Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211652
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1052 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM FNT WAS SITUATED ACRS SWRN AR AT LATE MRNG. WL CONT TO SEE
GOOD CHCS OF SHOWERS THIS AFTN ALONG AND N OF THE BNDRY AS AN UPR
LVL IMPULSE APCHS FM THE W. HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE
MENTIONED ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ABT A CAT OVR
NRN AND CNTRL SECTIONS BASED ON THE EXPECTED SLOW NWD ADVANCE OF
THE WARM FNT. NO OTHER CHGS TO REST OF FCST. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LOCALLY. THIS WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF COAST UP AND OVER THE
FRONT...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND HERE.

IN GENERAL...SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT TODAY/SATURDAY...WITH
RAINFALL GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT WILL CLIMB TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS.

THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...AND RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH...WITH SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE...WITH THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
GOING UP.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.

RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS USUAL
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM...BUT OVERALL THEY DO
AGREE ON THE PATTERN. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON WED NIGHT. HAVE KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS NONE OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE IMPULSE SWINGING SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI
ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A STRONG JET WITH IT SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH LATER THAT EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THOUGH NOT AS STARKLY COLD AS
HAVE BEEN SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD AS THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL UPPER
FLOW DEVELOPING WHILE THE EURO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




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