Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 280118 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
820 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH AR THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND MOISTURE AND HEAT GRADIENT...WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 AND DEW
POINT TEMPS AROUND 80. BEHIND THIS VERY ISOLATED AND WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING QUICKLY INTO THE 70S THEN
60S...WHILE TEMPS INTO THE 80S. WILL SEE THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE
BEEN FROM SALINE COUNTY WSW TO POLK COUNTY. MAINLY A WIND EVENT WITH
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR LIT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN LLQ TOWARD MONDAY SUNRISE. LATE EVENING
UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE POP CHANCES...TEMPS...DEW POINTS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE SHRA/POTENTIAL
TSRA EFFECTING A TAF SITE...AND HAVE LEFT AS VCSH FOR NOW AND WILL
AMEND IF NEEDED. WHILE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED...THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CONCERN FOR SHRA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AS WE SPEAK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. HOWEVER...OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AT BEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. BY LATE TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING DOWN IN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS/
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS WILL HOLD TRUE PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COOL
AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAINFALL ACT TO SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE NORTH AND WEST MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S THAT DAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ARKANSAS.

THURSDAY A FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE SOME OVERRUNNING COULD TAKE PLACE AND WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP. KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...DISSIPATING INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP NEXT WEEKEND DRY AT THIS TIME AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






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