Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY...

FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL TOMORROW...SEE THE
EARLIER AFD UPDATE AT NOON. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...STILL SOME
CONCERN...MAINLY FOR THE WALDO BURN SCAR...AS SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA THROUGH 04Z OR SO. TEMPS WORKED OUT NICELY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE ERN PLAINS. THE MONSOON PLUME
IS ORIENTED W-E ACROSS CO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE CW AROUND
THE RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 12Z OVER THE PALMER DVD. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEENTHE
GFS AND NAM...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS QPF.
OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTING OF A WIDESPREAD MDT-HIGH PRECIP
EVENT. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
FOR A FLOODING EVENT IS IN PLACE AND IT LIKELY TRUMPS ANY
PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION. THE MAIN UNKNOWN IS HOW INTENSE PRECIP
WILL BE GIVEN THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CONSEQUENTIAL
STABILIZATION DUE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUDS. LATER HIGH RES
SOLUTIONS SHOULD SHED SOME LIGHT ON THE QUALITY OF CONVECTION
TOMORROW. THE ONE GIVEN IS THAT IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS. A NICE BREAK
FORM THE HEAT...HOPEFULLY THE RAINS WILL COME SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT
PROBLEMS WILL BE MINIMIZED...BUT EVERYONE SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THE WEATHER TOMORROW. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED. AN BROAD UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA WL STILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE
PERIOD. MONSOON MOISTURE WL BE STREAMING OVR THE AREA...AND THE LOW
LEVELS WL BE MOIST OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHERE DEW POINTS WL BE IN
THE 50S. HEAVY RAIN WL BE A THREAT EACH DAY AND ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED...DEPENDING ON THE DAILY THREAT AREA AND
PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS WL
SEE THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES...BUT STORMS WL ALSO BE FOUND OVR THE
SERN PLAINS.  ON TUE A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVR THE
AREA...POSSIBLY ENHANCING PCPN CHANCES OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  MODELS
STILL SUGGESTING AN MCS DEVELOPING AND KEEPING CONVECTION AND THE
THREAT FOR HVY RAIN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO WED
MORNING.  WITH A MORE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER THROUGH THE WEEK AND WL BE BELOW
AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED
WITH AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS TOMORROW. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE WEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
WITH THESE STORMS SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS. VFR CIGS
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
IN HEAVY RAIN...GENERALLY AFT 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ072>089-093-094-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW



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