Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 182102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
302 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

This afternoon, thunderstorms have fired along a boundary in
southeast CO and are tracking northeastward.  There will continue to
be the potential for a couple severe storms over sern CO into this
evening, with the main threat being large hail.

This evening, the highest chances for pcpn are expected to be found
over the central CO mtns, Teller county, Pikes Peak, and the
southwest mtns.  These areas will see some additional accumulations
of snow.  The latest run of the HRRR and the 18Z run of the NAM12
are showing decreasing chances of pcpn over El Paso county thru the
evening hours, except maybe ovr the Monument Hill area where there
could be a couple or a few inches of additional snow accumulation.

After midnight, the HRRR and NAM12 show a significant decrease in
pcpn chances across all of southeast and south central CO, with only
some isolated showers.  The GFS continues to show a little more pcpn
than the other models, showing continued snowfall in the central
mtns thru the night, and some light snow accumulations over Teller
county and Pikes Peak, with some light showers over portions of the
southeast plains, increasing toward 12Z.  The NAM is a bit farther
south with the upper low center Fri morning than the GFS.  Both the
NAM and the GFS show widespread pcpn moving into southeast CO after
12Z, with the GFS being wetter and more widespread than the NAM.  At
this time, it looks like there could be several inches of snow over
the southern Sangre de Cristo mtns beginning Fri morning and thru
the day, so will issue a Winter Weather Advisory.  It is also
possible that the southern I-25 corridor counties could see several
inches of snow in the morning hours on Fri, mainly over Huerfano and
western Las Animas counties and especially west of the Interstate,
as temps are expected to be cold enough for a short period, but
impact will probably be low as the roads will probably just be
slushy or wet.

One other worry is the potential for low temps tonight around
freezing.  Have decided to issue a Freeze Warning for northern El
Paso county, and a Frost Advisory for southern El Paso, Huerfano and
western Las Animas counties.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

Friday night and Saturday...Models place a secondary piece of the
upper low over the southeast corner of the state Friday evening,
with snow for the higher elevations and rain for the lower expected
to continue through the evening. As the low pulls off to the e-ne
away from Colorado overnight, pcpn chances are forecast to diminish
quickly after midnight with unsettled nw flow aloft then settling
in. Another cold night on tap for the forecast area Fri night, and
additional frost/freeze highlights will likely be needed tomorrow.
Otherwise, look for temps to only warm into the 50s and 60s across
the area on Sat.

Sunday through Thursday...As the system exits the region, long range
models continue to keep Colorado under active northwest flow, with
multiple shortwaves crossing the region. There will be a nearly
constant threat of at least isolated convection over the higher
terrain and adjacent plains each day. A cold front dropping south
across the eastern plains Mon aftn will produce cooler temps for
Tue, then drier air filtering in behind is forecast to keep the cwa
dry for Wed. Temps will climb into the 60s to lower 70s each day,
but cooler on Tue with 50s and 60s expected. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

At this time is looks like KPUB will mostly see VFR conditions
tonight and into Fri morning, however there may be some showers or
tstms in the area this evening.  Fri morning there will be
increasing chances for rain again and ceilings will lower, possibly
into the MVFR category by late morning.  KCOS will probably see some
showers/tstms in the area this evening with periods of MVFR
conditions. Chances for pcpn then are expected to decrease or end by
late evening with VFR conditions.  Chances for pcpn are then
expected to increase during the day Fri, but VFR conditions are
still expected until toward evening when ceilings are forecast to
lower into the MVFR category.  KALS is expected to have VFR
conditions until around 13Z Fri and then the ceilings are expected
to lower into the MVFR or IFR category.  There may be some
showers/tstms in the vcnty of KALS this evening, and could move into
the area again Fri afternoon.


Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ059-063-066-

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ058-060-082.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ074-

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ084.

Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM MDT Friday for



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