Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 020025 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
725 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT
NORTHERN SITES. REGIONAL RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AROUND AND TO THE EAST OF KANSAS CITY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE...ALBEIT IT IN A WEAKENED STATE MOST LIKELY...AT KHRO AND
KBPK AROUND THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE
ARKANSAS BORDER...JUST HAVE VCTS GOING AT KHRO AND KBPK BETWEEN
07Z-12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK THU...BUT MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UP NORTH. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ONLY SOME FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

LASTLY...BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 25KT RANGE MOST EVERYWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN
IN THIS FLOW THIS MORNING DID BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WERE MINIMAL. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THIS
PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER ON
THANKS TO ANY LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. STRONG WAVE ARRIVES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
COVERAGE....AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT AND YET ANOTHER POTENT WAVE DROPPING DOWN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS AS
SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND TIMING DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ARKANSAS REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  30
HARRISON AR       89  73  86  68 /  50  40  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  91  74 /  20  30  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     92  75  92  75 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      90  75  89  73 /  20  20  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  87  69 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  75  90  72 /  30  30  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  90  72 /  30  40  40  60
STUTTGART AR      91  75  90  73 /  20  30  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64




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