Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 251708
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1208 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS IS ISOLATED TSRA COVERAGE FROM
20Z-01Z. SEVERAL CAM MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
FORM AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED. IT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING AROUND 5 MPH...
BECOMING EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 12 MPH.
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST. (46)

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADV FOR ALL THE CWA. WHILE
THE 4 COUNTIES THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY WITHOUT A HEAT ADV FOR TODAY
WILL STILL BE MARGINAL AT REACHING CRITERIA...A FEW SPOTS WITHIN
THOSE COUNTIES COULD SEE A COUPLE HRS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED NPW OUT AND ZONES OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND
OVER THE STATE IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST FOR THIS SAT...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK FROM THE NORTH. EVEN SO...EXPECT TEMPS TO
BE SIMILAR IF NOT A TAD WARMER THAN SEEN ON FRI. DEWPTS WILL
REMAIN HIGH AS WELL...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING 70S DEWPTS. THIS WILL
BE RESULT OF MOISTURE POOLING OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SERN QUARTER OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...CONTINUE THE HEAT
ADV FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NWRN COUNTIES FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER
105 TO JUST AROUND 110 DEG THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTS COULD
BRIEFLY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 110 DEG. THE NWRN COUNTIES
WILL SEE HEAT INDEX OVER 100...BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADV
CRITERIA FOR TODAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE SEEN.

SIMILAR STORY WILL BE SEEN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
.WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING A BIT FURTHER OVER THE STATE EACH DAY.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW...THOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY
LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES A TAD...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO POST AN
EXTENSION TO THE HEAT ADV INTO AT LEAST SUN...IF NOT THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE STORY INTO TUE.
RELIEF WILL THEN BE IN SIGHT AS WE GO INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LATER THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
CONTINUED HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. ON
THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL RELOCATE TO THE
ROCKIES...WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY NOT SO MUCH HEAT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  78  95  77 /  20  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR        100  78 100  77 /  20  10  20  10
HARRISON AR       95  75  94  74 /  20  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR   100  78  98  78 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  79  98  79 /  20  10  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  77  99  78 /  20  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      99  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  76  94  75 /  20  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        96  77  94  77 /  20  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     98  78  98  78 /  20  10  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  77  97  77 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         97  77  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
STUTTGART AR      97  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...55


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