Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 181759 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1159 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017
Updated for 18z aviation discussion.
Upper low continues to move east of the area with only a small
area of light rain impacting KPBF for another hour or so. Cloud
cover across the state eroding from the northwest, though clouds
will likely linger in southern and eastern areas. Expect flight
conditions to deteriorate overnight into Sunday morning as low
level moisture returns with low clouds filling in and some fog
developing. Some slow improvement expected between 15-18z Sunday.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 519 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
Some MVFR or briefly lower flight conditions will be seen through
this morning...with some occasional improvements this afternoon.
Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA will be possible...with
VCSH mentioned at all sites. However...HOT and ADF may see some
TSRA nearby before noon. No widespread improvements will be seen
until Sun daytime...with some low clouds and patchy fog possible
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 239 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Some SHRA are ongoing across portions of the NERN CWA as a
weak...but closed upper level low rotates slowly over the state this
morning. There are also some new SHRA developing over far WRN
portions of the CWA and just west into east central OK. Near term
high-res model guidance has been picking up on these areas of SHRA
for several runs this evening/morning...so have best POPs in these
areas of the CWA through midday as the activity shifts east/NE.
Chances for rain decrease by this afternoon and especially this
evening as the closed upper low moves east of the state.
Dry conditions will then be seen for the rest of this Sat night and
for much of Sun as a fairly amplified upper ridge moves east over
the state. SRLY SFC flow will continue...and temps will likely warm
well into the 60s and 70s...even as cloud cover begins to lift back
over the state on Sun ahead of the next storm system.
A larger scale upper trough will approach the state from the west
late in the short term period...with intensifying SSW flow aloft
over the region. Gulf moisture will increase substantially for Sun
night..and precip chances will increase as scattered to widespread
SHRA and some TSRA are forecast. This storm system will be slow to
move east over the state...with the potential for scattered to
widespread SHRA/TSRA to continue into the start of the long term
period on Mon.
LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
Long wave energy will be moving eastward across the plains early in
this period. Precipitation forecasts reflect the relative slow, but
progressive nature of this system. Late in the period, shorter
amplitude energy, and associated surface reflection will move east
towards the mid-mississippi valley region. Moisture return across
the mid south is expected to be limited with this system. Well
above normal temperatures are expected during this period.