Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 212332
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.AVIATION...

Last of the isolated showers and thunderstorms have begun to
dissipate with clear skies forecast for the overnight hours. Winds
during the overnight will be out of the southwest and light
tonight with some patchy fog developing before sunrise.

On Saturday clear skies will give way to scattered cumulus between
4000 and 5000 feet. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may
once again be possible on Saturday...generally across extreme
southeast Arkansas...but confidence that it will impact a terminal
is too low to include in the TAF at this time.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017
)

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through Saturday
morning.

There will be a mix of clouds and sun this
afternoon, with scattered cumulus between 4000 and
5000 feet. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
over central/southern Arkansas. It will be mostly clear
tonight, with a few patches of fog toward dawn Saturday.

Winds will be south/southwest at 6 to 12 mph this afternoon,
and light and variable tonight. (46)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Ridge of high pressure will weaken a bit and shift to the west
this weekend. This will allow a weak cold front to approach from
the north. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are in
the forecast, especially on Sunday.

Excessive heat will continue ahead of the front, at least on
Saturday. A Heat Advisory is posted over northern and central
Arkansas. On Sunday, more clouds and better chances of
precipitation should keep heat indices below advisory criteria.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
While the upper ridge will be situated over the Rockies Sunday
night, it will eventually slide back to the east on Monday, where it
appears it will remain rooted through the remainder of the long
term. It does not look incredibly hot at this time as a couple of
strong shortwave troughs will pass eastwards across the northern
United States and help to keep the ridge at bay initially, in
addition to rain chances and cloud cover during the first part of
the long term. Still, persistent southerly flow and a building ridge
late in the period will mean that around or slightly below normal
temperatures on Monday and Tuesday, will climb back above normal by
the latter half of next week.

As far as rain chances go, MCS activity to the north of Arkansas on
Sunday should yield a weak boundary across the forecast area by late
Sunday night and into Monday. This will be a focus for shower and
thunderstorms through the first half of the week. Expect to see
scattered convection Monday and Tuesday afternoons, but with less
chances for Wednesday onward as high pressure reestablishes control
over Arkansas weather.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Perry-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-
Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.


Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Bradley-Calhoun-
Clark-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Lincoln-Ouachita-Pike.

&&

$$


Aviation...65


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