Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 291745
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SITES.
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST...WITH THUNDER NOTED OVER NORTHERN AR WHERE MAX LIFT AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IS LOCATED. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHEAST OF AR...GENERALLY FROM NE OK TO CENTRAL MO. DEW POINT
TEMPS HAVE COME UP OVER AR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHILE 12Z
KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.19 INCHES. DUE TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN...WILL HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND FINE TUNE CONVECTION CHANCES WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE MORE A SHOWER ISOLATED THUNDER PRECIP TYPE DUE
TO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. DID INCLUDE THUNDER TO TAF LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN IN PAST DAYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT
WILL END UP AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INCLUDE ERIKA NOW TRACKING UP THE WESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. DO BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WOULD ROB ARKANSAS OF MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INCLUDED IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  88  69  91 /  30  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         69  92  69  94 /  20  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  65  88 /  30  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  91  69  92 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  91  70  93 /  30  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     68  92  70  93 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      67  90  68  91 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  87  67  90 /  30  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        68  88  69  91 /  30  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  92  68  93 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  91  68  92 /  20  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         67  91  67  92 /  30  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      68  91  68  93 /  30  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51


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