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000
FXUS64 KLZK 231137 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
637 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the period. The
exception to that will be some fog at KBPK through 14z or
thereabouts. Also expect to see isolated showers and thunderstorms
across portions of southern Arkansas this afternoon. Coverage
should be sparse enough to preclude mentioning in TAFs at this
time however.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

It should be a warm day across the forecast area today as an upper
ridge reaches peak strength before gradually ceding control to an
approaching plains trough later in the weekend. Highs today will
once again be some 5-10 degrees above normal as a result, with most
places reaching the lower 90s. Highs in the upper 80s will be seen
at higher elevations. Despite waning strength, temperatures will be
similar on Saturday though slightly cooler, most notably so in the
higher terrain.

While rain chances will in large part remain negligible, high
resolution models do indicate the possibility for some isolated
afternoon showers and thunderstorms across southern Arkansas later
today. The evening shift last night threw in some 15-20 PoPs across
the south to account for this and see no reason to change that at
this time. Better rain chances will begin to creep into western
Arkansas late Saturday night as the trough draws near.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

A period of unsettled wx wl start over much of AR starting Sun as a
slow movg CDFNT apchs from the Plains States. A deepening upr trof
wl track sloly EWD acrs the NRN tier of the nation. The persistent
upr rdg wl weaken and allow the fntl bndry to work into AR. With the
main upr support staying N of the area...kept rain chcs in the CHC
category along and ahead of the fnt.

Models cont to indc that a weak upr low wl form ovr the SWRN U.S.
which may tend to slow down the fntl bndry Mon/Tue...keeping
lingering rain chcs in the fcst. The ECMWF solution has been more
consistent with this trend...compared to the faster GFS. Similar to
the last few days...wl cont to use a blend of the two solutions for
this fcst.

Daytime highs wl trend lower thru the pd due to incrsd clouds/rain
chcs...as well as cooler airmass working into behind the CDFNT. Much
drier air will eventually work into the entire FA by the middle of
next week as the front clears AR and high pres blds into the
region.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...64