Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 030537
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1237 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...03/06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE PD. HIGH CLOUDS WL CONT TO STREAM
SEWD ACRS THE FA...WITH SCTD CU FORMING BY THE AFTN HRS. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MON AFTN...BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FCST. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE SEEMINGLY EVER PRESENT UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RETREAT BACK TOWARDS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DRIVES AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS MISSOURI AND
NORTHERN AR. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE...WITH LESSER CHANCES FARTHER
SOUTH.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 90S FOR
MOST OF THE STATE...WITH SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE
CENTURY MARK. LOWS WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH MID WEEK BACK INTO 70S.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS...AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY OVER MUCH
OF AR...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES. THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S...WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS
WILL SET UP AN UPPER NW FLOW...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN AND EFFECT AR WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION
EACH DAY. A SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY...WHILE LOWER
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. OVER THE WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES DO LOWER A
BIT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS THROUGH THE STATE AND PUSHES THE
CHANCE OF RAIN TO SW AR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
AND 90S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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