Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
427 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 423 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Primary near/short range meteorological issues include
temperatures, pops and locally gusty winds at times. Forecast
district currently graced by continued above seasonal late October
temperatures in combination with partly to mostly cloudy skies as
well as some isolated shower activity, primarily over western
sections. Also, locally gusty higher terrain winds also noted
early this morning with wind gusts in excess of 40 mph at times
recently noted near Wolf Creek Pass and the Pikes Peak Summit.

Recent real-time data, PV analysis, computer simulations and
forecast model soundings indicate that adequate atmospheric
moisture(as noted by precipitable water values basically running
100% to 150+% of late October averages) interacting with a
relatively healthy upper disturbance(per recent PV analysis) will
allow isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm
activity into this evening(favoring western portions), with drier
conditions then developing from later tonight into Wednesday.

Have depicted additional snow amounts of an inch or two over higher
terrain locations(primarily over sections of the continental
divide)into this morning. In addition, will also showcase locally
gusty higher terrain wind gusts into at least this morning. Also,
a northerly surge is projected to move across eastern portions of
the forecast district by tonight.

Finally, above seasonal later October maximum and minimum
temperatures are expected to continue over the majority of the
forecast district during the next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 423 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

An upper level ridge will be building back over the area on Wed, and
will then remain over the state into early Fri. This will result
in dry and unseasonably warm weather thru Fri.

Late Fri, a disturbance is forecast to move into the Great Basin and
then will move acrs the area Fri night.  There isn`t a lot of mstr
associated with this disturbance, but it may bring some isold to sct
pcpn to the Continental Divide Fri and Fri night.

On Sat and upper level trof wl be off the west coast.  The ECMWF
shows and upper level ridge ovr CO with another dry and warm day.
The GFS shows the upper ridge shifted to the east of the area and
westerly flow aloft bringing some pcpn into mainly the western mtns.
Then for Sun the GFS shows a broad upper trof ovr the western U.S.
with pcpn ovr western CO.  The ECMWF is slower moving the trof
eastward, and keeps CO dry on Sun.

For Mon both models lift the upper disturbance northeastward acrs
the nrn Rockies and into the northern plains states, and show the
possibility of just some isold to sct pcpn ovr mainly the
Continental Divide.  It looks like southwest winds will increase on
Mon ovr the forecast area and could lead to increasing fire


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 423 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Outside of increased mid and high clouds at times(due to a passing
upper disturbance), isolated shower/thunderstorm threat into this
evening and locally gusty winds associated with a northerly
surge (impacting KCOS and KPUB) this evening and tonight,
anticipate that generally VFR conditions should be experienced at
the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites during the next 24 hours.




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