Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 251137
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
537 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR KHRO AND
KBPK. ELSEWHERE...A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE TODAY LEADING TO FALLING CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET WILL BE SEEN...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO SNOW.
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 00Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WESTERN RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS. RADAR RETURNS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION IS NOT QUITE REACHING THE
GROUND YET. LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THIS MORNING...
AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES HEADS EAST.

PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. RATES WILL
RAMP UP LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION.

WITH THE LOW POISED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND THE
SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOP.

SEVERAL THINGS TO NOTE WITH THIS SYSTEM...

THIS FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING ONE. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT
BETWEEN VERY LITTLE SNOW AND HEAVIER SNOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE
VARIATION ACROSS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE...AS THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
FIGHTS DRIER AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO AREA.
QUITE LIKELY...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS WILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW...WHILE THE SOUTH COULD SEE MORE THAN THREE INCHES.

THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING IS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF A
MURFREESBORO TO PINE BLUFF LINE...WITH FOUR INCHES OR GREATER. ANY
DEVIATION IN THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM COULD CHANGE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW WITH IT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...WITH MOST AREAS
STAYING BELOW 40 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE IOWA
WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF EASTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH EASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. FIRST CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE
SLOWING DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN
IS NOT AS QUICK IN THE REGION...AND REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL SATURDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT MAINLY LIMITED TO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT APPROACHES THE STATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. GFS...BRINGS THIS SYSTEM IN SOONER...WITH UPPER TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING IN
THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WELL BEHIND THE
SURFACE SYSTEM. WHAT IS CLEAR...IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     35  26  35  17 /  20  20  30  10
CAMDEN AR         33  25  42  24 / 100  10  30  10
HARRISON AR       36  24  28  11 /  10  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  25  39  20 /  80  10  30  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  26  38  21 /  60  10  30  10
MONTICELLO AR     32  26  41  23 / 100  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      34  25  38  19 /  80  10  30  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  36  25  31  13 /  10  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        35  25  36  18 /  30  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     32  26  39  22 / 100  10  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  27  38  19 /  30  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         34  25  37  19 /  40  20  30  10
STUTTGART AR      33  25  38  21 /  80  10  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FAULKNER-
GARLAND-MONTGOMERY-POLK-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65





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