Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENTLY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMTN WEST. A
COUPLE OF WEAK/ISOLD SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE WEST SLOPE OF CO.
OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...T/TD SPREADS WERE QUITE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASING ON THE CONTDVD.

TODAY...

MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG FORMATION. AS OF 3 AM...NO FOG
WAS NOTED OVER THE E PLAINS OF CO...ALTHOUGH IT WAS DEVELOPING OVER
PARTS OF W KS. I EXPECT THIS FOG TO DEVELOP INTO THE STATE SHORTLY
AND MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. I PLAN TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY HILITES...BUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
FOR PARTS OF THE E PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

LATER THIS MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHERLY LLVL WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM EADS TO LAS
ANIMAS TO TRINIDAD. THESE GUSTY SSW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TIME PD.

AS FOR PRECIP...I EXPECT IT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY THROUGH
NOONTIME ACROSS THE REGION. I CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SW MTNS...BUT THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE MTNS TODAY WILL BE
LIQUID...WITH ANY ACCUM SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 10KFT. SOME THUNDER IS
LIKELY IN THE MTNS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD. LOCAL
CONVECTIVE SNOWBURST ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT...

EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE C MTNS THIS
EVENING. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...WE WILL SEE SNOWLVLS
DECREASE WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF WIDESPREAD SNOW LIKELY OVER THE MTNS
ABOVE 9500 FEET. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS.

OVER THE PLAINS...THE COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE PALMER DVD SEEING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. I DO NOT EXPECT THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE ANY PRECIP ANYTIME TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH INTO THIS WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
TURNING EASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY...COMING TO AN
END WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL
TIMING...AS THE NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND PRINTS
OUT BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 9500 FEET WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ON AREA PEAKS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
EAST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH ARE NEARING RECORD HIGHS EACH
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST...AND LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LATEST GFS TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTH
WITH LIMITED IMPACTS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT
ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM...BRINGING IT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE MAY SEE SOME STRATUS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. T/TD SPREADS WERE DECREASING AND GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG FORMATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR LOW CIGS AFFECTING TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
A KCOS..KPUB AND KALS. KALS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PASSING
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA LATER TODAY/EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD
OCCUR AT KCOS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 22/06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



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