895
FXUS64 KLZK 102337
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
637 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Latest objective surface analysis indicates MUCAPE values over
2000 j/kg across the forecast area, with values over 4000 centered
along the river valley. Despite the energy to support convection,
forcing for initiation is very weak and small scale in nature.
Only isolated cells were noted as of 19z. Any additional cells
that do form will dissipate by 01z.

Similar conditions are expected to develop on Friday, with
eastern sections favored for single cell development.

On Sunday, a weak cold front will approach the forecast area from
the north.  This feature is not expected to reach far into the
forecast area, However, the feature will be close enough to provide
adequate forcing to support convective development, especially
across northern sections.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Expect an upper level high to expand from the southern plains,
through the mid south to the mid Atlantic region during this
period. Very warm conditions are expected during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

For the 00Z TAFs...VFR conditions are generally expected at all
area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms driven
primarily by the peak heating hours of the day may approach TAF
sites tomorrow afternoon, however the probability is too low to
include a change group at this time. Otherwise expect winds to
veer a bit towards the southwest tomorrow while generally
remaining below 10 kts.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  94  74  94 /   0  20  10  30
Camden AR         73  96  74  95 /  10  10   0  10
Harrison AR       71  92  72  89 /   0  10  10  50
Hot Springs AR    74  97  74  96 /  10  10   0  20
Little Rock   AR  76  94  75  95 /  10  20   0  20
Monticello AR     74  94  75  95 /  10  20  10  10
Mount Ida AR      73  94  73  94 /  10  10   0  20
Mountain Home AR  71  92  71  91 /   0  20  10  50
Newport AR        74  95  73  95 /   0  20   0  20
Pine Bluff AR     73  94  74  95 /  10  20  10  10
Russellville AR   74  95  73  94 /  10  10   0  20
Searcy AR         73  94  73  94 /  10  20   0  20
Stuttgart AR      75  94  75  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ121-130-137-230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...66