Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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702
FXUS64 KLZK 061805 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1205 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Though portions of northeastern Arkansas are relatively cloud free
late this morning, an expansive area of MVFR clouds still cover
most of the state. A cold front moving through the state will
displace some of the MVFR ceilings, especially from northern
Arkansas, but will not completely change the air mass. As such,
expect a return of low clouds to central and southern terminals
later this evening. Additionally, a system will be moving in from
the west during the early morning hours on Wednesday. Expect to
see some areas of light drizzle developing in western and
southwestern Arkansas after roughly 10z. Have this included in
KHOT and KADF TAFs accordingly.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 350 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Upr low was centered ovr NERN LA early this mrng...with a large area
of rain/isold tsra noted acrs much of the FA. The sys wl cont to
lift NEWD away fm the area this mrng...with steadier rain tapering
off thru the remainder of the mrng. Meanwhile...initial CDFNT
extended fm NW MO back into Cntrl OK.

Wl cont to mention lingering patchy fog and drizzle thru midday ovr
most areas ahead of the aforementioned CDFNT that wl work thru AR
later today. Still looking at a lull in organized precip acrs the
region heading into Wed thanks to a weak area of high pres.

Small precip chcs return late Wed into Wed ngt ahead of the arctic
CDFNT apchg fm the NW. The bndry wl interact with some Srn stream
moisture/lift to produce some lgt rain. As low lvl colder air
filters into the FA...still expect a brief mix of rain/snow before
ending as lgt snow acrs NRN AR. The colder airmass wl encompass the
FA heading into the long term.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday

A broad upper trough will be over the Great Lakes to the Southern
Plains to begin the period with an upper ridge over the west coast.
The upper trough moves to the east coast by Friday morning and the
upper ridge moves to the Rockies. Northwest flow over Arkansas
becomes zonal Saturday and southwest flow reutrns Saturday night and
Sunday. An upper low moves through the upper Great Lakes Sunday.
Northwest flow returns Monday and Tuesday.

Arctic high pressure will be moving into the area Thursday. This
will bring very cold air to the region through Saturday morning.
Lows will be in the teens and 20s Thursday night and in the low to
mid 20s across the area Friday night. Dry conditions will continue
through Saturday.

As the surface low moves east of the area, rain chances will
increase Saturday night and Sunday. Will continue the rain chances
into Monday night, and Tuesday will be dry given the passage of a
cold front. Warmer temperatures in the 50s are expected Sunday
through Tuesday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...64



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