Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 160533

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1033 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Issued at 1017 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Current forecast on track with banded light snow sinking south
thorugh the plains and I-25 corridor. Did make a few changes to
Fri morning, mainly to end snow a little quicker, as most models
show little/no QPF after 12z.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

...Quick shot of snow for the southeast mts/adjacent plains

Upper trof across western CO will move across the state tonight.
Meanwhile surface cold front currently moving slowly southward
through El Paso county is set to make a stronger push southward
through the plains this evening as the upper trof moves across.
Could see gusts up to around 35 mph behind the front. Already
starting to see a decline in snow across the southwest mountains as
flow aloft has become more northwesterly.  However, orographics and
lift will continue to favor the central mountains for snow for a
couple more hours this afternoon. Overall 00z timing for ending of
warnings and advisories still look on target.

As the cold front drops through the plains should see snow ramp up
across the southeast mountains and the adjacent plains late this
evening through the overnight hours.  Upslope is shallow, however
and forcing with the system looks relatively weak, so overall not
expected more than an inch or two of snowfall accumulation for these
areas.  Although no highlights look necessary, roads may be slick
along the I-25 corridor during the Friday morning commute.

Friday will dry out through the morning hours...though will see some
lingering clouds and light snow along the southern slopes of the
Palmer Divide in the morning as low level flow shifts out of the
southeast.  In fact, this may keep clouds in most of the day across
this area, though moisture does shallow out with time and expect
some breaks by afternoon. Have kept max temperatures for COS on the
cold side of guidance to account for this.  Elsewhere didn`t stray
too far from model blends and guidance values.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Friday night-Saturday night...Strong northwest flow aloft across the
region Friday night moderates and becomes more westerly through the
day Saturday. Models indicating breezy to windy conditions over and
near the higher terrain Friday night, with gusts in the 50 to 60 mph
range possible into early Saturday morning> and will need to watch
for possible highlights, especially in the Pikes Peak Region, which
is most susceptible to high winds in WNW flow regimes. Light snow
showers remain possible across the higher terrain of the Central
Mountains Friday night, with dry conditions then expected across the
area Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures warm back to at and
above seasonal levels on Saturday, with highs in the 50s to lower
60s expected across the lower elevations, and mainly in the 30s and
40s across the higher terrain.

Sunday-Tuesday...West to southwest flow increases across the area
through the day Sunday, as our next weather maker digs across the
West Coast and into the Great Basin region Sunday night. Warm
downslope flow will allow temps to warm into the 60s to lower 70s
across the Eastern Plains on Sunday, with breezy west to southwest
winds leading to the potential for critical fire weather conditions.
Latest models continue to bring said trough across the Rockies
Sunday night through Monday night, however, continue to indicate run
to run differences on strength and timing of said system. At any
rate, should see increasing chances of precipitation along and west
of the ContDvd Sunday night, with snow showers likely across the Dvd
Monday and Monday night, with light to moderate accumulations
expected at this time. Further east, precipitation will depend on
how far the system digs, with the GFS keeping most of precipitation
just north of the Palmer Divide, whereas the ECMWF solution brings
better chances of precipitation to the Eastern Mountains through the
Southern I-25 Corridor. For now, blended model pops leaned towards
the wetter solution for Southern Colorado. Monday highs will be
tricky across the Eastern Plains, with much cooler air pushing in
from the North through the day. Regardless of precipitation, Monday
night through Tuesday night look to be on the chilly side, with
highs only in the 20s and 30s across the Plains Tuesday and lows in
the single digits and teens.

Wedensday-Thursday...Continued west to southwest flow aloft will
lead to a slow warming trend across the area through the middle of
next week. Dry conditions look to return to Eastern Colorado, with
the potential for generally light snowfall across the ContDvd
through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1017 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Banded light snow will continue at KPUB and KCOS through 09z-10z,
with mainly IFR conditions, though a couple brief periods of LIFR
vis will be possible under the heaviest bands. Snow begins to fade
away after 10z at both terminals, but with se low level winds
developing, expect fog and stratus to develop and keep conditions
IFR both site through midday Fri, before clearing develops 19z-
21z. At KALS, expect VFR the next 24 hrs.




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