Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1114 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016


Except for a few passing cirrus over the region...clear weather was
over the region at 3 am this morning. Temperatures showed some
variability across the plains...with some areas in the 30s (Kiowa
county) while other areas were near 60s (S prowers county). In the
higher terrain...the slopes of the mtns were rather warm (M40s)
while at mtn top and in the valleys...cold temperatures were noted

On the large scale...a very impressive storm was noted offshore of
the Pacific NW. A massive cirrus shield was noted with this
storm...and covered a large swath of the W CONUS and SW Canada.


Some early morning fog will be possible over the far se plains,
especially across far e Kiowa and Prowers counties. Otherwise, it
will be hot (for this time of the year). Max temps will reach well
into the 80s across quite a few sections of the Plains today...with
the warmest temps (U80s) along the lower ark rvr valley. Temps
getting into the 70s will occur in the valleys. It will be dry with
some increasing high clouds over the fcst area.

Marginal red flag conditions are expected over the San Luis valley
today, and a red flag warning is in effect for this region this
afternoon. We may see some critical fire wx conditions also occur
just to the lee of the S mtns this afternoon, but small areal extent
and short duration preclude any fire wx hilites at this time.
Marginal fire wx conditions may also occur for brief times across the
far SE CO plains this afternoon.


Temps will be mild across the region...especially in the lee of the
mtns where min temps will likely only get down into the 50s. Other
areas on the plains will get into the 40s with a few U30s across the
the far e plains. E slopes of other mtns ranges will be mild with
continued westerly flow increasing over the region. SLV floor should
cool down to aoa 30F. Will likely see some increase in high clouds
over the region.

It will be quite windy across the mtn tops tonight, especially
across the C and S mtns, with gusts in the 40-50 mph range possible.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

...Hot and dry into early next week with dangerous fire weather

Models in good agreement through the extended period with low
ensemble spreads and high forecast confidence. Of primary concern
will be dangerous fire weather conditions across the region
through Monday, followed by cooler conditions beyond.

Saturday through Monday...high pressure will be centered over
Texas while several disturbances off the Pacific Northwest track
east into the Northern Plains. This will put southern Colorado
under broad southwest to westerly flow aloft. Dry air and mixing
of the stronger winds aloft will lead to elevated fire weather
concerns into Monday. The most dangerous conditions look to remain
confined to the San Luis Valley on Saturday, before spreading east
into the I-25 corridor on Sunday. An upper disturbance in the flow
will tighten the gradient over the region on Monday, with
dangerous fire weather conditions for all of southern Colorado.
Temperatures will remain warm across the region with highs in the
mid 80s to lower 90s expected across the plains. For more details
on the fire weather conditions, see the fire weather section of
this discussion.

Tuesday through upper disturbance over Wyoming is
forecast to deepen into an upper low over Missouri through the
middle of the week. This will lead to cooler, but dry conditions
for southern colorado through this period.

A cold front will drop south across the plains by Tuesday morning
with a northerly wind shift and cooler air working into the
region. Models are indicating a few showers are possible over the
Central Mountains Monday night into Tuesday morning. An inch or
two of snow may be possible on the Central Mountain peaks. Broad
northerly flow will remain in place across the region Wednesday
into Thursday. A secondary cold front is forecast to move into the
area by Wednesday. The ECMWF and Canadian runs develop light
precipitation over the Palmer Divide, and spread it over the far
eastern plains behind the front. The GFS is less aggressive with
the front, and keeps precipitation confined to the Palmer Divide
into northeast Colorado. Temperatures are forecast to be more
seasonable with 60s and 70s for highs. Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Strengthening flow aloft will result in breezy to windy conditions
across the mountains and interior valleys today. Southwest winds
will increase at KALS after 20z with gusts to around 24 kts
possible. Winds at both KCOS and KPUB will be south to southwest
today around 10-15 kts...though some brief gusts to around 20 kts
will be possible at times through the afternoon. Winds will
decouple during the evening with speeds under 10 kts expected.
Similar conditions can be expected for Saturday with passing high
clouds at times. -KT


Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected for an extended
period of time for Southern Colorado. Critical conditions due to
strong, gusty winds, low humidity values and dry fuels are
expected over the San Luis Valley for this afternoon and evening,
and again on Saturday afternoon and evening. The latest guidance
suggests locations up the Arkansas River from Salida to near Canon
City may see near critical conditions on Saturday afternoon.

On Sunday, westerly flow aloft will increase, leading to enhanced
mixing of drier air and gusty winds eastward into the Eastern
Mountains, into the Interstate 25 corridor.

The most critical day of the forecast period appears to be Monday.
An upper disturbance passing across Wyoming will tighten the
gradient across Colorado. Guidance is indicating widespread strong
westerly winds across Southern Colorado which will combine with
very low humidity values. All areas of Southern Colorado will
likely see extreme fire weather conditions Monday afternoon and

These fire weather conditions will lead to rapid fire spreads
should a fire start. Any outdoor burning should be postponed
through Monday, including outdoor grilling. Mozley


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for COZ224.



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