Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 222324 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Upper low will drop across north central/northeast Arkansas
tonight, then pick up speed early Sunday morning, with clouds
clearing out during the day. Until then, expect light rain or
drizzle (VCSH in the terminals) to be possible through the late
night hours. Right now, conditions vary from IFR in the north and
south, to MVFR in the west, to VFR in the central. Over all,
conditions will lower a bit early on Sunday morning, before the
low clears out and the gradient picks up. Winds will stay elevated
through the period, increasing after sunrise. All areas expected
to be VFR by late morning or early afternoon.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 238 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are first period chances of
light rain and cooler temperatures. Then dry and cool weather
Sunday and into early next week. A warming trend will be seen
through the week, with the next chance of rain mid-week to the end
of the week.

The scattered light showers continue to move east as the upper
system and surface low pressure and cold front move across the
region. Have seen mainly light showers or light rain over
northern, central and eastern AR, with some convection over far
southeast AR. Coverage has been low as well as rain amounts. Do
expect these systems to continue to slowly move east the rest of
today and tonight. Some wrap around light showers have been seen
over northern AR. Models are slow to move the entire upper system
far enough out of AR where no rain would be seen, so will have to
carry a slight chance of light shower or just sprinkles over
northern to eastern AR into the evening and possibly into the
overnight. The northwest to north surface wind flow has brought
much cooler temperatures to AR, and temperatures have only reached
the 50s to 60s over most areas.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday Night

Forecast will have a slight chance of light rain or showers over
mainly northern to eastern areas. Clouds will hold the rest of the
evening, and even much of the state overnight, but finally thin
from west to central, then the latest in eastern areas on Sunday.
Lows tonight will be from the 40s and 50s. Sunday will start
mostly cloudy, dry with cool temperatures, while the clouds will
slowly thin from west to east through the day. Highs will be in
the 60s to 70s with a bit cool wind flow from the north. Clearing
skies Sunday night with again cooler temperatures with highs in
the 70s. Continued dry into Tuesday with warming temperatures.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

Tuesday will be a transition day with a return to southerly flow
and the next frontal system to encroach on the midsouth. Showers
and thunderstorms still look good for Wednesday with best chances
across the Northern half of Arkansas along and ahead of the
boundary. There will be very little recovery time before the next
system moves into the region threatening Arkansas by the weekend.
Models are showing more moisture than previous runs, with the
threat of flash/river flooding a possibility with anywhere from
three to six inches possible. A lot could change in a week, with
the main point being that we will be heading into an active period
and in track of several rounds of potentially heavy rainfall over
the next 4-8 days.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...57



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