Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 190520 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1120 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

MVFR/IFR conds wl prevail thru much of the PD. Areas of light
rain/drizzle and patchy fog wl be common into Thu mrng. Some
locations can expect periods of LIFR conds as well. Assocd low pres
sys wl shift E of AR late in the PD, with MVFR cigs persisting.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 236 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017)

Long Term...Friday night through Wednesday

The long term period has a decent amount of uncertainty. The overall
pattern early on is roughly agreed upon in the models, with notable
differences in the details. However model solutions diverge greatly
early Monday morning onward.

In general broad upper troughing will be in place across the western
United States Friday night with a couple of shortwave troughs
lifting northeast from the central plains, and another heading our
direction across the desert southwest. The latter will intensify in
to a strong cutoff low that will traverse the northern parts of the
Gulf Coast states late Saturday through Monday morning. Friday night
and early Saturday morning may indeed be dry across much of the
state but the aforementioned southern stream shortwave will spread
rainfall back into, at least, the southern parts of the forecast
area after daybreak Saturday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
will follow Saturday evening through Sunday morning as the center of
the developing upper low moves over the Arklatex region, with
lingering showers lasting into Sunday night as the system departs.

Beyond Sunday night, the forecast becomes uncertain. Some guidance
keeps a zonal pattern over the southern half of the United States
with several ripples in the to keep rain chances going, while others
develop a high amplitude upper pattern with high pressure and
dry/sunny conditions in Arkansas. Given the uncertainty, kept the
forecast dry from Monday morning onward for now as any timing
changes in the wetter guidance would mean significant changes in
when to go with wet/dry conditions. Also played temperatures middle
of the road as well.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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