Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 160305
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
805 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2014

MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW NOW DROPPING INTO EL PASO COUNTY...AND
EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE WITH A QUICK 2-4 INCHES LIKELY
BY MIDNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...HAD TO INCREASE FORECAST SNOW
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY OVER PUEBLO COUNTY WHERE 1-2 INCHES HAS ALREADY
FALLEN AND 00Z NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER 2-4 POSSIBLE. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY DROPPED THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO THOUGH
CORE OF COLDER AIR IS STILL SITTING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS (VS. THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS).
MAIN UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY ACROSS WY/ID AND WILL CONTINUE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION TONIGHT.  UPPER JET ACROSS CO
HAS LED TO SOME BANDED SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...WITH SOME
PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
MONUMENT HILL WHERE MOST OF THE FORCING IS LIKELY DUE TO SHALLOW
OROGRAPHICS.  SNOW ALSO CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...THOUGH INTENSITIES HAVE LET UP QUITE A BIT FROM THIS
MORNING.  THAT WILL BE CHANGING IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS THOUGH AS
DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH TIME.  BEST QG
FORCING APPEARS TO DROP THROUGH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  CHALLENGES STILL REVOLVE AROUND SNOW AMOUNTS.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING THE MOST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION...WITH GFS PREDICTING A HEALTHY 3-7 INCHES ACROSS THIS
REGION...WHILE NAM12 HAS MORE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.  RAP IS
GOING ALONG WITH GFS...WHILE ECMWF AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS
(ARW..NMM) AGREE MORE WITH THE NAM.  SO HAVE TO HUNT FOR CLUES TO
SUGGEST WHERE TO PUT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEADLINE AREAS.  GIVEN
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER FORCING IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...AND THE
BEST UPGLIDE OVER THE H7 FRONT SEEMS TO BE MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...HAVE LEFT PIKES PEAK AND EL PASO COUNTY OUT OF THE ADVISORY
AREA FOR NOW.  SNOWFALL GRIDS WILL CARRY AROUND 2-5 INCHES WITH
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY MORE IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

WHERE MODELS AGREE BETTER IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.  HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORIES NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD A TAD.  PUEBLO COUNTY IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE AS HEAVIER
AMOUNTS MAY END UP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WHILE NORTHEAST PORTIONS SEE MORE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO HIT THE SOUTHERN SANGRES WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF QPF...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM.  THUS HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES.  HAVE ALSO ADDED EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
TO THE ADVISORY WHERE THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON WILL HAVE THE
BENEFIT OF SOME NORTHEAST OROGRAPHICS.

WILL HOLD ON TO THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.  THESE AREAS SHOULD PICK UP ANOTHER 5 TO 10 INCHES OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS.

A COUPLE OTHER CHALLENGING SPOTS INCLUDE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE
HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SNOW.  HAVE GONE WITH AROUND AN
INCH TO 1.5 ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR GIVEN THIS AREA WILL BE IN
BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS. BEST CHANCE WILL COME IN
AFTER 10 PM FOR THIS AREA. BACA COUNTY IS THE FINAL CHALLENGE.
MODEL RUNS WERE SUGGESTING AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OUT THAT WAY...JUST
SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT LATEST NAM12 HAS COME IN HEAVIER...SO
THIS AREA MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND
SETS UP ACROSS THAT AREA.

HIGHLIGHTS WILL PARE OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARDS MORNING.  MOST
OF THE SNOW WILL BE DONE BY 10Z UP NORTH...AND BY 13-16Z DOWN SOUTH.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN BY MID DAY SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN.
SOME SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS UP NORTH IF CLEARING
CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH.  SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT SO LOWS THERE MAY ONLY DROP INTO
THE TEENS.  KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY CLOSER TO THE COLDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2014

...A SLOW WARMING TREND...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO AROUND MID NOVEMBER AVERAGES REMAINS IN THE
OFFING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AS COLD NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO
WARMER MORE WESTERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AND HEADACHE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS TO BE
INFLUENCED BY SNOW COVER. AT ANY RATE...HAVE GONE AT OR BELOW THE
COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND PLAINS WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. INDUCED LEE
TROUGHING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHOULD KEEP LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES
MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY.

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT FLATTENS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MINOR WAVES TRANSLATE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OWNING TO THE EXPECTED WARMING TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES ON ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2014

EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
CIGS DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT KCOS AND KPUB BY 00Z AS SNOW
DEVELOPS AND SPREAD OFF THE MOUNTAINS.  BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE
AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW.  SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 10Z FOR
BOTH TERMINALS WITH CIGS BREAKING BY 15Z.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  KALS WILL SEE A LITTLE LATER START TO THE
SNOW...WITH SNOW SPREADING IN AFTER 05Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
12Z.  CIGS MAY DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  KALS WILL SEE GUSTY
WEST WINDS...SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTH AFTER 08-09Z AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS.  WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIGHTER AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES.  -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ072-073-079-
080-087-088-094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ077-078-083-
086.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060-066.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT



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