Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211139
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
639 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...21/12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS WL BE WIDESPREAD ACRS THE FA THRU MUCH OF THE MRNG. THE
NRN EDGE OF ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACRS SRN AR COULD BRIEFLY
AFFECT THE SRN TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PD...WITH VCSH MENTIONED
ATTM. PRECIP WL CONT TO SHIFT SLOLY SWD AS THE MRNG PROGRESSES.
LOW CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY ERODE HEADING INTO THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR
CONTS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

INITIALLY UPDATED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TREND TOWARDS
THE HRRR WHICH SHOWS PRECIPITATION CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH.

CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS AND GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. AT THIS
POINT..TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY ALLOWING A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DEEP AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY LATE SATURDAY.
BEGAN TO TREND DEWPOINTS UP AT THIS POINT WITH RAW MODELS SUGGESTING
70 PLUS DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.

AT THIS POINT THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS.

RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND LIMITED TO WESTERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL CHANCES AND
QPF INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE. WESTERN ARKANSAS HAS BEEN FAIRLY HARD HIT IN THE PAST FEW
WEEKS WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE PROBLEMATIC. THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT...BUT BEARS
WATCHING IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST AS THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS
CONT TO INDC AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN ACRS THE MID SOUTH. A
PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING SEVERAL UPR LVL IMPULSES
NEWD THRU AR. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE TO PRODUCE GOOD CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA. WITH SOILS ALREADY QUITE
SATURATED...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WL ONLY ENHANCE THE CHCS OF
ADDITIONAL FLOODING OVR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SOME OF THE MODELS DO INDC THAT THE UPR PATTERN WL DE-AMPLIFY OVR
THE SRN STATES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WL RESULT
IN DRIER CONDS FOR THE FA.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




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