Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 171622
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1022 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DID ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE SW THIS WED
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASING STATEWIDE. WILL
LIKELY SEE CIGS/VIS DROP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS TONIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WHILE MAINLY RA IS EXPECTED...THE NRN SITES COULD SEE A MIX WITH
SN OR PL WITH THE RA. RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATTER
HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE SERN SITES...WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO MORE
TROUGHING...AND NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE FREQUENT COLD INTRUSIONS...WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A QUICK ROUND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET IN THE FAR
NORTH BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS POINT...
ONLY MINOR...IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AS WARM
AS IT/S BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...TRAVEL ISSUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
AGAIN SEND ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING.

MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL BE FROM THE SW AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTING EAST OVER
AR. MOISTURE LEVELS LOOK TOO LIMITED WITH THIS FIRST WAVE TO SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR SUN INTO MON...SO HAVE KEPT POPS
SILENT AT THIS TIME. KEEP TEMPS HOVERING AROUND NORMAL EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...BUT CHANGES WILL BE UNDERWAY LATE IN THE FORECAST AS
A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME A MORE DOMINANT FEATURE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AND DROP SE OVER THE
REGION TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
STATE. GIVEN THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL THAT SOME WINTRY PRECIP
MAY BE SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...KEEP ALL PRECIP LIQUID AT AS THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE...AND
WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     39  33  42  34 /  20  70  20  20
CAMDEN AR         46  40  48  43 /  10  70  40  40
HARRISON AR       39  32  42  33 /  40  80  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    44  38  47  40 /  20  80  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  42  36  45  40 /  10  70  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     46  40  50  43 /  10  80  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      43  36  45  37 /  30  80  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  32  43  34 /  40  80  20  20
NEWPORT AR        39  34  42  35 /  10  70  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     43  37  47  41 /  10  80  40  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   43  35  48  38 /  30  80  20  20
SEARCY AR         40  32  45  33 /  10  70  30  20
STUTTGART AR      42  36  46  39 /  10  80  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65




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