Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 170621
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1221 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.AVIATION...17/06Z TAF CYCLE

Clouds will continue to overspread the state as a frontal system
that was sitting over the south, lifts slowly through the state.
Boundary is expected to be north of the state by Friday evening.
Southerly winds will continue to draw moisture across the terminals
with winds on the increase as low pressure moves into the central
plains by the end of the period. Wind shear around 40 knots is
expected off the surface later this morning over parts of NW AR.
Result will be combo of MVFR/VFR conditions. (56)
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 225 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017)
DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle remain the main convection is
expected late Friday and on Saturday as a more significant front
and upper dynamics move through the region. Will any strong to
severe storms develop with this system? Lighter rain chances
tonight and Friday. Dry and cooler behind the front over the
weekend. Then next week another weather system is forecat to
affect AR.

Currently have seen increasing overcast skies today across AR
spreading in from the west. The drier air has thinned clouds from
around KLIT and to the northeast. Overcast to the southwest, while
mostly sunny to the northeast. Only a few light showers have been
seen over southwest AR. The stalled frontal bounding was over NE
TX to northern LA, while upper northwest flow was in place over
the region. An east wind has kept highs cooler over NE AR, while
lower 60s in the south.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday

Overall partly to mostly cloudy skies will be seen the rest of
today and tonight, with a very low chance of rain over the
southwest. Forecast models do lift the stalled front back
northward tonight into Friday as a warm front, as moisture levels
increase and temperatures become milder. Rain chances will expand
over western AR with this boundary as it lifts northward on
Friday, but remain slight much of Friday. On Friday, as the front
lifts northward with warmer and more moist air behind it, land
some upper level short wave energy is seen in the upper zonal
flow, areas of light showers are forecast, especially over
western to northern AR. The cold front and much better lift are
seen with the system late Friday night and on Saturday, with
better chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. A marginal
risk of strong to severe storms may develop over NE AR and to the
NE as the upper system moves through, but uncertainty is present
on the amount of lift and instability present. This will be
monitored. Otherwise, milder temperatures will be seen Friday with
highs in the 60s to 70s, mild Saturday morning, then mild ahead
of the cold front on Saturday, cooling behind the system.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday

Long term begins with the precipitation at the end of the short term
already pushing through the state and across the Mississippi River
by Saturday night. The ECMWF is the slowest solution and does try to
keep some lingering rain chances in the east...however other models
disagree with this solution and with the front forecast to be well
east of the state will keep rain chances out of the forecast at this
time.

From Sunday through Tuesday night, models are generally in very good
agreement. Tuesday...the high pressure that was in control of our
weather for the first part of the week will begin to shift to the
east. Tuesday night, the models start to diverge and at this point
will lean more towards the ECMWF and the Canadian. Since mid day
yesterday, the GFS has just been too inconsistent to rely on.

Therefore, Tuesday evening we will see rain chances increase across
the state from the south as a surface low pressure and it`s
associated upper level trough sit just to the west of the state.
This low pressure will pass to the south of the state with rain
chances tapering off on Wednesday.

Temperatures will generally be below normal through much of the
long term with highs in the 50`s to lower 60`s with lows in the
30`s and lower 40`s.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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