Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 300517 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1217 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SEEN AT CENTRAL AND SRN SITES.
SOME ISOLATED SHRA COULD BE SEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS A
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

UPDATE...

GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A FREEZE WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND POSTED A
FREEZE WATCH. THIS ALSO WOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON...AND WANTED TO GET THE WORD OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. (46)

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

ALL SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMING
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND OVERLY PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT...BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND BETWEEN THEIR
CONSECUTIVE RUNS...THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED THIS
AFTERNOON.

EARLY MORNING FOG BURNED OFF QUICKLY IN MOST AREAS WITH SUNNY AND
MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND BY LATE THURSDAY...IT WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS NORTHWARD INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FLANKED BY DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION AND OFF THE WEST COAST. AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL
DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE OF FRIDAY.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WITH A SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT INCREASES
ENOUGH THAT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON. WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
MORNING AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY NEED FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY...AND ALLOW COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES...THE SETUP
COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     45  56  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         47  68  35  58 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       43  52  28  53 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  64  34  55 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  48  64  34  55 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     48  67  35  57 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      45  64  31  55 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  43  53  29  53 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        45  56  32  53 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     46  65  35  55 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   46  60  31  55 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         46  60  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      46  63  34  54 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.