Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 280541
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1141 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST. WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BECOME 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
ARKANSAS LATER ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OVER THE REST OF ARKANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOME 5 TO 15 THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
LOWS AROUND NORMAL IN THE EAST...TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE WEST.
NW UPPER FLOW IS INTO AR WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILT OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS AND THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. AT
THIS TIME LITTLE MOISTURE IS SEEN UPSTREAM. STILL EXPECTING A COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...ONLY
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW TO N AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN OVER
THE REGION. LATE EVENING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BECOME GUSTY
AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES CONTD TO SLOLY SHIFT EWD TODAY WITH THE AXIS SITUATED
OVR ERN AR AT MID AFTN. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED QUITE NICELY OVR WRN
AND CNTRL AR WHERE MID AFTN TEMPS WERE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE
COLDER AIR ASSOCD WITH THE HIGH WAS LINGERING OVR ERN AR WHERE
READINGS WERE STILL IN THE 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES RDG WL CONT TO SHIFT EWD TNGT AND WED.
THIS WL ALLOW FOR S/SELY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE FA HEADING
INTO WED. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WED WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

MODELS CONT TO INDC A QUICK MOVG CDFNT WL DROP SWD THRU AR LATE WED
NGT AND ON THU. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL INCRS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. LOW LVL MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH FROPA...SO WL CONT TO
KEEP A DRY FCST DURG THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES WL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR FRI. THE NEXT CHC FOR
ANY ORGANIZED PRECIP WL RETURN TO WRN AR LATE FRI NGT...WITH BETTER
CHCS HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND
PRECIPITATION ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE WEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK TOWARDS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BRING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS DID TEND TO COME BACK A BIT WARMER
THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT DID BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.
HOWEVER THIS DOES STILL KEEP WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPS STAYING STEADY OR EVEN WARMING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SFC TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE RETURN OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL FAIRLY FAR OUT...AND WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT LIKELY TO CHANGE...IT WOULD GREATLY EFFECT THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES IN THE COMING
DAYS.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  33  61  45 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         73  36  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       63  36  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  38  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  35  67  46 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     67  37  68  49 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      73  36  70  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  35  65  42 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        56  33  62  45 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  36  67  47 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  37  68  43 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         63  33  64  45 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      61  34  64  46 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




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