Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281129 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE ARKADELPHIA AREA AND IN
RIVER VALLEY AREAS. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING...BECOMING
NE TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. A LIGHT SHOWER MAY BE SEEN IN CENTRAL TO
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL BE LOW. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AFTER SOME SPRINKLES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT
EVENING...DRY CONDITIONS WERE ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE. FORECAST MAY NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT FOR THIS SUN AS A
WEAK UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS JUST SOUTH AND SE OF THE STATE. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN SE OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHRA COULD BE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR EARLY THIS WORK
WEEK...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL MON AND TUE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
THIS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...AND A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE SW OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE INCREASING MOISTURE. DO START INCREASING
POPS ACROSS THE NWRN AND NRN COUNTIES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE STATE. THIS SFC LOW WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST WITH THE HELP OF A COLD FRONT IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH MUCH BETTER POPS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL START OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY
AND GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING CONVECTION TO ARKANSAS. ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...STARTING IN THE
NORTHWEST...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MODEL TIMING OF THE FRONT IS CLOSE...WITH
THE FRONT NEAR THE MS RIVER AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...AND AS THE
CONVECTION PUSHES EAST. SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER
NORTHERN TO NE AR...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.

THE BEST LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
EVENING...TO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...AND THE TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FINE TUNED WITH LATER FORECASTS.  MUCH
COOLER...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
GO INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL START ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...COOLING FRIDAY...THEN GOING BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  61  86  60 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         85  64  87  65 /  20  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       82  59  83  58 /  10  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    84  63  86  64 /  10  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  64  87  63 /  10  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     85  66  87  64 /  20  10  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      83  61  85  62 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  83  59  85  59 /  10  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        84  60  86  58 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     85  63  87  63 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  62  87  62 /  10  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         85  62  86  61 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      84  62  86  61 /  20  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59








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