Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 032049
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
249 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING EL PASO COUNTY...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY PUSHED
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD EASTERLY
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN ON THE RISE WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH 70S TO TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING
CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE INGREDIENTS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER TELLER AND
EL PASO COUNTIES.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 J/KG RANGE.  SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE TO BRING
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO EL PASO COUNTY.  THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 60 MPH.  AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY...THERE WILL BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY.  HAIL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND VEGETATION.  TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF A STORM SHOULD MOVE YOUR WAY.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  ACROSS THE PLAINS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE.  THE ONLY AREA IN QUESTION WILL BE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50.  MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ANY CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15 DEGREES TOO DRY IN
DEWPOINTS AND GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY POP...AND IF THEY DO...THE COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE.  FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EL PASO COUNTY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT SPREADING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WARM
AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
80S ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRY AND
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE.  ANY
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO EL PASO COUNTY WHERE THE
BEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE APPEARS TO BE. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

...ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...

THE WEATHER IS GOING TO LIKELY BE QUITE ACTIVE DURING MOST OF THIS
TIME PERIOD. LOTS OF LLVL MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN PLACE AND WIND
FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY GOING TO MOISTEN UP ALOFT AS
REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE GET INGESTED INTO
THE MID LVL SW FLOW.

FRIDAY...

CLOSED LOW FCST TO BE OVERS CALIF THIS DAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION WHILE MOIST SE UPSLOPE WILL BE IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM TC ANDRES WILL BE OVER THE SW CONUS AND
WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. LIKEWISE...THINGS WILL LIKELY
BE GETTING WET OVER THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SCTD VALUES MOST OTHER AREAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS DAY. SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
CAPE VALUES VARY IN THE GUIDANCE WITH NAM SHOWING 1500-2000 CAPE
WHILE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. REASON FOR THIS IS GFS BRING WARM
FRONT NWD TO THE PALMER DVD SCOURING OUT THE BETTER LLVL MOISTURE
OVER THE PLAINS. NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS WARM FRONT OVER THE
RATON MESA. FOR NOW...GIVEN WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON THIS
SRING...BELIEVE WE WILL BE IN A MOISTER PATTERN AND FRI
AFTERNOON/EVE WE WILL SEE ORGANIZED TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
REGION.

SATURDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA THIS DAY. LLVL FLOW GOES SOUTHERLY AS PER
ALL THE GUIDANCE...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THREAT AS REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC TC`S CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION. PRECIP
ON PLAINS MAY BE A BIT LESS THIS DAY BUT HI POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVER THE MTNS. SVR STORMS ON THE PLAINS NOT LIKELY THIS DAY AS IT
STANDS NOW AS SHEAR MARGINAL.

SUNDAY...

TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE MAY START TO COME INTO PLAY AS NHC HAS THIS
STORM MOVING NEARLY DUE NORTH TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BAJA PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION...COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS AND OUR LLVL
FLOW WILL GO MOIST UPSLOPE ONCE AGAIN. SHEARED 500 MB CIRC WILL BE
OVER NV/UT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG JET OVERHEAD. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN
LIKELY SEE STRONG CONVECTION THIS DAY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ALL REGIONS. HAVE DRAWN UP LIKELY/SCTD POPS FCST AREA-WIDE.

MONDAY...

FLOWS GOES MORE WESTERLY ALOFT THIS DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT
OF TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF US. WITH THE COOL POOL OF
THE REMNANT 500 MB CIRC OVER US...STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED
UPSLOPE...THREAT OF SVR WX WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN ON THE PLAINS. WE
STILL COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
E FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

TUES...WED...

FLOW ALOFT TAKES ON NW COMP SO TROPICAL MSTR WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
THESE DATES. HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND LLVL UPSLOPE WILL
CONTINUE SO CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING TO NEAR 25 KTS.

KCOS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY THROUGH 01Z/THUR. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT PASS OVER THE TERMINAL. FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LOW CIGS DEVELOPING TO NEAR 2 KFT AND LASTING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW AS CURRENT THINK IS STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOWERED CIGS TO NEAR 2-
4 KFT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE TERMINAL BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY


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