Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 181713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1213 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Again expect widely scattered areas of MVFR visibilities due to
fog between 10z and 14z across central and southwest sections. A
south-southeast surface wind of <=7kts will prevail across all
sites during this period.



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017)

Mostly VFR flight conditions will be seen over the next 24 hours.
Patchy fog may form early this morning near bodies of water, but
will dissipate after sunrise. Winds will be light and variable to
light southeast to start, then become southeast at 5 to 10 mph
except some gusts over northwest AR to 15 to near 20 mph. Winds will
lower again after sunset Wednesday. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 313 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are low in the short term,
with a dry forecast and warming trend. Fire weather concerns
continue with continued overall dry weather for several weeks and
low amounts of rain. The AR Forestry Commission has a moderate to
high wildfire danger over AR with several burn bans in counties. Some
chance of rain will be in the forecast over the weekend to early
next week with a possible weather system affecting the region.

Currently, surface high pressure is the main feature over the
region, while aloft some upper high pressure ridge was also near
the region. This has kept the dry weather conditions, with cooler
than normal weather. Skies were clear this morning with
temperatures in the 40s to some 50s. A dry atmosphere was also
over AR, with dew point temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
The 00z KLZK sounding had a precip water value of less than half
an inch. Light and variable to light southeast winds were seen
over the area.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

The forecast will stay dry in the short term with overall high
pressure the main influence over the region. Minimum relative
humidity values today will be in the 30s to 40s percent. Moisture
levels will gradually increase the next few days with a south
wind flow into AR, and dew point temperatures will reach the 50s
by Friday. Aloft, the pattern will show an upper high pressure
ridge to build into the region Thursday to Friday. This will help
warm temperatures to above normal values. Wildfire concerns will

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

An upper ridge will be shifting east at the start of the long term
period...with SW flow aloft increasing over the region. Moisture
levels will begin to increase as a result. By upper level
shortwave trough will move east across the Plains...with a cold
front moving into Arkansas from the NW on Sun. The potential for
SHRA/TSRA will increase into the high chance to likely category for
Sun as the front traverses the state...being the best chances for
precip for the entire forecast.

Beyond Sun...the forecast becomes more uncertain as med range model
guidance solutions diverge. The ECMWF is the more progressive...with
the front and upper trough exiting the state by early Mon.
However...the GFS closes off an upper low to the south of the
state...with the front slowing over AR. The storm system doesn`t
exit the region until Tue according to this solution. Have leaned
towards the ECMWF solution...though keep some chances for precip
lingering into Mon night as a blend of the ECMWF/GFS. The GFS would
result in a wetter setup for the Natural State...which would be
somewhat welcome for some areas with a current rainfall deficit.

By the end of the forecast...more certainty exists in the overall
pattern. Drier and cooler conditions will be seen as high pressure
moves into the region as a strong upper trough dives SE into over


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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