Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 281956
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

DESPITE SEEING A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY IN ARKANSAS...HAVE YET TO
SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS FIRE IN THE HEAT OF DAY TODAY AND IF ANY WERE
TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...YET NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS SEEN ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS IT WAS OUT
TODAY...AND UPGRADED THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY TO TOP 110 DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEPART TO THE WEST AND ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE STATE. VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL BE SEEN
WITH THE FRONT AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS.

WHAT WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS MAY REMAIN
IN THE 80S WITH DEWPONITS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
ALIGNED ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME DEEPENING A TROUGH OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL PATTERNS
WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE WELL LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     77  97  73  91 /  10  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         76 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
HARRISON AR       74  93  70  89 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  99  77  96 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  79  99  77  94 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     78  99  77  97 /  10  10  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      72  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  94  70  91 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        77  96  73  91 /  10  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     76  99  75  94 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  99  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         75  98  73  92 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      77  97  74  91 /  10  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-
DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-YELL.


HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
FULTON-IZARD-STONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...55



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