Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 121745
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1145 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.AVIATION...
Cold front has passed the area and northwest winds continue over
the state. The winds will be slow to taper off this afternoon and
should stay up more so in the north through the night. Clear skies
are over much of the area. Low clouds will hang around in the
southeast corner for several hours with MVFR conditions. The rest
of the period will be VFR in all areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 555 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018)
DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Flight categories should make significant improvement in the first
4-6 hours of the 12z TAF period, with VFR conditions returning to
all sites by midday. Will maintain some mention of snow or sleet
at KPBF and KLLQ through 14z-15z as precipitation is in the
vicinity. Otherwise dry conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will remain gusty from the NNW through mid afternoon
before relaxing to 8kt or less at all sites this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

Radar trends indicate a weakening trend ongoing across south
Arkansas where the center of the upper trough is now passing
through. By mid morning the trough axis will be east of our
forecast area and precipitation should rapidly come to an end.
However, light to moderate precipitation will continue across
southern Arkansas mainly in the form of sleet and snow.
Additional accumulations of up to half an inch will be possible
through shortly after daybreak. The winter weather advisory was
expanded across southern parts of the state to account for precip
trends during the overnight hours.

For the remainder of the day, cold air will continue to rush into
the state. Brisk NNW winds will be the norm through about midday
before they start to relax. Temperatures today are tricky. Most
guidance continues to warm much of the forecast area back above
forecast. However, this could be too optimistic, especially in
those places that receive a decent amount of sleet and/or freezing
rain. Forecast highs in the northeast and, now, in the south
central and southeast parts of the state may wind up being too
warm.

The rest of the short term period is relatively straight forward
and easy. Northerly winds will continue to pump cold air in from
the north as high pressure is anchored over the upper midwest. Lows
tonight and Saturday night will be squarely in the 20s, with
highs ranging from around 30 in the north and northeast to around
40 in the southwest.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Medium range models remain in decent agreement with no one solution
preferred over another. As such, a blend of forecast solutions seems
prudent this morning.

Pattern initiates with upper level ridge over the western conus with
subsequent downstream toughing over the eastern part of the nation.
On the surface, arctic high pressure will be sliding off to the east
keeping temperatures below normal.

A weak upper level disturbance caught in the prevailing flow will
move through the north Sunday but only clouds will mark its passage.
A flurry or two can not be discounted but not enough to mention at
this time.

As this high moves out, it will be promptly followed by another
front and another Arctic high. Moisture will be limited around the
front, but did keep small chances of light snow Monday night and
early Tuesday. This should not amount to much.

Dry/cold weather will return Wednesday and much of Thursday. As the
latter high settles over the southeast states, return flow will
start bringing moisture into the region Thursday / Thursday night.
This could result in a light wintry mix.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until noon CST today FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.

&&

$$


Aviation...51



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