Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 161141 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY SURROUNDING A
STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. MOST CLOUDS WILL BE BETWEEN
5000 AND 10000 FEET. TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER...CLOUDS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THIS MORNING...WITH SOME CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NORTH UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 9 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING A WEAK FRONT WORK THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY...AND BRINGING A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WED AND THU. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING IT
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE NEXT
LEGITIMATE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW SPARK OFF SOME RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COULD PERHAPS
SEE SOME UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON BOTH WED AND
THU GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISPLACED
TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH THE REMNANTS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING...AND WILL PHASE WITH THE
REMNANT TROPICAL ENERGY DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS...AND
AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SHARP TROUGH
AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL BE ON THE HORIZON IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DATA IS SHOWING THE FRONT GOING THROUGH...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  61  79  62 /  20  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         87  67  88  68 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       74  62  78  62 /  20  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    85  66  85  67 /  20  10  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  65  85  67 /  20  10  20  40
MONTICELLO AR     87  67  87  68 /  20  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      85  65  86  66 /  20  10  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  61  78  61 /  20  20  30  40
NEWPORT AR        76  60  80  62 /  20  10  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     86  65  86  67 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  65  84  66 /  20  10  20  40
SEARCY AR         81  63  82  64 /  20  10  20  40
STUTTGART AR      83  63  84  65 /  20  10  20  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46








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