Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 112339 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
539 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A front will move into the northern part of the state around or
shortly after 12z tomorrow morning. The front will hang up in the
terrain a bit but will eventually push through the rest of the
state tomorrow evening. Have plaid the early part of the 00z TAF
period with a persistence forecast, bringing MVFR ceilings of
OVC015-025 into all terminals between 06z-10z tonight. Think LLQ
will be far enough south of the front that a persistence forecast
is in order for them, lifting ceilings back to VFR levels after
the mid/late morning time frame. Elsewhere the presence of the
front should keep most people limited to MVFR flight categories
throughout the period. Did go ahead with a frontal wind shift and
VCSH at northern sites, but elsewhere a wind shift and rainfall
should hold off I believe.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 255 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017 )

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday

Southwest flow aloft will continue over the central U.S. through
Friday. An upper low pressure system will develop along the west
coast Thursday and will dive into southern California on Friday.
An upper ridge will remain parked over the southeast U.S.

A cold front in Missouri and Kansas will move southeast tonight
and should be entering northwest Arkansas around 12z Thursday
morning. The rain chances will continue to remain minimal through
tonight but expect chances to increase as the front enters the
state. This front will stall in central Arkansas through Friday
and keep rain chances likely...especially in the north and west
parts of the state.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
The pattern will be unsettled, with chances for showers/isolated
thunderstorms through the weekend. Chances for rain will be highest
in the northwest half of Arkansas.

The big slug of moisture will come Monday/Tuesday as a large storm
system surges through the southern Plains and tracks to the
north/northeast. Showers/scattered thunderstorms will be likely
during this time frame, with areas of heavy rain. Two to three inch
amounts will be common, with higher totals possible in portions of
the Ozark and Ouachita Mountains of the north/west.

If this much rain pans out, looking for some flash flooding. There
could also be minor river flooding along the Black and lower White
Rivers.

While severe storms are somewhat of a concern Monday/Tuesday, there
will not be much instability. Also, the main energy with the
aforementioned system will stay at a fair distance to the northwest,
with less contribution to a severe weather event.

Rain will be in the process of winding down on Wednesday. While it
will turn somewhat cooler, temperatures will probably stay above
average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Arkansas-
Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-
Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-
Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-
White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$


Aviation...64



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