Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 231941
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
An MCV...analyzed over northeast Oklahoma at 19z...is expected to
continue to move eastward through the evening hours. Scattered
convection is associated with this system...with the stronger
activity supported by greater instability.

Overall available convective energy is expected to increase during
this period. Low level warm advection...along with developing mesoscale
features...will support at least scattered convection through the
rest of this period. Additional MCS activity is likely across the
central/southern plains during this period...which also may
affect the forecast area while weakening as they approach.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Extended term still looking to be rather wet with POPs in virtually
every period.

Shortwave over the Southwestern US is still on track to progress
eastward and lift into the central plains by this weekend. The
forecast area will remain under a southwesterly flow aloft, and
several impulses are anticipated to ripple across the area.

At the surface high pressure will generally remain to the east of
the area, keeping a moist southerly flow in place. Disturbances
aloft, instability from daytime heating, and outflow boundaries will
be focal points for convection during the time frame.

With all of that said, highest POPs will be in the Thursday-Saturday
time frame as the shortwave progresses eastward, and POPs will
be notably lower Saturday evening thru the end of the extended term.

With the southerly flow in place, and dewpoints in the 60`s, it`s
going to feel a lot more like late May than it has recently. Max
temps will be back to normal, or a bit above.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  82  68  86 /  30  40  30  30
Camden AR         66  87  71  88 /  20  20  20  20
Harrison AR       61  79  66  83 /  30  40  30  30
Hot Springs AR    66  84  71  85 /  30  30  20  20
Little Rock   AR  65  85  70  87 /  30  30  20  20
Monticello AR     65  87  70  88 /  20  20  20  20
Mount Ida AR      66  82  70  83 /  30  30  20  20
Mountain Home AR  61  80  66  85 /  30  50  30  40
Newport AR        63  84  68  86 /  30  40  30  30
Pine Bluff AR     65  86  69  87 /  20  20  20  20
Russellville AR   64  83  69  84 /  30  40  30  30
Searcy AR         62  84  68  86 /  30  40  30  20
Stuttgart AR      65  85  70  87 /  30  30  20  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...53



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