Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 211928
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
228 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT...AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BRING IN SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TOMORROW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM TODAY.

ABOVE THE SURFACE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA WITH
THE FRONT AND A BIT OF RIDGING WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT...AND RAINFALL CHANCES WILL RETURN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LONG TERM BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
A STALLED FRONT PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TENDED
TO PUSH THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BEFORE FINALLY
STALLING. IF THIS PANS OUT...FRONT MAY ACTUALLY STALL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ARKANSAS
AND AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WHILE I
ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.

FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD AND WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  73  49  75 /  60  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         60  79  52  82 /  70  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       53  71  47  75 /  50   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    57  78  51  79 /  60  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  77  51  78 /  60  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  78  52  80 /  70  20   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      54  76  47  77 /  60  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  53  73  46  76 /  50   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        56  74  48  77 /  60  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     59  76  52  78 /  60  20   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  77  49  78 /  60  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         55  73  43  72 /  60  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      58  74  48  75 /  60  20   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...225




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.