Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 242352
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
652 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE TUE. FOR NOW...ONLY INCLUDED MVFR
CEILINGS AT THE TWO MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS...KHOT AND KADF.
CEILINGS SHOULD EITHER BREAK OR LIFT BY 17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT

OVERALL...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

STILL HAVE AN ACTIVE PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE LOWER 48 THIS WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WYOMING MOVES EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA
TODAY...ONLY TO HAVE ANOTHER DEEPER AND STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVE
ONSHORE OUT WEST AND REPLACE IT BY MIDWEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM
HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER BENIGN. RETURN FLOW WILL
CONTINUE IN EARNEST ACROSS ARKANSAS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS IN THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY DRAWING 60F DEWPOINTS BACK
INTO ARKANSAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT TERRIBLY
WIDESPREAD...SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 6K FT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING OUT
IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE
SATURATED LAYER DEEPENS. AS SUCH...WOULD NOT BE TERRIBLE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. MORE LEGITIMATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SEEN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE
EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN UPPER LOW OUT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN ZONES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE...BUT NOT INITIALLY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPTATION ISOLATED ON TUESDAY...WITH A FRONT HELD IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FIREWORKS GET GOING AFTER THAT.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL GET A SHOVE TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG RIPPLE OF ENERGY PUNCHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
HEADS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER
THE FORECAST...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

AS THE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH...THE FRONT WILL COME TO A
HALT IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN LOUISIANA BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED...WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

YET ANOTHER SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE WEEK...WITH
GOOD CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. MORE SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR AS WELL.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND...RAINFALL COULD AVERAGE TWO TO THREE
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY MORE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...99



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