Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 141135 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 4000
TO 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD
EVENING GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND 3 TO 6 MPH TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 70S TODAY.

ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...YIELDING SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE
AGAIN. HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE AND WED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MORE
IMPULSES OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE
THOUGH...BOTH WITH THE INCOMING FRONT ON MONDAY AND WITH
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION FROM PASSING DISTURBANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THOUGHT IT BEST TO STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FORECASTS. RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM IS
GIVING UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON THE OPPOSITE END SOME OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE IS GIVING
HIGHS AROUND 80. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S IN THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...WITH THE NOD TO
WED BEING THE WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS THE PERIOD ADVANCES...THE HIGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CREATE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL RIDE THE UPPER FLOW TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  57  79  62 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         78  63  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       74  58  76  59 /   0  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  62  82  66 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  62  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     78  63  86  68 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      77  59  81  64 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  58  77  60 /   0  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        73  57  78  63 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     77  62  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  61  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         75  59  80  64 /   0   0  20  20
STUTTGART AR      75  61  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46













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