Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 141132 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
632 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Main focus for the short term remains severe wx potential acrs
portions of AR later this aftn and evng. Recent MSAS analysis
depicted broad sfc low pressure moving acrs S/Ern KS/Nrn OK, w/ some
asctd elevated convection ongoing over S/Ern KS.

Based on 00Z suite of CAM guidance, do not plan to waiver much in
the messaging fm the last few fcsts. Thru the day today, low-lvl
Srly flow ahead of the approaching sfc low wl drive a strong regime
of WAA/moisture advection, w/ fcst temps in the upper 70s to low
80s, and a plume of sfc Td`s in the mid to upper 60s extending over
Srn to Cntrl AR. This should yield modest afternoon buoyancy
potential, w/ most guidance depicting ML buoyancy values of 2500-
3000 J/kg over much of the SPC D1 convective risk area. The greatest
overlap of vertical shear looks to remain over the N/Wrn half of the
state, at least prior to 00Z this evng.

Most CAM guidance has remained consistent on convective evolution
thru this aftn/evng, w/ initial warm sector discrete supercell
development over Ern to N/Ern OK b/w 18-21Z, ahead of an advancing
cdfrnt, situated fm S/W to N/E acrs Ern OK towards S/Wrn MO. As
developing supercells advance Ewrd into Wrn and N/Wrn AR later Thurs
aftn/evng, all severe hazards wl be possible including hail and some
sig hail (greater than two inches in size), damaging thunderstorm
winds, and possibly a few tornadoes, particularly for Wrn and N/Wrn
AR, where the greatest overlap of vertical shear and buoyancy is
expected to reside, at least prior to 00Z this evng.

Discrete storm modes are not fcst to persist as the evng
continues... Cold pool interactions/mergers and strong low-lvl
ascent invof the advancing cdfrnt should drive upscale growth into
more linear convective complexes, of which a few separate linear
segments may manifest. The large hail threat should begin to
decline, and a hazard transition to more widespread damaging winds
and QLCS tornadoes wl be noted as complexes approach Cntrl to
Ern and N/Ern AR, lkly after dark later tonight.

By 06Z tonight, rapidly diminishing buoyancy and sfc-based storm
potential should begin to hinder severe wx potential greatly, though
some local instances of strong to briefly severe storms wl lkly
persist as the remaining convective activity continues to advance
Ewrd overnight and into Fri mrng.

In addition to severe wx, locally heavy rainfall is expected w/
thunderstorm activity today and tonight, as portions of N/Wrn, Wrn,
Cntrl, and Ern AR is fcst to see b/w one to three inches of
rainfall, particularly where the strongest supercells track, and
where some local training may occur as storms become more linear,
resulting in some isolated flash flooding issues later today and
overnight tonight.

Fri and thru the remainder of the PD, the aforementioned cdfrnt wl
be moving thru the state from N/W to S/E thru the mrng and early
aftn. Any lingering convective activity from overnight wl quickly
depart towards the S/E, and drier and slightly cooler condns should
ensue acrs the FA thru the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

An upper low pressure system will be over the Desert Southwest to
begin the long term period with northwest flow over the eastern part
of the country. This upper low will remain stationary through
Tuesday. Once this upper low begins moving east on Wednesday,
southwest flow aloft will return to Arkansas.

Surface high pressure will be over the region early Saturday. A cold
front moves through the state late Saturday and early Sunday and
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to southern
Arkansas through Sunday morning. Canadian high pressure slowly drops
southward and builds over the state Monday through Wednesday. Sunday
night through Wednesday will be dry. This will bring cooler air
to the region given its origin. Below freezing temperatures will
be possible in the north Monday morning and Tuesday morning. Below
normal temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday then some
moderation is expected for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Mixed batch of MVFR/VFR condns were ongoing around the FA early
Thurs mrng... Low-cloud covg conts to incrs acrs the FA this mrng.

No real changes to note w/ this TAF update... MVFR condns are set
to prevail thru today as moisture streams in fm the south. Sctd
convection is still expected later this aftn/evng, moving into Wrn
and N/Wrn AR along an advancing cdfrnt. Have updated timing and
magnitude of thunder mentions at asctd terminals, w/ Cntrl
terminals now prevailing thunder at or near 00Z this evng.
Intermittent IFR condns and gusty variable winds wl be the main
impacts as convection moves thru terminal areas. Otherwise, gusty
Srly winds are expected to prevail thru the day, w/ sustained
readings of 10 to 15 kts, and higher gusts.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     78  59  65  44 /  40  80  30   0
Camden AR         80  62  70  50 /  30  90  70  20
Harrison AR       77  49  60  40 /  80  80  10   0
Hot Springs AR    79  59  69  46 /  40  90  50  10
Little Rock   AR  81  63  68  48 /  40  90  60  10
Monticello AR     79  66  70  51 /  20  90  90  20
Mount Ida AR      79  57  68  45 /  60  90  40  10
Mountain Home AR  79  52  62  40 /  70  80  10   0
Newport AR        78  59  66  44 /  30  90  40   0
Pine Bluff AR     79  63  69  48 /  30  90  80  10
Russellville AR   80  57  68  44 /  60  90  20   0
Searcy AR         78  59  66  44 /  40  90  50   0
Stuttgart AR      77  63  67  48 /  40  90  70  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...72


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