Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 260214 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
915 PM CDT WED MAY 2016


Overall forecast on track. Overnight convection chances will be
slight as little energy seen upstream, except over Central OK that
will push NE then gradually E. Even it stays together it would be
Thursday AM before it would effect northern to northeast AR. Areas
of fog will be seen overnight due to recent rains, especially in
clearing areas. Lows will be in the upper 60s to 70s. Models do
indicate some possible shortwave convection on Thursday, mainly over
west to northern AR. Late evening update will only fine tune a few
elements. (59)


.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 645 PM CDT WED MAY 2016/


Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen this evening and
overnight. All convection has moved out of AR this evening. Tonight
areas of lower ceilings and fog will form, bringing MVFR ceilings
and visibilities near TAF sites while isolated IFR will also be
possible. After sunrise on Thursday, any IFR or MVFR conditions will
gradually thin. Winds will be SW to SE at 5 to 10 mph or light and
variable this evening and overnight. (59)


.Prev Discussion.../ Issued315 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday Night

Have seen two separate areas of convection affect mainly nrn and
cntrl AR today...with the second now working acrs ERN AR. Sctd
SHRA/TSRA has formed acrs SRN AR this aftn thanks to peak heating
and residual outflow bndry interaction in a more unstable
environment. area of subsidence ovr NWRN AR allowed
skies to bcm partly cloudy this aftn...with some recovery in temps.
Plan to make a last minute call regarding POPs this evening based on
radar trends.

Models cont to have issues with short term convective trends...esp
when dealing with smaller scale features. The latest runs fm the
various rapid update model data suggest that much of the FA wl not
see much in the way of additional SHRA/TSRA later tngt into Thu plan just to keep mainly slgt chc POPs in the fcst.

Rain chcs wl begin to incrs once again later Thu and contg Thu ngt
as a new upr lvl storm sys moves into the SWRN states. Several
impulses wl eject NEWD fm the parent low...bringing several rounds
of convection to the FA by Thu ngt and contg into the start of the
Long Term. While not a significant concert attm...wl cont to monitor
rainfall amts in the new few days for the incrsd flash flood
potential acrs parts of the area.

.Long Term...Friday Through Wednesday

Overall not planning a whole lot of changes to the extended term
forecast. Shortwave moving out of the southwestern US still on track
to lift into the central Plains through the weekend, resulting in
greatest rainfall chances across the area on Friday. By Saturday
night rain chances start dropping off markedly as a bit of shortwave
ridging occurs through Sunday night. However with southwesterly flow
aloft, several impulses will start to track across the area again by
Monday night thru the end of the extended term, so I will broadbrush
POPs thru those period.

At the surface, high pressure will remain east of the area during
much of the period, keeping a moist southerly flow in place across
the region. With the southwesterly flow aloft, any cooler air masses
dropping down thru the Plains won`t be able to push this far

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


Short Term...44 / Long Term...53 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.