Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 060541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FOG. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE ARE
UNCERTAIN AND ONLY USED VCSH AND VCTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO SE TO SW AT 3 TO 8 MPH. ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH PATCHY MVFR IN THE EARLY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY IN
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE ELEVATED
FROM THE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOCAL RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SLOW MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

FORECAST ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EXPECTED FRONTAL SYSTEM..TO
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY..BEFORE STALLING NEAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND SEVERAL
INSTANCES OF FOCUSED MID LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD PROMOTE
CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE IN A RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE
PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL JUST TOUCH
THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH. WILL STILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IS FEATURE.

OTHERWISE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH
A RETURN OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CAN NEVER BE EXCLUDED...THE COVERAGE WILL BE TO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WHERE THEY SHOULD BE
FOR EARLY TO MID JULY AND TRENDED TOWARDS THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







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