Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 251734 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1134 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING SOME INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
ALL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS FRONT TO YIELD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND CIGS IN THE
BKN040-060 RANGE AT NRN TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z-16Z WED
MORNING. HAVE THIS ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE TAFS WITH A PROB30 MENTION
AT KBPK...THE MOST LIKELY PLACE RELATIVELY SPEAKING TO SEE THE
-SHRA OR LOWER VFR CIGS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 13Z-16Z TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SOME
GUSTY WSW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE REGION...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WAS BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.  ATMOSPHERE IS
QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE TEENS IN THE
NORTH...20S CENTRAL...AND LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH. 12Z KLZK HAD A PRECIP
WATER VALUE OF ONLY 0.16 INCHES...WITH A NW LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS WERE SEEN OVER SE AR...AND WILL ADD A BIT TO THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL BE THINNING AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MAY
ADJUST TEMPS A DEGREE DOWN IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S NORTH TO THE 50 CENTRAL AND SOUTH...STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. (59)

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY. UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LONG
TERM. IT WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. THAT
IS BECAUSE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW COLD AIR. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY...AND WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE MONDAY. MORE CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SURROUND THE FRONT. THE PERIOD
WILL END WITH COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     48  33  53  30 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         57  36  63  35 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       46  33  50  28 /   0  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  35  59  33 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  34  59  32 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     55  35  62  34 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      53  35  59  32 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  46  33  51  28 /   0  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        48  33  54  30 /   0  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     54  35  60  33 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   51  34  55  31 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         50  33  57  31 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      52  34  59  32 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







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