Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 230225
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
925 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Abundant cloud cover continues across mainly north Arkansas. High
pressure will build across Arkansas overnight and Thursday. East
winds will become southeast by afternoon and help to warm
temperatures. Lows tonight look good in the lower 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 621 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017
)

AVIATION...
High pressure will build over Arkansas tonight and Thursday. No
precipitation is expected through the period. More clouds will be
in the north but VFR conditions are expected at all sites.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 249 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017
)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday Night

Much cooler conditions are ongoing across the entire CWA this
afternoon compared to the previous couple days thanks to the cold
front that pushed through the state last night. This front is now
stalled over NE TX into NRN LA this afternoon. Some cloud cover and
rainfall have also helped keep temps down...but clouds thinned out
the past few hrs for all but the NWRN sections of AR. This region of
the state will still see some potential for rain or drizzle this
afternoon...with even those chances for rainfall decreasing this
evening.

Overnight...the cold front will lift back north as a warm
front...with low clouds returning as the moisture levels begin to
increase. SRLY flow will have returned to all of the state by Thu
afternoon...with much warmer temps expected. Expect to see temps
back in the 60s and 70s...for most areas...with even some 80s
possible across the south and SW. Dry conditions should persist.

Moisture levels will continue to increase Thu night through Fri as a
potent upper level storm system approaches from the west. Deep
moisture return will be in full force by Fri afternoon...with
dewpts increasing into the upper 50s and mid 60s. Given the
persistent deep SRLY flow at the SFC and with the potent LLJ...these
dewpts may end up being higher than current model guidance is
suggesting...which may result in higher moisture at the low levels.
This may result in higher instability as the main front moves east
into AR late Fri afternoon and through the state Fri night into
early Sat morning.

Current model guidance shows instability as the primary limiting
factor on the potential for SVR WX Fri evening and overnight as
overall dynamics are fairly impressive. Do think damaging winds will
be the primary threat...with a tornado or two possible. The threat
for tornadoes as well as hail...will increase if the low level
moisture levels end up being higher than currently expected...as a
result in higher CAPE with SFC based parcels. As usual...expect
these details to be fine tuned over the next 24 to 48 hrs as the
storm system gets closer. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible...but the movement of the front eastward looks to be fairly
rapid to limit the widespread flash flood threat.

This front will this shift east for the weekend...with quieter
conditions expected to start off the long term period.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

The severe weather threat should be ending around 12Z Sat which
coincides with the start of the long term forecast. Some wrap around
showers and thunderstorms will continue on Sat with the best chances
across the north. A short break in the rain chances Sat night and
Sun before another weaker shortwave brings another round of showers
and storms Sunday night and Monday. Looks like a few storms could be
strong or severe, but widespread outbreak of severe storms looks
unlikely at this point. Still, it is that time of year when just
about any system could bring a few severe storms. A cold front will
move through the area Monday and Monday night bringing slightly
cooler temps to the area Tue and Wed.

Quite a bit of uncertainty with POPs Wed. The GFS is advertising a
break between systems with upper ridging to bring dry and mild
conditions Tue and Wed before a very potent upper level storm system
affects the area Thu and/or Friday (which is just beyond the
extended forecast period). Meanwhile, the ECMWF is quicker with the
the potent upper level trough affecting the area as early as Tue
night out west and across the entire area Wed, and keeps the upper
trough nearly stationary with rounds of showers and storms continuing
until early Friday. Regardless of which model is correct, either
solution looks favorable for severe weather with this system. Stay
tuned.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

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