Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 101718
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1018 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 500 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

...Dry and Unseasonably Mild...

Dry and unseasonably mild weather will continue today.  Massive
upper high pressure ridge over the western U.S. will expand eastward
a bit, strengthening over Colorado.  The airmass over the area will
warm in response to the strengthening.  Consequently, another day of
mild December weather is expected with afternoon highs climbing 10
to 20 degrees above average for this time of year. Upper jet will be
a bit too far north and east of the forecast area for winds strong
enough to trigger fire weather highlights. Regardless, humidities
will still be very low. Caution needs to continue with regard to
activities that could accidentally start wildfires.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 500 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Other than gusty winds and localized/elevated fire weather
concerns at times, project that dry conditions and above seasonal
average temperatures will be noted over the forecast district
during the longer term.

Latest longer term computer simulations, forecast model
soundings and PV/Precipitable Water analysis suggest that dry
north-northwesterly upper flow will prevail over the forecast
district from Monday into Friday, with upper flow then becoming
zonal to northwesterly from Friday evening into Saturday.

At the surface, varying degrees of eastern Colorado surface lee-
side troughing should be realized from Monday into Friday
night(with deepest lee-side troughing expected from Friday into
Friday night). Strongest dry north-northeasterly surface surge
should be noted on Saturday.

At this time, the highest potential for stronger winds during the
longer term are projected from later Monday into Tuesday and then
again from Wednesday into Thursday night(primarily over eastern
sections).

Also, the highest potential for localized/elevated fire weather
concerns at times are anticipated Monday, Wednesday and Friday,
favoring eastern sections of the forecast district primarily
during the afternoon hours.

Generally above seasonal mid-December maximum and minimum temperatures
are anticipated over the majority of the forecast district during
the longer term(especially from the eastern foothills/mountains
into the I-25 corridor and across the southeastern Colorado
plains), where max/min temperatures should run some 5F to 20F
above climatological averages from Monday into next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1017 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

A high pressure system remains to our west, bringing dry conditions
and diurnal flow to KCOS and KPUB. Winds will remain light and
variable at KALS. VFR conditions for all KALS, KCOS, and KPUB for
the forecast period

Skelly

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SKELLY


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