Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 201143 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS/SOME LOW CLOUDS TODAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THIN
OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...MAINLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. WHERE FOG OCCURS...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL REFORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH TODAY...AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AS EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...RESIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH LATE WED
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THU. THE
RESULTING DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THU
WITH THE NEXT INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL WEST OF ARKANSAS BUT THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISHES IT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE STATE AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. JUST
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AND LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL
HAVE DRIVEN A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING
OUT...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING. THAT WILL LEAVE ARKANSAS IN A
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN.

THROUGH TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION...AND THAT WILL START A WARMING TREND. AT/ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  50  73  45 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  52  80  50 /  10  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       72  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  54  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  55  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     74  53  79  50 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      73  53  77  48 /  20  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        74  50  74  46 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     74  53  77  48 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  54  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         73  51  74  47 /  20  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      74  53  76  47 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46






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