Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 151910 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
205 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
THAN A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEAST. WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
BE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN
ARKANSAS TO 16 TO 22 MPH. (46)
&&

.UPDATE...
FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THIS MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND
TRENDS. SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND APPROPRIATE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WIND FLOW...SHOULD HAVE MORE AREAS OF
FROST EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT WAS PRODUCED TONIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE
THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
MID-SOUTH SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION.
FORECASTS LAPSE RATES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WIND FIELDS ALL
APPEAR TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTED THIS REGION...AND OVERALL CONVECTION THAT IS PRODUCED
SHOULD BE WEAK.

55

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS
DIFFERING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. HAVE LEFT SMALL
CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS
REACHED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  32  61  38 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         60  31  65  39 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       55  31  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  33  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  34  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     57  33  63  41 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  33  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  31  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        55  33  62  40 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     57  34  63  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  33  64  39 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         56  33  61  37 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      56  34  61  41 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$







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