Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 131149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
549 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Clear skies will continue through much of the period. As a cold
front approaches today, southwest winds will increase and become
gusty. Gusts up to 30 kts are expected in the east. Winds should
subside early this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
through the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 421 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
High pressure remains over Arkansas and the dry conditions will
remain over the state through Thursday. A cold front will move
through the state this afternoon and evening as low pressure moves
through the midwest. This will bring increased southwest winds to
the state and expect the highest winds in the east. A Lake Wind
Advisory has been issued for the eastern and parts of central
counties this afternoon. Fire Danger will be elevated this
afternoon. Lowest humidity values will be in the west but winds
are not expected to be as strong here. Models may not have a good
handle on how dry our atmosphere this will need to be
monitored closely. Highs today will be in the 60s mainly and in
the 40s and 50s Thursday.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
The extended period will start off dry but cool on Friday. Air mass
over Arkansas will bone dry, with dewpoints in the 20s. This will
keep the fire danger elevated. Fortunately, there will be some
relief this weekend.

A trough will dig through the Rockies and Plains Saturday/Sunday,
and will ride a northwest wind flow aloft. As the trough nears,
models show a southwest system ejecting toward us ahead of the
trough, with some moisture increase. Granted, this will not be
tropical by any means, with dewpoints getting into the 40s to lower
50s over the southeast half of the state. Clouds will increase, and
there are good chances of showers in the forecast.

Rainfall Saturday into Sunday could be in the half inch to inch
range from Little Rock to the south/east. Lesser amounts are
expected farther north/west.

While this event will not be a widespread heavy rain maker, at least
there will be some liquid. Drought conditions continue to slowly
worsen following one of the driest falls on record.

After this weekend, and following the passage of the system, it will
be back to a mostly dry forecast. It will not cool off behind the
system. If anything, readings will be a little above average early
next week.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening FOR



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