Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 312350
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AROUND THE STATE THIS EVENING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOPING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPS. AT THIS POINT WAS NOT CONFIDENT LIFR FOG WOULD
DEVELOP...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST IT DOES REMAIN A CONCERN
SO WENT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS POINT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVERHEAD AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL MS/AL BORDER REGION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL UNTIL THIS FEATURE SHIFTS WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND AS SUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST.

DO NOT FEAR HOWEVER...MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE ON THEIR
WAY. A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE TRANSITION FROM
THE SHORT TERM TO LONG TERM PERIODS. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
CARVE OUT A HOME ACROSS THE WESTERN SEABOARD...RESULTING IN A
STEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...THE IMPENDING PATTERN CHANGE WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE
SUN AND MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA OF LATE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE PICTURE BUT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
COME THURSDAY THAT ITS IMPACTS WILL NOT BE FELT. ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE SCALE THAT A
BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED THIS AFTERNOON.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BUT IT QUICKLY OPEN UP AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST.
IN ITS WAKE...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DROP ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
CLOSE OFF WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA IN PREDOMINATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH A POSSIBLE RIPPLE OR TWO MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.

ENOUGH DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE SMALLER DETAILS CONCERNING ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR NOW BUT
ALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE IF SIGNALS STRENGTHEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  58  75  57 /  60  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         79  63  80  62 /  60  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       68  55  74  56 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  61  79  61 /  30  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  61  79  61 /  60  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     76  63  79  62 /  60  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  60  78  60 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  57  75  56 /  20  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        70  59  75  58 /  80  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  62  79  61 /  60  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  61  78  60 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         71  60  77  59 /  70  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      74  62  78  61 /  60  30  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




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