Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 251157 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING. MOST CEILINGS DURING THE
MORNING WILL BE FROM 5000 TO 6000 FEET...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACES FROM 2000 TO 3000 FEET. HEADING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

BY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A STORM SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. ALSO...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...AND WILL BECOME GUSTY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH AT 8 TO 14 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS FROM
16 TO 22 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 18 MPH...WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH IN SPOTS. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTER SOME EVENING SVR WX ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AND NWRN AREAS OF
THE CWA...ALL IS QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
WARM DAY WILL BE SEEN FOR WED AS SRLY FLOW KEEPS TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S AND EVEN SOME 80S POSSIBLE. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE
NW AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPS SE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO THE SW OVER THE STATE...AIDING IN INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF NORTH OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS WED LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL REMAIN WEST/NW OF THE CWA.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS...A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...GENERALLY STRETCHING FROM
OKC TO SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF MO. THE SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT NE ALONG THIS FRONT...WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS
FRONT AROUND SUNSET.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AS FORCING ALOFT
AGAIN REMAINS JUST NW OF THE LZK CWA...AND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BECOMING A BIT MORE STABLE WITH RESPECT TO SFC BASED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...IF ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WERE TO DEVELOP...SHOULD EXPECT
TSRA TO BECOME STRONG TO SVR FAIRLY EASILY AS THERE WILL BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS IF THESE ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOP...THOUGH
ROTATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH 0-3 KM SRH IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO...BUT THIS
THREAT WILL DEPEND ON IF THERE WILL BE HIGHER 0-1 KM OR LOWER SHR
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR.

BETTER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SE INTO THE CWA
WED EVENING...AS BETTER FORCING ALOFT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. ALONG
THIS LINEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ROTATION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...WITH SIGNIFICANT 0-3 SRH AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING LINE. THIS COULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF SOME LINEAR
SEGMENTS CAN ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE MORE UNSTABLE AND MORE HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

THE THREAT FOR SVR WX DOES DECREASE OVER TIME TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
AS TEMPS COOL DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS. WITH THE
FRONT SLOWING AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA...KEEPS POPS LIMITED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HRS ON THU ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HRS THU...AND THUS THE SVR WX THREAT MORE LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD REMAIN AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR STORM WHEN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ARRIVES THU MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA. EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DROP SE OF THE CWA THU
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SPEEDS BACK UP...AND PRECIP SHOULD END FROM
THE WEST LATE THU AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THU EVENING.

GIVEN THE FRONT WILL SLOW BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS WED
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE CELL TRAINING AND WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST NW OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE NRN
AND NWRN COUNTIES WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THU MORNING. AS A RESULT...SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
MUCH LESS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AS THE FRONT INCREASES ITS SEWD
MOMENTUM...WITH GENERALLY TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OR LESS RAINFALL
EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING
SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND EVEN SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRI AND SAT. DEPENDING ON TIMING...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX IN SOME SPOTS.
IF ANY WINTRY PRECIP WERE TO BE SEEN...IT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE 30S
TO LOW 40S. GIVEN THE RECENT WARMTH...LIGHT AMOUNTS...AND TEMPS
REMAINING SEVERAL DEG ABOVE FREEZING...NO WINTER WX HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE. AS
THIS HAPPENS...A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS...AND
WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT...WITH SOME DATA MOVING THE FRONT ALONG
AND OTHER DATA STALLING IT OVER THE AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS AND
TWEAK THE FORECAST GIVEN ADDITIONAL DATA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  50  54  36 /  20  80  50  20
CAMDEN AR         83  61  63  38 /  10  40  50  10
HARRISON AR       76  43  54  33 /  40  90  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    81  56  59  38 /  10  70  30  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  81  57  59  38 /  10  70  40  10
MONTICELLO AR     80  58  63  38 /  10  30  70  10
MOUNT IDA AR      80  53  59  36 /  20  80  30  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  77  45  55  35 /  40  90  30  20
NEWPORT AR        78  52  55  35 /  20  80  60  10
PINE BLUFF AR     80  58  62  37 /  10  50  60  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  52  58  37 /  30  80  30  10
SEARCY AR         78  53  56  36 /  20  70  50  10
STUTTGART AR      79  57  60  35 /  10  60  60  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...46






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