Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 191107 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
507 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS AS LOW AS LIFR ARE CONTINUING AT SOME TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY LOW CIGS SEEN AT MOST SITES. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE...AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LA BORDER. FURTHER NORTH...MAINLY SOME ISOLATED RA...OR
DZ IS EXPECTED. WHILE SOME SITES WILL SEE SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS
IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT THINK OVERALL PATTERN
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL LATER ON
SAT. AS A RESULT...KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR MOST SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY THERE.

FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY PATCHY THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING MOST OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...
AND PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT AND COLDER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE
BEST POPS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING TUE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND NERN AR TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP MIX IN. AT THIS TIME...THERE
ONLY LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...AND ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER WHEN THAT COLD AIR SETTLES INTO
AR. AS A RESULT...CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP
ARE VERY POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY WED WITH
FLOW ALOFT MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MAY
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AR ON WED...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NEARLY ZONAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING LOW AND TEMPS STARTING
TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN COLDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THAT
FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  30  47  30 /  40  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         45  34  50  32 /  70  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       41  30  44  32 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    44  33  49  32 /  50  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  32  50  32 /  60  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     44  35  49  34 /  80  50  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      44  30  49  29 /  50  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  30  47  32 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        41  29  48  29 /  40  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     43  33  47  31 /  70  40  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  33  51  33 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         43  29  46  28 /  50  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      42  33  48  30 /  60  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62





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