Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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977
FXUS64 KLZK 241154 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
654 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period. Winds
will range veer from the NNW to the NE with time as high pressure
continues to build into the region from the north. Some model
guidance has indicated that some showers could develop in southern
Arkansas this morning but confidence in that occurring is very low
so have left any mention of showers, vicinity or prevailing, out
of the southern terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 410 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

A cold front was situated south of Arkansas this morning. And
while dry air was initially lagging the front by a fair amount, it
is now easily filtering into the state from north as is evident by
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s now making their way into
northern and even central parts of the state. Model guidance over
the last couple of days was peristent in developing some elevated
convection in the post-frontal air mass of southern Arkansas
through the morning and even early afternoon hours. However this
trend is no more and now the latest high-resolution is now showing
a rain-free forecast for the rest of the day. Currently have some
20-30 PoPs in the forecast in southern Arkansas through the
morning hours. Will let that ride for now and see how radar trends
progress through the end of the shift. If nothing develops, will
likely issue an amendment to the forecast to remove rain.

Otherwise, a dry forecast is on tap for the short term period. A
broad upper trough over the eastern half of the United States will
push high pressure into Arkansas from the north. This upper level
flow pattern combined with surface high pressure will produce dry
weather across the region, with temperatures holding around or
slightly below normal. Most notably humidity levels will be held
at bay, resulting in a much more comfortable feel to the days.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Saturday

The extended period will start with a ridge of high pressure over
the southwest United States, and a northwest wind flow aloft
locally. A weak system will ride the flow into the region late
Monday, and this will result in small chances for thunder in the
northeast half of Arkansas.

As the week progresses, the ridge to the southwest will become less
pronounced. The flow aloft will become more zonal. There may be some
ridging over the southeast states by the end of the week. At the
surface, a cold front will slowly work toward the region from the
Plains, but will probably hang up to the northwest.

Given the pattern, there will be a slow warming trend as the week
progresses, especially at night as moisture levels gradually
increase. Temperatures will start off below average, but will be
closer to normal by the end of the week. In general, it will be dry
through Wednesday, with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday as the aforementioned
front approaches.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...64



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