Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281958
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
258 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN CONTINUED TODAY...AND THERE WILL
BE NO BIG CHANGES DURING THE NEAR TERM.

A BIG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE ROCKIES WILL EJECT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...AND WILL TEND
TO WEAKEN/FILL WITH TIME. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THERE WILL BE
RIDGING LOCALLY...NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT WILL HEAD THIS WAY
FROM THE WEST. RIDGING WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST...WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WISCONSIN TO TEXAS.

GIVEN AN APPROACHING FRONT...THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH ARKANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS...IT WILL BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE GIVEN THE TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
PRESENT.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN SHOULD EXIT AR BY AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT OF A SPEED-UP FROM EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGES.

COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT TEMP
CHANGES WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DRASTIC. FURTHERMORE...TEMPS WILL NOT
BE ANY COOLER THAN VALUES THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN SEPT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  86  60  86 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         64  87  65  88 /  10   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       59  83  58  82 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  86  64  86 /  10   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  64  87  63  88 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  87  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  85  62  85 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  85  59  84 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        60  86  58  87 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     63  87  63  88 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  87  62  86 /  10   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         62  86  61  87 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      62  86  61  88 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...28





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