Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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514
FXUS65 KPUB 302141
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
341 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE
TEMPERATURES...POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND WINDS.

LATEST OBSERVATION NETWORK/RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY ETC...INDICATES
THAT FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
COMBINATION WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...WELL BELOW LAST DAY OF APRIL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE CWFA IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY COMPONENT SURFACE WINDS OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS.

LATEST PVA ANALYSIS...NEAR/REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WINTRY FEEL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY (I.E. THE 1ST
DAY OF MAY 2016).

AN EXAMPLE OF THIS IS THAT WFO PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING (SINCE MAY 1ST IS THE 1ST DAY OF THE NORMAL GROWING
SEASON OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT) THAT WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS...WHERE MANY LOCATIONS IN THIS FREEZE WARNING SHOULD
EXPERIENCE 32F OR COLDER AIR TEMPERATURE READINGS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME-
FRAME...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND CLOUDS MAY PREVENT SOME LOCATIONS FROM
EXPERIENCING SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERING FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 00Z MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO UNTIL AROUND 09Z SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS STILL PROJECTED
TO REMAIN WEST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO SUNDAY.  HAVE
ALSO DEPICTED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
OVER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONTEMPLATED ISSUING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS (I.E. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY) OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER HAVE REFRAINED FOR NOW AS PRIMARY IMPACT WILL
OCCUR IN THE 2ND PERIOD (SUNDAY) AND CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES ONLY
SUPPORT 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE ONE TO FOUR INCH
RANGE (I.E. BELOW CRITERIA) AT THIS TIME...WITH LIGHTER
SNOW/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. IF LATER
TRENDS/COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INTENSIFY STRENGTH AND/OR INDICATE A
MORE FAVORABLE TRACK WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN WFO PUEBLO
WOULD ISSUE NECESSARY WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. AS ALWAYS...WFO
PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

FINALLY...WELL BELOW SEASONAL LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

...UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...

LATEST MODELS COMING IN A BIT WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. IN FACT...BY 00Z SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS TREND TOWARD
A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NAM HAS A BETTER
DEFINED TROF MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AND IT HAS MORE QPF AS WELL. THE BROAD TROF...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS COULD PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOWFALL...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE INTENSE SNOWFALL AT TIMES.
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.

THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI WITH TROFINESS IMPACTING EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY. STILL DEALING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON AN UPWARD TREND...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA/SOUTHERN NV FRIDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A
STRONG MID LEVEL JET COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IF THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK. SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE KPUB AND ESPECIALLY KCOS TAF
SITES. IN ADDITION...SNOW AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DETERIORATING TO IFR AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY
AFTER 10Z SUNDAY) AS NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH NOT
DEPICTED IN TAFS YET DUE TO CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
COZ083>089-093>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...77



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