Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 251828
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
128 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION RECENTLY
HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LA GULF COAST IS
ALSO AIDING IN ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS A RESULT...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. SHOULD SEE THINGS WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SVR IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY PULSE UP TO STRONG TO SVR LEVELS
BRIEFLY...WITH SOME STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.

A SIMILAR STORY WILL BE SEEN ON TUE...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES WEST OVER
THE AREA. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PRECIP
POTENTIAL. WILL LIKELY NOT EXTEND THE HEAT ADV FOR TUE AS OVERALL
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPOTS COULD STILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES CREST 105 FOR AN HR OR TWO
ON TUE.

WILL SEE CONTINUED...ALBEIT GRADUAL...WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE STATE INTO THU...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY STAYING AT OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW AS WELL...THOUGH WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION.

BY LATE THIS WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT REMAINS WILL SHIFT
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP...AS WELL AS EVEN ALLOWING TEMPS TO POSSIBLY
STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE STATE...THE CHANCES FOR A STRONGER SURGE OF DRIER...AND COOLER
AIR DOES NOT LOOK VERY GOOD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  95  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         75  93  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       72  96  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  93  74  93 /  20  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  94  74  94 /  20  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     75  92  71  94 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      74  92  72  93 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  98  72  96 /  20  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        74  94  72  94 /  30  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  93  71  94 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  95  74  95 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         75  94  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      75  92  73  93 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

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