Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 270823
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
322 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN MAINTAINING
THE HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO BEFORE SOME CHANGES COMMENCE. AS SUCH...WILL BLEND AVAILABLE
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING
THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH NOT TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO MOST PARTS OF THE STATE WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING A STRIP FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE METRO AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE POOLED. CUMULUS
FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW.
THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AND PREVENT ANY HEAT
RELATED HEADLINES. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S OR A LITTLE
HIGHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WARRANT AN SPS THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BUT WILL STILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

THE WILD CARD IN ALL THIS IS A WEAK UPPER LOW THAT MOVES WESTWARD
ALONG THE GULF COAST. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF THIS BECOMING
A TROPICAL SYSTEM...IT MAY INTRODUCE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MIX.
WILL DOWNPLAY THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT DEFINITELY KEEP A WARY EYE ON
IT OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL
AVERAGE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. OVERALL THE
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS USUAL THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE
LONG TERM HOWEVER THEY ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
WILL BE RATHER ZONAL WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SRN TIER
STATES...AND POSSIBLY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
TIER AT SOME POINT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE RESULTING LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER ARKANSAS WILL BE OF THE SOUTHERLY NATURE YIELDING
MUGGY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW OVERALL BUT DID LEAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION WILL STILL BE IN
THE REGION. SUSPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EAST BUT LEFT CHANCE
POPS IN MOST EVERYWHERE TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN MODEL
TIMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ROUND OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     95  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         96  69  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       93  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  69  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     94  69  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      94  69  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  70  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        94  71  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     95  70  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   96  70  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         95  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      93  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64




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