Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 181532
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1032 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Have made very minor updates to near term forecasts to account for
the latest trends. Several CAM type models suggest any
accumulating precipitation this afternoon will be across the
southern third of the forecast area.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 650 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017)

AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR conditions will be common much of the morning due
to low clouds and fog. Late this morning and into the afternoon, fog
will dissipate and clouds will lift/become more scattered. VFR
conditions will return.

There will be a continued chance of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the southeast half of Arkansas today.

Mostly clear conditions are in the forecast tonight, with patchy
light fog after midnight.

Winds will be light and variable this morning, and will vary from
southeast to southwest at 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. (46)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
An MCV was headed through southeast/east central Arkansas early
this morning. This was triggering isolated showers. There was also
patchy dense fog forming, and included this in the forecast.

A weak boundary across the region will lift slowly toward the Ohio
Valley today. Isolated precipitation will remain possible over
the southeast half of the state.

CLouds will decrease tonight with patches of fog forming. More
sunshine is expected on Wednesday. High pressure over the
southeast states will bring a breezy southwest wind.

Toward the end of the period, a new cold front will be on the
horizon in the Plains. Ahead of the front, some clouds will
increase in northwest Arkansas Wednesday night.

Temperatures through the near term will be above average.

Long Term...Thursday through Monday
Low pressure will drag a frontal boundary into the region Thursday.
With upper flow being flat initially, the boundary will stall out.
With an upper level system moving through and interacting with it,
showers and thunderstorms will become likely, primarily north of the
front on Thursday night.

By Friday, deepening upper low will move southeast off the front
range of the Rockies, which will amplify the flow, and push the
surface front back to the north a little. Surface low pressure will
form along the boundary, to the west of Arkansas, and this will drag
the front through the region around Friday night or Saturday.

There remains a concern for a few strong storms. With the surface
and upper system nearly in phase with each other, plenty of shear
will be available, and cold air aloft will be moving in. However,
the amount of surface-based instability remains in question.

At any rate, once the front clears the region some time Saturday,
colder air will move in as the upper low passes east of the region,
and flow becomes nearly meridional. Any cooldown will be short-
lived, however, as surface high pressure quickly moves through the
region, and winds start to gain a southerly component by late
Monday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99



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