totals look on track, with 8 to
12 inches over the higher elevations of the Central Mountains, and
down into the San Juans.  Locally higher amounts are likely.  Areas
over the upper Arkansas reaches including Leadville, and areas over
the La Garita Range will likely see totals of 4 to 8 inches with
locally higher amounts possible. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

...Cooler than Average Saturday but then Warmer than Average...

Saturday will be dry and cooler than average in the wake of the
current system moving through the area.  Then, high pressure
rebuilds over the region for a return to generally dry and warmer
than average weather.  The one exception to this could come Monday
night and Tuesday as a quick moving shortwave moves through the
region from the Pacific northwest.  This system is currently progged
to bring snow showers to the central mountains and possibly Pikes
Peak Region Monday night into early Tuesday morning, accompanied by
a drop in temperatures for all areas.  The GFS has recently trended
toward a slightly stronger solution over southern Colorado. However,
other models and model runs are not so supportive of this idea.  So,
confidence in this system being stronger than expected is pretty low
at this point. But, we will continue to monitor. Otherwise, after
the Monday night/Tuesday system, high pressure rebuilds over the
area for more dry and unseasonably warm weather for the remainder of
the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 349 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

KALS...southwest to westerly winds will increase through the morning
hours into the afternoon.  Gusts to 40 kts are possible.  A cold
front will shift winds northwesterly this evening with continued
strong wind gusts.  CIGS will likely lower to near MVFR behind the
front.  Winds will weaken late tonight.

KCOS...westerly winds are strong off the deck with wind shear likely
this morning.  Mixing once the sun rise should bring strong westerly
winds to the terminal through this afternoon, with gusts in excess
of 40 kts expected.  A strong cold front will move across the area
this evening, with a northwesterly wind shift and continued strong
winds.  There may be a few showers in the area behind the front with
reduced CIGS to near MVFR.

KPUB...westerly winds will increase through the morning hours.
Gusts in excess of 40 kts are possible through this afternoon.  A
strong cold front will arrive this evening with continued strong
winds through much of the overnight period. Mozley


Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ059-063-

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ058-060-061-

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ087-088.



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