Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 142001
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
300 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Another active day in the rain dept acrs much of AR today. The
latest round of precip has been lifting NEWD thru the FA since this
mrng and was now working into NRN and ERN AR. 12Z LZK sounding had a
PW value of 2.02 inches, which is needless to say well abv average.
The end result has been some rather impressive rainfall amts today
in some locations. Here at the WFO, we have already exceeded the
daily record rainfall for the date.

The persistent front was finally showing signs of working back NWD
thru the FA. As of early this aftn, this ill-defined feature was
over the NRN half of the state. Hi-Res model data cont to show that
the ongoing convection wl diminish in areal coverage into early this
evening, and bcm more SCTD. Another upr impulse is fcst to affect
the area later tngt into Tue, with another round of convection fcst
to dvlp, affecting mainly part of central/nern AR. Have adjusted
POPs to account for this activity.

Heading into Wed, upper heights are fcst to incrs ovr the Mid-South
as the aforementioned FNT finally departs the region. This wl allow
for a brief respite in rainfall. South winds are also fcst to
return, allowing temps to return to more seasonable lvls to compared
of late. Did trend highs Wed a few degrees lower than MOS guidance
as soils wl be fairly wet over much of the FA due to the recent
rains.
&&

.LONG TERM....Wednesday Night through Monday

Rain chances will increase once again heading into the long term as
the upper ridge flattens out and a front approaches northwest
Arkansas. At least at this point the models are bringing the front
through the state but looks to be weak with little moisture to
interact keeping QPF on the low side. Upper trough will swing
through by late in the weekend with rain chances expected to taper
off by early next week. Temps will be hovering in the upper 80s to
mid 90s through the second half of the week which is close to
seasonal averages.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...44 / Long Term...61


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