Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 300948
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
348 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
09z subjective surface analysis indicated the cold front extended
from Blythville, to Hot Springs, to El Dorado.  As the front
continues eastward. drier conditions will continue filter through
the state through the rest of the early morning hours.

Surface hIgh pressure will become centered across the Arkansas and
Louisana border by Thursday morning. Seasonal temperatures are
expected during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
The pd wl start off dry with sfc high pres shifting E of the FA.
Heading into the upcoming weekend, unsettled conds wl return to the
region. An upper lvl trof is fcst to drop into the SWRN U.S. and
eventually bcm cutoff ovr NRN Mexico. The resulting SWLY flow aloft
wl bring a series of upr lvl impulses acrs the Mid-South. These
features wl interact with incrsg low lvl moisture to produce periods
of rain starting on Sat and contg thru much of Sun. Low lvl temps
profiles fm 30/00z are a ltl warmer ovr NRN AR, so have removed the
mention of any wintry mix.

There rmn some timing differences between the various model
solutions regarding the aforementioned upr low lifting NEWD into the
SRN Plains late in the weekend. The ECMWF is the fastest, with the
GFS the slowest and the GEM in between. Opted to stay the course and
trend toward the GFS/GEM solutions with a dcrs in rain chcs late Sun
into Mon, as the assocd SFC low tracks further SE of the FA compared
to the ECMWF.

For the remainder of Mon and Tue, the GFS and ECMWF go their
separate ways. The Euro builds sfc high pres into the region while
the GFS dvlps a new storm sys and tracks it to our S, along the Gulf
Coast, with another round of rain for much of the FA. Opted to keep
POPS in later Mon into Tue, closer to the GFS solution for
consistency. Temps wl generally rmn a bit below seasonal norms for
much of the PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     53  33  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         58  32  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       49  31  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    54  33  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  55  34  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     58  35  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      53  31  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  49  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        54  33  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     56  34  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   52  30  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         54  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      56  34  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...44



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