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000
FXUS64 KLZK 121053 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
553 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

BREEZY NW TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH WINDS OF 12 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED...AND GUSTS OVER 25
TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THIS MORNING...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
SEEN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH SOME MORNING CIGS FROM 3 TO 5 KFT. THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MOST CIGS TO LIFT...WITH JUST SOME FEW TO SCT
CLOUD LAYERS. WINDS WILL LESSEN BY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND SW BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY BEHIND IT. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN
BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
TEMPERATURES ARE AT THIS HOUR...WITH 40S IN THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR
60 SOUTHEAST.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN...AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S IN MUCH
OF THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SET UP ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING
BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO ARKANSAS BY THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ALONG THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE
SWRN CONUS...WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER THE REGION. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE STATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF SUN. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST SUN
NIGHT AND FOR MON...WITH COOLER AIR MOVING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY...BUT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW COOL OR MILD IT WILL
BE ACROSS THE STATE AS GFS KEEPS COLDER CONDITIONS WITH STRONGER SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO THE SW MORE RAPIDLY WITH
THE ECMWF...WITH SRLY FLOW DEVELOPING EARLIER ACROSS THE
REGION...WARMING TEMPS FOR AR. AS A RESULT...KEEP TEMPS AROUND
NORMAL FOR NEXT TUE AS THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO VARY MUCH AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     52  31  60  39 /  10   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         58  34  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       48  33  61  39 /  10   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    57  34  62  38 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  56  32  62  38 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     59  35  60  38 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      56  34  61  36 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  31  60  39 /  10   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        51  31  58  41 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     56  34  60  38 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   57  32  63  35 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         53  32  58  38 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      54  33  58  40 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62