Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 011142
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
DECAYING AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH TO KHRO AND KBPK OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE TERMINALS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WILL
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH SUNSET.
ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...

WELL...THE MCS THAT WAS LOCATED IN KANSAS A COUPLE HOURS AGO HAS
CONTINUED ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS AND IS SET TO ENTER NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO. AS A RESULT...HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LATE MORNING
IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. DID NOT MESS WITH THE 18Z-00Z
TIME FRAME IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES BECAUSE THAT WILL BE DOMINATED
BY BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY THIS MCS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
TACKLE THAT PROBLEM. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A SIZABLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TURNING
TO THE EAST WITH TIME...BUT IT MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SCRAPE
THE NRN ROW OF COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS AFTER DAYBREAK. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER RAINFALL MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING OR
NOT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUT OUT BY THIS COMPLEX WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE FOCAL POINTS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...WHICH AGAIN
WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...AN UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH OF MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH FROM THIS
SFC LOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF
KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
HELP PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT TERRIBLY FAR SOUTH...CONVECTION
WILL FIRE ALONG IT AND THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE IN THE NORTH BUT MCS
ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY MAKE IT WELL INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SO HAVE LEFT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE STATE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A CONTINUATION OF GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ALL
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THAT A
BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED.

SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK UPPER
RIDGE KEEPING AT THE VERY LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW
FAR THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT INTO THE STATE. REGARDLESS...ONLY CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCES CAN BE JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TO HIGH...ESPECIALLY THE MAV/MEX. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF NUMBERS BUT WILL UNDERCUT THESE BY
A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  73  89  72 /  20  20  30  30
CAMDEN AR         93  74  92  74 /  10  10  20  20
HARRISON AR       89  71  87  71 /  60  30  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  74  91  74 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     91  73  92  74 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      90  73  91  74 /  10  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  72  88  72 /  60  30  40  30
NEWPORT AR        91  73  90  73 /  10  20  30  30
PINE BLUFF AR     91  73  92  74 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  73  91  73 /  10  20  30  20
SEARCY AR         91  73  91  73 /  10  20  30  20
STUTTGART AR      91  73  91  73 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56





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