Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 241707
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1107 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE GENERALLY LOW
GRADE POPS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION
WITH NEAR SEASONAL LATE AUGUST EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES AND
LOCALIZED AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT RATHER TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN ISOLATED TO
LOW GRADE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MANY SOUTHERN COLORADO LOCATIONS PROJECTED TO
EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.  CLOSED UPPER LOW SHOULD
BE DROPPING INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON BY 12Z MONDAY.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE NOTED OVER MANY
LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.  FINALLY...MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RUN WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF LATE AUGUST CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

WEATHER WILL GEAR UP AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE
EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN BY
TUESDAY. INITIALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS THE
FORECAST AREA FAIRLY DRY...THOUGH MOISTURE DOES INCREASE A BIT FOR
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW FAIRLY HIGH BASED LCLS...SO MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY THREATS. NAM AND GFS KEEP A
FRONT POISED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE ON
MONDAY...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE...AS IF IT DROPS
FARTHER SOUTH...WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
THREATEN SOME HEAVY ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING FOR THE WALDO BURN SCAR. FOR NOW...APPEARS THIS THREAT IS
LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER
TROF FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CUT OFF LOW
DROPPING INTO NV/WRN UT BY 00Z WED...WHILE NAM IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH...AND GFS (THE OUTLIER) IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE...OPEN AND EVEN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AS
IT IS ALREADY ENTERING NORTHWEST CO BY OOZ WED. CANADIAN AGREES
MORE WITH THE EC SOLUTION AND THESE ARE PREFERRED OVER THE GFS BY
WPC. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAY ALSO PROVIDE A CLUE AS AROUND HALF
OF THEM PORTRAY A SLOWER MORE CLOSED OFF SOLUTION THAT IS
REMINISCENT OF THE EC AND CANADIAN RUN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY...BUT LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC AND CANADIAN
FOR NOW. THIS MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER
TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE FROM 0.4 OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 1.0 ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...TO 0.7
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 1.25 ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ELEVATE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS. MODELS SUGGEST A
SHALLOW FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLANS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MIXING IT BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TO
THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT...MARGINAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COULD
LEAD TO A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FOR NORTHERN EL PASO
CROWLEY...AND KIOWA COUNTIES IF EVERYTHING SETS UP JUST RIGHT. LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CO/NW KS WHICH SENDS ANOTHER
REINFORCING SURGE OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS
OVERNIGHT.

WITH ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL LIKELY TO BE BACK
ACROSS UT/NW CO ON WEDNESDAY...THIS COULD BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
FOR THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAINING HIGH. COULD BE
ANOTHER LOW END SEVERE THREAT DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS DEW POINTS MAY STILL BE IN THE 50S...YIELDING CAPES OF
1000 J/KG OR A LITTLE GREATER. APPEARS MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE UPPER
FORCING COMING THROUGH POTENTIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING AGAIN. THIS
COULD END UP BEING SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY GOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY COULD BE LIMITED BY MORNING CONVECTION
AND OF COURSE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP
IN THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...BUT OVERALL TREND MAY BE FOR
WEDNESDAY TO END UP AN ACTIVE/WET DAY AS WELL.

EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE WEEK WITH
DRIER WEATHER MOVING IN. ECMWF LINGERS THIS SYSTEM ACROSS CO FOR
THURSDAY WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE SUSPECT. WILL TREND THE FORECAST
DRIER AND WARMER BY LATE WEEK AS EVENTUALLY THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER CO.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUSTO OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE
THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY


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