Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 160543 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1143 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
A STRATOCU DECK COVERED THE NRN HALF OF ARKANSAS AS OF 06Z AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUE. CIGS AT KHRO
AND KBPK ARE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE MVFR/VFR TRANSITION BUT
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO AROUND 2500 FT AGL BY 10Z...AND THEN HOLD
THERE THROUGH 18Z-20Z BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS BY 00Z WED.
FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT KLIT...KHOT...AND
KADF THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 2500 FT AGL WILL SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH ARKANSAS AFTER 12Z. INCLUDED SCT025 AT THESE SITES TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CLOUDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
LEGITIMATE MVFR CIGS OCCURRING THIS FAR SOUTH IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THEM IN 06Z TAFS. THINK KPBF AND KLLQ SHOULD STAY LARGELY
CLOUD FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE TUE
MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS WERE OVER THE
UPPER MID WEST AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ELEVATED NW SURFACE FLOW WAS
BACK TO AR AT 10 TO 20 MPH. ALSO A STRATUS CLOUD DECK AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AR. A FEW LOCALS
HAVE SEEN SPRINKLES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. THE
COLDER AIRMASS WAS FILTERING IN OVER AR...TAKING THE MILD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE 60S...TO THE 40S IN THE NORTH...AND 50S
SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO THE 30S OVER NORTHERN TO CENTRAL AR
WHILE THE 40S SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 10 MPH. THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HOLD OVER
NORTH TO NE AR...AND WILL FINE TUNE FORECAST WILL LATE EVENING
UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
COLD FRONT...NOW APPROACHING NORTHWEST SECTIONS...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE BY MORNING. AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS ENEREGY IN A FAST SOUTHERN STREAM APPROACHES.
AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE
THAT OF LIQUID PHASE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE SRN STREAM
STORM SYS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY IN THE PD. THE GFS HAS
NOW ALIGNED ITSELF CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...TAKING THE
SYS S OF AR FRI INTO EARLY SAT. RAIN WL BE LIKELY OVR MUCH OF THE FA
ON FRI...WITH CHCS DCRSG FRI NGT FM THE W. CONTD WITH A MENTION OF
WINTRY PRECIP ACRS NRN AR FRI NGT. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD ADVECT INTO
PARTS OF CNTRL AR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE FRI NGT BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS. LEFT A SLGT CHC OF LINGERING PRECIP OVR ERN AR SAT MRNG.

HIGH PRES WL DOMINATE ACRS AR FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PD WITH TEMPS
RMNG AT SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL LVLS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...64



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