Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 261554 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1100 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016
Overall forecast on track. Update to remove fog wording and adjust a
bit slower movement of convection into northwest AR and northern AR.
Timing of convection will be late morning to early afternoon in
northwest AR, while the rest of the northern half of AR will be late
afternoon to more in the evening. Only a marginal risk of strong to
severe storms remains the forecast and all model trends agree with
this. The best chance of a severe storms appear to be over eastern
OK to the south to near the Red River. Mostly over AR trends have
the convection gradually weakening as the upper support shears to
the northeast with the upper low pressure and dynamics remain weak.
Also hence lower rain amounts are forecast. Clouds will increase over
the state with the convection, while highs today will reach the 70s
in most locals, while some around 80 to the lower 80s in parts of
central to the south. Late morning update will again fine tune
convection chances and temperatures. (59)
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 653 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016/
Patchy fog noted acrs the FA this mrng wl produce MVFR conds for
a few more hrs. Pds of lower conds arnd sunrise can be expected...
mainly arnd KPBF and KADF. VFR conds wl prevail thereafter for
much of the PD. Ongoing convection to the NW of AR is expected to
affect NRN and WRN AR later today...with VCTS mentioned in these
areas. Model data cont to suggest an overall weakening trend as
the activity works further EWD over time. /44/
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday Night
Patchy fog noted acrs the FA early this mrng...thanks to lgt winds
and partly cloudy skies. Closest convection was noted over SERN
KS...assocd with an upr trof tracking EWD.
The aforementioned upr trof wl cont to slide EWD today. An assocd
sfc bndry wl eventually work into NRN AR late today and tngt before
dissipating. Sctd SHRA/TSRA wl accompany this feature...mainly
affecting the NRN half of the FA later today and tngt. With much of
the upr support staying to our N...contd to keep highest POPS acrs
NRN AR. QPF amts wl not be very impressive...with most areas seeing
less than 1/10 of an inch. Some locations in the N could apch 1/4 of
an inch of rainfall.
Heading into Thu...high pressure aloft wl begin to bld back EWD into
the Srn Plains and Mid-South. This wl result in a return to dry and
warm conds ovr the FA.
Long Term...Friday through Tuesday
Fairly quiet weather conditions expected to persist through much of
the long term period for Arkansas with abnormally dry to drought
like conditions expected to persist or worsen in many areas.
Surface high pressure will be in place across much of the southeast
United States providing a decent swrly flow over the state, keeping
dewpoints in the 50s and 60s.
The upper level pattern will be fairly stagnant over the southern
United States as an H500 ridge remains from the four corners area
through much of the SE. This will help to influence continued dry
weather and temperatures well above normal for this time of year.
There is some indication that a front will approach Arkansas from
the west late in the period. There is much uncertainty with this
feature and any potential rain chances associated with it.