Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270543
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1143 PM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

UPPER RIDGING IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEVADA BY 00Z SUNDAY.

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES/CONCERNS INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES...POPS AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

SOUTHERN COLORADO ONCE AGAIN EXPERIENCING ABOVE SEASONAL LATE
SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES
EASTERN SECTIONS AND VARIABLE CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.
LOCALIZED EARLY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS WERE GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER
25 KNOTS.  ALSO...AT 245 PM MDT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE CONEJOS/ARCHULETA COUNTY LINE AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
MINERAL COUNTY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT AS OF 245 PM MDT.

LATEST NEAR/SHORT-TERM REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NOTED OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS
EVENING IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE SEPTEMBER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE CWFA.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED...ONCE AGAIN FAVORING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA.  ALSO...LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN BY LATER SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SECTIONS
OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA SLOW DRIFTS
EAST. A PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES IN THE THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT OF
KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
COLORADO...JUST WEST OF OUR CWA. KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY. KEPT
POPS NEAR ZERO OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW STARTS DRIFTING EAST...HOWEVER MOST OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. GRIDS STILL
HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS OVER THE PLAINS...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY. NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
RESULTING IN FASTER STORM MOTION.

.MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER UTAH STARTS MOVING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
AS A SHARP OPEN WAVE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
CONVECTIVE WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR AND LIFT ON MONDAY
AS 500MB INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MAIN CHALLENGE
WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH AND THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE KANSAS BORDER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. STILL TOO EARLY TO GET
VERY SPECIFIC ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AND SPC DAY 4 TO 8 OUTLOOK
HIGHLIGHTS THE CONCERNS ABOUT LACK OF INSTABILITY.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. TROUGH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. EC AND GFS SUGGEST SOME UPSLOPE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
PLAINS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL. CURRENT MODEL RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH
OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
SOME SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...POSSIBLY DOWN TO AROUND 9000
FEET. BEHIND THE TROUGH..A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER BY FRIDAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY.
KALS MAY START TO SEE SOME STORMS IN THE VICINITY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS ENERGY OVER UTAH EDGES EASTWARD. HOWEVER...BOTH KCOS
AND KPUB SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO STAY CLEAR OF ANY STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN
COLORADO. COVERAGE SHOULD RATCHET UP A NOTCH OR TWO FROM WHAT WAS
SEEN TODAY. PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. MVFR/IFR/LIFR WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW


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