Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 250241 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
840 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017


The cold front has pushed out of the state, and developed convection
over western MS an parts east. Elevated west to northwest winds of
10 to 15 mph with some gusts has been seen. Closer to the surface
low pressure system, some clouds were seen spreading into far
northern AR. Some ceilings will be possible tonight. Temperatures
were quickly cooling over northern AR and were in the 40s at 830 pm.
Lows tonight will drop to the 30s and 40s across the state. Late
evening update will fine tune clouds, temperatures and winds. (59)


.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 555 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours. A
cold front is developing elevated winds from the northwest and winds
will be 10 to 20 mph this evening as it moves through the state,
lowering to 5 to 15 mph overnight. VFR is forecast for Saturday with
northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph. (59)


.Short Term Discussion...

A cold front will gradually move through AR this evening, and
develop isolated showers. Most locations will see no rain. Also
behind the front, winds will be elevated at 10 to 20 mph this
evening, then lower tonight. Cold temperatures will be seen tonight
with 30s over much of the state, with some 20s over the north. Some
locations will see a freeze over the north and extra precautions
should be taken. The surface high pressure will settle into AR on
Saturday, with mostly sunny skies, while cooler highs in the 50s. On
Saturday, an elevated wild fire danger will also be seen. By
Saturday night, the surface high will be centered over north central
Arkansas. As a result winds will be quite light which will help
temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s over most of the
forecast area.

As the high moves into the southern Appalachians on Sunday, winds
will shift to the south bringing a return of moisture into the
region. As a result, a few showers will be possible Sunday
afternoon over western sections of the state. With the south
winds, temperatures will be a little warmer with highs from the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Thursday Night

Zonal flow will be over the central and southern U.S. to begin the
long term period. An upper low will enter the Pacific Northwest
Sunday and move into the Rockies by Tuesday, sweeping into the Great
Lakes and Southern Plains Wednesday. On Thursday, an upper ridge
will be over the west, providing northwest flow to the central U.S.

Surface high pressure will move off to the east Sunday. This will
allow warm and moist flow to return to the area. Low pressure will
move out of Texas Sunday night and Monday will bring increasing
chances of showers. This low will drag a warm front across the state
Monday night. Tuesday night and early Wednesday a cold front moves
through the state to continue chances of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure and dry air move in behind the front Thursday.

A warming trend will begin on Sunday and continue through Tuesday.
High temperatures by Tuesday will be in the 70s. Cooler temperatures
will arrive behind the cold front on Wednesday.


.Fire Weather...
An elevated wild fire danger will be seen on Saturday, due to
elevated northwest winds, lowering afternoon humidities and
continued dry fuels. The AR Forestry Commission has all of AR in a
moderate wild fire danger. Extra caution should be used if burning
on Saturday.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

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