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000
FXUS64 KLZK 260317
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
917 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS DURING
THE NIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TO NORTH SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

AVIATION...

THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT KPBF AND KLLQ. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER SOUTHERN AR AND THE SNOW END...BUT THEN
BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SET IN. OVER NORTHERN
AR VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN. CENTRAL AREAS WILL START VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME ALL VFR THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...MOST TAF
SITES WILL BECOME MVFR WITH CEILINGS WITH SOME FOG FORMING. A WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO AR LATE NIGHT...BRINGING
SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES...AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW
WITH SOME ELEVATED WINDS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...WITH A BAND
CURRENTLY FROM FORDYCE...TO PINE BLUFF...TO DE WITT PRODUCING
SNOWFALL RATES OF ALMOST 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS AS OF 230 PM WERE 5.5 INCHES AT FORDYCE...WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES
AT MURFREESBORO...NEAR SHERIDAN...AND NEAR PINE BLUFF. COULD SEE ONE
TO TWO MORE INCHES THROUGH 6 PM...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE AFTER
SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO AVOID CONFUSION...AND
TO LET PEOPLE KNOW THAT ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE
HAZARDOUS.

WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...AND BRING
SMALL SNOW CHANCES. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE WIND SHIFT AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY IN THE 30S...AND EVEN COLDER
ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SFC RDG WL BE RETREATING TO THE E OF THE REGION AT THE START OF THE
PD...WITH AN E/SELY WIND FLOW SETTING UP ACRS AR. AN UPR LVL STORM
SYS IS FCST TO PASS NW OF THE AREA DURG THE DAY ON SAT...WITH JUST A
SLGT CHC OF PRECIP OVR NWRN AR.

MORE UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH FOR PRETTY MUCH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. A FNTL BNDRY IS FCST TO APCH AR FM
THE NW...EVENTUALLY MOVG THRU MUCH OF THE STATE SUN AND SUN NGT
BEFORE STALLING OUT AS THE FNT BCMS PARALLEL TO THE UPR FLOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY WX WL EXIST SAT NGT AND EARLY SUN ACRS NRN
AR AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FROPA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY WL MEANDER OVR AR INTO WED. A SERIES
OF UPR LVL IMPULSES WL TRACK ALONG THE BNDRY...ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED
PRECIP CHCS THRU MUCH OF THE PD. TIMING OF EACH SYS WL RMN THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGE.

MILDER AIR WL RETURN AREAWIDE HEADING INTO MON AS THE BNDRY LIFTS
BACK N OF AR...WITH PRECIP TO RMN THE LIQUID VARIETY. SOME THUNDER
WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACRS SRN PARTS OF THE FA DURG THE AFTN HRS MON
AND TUE. RAIN CHCS DO APPEAR TO DCRS SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO WED AS A
NRN STREAM UPR TROF SWINGS EWD TO OUR N AND BRINGS A NEW CDFNT THRU
MOST OF AR BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     27  34  16  27 /  20  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         26  38  22  33 /  10  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       23  29  11  24 /  20  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    27  38  19  31 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  27  38  20  30 /  10  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     26  37  21  32 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      27  36  18  30 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  25  30  12  26 /  20  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        26  36  17  27 /  10  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     26  36  21  30 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   27  36  18  31 /  10  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         26  37  18  28 /  10  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      26  38  20  29 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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