Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 230535

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1235 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Patchy fog will be possible after midnight, but not widespread.
Overcast conditions are over the west half of Arkansas and these
high clouds will spread east overnight. By late Monday, isolated
showers will be possible over northwest Arkansas. Winds will be
light to calm overnight. Winds on Monday will be E to SE at 5 to
15 mph.




Overall forecast on track. Will only see some scattered to at times
overcast mid and high clouds stream in over AR tonight, from the
convection over the central Plains. This will cut down on the
chances of fog formation early Monday morning, so will not include
in forecast. Forecast lows will also be a degree or two above
current forecast values. Otherwise, late evening update will only
fine tune a few elements. Rain chances return to AR later Monday and
this week. (59)

Prev Discussion... /Issued 630 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/


Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Patchy areas of fog will be possible after midnight, but not
widespread. Clouds will gradually increase on Monday from the west,
with late day isolated showers possible over NW AR. Winds will be E
to SE at 3 to 8 mph or light and variable this evening and
overnight. Winds on Monday will be E to SE at 5 to 15 mph. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 241 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday
Recent observations indicate clear conditions are prevailing across
the forecast area. Some increased cloud cover is expected
overnight...however any convective development will remain to the
west of the area.

Overall precipitation chances will slowly increase during
this period. Best chances for precipitation appear after
12z several forecast signals are present for MCS
type move in from the west and northwest. Forecasts
will reflect temporal and spatial uncertainties with regard to
this type of event.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
The period will start off with a weak ridge aloft over the
region...which will gradually shift east by mid week...with SW flow
aloft gradually increasing. As this happens...moisture levels will
continue to increase...and with some disturbances lifting NE over
the state in the SW flow aloft...rain chances will remain in the
forecast as this unsettled pattern continues. Keep rain chances in
the chance category for early in the period as there is no major
focus for precip...or timing of that precip for Tue night through
Thu...with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA possible.

By late Thu into Fri...the SW flow aloft will intensify further as
the upper trough to the west moves closer to the state. As a
result...expect increased rain chances with coverage of SHRA/TSRA
becoming more widespread. This will also be the time period that may
have better potential for some organized SVR WX given the upper
trough  moving closer.`s a bit early to pinpoint the
exact SVR WX threat at this time.

Over the keep some rain chances in the forecast...but
coverage may decrease as the flow aloft becomes weaker. As a
result...expect more pulse-type diurnally driven convection...with
the best potential for SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon heating.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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