Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 152044
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
244 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast are first period chances of rain.
Then better chances of convection late Friday and Saturday with
the next cold front. An isolated strong storm may develop.

Currently area of showers, with no thunder seen at this time,
continues to move ESE, associated with the upper lift as it moves
through the region. The area has shown weakening as it moves
southeast and as the upper lift weakens. The cold front was just
reaching northwest AR, and still expected very light showers or
rain along the front, and a northwest to north wind behind the
front. Lower clouds were also associated with the convection area
and to the front. Clouds were starting to thin in NW AR behind the
front as surface high pressure filters in a drier and cooler air
mass. Temperatures were from the mid 60s far southeast, while 50s
the rest of the state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday

Will keep a low chance of showers and rain in the forecast to
start as the current area moves southeast, and the cold front
gradually sags through AR. Models are consistent in stalling the
front over far southwest AR, where a low chance of rain will be
seen tonight and on Thursday. The rest of AR on Thursday will be
dry. Thursday night to Friday, the stalled boundary is forecast to
lift northward, and a slight chance of showers will be seen. Some
weak lift is also seen. Friday night to Saturday, increasing
chances of convection are seen as a cold front and upper lift move
closer to AR, then move through on Saturday. Temperatures will be
around normal for Thursday, then warm to above normal for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday

A mid level trough associated with an upper level low to our north
is forecast to be located over the northeastern four corners region
and will continue to track eastward through the weekend. A cold
front will accompany the trough and will bring the next chance for
widespread rainfall to the area. While a slight chance of rain will
persist into the long term forecast, once the cold front pushes
through the area on Saturday evening/night, mostly dry conditions
will be present for a few days. Additionally, slightly cooler
temperatures from the north will swing into the state behind the
cold front, and return temperatures to the 50s for daily highs. We
will most likely once again see freezing temperatures for lows on
Sun/Mon before lows level out in the 40s.

While models have trended towards a general agreement regarding the
time and strength of the aforementioned trough moving through, the
differences return to start the work week. The ECMWF keeps rain
chances in the forecast Monday through Wednesday, although slight.
However, the GFS solution keeps the forecast dry until the next cold
front moves through the area. The differences are mainly due to a
significant dispute in the upper levels, where the ECMWF has a well
established upper level low to the southwest of Texas, and the GFS
has an embedded shortwave trough in the Panhandle of Texas. Since
the models continue to change daily in the extended forecast, have
decided for this forecast package to included very low end precip
chances Tuesday/Wednesday.

One thing that continues to appear in the forecast is the chance for
another cold front allowing for cold temperatures to persist near
Thanksgiving. There continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty with
the specifics, given the reasoning above regarding the model
discrepancies. Stay tuned for updates with future forecat packages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     41  59  45  68 /  10  10  20  20
Camden AR         52  63  54  74 /  30  20  20  10
Harrison AR       37  60  47  67 /   0   0  20  20
Hot Springs AR    49  61  53  71 /  10  20  20  20
Little Rock   AR  46  62  51  71 /  10  10  20  20
Monticello AR     51  65  51  74 /  30  20  10  10
Mount Ida AR      47  60  53  71 /  10  20  20  20
Mountain Home AR  38  60  46  66 /   0   0  20  20
Newport AR        41  59  44  69 /  10  10  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     49  63  52  73 /  20  10  10  10
Russellville AR   43  61  50  69 /  10  10  20  20
Searcy AR         43  61  46  70 /  10  10  20  20
Stuttgart AR      47  63  49  72 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...CROSS



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