Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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279
FXUS64 KLZK 102321 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
521 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE STATE. AS THIS LOW DEPARTS THE STATE ON THU...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS TO BE SEEN THU AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED AT 20Z FROM NEAR
COLUMBUS NE...TO GOODLAND KS...WILL APPROACH QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE IN THE MORNING. THE MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY GO BELOW NORMAL...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. PUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY IN THE
OZARKS...WITH RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN DRY AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY
AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED.

DATA IS SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.
KEPT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE OZARKS SUNDAY EVENING...AND THEN
DRYING OUT. HAVE RAIN GOING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.

THE SYSTEM PROVIDING THE MOISTURE WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO FINISH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     26  44  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         40  64  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       28  46  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    38  58  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  52  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     38  61  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      38  60  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  26  45  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        26  45  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     35  54  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         27  46  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      33  50  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62



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