Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 302331
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
631 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...

CONTINUING TO SEE LOW CLOUDS CREEP INTO NW ARKANSAS. WEST OF
KRHO...SEEING MOSTLY MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CEILINGS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT
IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...THEREFORE JUST INCLUDED VCSH
AT KHRO AND KBPK.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES.
ALREADY SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW ARKANSAS. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD MVFR/SOME
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/RAIN/FOG.

WHILE RAIN WILL MOSTLY END BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND ANY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER.

WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
AT 4 TO 9 MPH. (46)

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX WILL LIFT FROM NE
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE INTENSITY AND RESULTING RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS IN RECENT DAYS. STILL...HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SHOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON WHERE THIS
CONVECTION PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH BEING A POSSIBILITY. WHILE I
DID TRIM BACK SOME COUNTIES FROM THE NORTHERN EXTENT...DID LEAVE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND DETERMINE WHETHER THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH NEEDS TO BE DROPPED OR EXTENDED IN TIME.

OTHERWISE A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDER SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO END THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO
CONTINUING CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER LOW.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM ARKANSAS TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EASTERN COUNTIES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SLOW
WARMING...WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  73  59  76 /  50  40  10  10
CAMDEN AR         64  80  63  81 /  50  20  10  20
HARRISON AR       57  70  56  75 /  20  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  77  62  79 /  50  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  64  77  61  79 /  50  30  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     66  79  64  80 /  60  40  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      60  76  60  78 /  40  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  72  57  75 /  30  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        63  73  59  76 /  50  50  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     65  77  63  79 /  50  40  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  76  60  78 /  30  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         64  75  60  77 /  50  40  10  10
STUTTGART AR      65  77  62  78 /  50  50  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JEFFERSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65





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