Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 262053
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
253 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...MAYBE EIGHTY TOMORROW...
...SEVERE THREAT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...

CURRENTLY...AS ADVERTISED...LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS
THE RATON MESA AND PALMER DVD. SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AND MOVE OFF IN A BROKEN LINE THIS
EVENING...REACHING THE KS BORDER BY 06Z OR SO. COULD SEE SOME
HAIL WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP NR THE KS BORDER OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH WED MORNING.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW...WITH H7 TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES OVER SE CO BY WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPS TODAY A GOOD
EXAMPLE OF HOW HIGHS ARE NOT REACHING MOS POTENTIAL...SO EVEN THOUGH
MOS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN LOWER 80S FOR THE PLAINS
TOMORROW...EXPECT WE WILL FALL SHORT ONCE AGAIN. BUT A FEW SPOTS OVER
THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD GET TO 80 OR BETTER BY MID AFTERNOON.

OTHER CHALLENGE TOMORROW WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX. SPC DY 2 HAS
THE SLIGHT RISK RIGHT ALONG OUR KS BORDER...WHICH LOOKS APPROPRIATE
GIVEN LOWER 50 DEWS OVER THE ERN COUNTIES...AND STRENGTHENING BULK
SHEAR. HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WED EVENING...SFC DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WHICH RESULTS IN CAPE VALUES OF
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG...BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT VERY
SIGNIFICANT...BEING AROUND 25 KTS.  THERE COULD BE A COUPLE SEVERE
STORMS IN THE EVENING NR THE ERN BORDER WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. LATER WED NIGHT AN UPR
TROF WL LIE FROM EXTREME NWRN WY THRU UT AND INTO AZ. PCPN OVR THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD MOSTLY END BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ALONG THE ERN BORDER.

ON THU A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACRS CO...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS FIRING OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH
VALLEYS BY MIDDAY AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVE EASTWARD.  THE NAM IS FORECASTING CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...BUT
SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE.  HOWEVER...WL PROBABLY SEE A
COUPLE OR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE UPR TROF THEN BEGINS MOVING ACRS THE AREA THU NIGHT WITH MOST OF
THE AREA DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. A SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA EARLY
FRI AND FOR THE AFTERNOON PCPN CHANCES INCREASE ACRS THE AREA AS LOW
TO MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS.  IN THE EVENING HOURS...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...THEN
CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.  THE GFS SHOWS PCPN AMOUNTS OF
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR MORE OVR THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER COUPLE OR A FEW TENTHS IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND
SLIDES EAST OVR CO ON SUNDAY...BRINGING DRIER WX BUT STILL A CHANCE
FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN PCPN OVR AND NR THE HIGH TRRN. THE UPR
RIDGE WL BE MOVING EAST ON MON AS A NEW TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN
STATE.  WL PROBABLY MOSTLY SEE HYR TRRN PCPN ON MON. THEN ON TUE THE
NEW UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO STILL BE TO OUR WEST...AND THE ECMWF
SHOWS MSTR BRING DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO ERN CO DURING THE
DAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN.  HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS MORE
WESTERLY TO SWRLY FLOW THAT DOES NOT BRING UP THAT MSTR. HARD TO SAY
AT THIS TIME HOW THINGS WL ACTUALLY TURN OUT A WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL AGAIN PICK UP IN COVERAGE AROUND 00Z OVER THE ERN
MTS...THEN SPREAD EWD OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS CLEAR OVER THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS BY 03-05Z IF NOT
EARLIER. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT STRONGER TOMORROW WITH HIGHER WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HAIL. KALS WILL SEE LESSER CHANCES OF TS TODAY AND TOMORROW. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE



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