Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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354
FXUS64 KLZK 051725
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1125 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF THE PLAINS THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THESE ARE THIN
SO QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND RAISED MAXES JUST A DEGREE OR
SO. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING IS KEEPING QUIET WEATHER
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS JUST A TOUGH HIGHER THAN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO PULL TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR
TWO VERSUS WHAT WAS SEEN ON THURSDAY.

WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE 20TH
PERCENTILE OVER THE WEST AND 30TH OVER THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FIRE DANGER WILL BE ENHANCED AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE RETURNING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL
MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND WILL TREND THE
POPS DOWN TO SILENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE THAT WILL BE SEEN TODAY.

LONG TERM PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT A HOME ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULTING MERIDIONAL FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GIVE ARKANSAS
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...BUT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER COOL. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A LITTLE BIT FOR
HIGHS THOSE DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EXPECTED. A
WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
STATE.

OVERAL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY. THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSING
THROUGH ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY GENERATE A LITTLE
PRECIP BUT THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...JUST OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA. DID ADD IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AND THE THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT AN
ALL SNOW PTYPE. DO NOT EXPECT THERE WOULD BE ANY ACCUMULATION...NOR
MUCH IMPACT...IF ANY AT ALL...ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. BUT IT
LOOKS REASONABLE TO THINK SOME FLAKES COULD BE IN THE AIR DURING
THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     53  33  54  35 /   0  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         56  32  54  33 /   0  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       53  32  51  33 /   0  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  32  54  34 /   0  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  32  54  35 /   0  10  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     54  33  54  35 /   0  10  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      54  30  54  32 /   0  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  53  32  53  33 /   0  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        53  32  53  34 /   0  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     54  32  53  35 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   54  30  54  32 /   0  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         53  30  53  32 /   0  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      53  32  53  35 /   0  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51
AVIATION...99



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