Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 172356

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
656 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017


High pressure continues over Arkansas with a cold front just to
the north of the state. Showers are more numerous across the north
and should continue into the evening. Showers in the south will
dissipate near sunset. Some patchy fog is expected across the area tonight.
Expect VFR to IFR conditions tonight.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night
Regional mosaic radar showing persistent frontal convection
across northern AR with more sparse, diurnally-driven convection
across the southern quarter of the state. In between, only seeing
occasionally scattered cumulus and warm temperatures in the 80s
and low 90s. Model guidance has struggled to resolve highest PoPs
today when compared to radar, so tweaked blended guidance to more
closely follow trends. Upper ridge across the Gulf states will
keep the front from making significant headway into the area, so
confident highest chance of rain and thunder will remain across
the northern tier or two of counties through the rest of today.
Did taper PoPs overnight with more or less a repeat performance
Monday, only with more diurnal convection possible across south
and south-central AR. Increasing cloud cover coupled with precip
may also knock back high temps a bit to start the week, especially
north, but no significant cooling is anticipated through the
period with the front remaining to our north.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday
Longwave ridge will mangle itself mid to late week, as the upper
flow on the west side of Tropical Cyclone Jose develops a trough and
possibly an upper low over the southeastern conus. This should
persist into the weekend, and the low will eventually move southward
and get absorbed into Maria. Depending on which model solution
you buy in to, the ridge may attempt to reassert itself, but it
doesn`t look like this would last long if it happens.

So, even though there will be lack of a large scale surface-based
forcing mechanism, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
to be possible, as upper level dynamics come into play and daytime
heating interacts with any mesoscale features.

You know the drill...temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages as surface flow largely remains out of the south. That
being said, with the potential upper low present, more cloud cover
may come into play, and this would keep daytime maximums down. So,
the temperature forecast, at best, is a low-confidence one.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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