Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 201919
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
219 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AS SUSPECTED...THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW HAVE SHOWN UP IN THE SOUTHEAST
AS WELL. STILL...MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL AS THEY SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE ISOLD AND SMALL IN NATURE.

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DOWN THROUGH SE
NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE ARKANSAS
BORDER BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT PERSISTING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN DYING OFF
RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT IS SET TO ENTER THE STATE. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE TOMORROW MORNING...THEN
20-30 POPS IN THE SOUTH AS DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT SPARK UP MORE CONVECTION. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
WANES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THAT IS THE CASE BUT AS MENTIONED
DID GO AHEAD AND LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE
NORTH.

STUCK WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR SUNDAY. FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY THAT MOST PLACES IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL SEE THEIR HIGHS DURING THE
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. NRN COUNTIES WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY. CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AND LAGGING INFLUX OF COOLER AIR
MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THEM TO SEE BRIEF SPIKES IN TEMPS LATE IN
THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY HOWEVER WILL SEE THEIR
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...BUT WILL ALSO BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S UP NORTH TO AROUND 80 IN THE WARMER
AREAS IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S AS
WELL...PRODUCING OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL A DRY AND COOL FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE THEIR INFLUENCE WILL STILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR ARKANSAS. AN EAST TO GRADUAL E TO SE FLOW WILL BE
OVER ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND...RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND SYSTEM TO MAKE IT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID
WEEK...BUT WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S...ITS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOWED AND ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE LIMITED
FOR ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH SOME
MODERATION LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  87  56  76 /  20  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         67  92  65  82 /   0  30  20   0
HARRISON AR       66  82  52  75 /  20  20   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  89  62  79 /  10  30  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  91  62  79 /  10  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  92  64  81 /   0  30  20   0
MOUNT IDA AR      66  89  59  79 /  10  30  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  67  84  54  76 /  20  20   0   0
NEWPORT AR        68  86  56  76 /  10  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     68  91  62  79 /   0  30  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  89  58  80 /  10  20   0   0
SEARCY AR         68  89  59  78 /  10  20   0   0
STUTTGART AR      69  90  59  77 /   0  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...59







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